Michigan Vs. Iowa Matchups Part II

Okay here is part II- Iowa's offense vs. Michigan's defense.  This could be an interesting battle if Iowa continues to play uneven.  Michigan uses various fronts with the same players.  They can morph from a 3-4 to a 4-3 to a nickel without subs.  The key to this flexibility is #3 Stevie Brown who has been moved from defensive back to linebacker this season.  He has the athleticism and speed of a defensive back but hasn't always shown the cover ability to play defensive back.  Michigan's base front is usually a 4-3.  They flip their d-line and their linebackers depending on the offense's strong side.  So unlike Iowa where Adrian Clayborn is truly a Right Defensive End and Broderick Binns is truly a Left Defensive End that isn't the case for Michigan's D-line.  Brandon Graham is the Weakside D-end (he lines up away from the Tight end) and Craig Roh lines up on the Strong side.  When they play 3-4 Roh is the Strong Side Linebacker and stands up over the Tight end.  Jonas Mouton slides inside and Stevie Brown lines up as the other Outside linebacker.  Michigan's pass coverage is soft.  It can and should be exploited.  Greg Robinson is a veteran of both College and NFL coaching but is in his first year at Michigan.  He is trying to install a multiple scheme and has the athletes to do it.  But right now it looks like the players are unsure of their assignments and thinking too much.  The linebackers especially seem to not know what they are supposed to be doing.

LT Bryan Bulaga 79 and RT Kyle Calloway 60 Vs. WDE Brandon Graham 55 and SDE/SLB Craig Roh 88: Graham is unquestionably the best player on Michigan's defense.  He can play both the run and the pass equally well.  He is a very good pass rusher and has an explosive first step.  He seems to be natural rushing the passer from either side.  Roh is a true freshman who flashes very good speed and decent awareness for his experience.  He has good size (6'5 238) for the linebacker position but can be overwhelmed when he lines up with his hand on the ground.  I think he was splitting time Sophmore Brandon Herron 58 but against Michigan State Roh was on the field 80% of the time.  Roh impressed me the most with his ability to cover MSU's Charle Gantt one on one in the red zone in the trail position.  He made a play on the ball exhibiting very good awareness for a player his age.  He isn't much of a pass rusher.  Bulaga looked a little rusty against Arkansas State but played much better in the second half.  He will also have his first full week of practice under his belt going into this game since the Iowa State game.  Calloway was probably the best lineman against Arkansas State and needs to be on top of his game as he will be matched up either Graham or Van Bergen most of the time who are the best pass rushers for Michigan. 

LG Dace Richardson 78, C Rafael Eubanks 52, and RG Julian Vandervelde 63 Vs. DE/DT Ryan Van Bergen 53, NG Mike Martin 68, DT Renaldo Sargesse 95, DT Greg Banks 92:  Van Bergen and Martin play most of the snaps but Sargesse and Banks rotate in and usually together. Van Bergen lines up as a D-end in the 3-4 and a DT in the 4-3. Van Bergen is a very good player.  He plays tough against both the run and the pass.  He is very instinctive and seems to be one of the players who understands his role in the new defense.  I have even seen him drop a couple of times on zone blitzes.  Martin is built like a firehydrant.  He plays low and is tough to move off of the line of scrimmage.  He is a mostly a run stopper though.  Sargesse and Banks are huge but mostly role players right now.  Richardson, Eubanks and Vandervelde are coming off their worst performance since the Northern Iowa game.  All of them had moments where they completely whiffed on third down running plays.  It will be key for them to identify and execute their assignments against the multiple fronts they will face on Saturday.  Richardson alone has the physical strength to dominate these players, Eubanks and Vandervelde need to play with superior technique and that was missing last Saturday.It can't be this weekend.  Eubanks should be able to get out to Ezeh or Mouton alot when they go 3-4 and he must clean up when he gets that opportunity. 

TE Tony Moeaki 81 Vs.  SLB Stevie Brown 3:  This will only happen when Michigan lines up in their 4-3 but this may be the key to the game.  Brown is very athletic and had been their most consistent linebacker.  If Tony is on his game and can take him out it might not matter if he catches a pass.  When Michigan lines up in the 3-4 Roh will be lined up over Moeaki.  Roh covering Moeaki would seem to be a huge mismatch in terms of pure experience.  Brown has the physical skills to cover Moeaki but that seems to be his weakness.  Either way if Tony is fully healthy he should win this match up.

FB Brett Morse 36 and TE Allen Reisner 82 Vs. FS Jordan Kovacs 32 and WLB/TLB Jonas Mouton 8: Kovacs has been the suprise of Michigan's d.  He is a tough in the box safety who never seems to miss a tackle or take a bad angle.  He sounds like he should be playing for Iowa instead of Michigan as he is a walk-on and the son of a former walk-on.  I think he is very exploitable in coverage and could be very vulnerable to play action if matched up man to man to either Morse or Reisner.  Mouton looks lost in the new scheme.  He seems to just run into the line.  He looks either hurt or lazy.  I don't know which but I haven't seen anything about an injury.  No one seems to be pushing him for playing time however.  He is also undersized.  Reisner and Morse can physically dominate these guys in the run game.

TBS Adam Robinson 32 and Brandon Wegher 3 Vs. MLB Obi Ezeh 45:  Ezeh is a very solid player.  He is physically gifted but he too seems lost in the new scheme especially when they shift to the 3-4. He has good speed and can really go sideline to sideline.  He seems to play too high and tries to arm tackle too often.  Robinson and Wegher are going to have opportunities to attack the middle of the field with Ezeh as the last line between them and a huge gain.  They need to win that physical battle.  I think one of them will and I give the edge to Wegher this week.  Ezeh cannot cover either one of these guys in pass coverage. 

WRS Trey Stross 86, DJK 15, Marvin McNutt 7, Paul Chaney Jr. 26, Colin Sandeman 22, Keenan Davis 6 Vs. Donovan Warren 6, J.T. Floyd 12, and Boubacar Cissoko 33: Warren is the guy to avoid here.  He is almost as good Spievey and that is high praise coming from me, I think that Spievey may be a first rounder some day.  Warren is not afraid to play the run, either.  Floyd has taken over for the highly- touted Cissoko who was owned by Indiana.  Floyd played fairly well against MSU but he is a freshman.  He is fairly aggressive and could be vulnerable to double moves.  McNutt was the story last week but it always seems to be a different guy for Iowa every week.  This could be Stross' time as I think that Warren will cover DJK or McNutt assuming they won't be on the field at the same time.  Chaney could also have a big day if they try to cover him with Stevie Brown one on one.  Michigan's safeties are better at run support than helping over the top in pass coverage.

QB Ricky Stanzi 12 Vs. SS Troy Woolfolk 29:  Woolfolk has moved from corner to Strong Safety this season.  He is the guy who plays centerfield for them more often as not as Kovacs is better suited to play the run.  Woolfolk can play man coverage and it is important for Stanzi to recognize when he is.  When Woolfolk is out of your picture Michigan is almost always in some sort of Cover 3.  When you can see him they are in some sort of Man coverage and usually blitzing.  If I can see that KOK better.  Stanzi needs to take shots downfield to keep Kovacs out of the box and Michigan honest.  Stanzi is progressing in my opinion but still has room to improve.  This will be his toughest game mentally as he hasn't faced a defense that will move around this much.  He needs to be sharp with his reads and his passes.  Iowa will have probably have a more aggressive gameplan this week (hopefully) and he must execute it.  He cannot telegraph passes, throw into double coverage, and he needs to learn to play for the next down if nothing is there.  I think he will play his best game so far this season. 

Spud's Spin:  I think that Iowa will suprise people by coming out hot and staying that way.  Iowa's defensive line should be able to overwhelm Michigan's offensive line and pressure a talented freshman QB into turnovers.  I think that both the running game and the passing game have match ups that can be exploited and we may finally see a complete game from Iowa's offense.  For the first time all season Iowa will have all the players they can have at their disposal.  Final score Iowa 34 Michigan 17... Iowa moves to 6-0 for the first time since 1985.