Iowa Vs. Wisconsin Matchups

Just a one parter this week.  I reviewed two games for Wisconsin- Michigan State and Minnesota.  Minnesota is kind of a bad comparison for Iowa as they are transitioning from a spread to a Pro-style offense but it was what I had.  I came into this week scared to death of this game and I am still mildly frightened.  But I am left with this impression.  If Iowa loses it will be due to their own mistakes.  Wisconsin is a very young and talented team but is not close to contending for a Big Ten title yet.  They have a solid not spectacular Oline, they have a very nice pair of running backs and tight ends, and a difference making pass rusher in O'brien Scholfield.  This won't be nearly as in depth as the PSU and Michigan match ups have been because I feel that Iowa should dominate most of them.  I am only going to highlight the important ones.

79 Brian Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT VS. 50 O'Brien Scholfield SDE:  Scholfield is a beast when he rushes the passer.  He also defends the run very well for his size (6'3 242).  He has a great first step and reads the play very well almost never taking a bad angle or a false step.  Sholfield lines up with his hand on the ground or standing up when Wisconsin goes 3-4.  He usually lines up on the Tight End side and he likes to take a wide angle on obvious passing situations.  He does occasionally drop into coverage when Whisky is in the 3-4 but he is generally used as a pass rusher.  Bulaga is coming off his worst game as a pass protector.  Graham made him look silly twice and hopefully he is finally fully back in prime football shape.  Calloway has really improved his footwork and seemed to handle Graham with relative ease.  If these guys can handle Scholfield there is really no other threat to consistently provide a pass rush.  #44 Chris Borland usually rushes in the Dime package that they use but I was not impressed with Minny's Oline.  Bielema is high on starter #99 J.J. Watt - a Central Michigan transfer but again I saw nothing especially impressive. 

81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 53 Mike Taylor SLB:  Taylor lines up over the tight end in Whisy's 4-3 which is their base defense.  He or Borland are the Outside Weak LB in the 3-4 opposite of Scholfield when they go 3-4.  Moeaki outwieghs Taylor by at least 25 lbs and has tons of experience on him.  Taylor will be playing his seventh game.  Although sometimes it seems like Moeaki has only played seven games Moeaki should have a huge advantage in both phases of the game over Taylor or Wisconsin's safeties #2 Jay Alai or #21 Chris Maragos.  Moeaki is obviously Stanzi's security blanket.  Alai is the only Wisconsin player who is ballsy enough to jump a route and play out of postion.

15 DJK, 7 McNutt, 86 Stross, 22 Sandeman, 6 Davis Vs. 26 Antonio Fenelus, 10 Devin Smith and 7 Aaron Henry: This could be Wisconsin's biggest weak spot.  If they decide to throw a safety in the box and try to play man coverage I trust every one of Iowa's receivers to consistently win a matchup versus any one of these players.  Each of these guys have looked lost at times and are poor tacklers.  They are vulnerable to doulbe moves and give up big cushions.  Wisconsin plays a lot of nickel and dime coverages on third downs so these guys will be counted on to play tight coverages when they go after Iowa in blitz packages.

91 Broderick Binns LDE Vs. 67 Josh Oglesby RT:  Oglesby is a monster (6'7 329) but he is also mistake prone and slow.  He is a solid run blocker but can be had in pass protection.  QB Tolzien is a relatively stationary target and Binn's could have a field day.  Oglesby is slow to get outside and I wouldn't be suprised to see Kendricks forced to stay inside and help him on obvious passing situations.  If Wisconsin is successful between the tackles and Oglesby can lean on Binns however for play after play some of Binn's athletic advantage would be taken away.

49 A.J. Edds SLB and 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 89 Garrett Graham TE:  Graham is a stud.  He is a very good route runner and can get down the seam as well as run polished short routes.  He is a chain mover and can read coverage.  He seems to have a very good relationship with Tolzien and is thrown to more than any other player in this offense, possibly 45- 50 % of the throws.  He is definately Tolzien's security blanket.  He is not a great run blocker but he is adequate at sealing his defender on counters and lead plays which is 50 to 60% of Whisy's run offense.  This will be the first time in a while that Edds actually gets to sniff the line of scrimmage.  He really needs to stand out in this game as this will be a game that NFL scouts use to evaluate him on.  His ability to sift through traffic and make tackles in the run game and set the edge and funnel runs back to the inside will be key.  Wisconsin runs a lot of two receiver formations so Edds may end up outside of the box 50 % of first and second downs.  Hunter will then be responsible for Graham initially in the passing game.  I really think Hunter's pass coverage has improved but he still lags behind Angerer and Edds here.  He will get some help from Greenwood or Sash here.  How Iowa covers Graham and if they choose to man up Wisconsin and play 8 in the box could be the key to the game defensively.  My guess is they won't and it will be business as usual.  I would prefer that they mix it up occasionally and send the LBs occasionally as Tolzien hasn't responded well to pressure.  Both Edds and Hunter could record a sack if Iowa would disguse a blitz.

43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. 32 John Clay TB and 30 Zach Brown TB:  Angerer could pile up tackle totals in the high teens.  What matters is where he makes the tackles near or behind the line of scrimmage or seven or eight yards down the field.  Clay is a big physical runner who always seems to fall forward.  He is patient and really waits for his hole to develop.  He doesn't break as many tackles as you would think for a runner his size and if he is engaged in the backfield he doesn't have the short are quickness to get out of trouble.  He is a load between the tackles when they get it going however and seems at his best when they run the ball three or four times in a row.  Brown is more of a change of pace runner who does his best work on the edges.  He can run between the tackles but that isn't where his strength lies.  He has good feet and can make a tackler or two miss.  He has been fumble prone this season.  Brown is the third down back and a decent receiving option.

9 Sash SS and 30 Greenwood FS Vs. 16 Scott Tolzien QB:  Tolzien was the suprise winner of Wisconsin's QB derby this season.  He has been pretty good but faltered a bit last week throwing two pick 6s.  What I have noticed about him is that he makes solid decisions, he looks to make the easy throw, is pretty accurate and is at his best on playaction.  He gets happy feet is if he is pressured, he is not very mobile although he did have a designed run for over 30 yards against Minny, he doesn't have a strong arm, and he seems to have small hands and could be prone to fumbles.  If Sash and Greenwood play disciplined and don't get burned by playaction they could get themselves a turnover or two.  Iowa cannot afford for them to get sucked in on a playfake and get burned deep.  Wisconsin has only one real burner in #85 David Gilreath, although the starters #1 Nick Toon and #6 Isaac Anderson have decent size, Sash and Greenwood need to rely on the front 7 to play solid run defense and defend the pass first.  Wisconsin has been turnover prone and Iowa's style of defense takes advantage of that.  Tolzien is only making his 7th career start and is coming off his first dissappointing game at this level.  I like Iowa's chances.

Some Terrible Predictions:
1. Between the two teams the tight ends (Moeaki, Reisner, Graham, Kendricks) will combine for over 25 catches.
2. Iowa will hold Clay under 100 yards.  Zach Brown is the scarier runner to me in this game.
3. Iowa will have 5 sacks in this game.  The key will be if they can force fumbles along with the sacks.
4. Iowa will give up a rushing TD for the second consecutive week.
5. Wegher will lead the team in rushing this week.

Spud's Spin:  This was the scariest game on the schedule for me all season.  To me it was scarier even than OSU because this game is viewed as more winnable.  However the more I watched of Wisconsin the less scary this game became.  Wisconsin is going to be tough as hell next year.  And this will be tough this season.  But it seems like as tough as this schedule has been it has also laid out nicely in a strange way.  Wisconsin plays almost the same base defenses as Michigan without the safety in the box.  I suspect Iowa will see a safety in the box.  Wisconsin doesn't have a Donovan Warren, although they do have a Brandon Graham basically.  Iowa traditionally shuts down the run and I am not sure that they can against Wisconsin but I am not sure they need to completely stop it just keep it to small chunks and stop it for losses occasionally.  What they need to do is continue to be dominant against the pass.  Force turnovers and play the field position game.  Wisconsin is terrible on special teams and commits stupid penalties.  Hopefully this continues on Saturday.  I was actually going to predict a loss.  I have changed my mind- Iowa 27 Wisconsin 13 no pick 6s for Ricky.