In part one I broke down MSU's offensive tendencies. I expect to see less of traditional power I sets and I formations from MSU in this game and more Shotgun in this game. I don't think that MSU will be able to run the ball in this game. Wisconsin had a much better run blocking Oline than MSU and their best running back (Glenn Winston) is out for the year with a torn ACL. Here are the rest of the matchups for this game.
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 57 Rocco Cironi LT SR 6'6 309 and 59 D.J. Young RT JR 6'5 310, 77 J'Michael Deane RT JR 6'5 312: Cironi is a 3 year starter and a pretty solid player. He is better as a run blocker than in pass protection. He struggled against Wisconsin in pass protection. Young and Deane are both inexperienced and have both moved from the defensive line. They are both athletic and better at this point at run blocking. Both have really struggled when left on an island in pass protection and have benefitted from having a tight end left in to help them in pass protection. Clayborn and Binns have excelled at rushing the passer and have done a pretty nice job in run support. They have done very good at pursuit when the run isn't there way. It is important for them to recognize when #7 Keith Nichol comes in at QB for MSU as he is a running threat from the shotgun formation. They will have to read the option on the QB- read play. This will be the 8th week in a row they would face that as Wisconsin brought in Kurt Phillips in for a series to try it after Monte Ball's TD.
Spud's Spin: Big Edge to the Hawks here. Clayborn may be the most complete Defensive End in the Big Ten even though he doesn't have the flashy stats that Graham, Heyward, or Scholfield do. He is more stout against the run and affects more plays than than any of those players. Binns just continues to improve every week and is the best natrural pass rusher Iowa has had since Matt Roth. He should cause either RT he is facing a lot of issues this weekend.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs. 67 Joel Foreman LG SO 6'4 306, 65 Joel Nitchman C SR 6'4 296, and 64 Brendan Moss RG SR 6'7 284: Foreman and Nitchman are returning starters and very good run blockers. They are also pretty solid in pass protection. When MSU is having protection breakdowns this season it is usually from the edges. Moss had only started one game coming into this season and had played mostly tackle before this season. The successful runs I have seen for them have been on his side. He has the ability to pull and is deadly on the second level. He is very athletic for a guard. He can be manhandled however and isn't a good matchup for someone as strong as Christian Ballard, who will be lined up across from him. Ballard and Klug just continue to plug along disrupting schemes. Daniels was a revelation last week making the most of his opportunity and hopefully playing his way into some kind of a rotation. He really plays low and was the most disruptive Hawkeye on the field in his first appearance in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Again this is just not a good matchup for MSU. They really struggled against their only comparable opponent Wisconsin and I think Iowa has a more talented Dline. If Iowa continues to rotate Daniels in and give Klug and Ballard breathers and keep them both fresh for the entire game this could be and even bigger strength for the Hawks.
49 A.J. Edds SLB and 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 83 Charlie Gantt TE JR 6'5 248, 88 Brian Linthicum TE SO 6'5 248, and 85 Garrett Celek TE SO 6'5 243: Gantt is the bellcow of this group. He killed Iowa last year but is a little forgotten this season. He has also been asked to stay in and block more than he had to last season given some of the pass protection issues they have been experiencing. Gantt is probably the third best TE in the Big Ten after Moeaki and Graham from Whisky. He can run any route and do something with the ball in his hands. Linthicum and Celek are better receivers than blockers but they are adequate run blockers. They are on the field alot. Edds is going to get a chance to play over a tight end some against MSU but they really like to run "twin" formations so he should be on a slot most of the time. Hunter has to get his hands on Gantt and disrupt his routes and tackle well when he is asked to cover him.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This is closer than I would like it to be. If Hoyer was still the QB I might favor the Sparty here but Cousin's doesn't seem to look for his tight ends nearly as often as Hoyer did. It is really important for Edds and Hunter to shed blocks from the TEs in this game in order to control the running game as they like to run outside zones with 2 tight end formations and for Edds to tackle well vs. the slot screen in the open field as that seems to be MSU's signature play.
CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 25 Blair White SR 6'2 200, 3 B.J. Cunningham SO 6'2 212, 2 Mark Dell Jr 6'2 197, 82 Keeshawn Martin SO 5'11 185, and 16 Chris D. Rucker SO 5'10 174: Blair White and B.J. Cunningham are the most dangerous players in this group. White is coming off an incredible game against Northwestern where he caught 12 balls for 182 yards. He runs very good routes, understands coverage, and doesn't drop passes. He has a knack for making tacklers miss. Cunningham is dangerous after the catch. He breaks tackles and runs pretty decent routes and has above average speed. Dell is the other main cog in the spread looks that they run. He is mostly a possession guy. He doesn't drop passes and is a very good blocker. He also seems to be a pretty good leader and understand coverage as well. Martin and Rucker are fast but are just "guys" right now. I think they are just in to give the top 3 a breather right now. Speivey is having the best season I have ever seen an Iowa CB have. He is a physical tackler and truly a shutdown corner. Prater is really coming on and almost baited Tolzien into another pick last week like he did in the Penn State game. He has also really done a nice job in run support.
Spud's Spin: Push. I would give the nod to MSU if I knew how smart their OC was but I don't. The fact that they only scored 24 on Northwestern after both of their starting safeties were hurt early in the first half makes me think that he isn't real bright. Wooten was also hurt for Northwestern and they still generated a pretty good pass rush. If he is smart enough to keep Sash and Spievey on the same side and not throw in that direction than edge MSU. If he isn't Edge Iowa.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. 22 Larry Caper FR 5'11 215, 4 Edwin Baker FR 5'9 200, and 24 Caulton Ray R.FR 5'9 195: Caper has taken over the #1 tailback spot after the seaon ending injury to Glenn Winston. Caper has decent vision and runs with some decent power- he will break arm tackles. He runs pretty tall and could be fumble prone. Baker saw his first significant action last week as he had his redshirt stripped. He also runs with some pretty decent power and showed a nice burst hitting the hole. He doesn't show the same vision as Caper but doesn't have the same amount of carries as Caper so far. Caulton is not used as much and is pretty much a speed guy. MSU's TBs don't seem to be a factor in the passing game. Angerer is coming off of his best game of the season. He owned John Clay in the second half. None of the guys he is facing this week will have the power of Clay and Angerer could have a field day if MSU tries to stick to the run. Angerer also showed nice acceleration on his limited blitzes.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa Angerer sees this running scheme every weekday in practice and should be able to read his keys in his sleep. If he can sift through the traffic he could pile up a career high in tackles for losses. I just don't know if MSU is going to try to run the ball very much. Angerer is also very solid in pass coverage and does a very good job of getting depth in pass coverage and has the speed to make up for a false step in case of play action. Caper is the MSU Tailback most likely to make a difference in this game.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs QBs 8 Kirk Cousins SO 6'3 202 and 7 Kieth Nichol SO 6'2 215: Cousins and Nichol were rotating for most of the season but Cousins seems to be the man now. Cousins is pretty much a drop back passer. He is fighting an injured ankle but he looked about as mobile as normal vs. NU. Cousins has a nice accurate arm, nice pocket awareness, he reads coverage well, and he has nice touch. He doesn't try to force the ball into tight spots. He doesn't seem to have elite arm strenght, the ball seems to float on him and he seems to have a funky delivery. He is also as slow as the minute hand on the time clock at your work on a Friday afternoon. I don't know how he ran for a 40 yard gain against Michigan. Nichol is the runner. He can throw but he is in there to add the run element to their spread attack. He isn't nearly the passer that Cousins is. He is also battling an ankle issue and didn't play vs NU. Therefore his effectiveness is greatly limited. I don't expect to see him.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. This game could come down to how patient Cousins' will be. If he can be content to throw nice easy passes against Iowa's zone and slowly march the ball down the field and stay away from Amari Spievey he could win the game for MSU. If he is content to throw the ball away on third and long and let their punter do his job he could win the game. If he tries to force the ball down the field over Iowa's linebackers and under Iowa's safeties he will be feeding the vultures. Sash and Greenwood will get interceptions. He doesn't have a strong enough arm to throw deep outs against Iowa's D and Iowa's LBs get such good depth on thier drops that he can't really attack the deep middle either. The long throw against Iowa is a turnover waiting to happen for him at this point in his career.
Some terrible predictions:
1. Niether team rushes for 100 total yards.
2. Ricky Stanzi throws for his first 300 yard game.
3. No Iowa receiver goes over 100 yards.
4. Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns combine for 5 sacks.
5. B.J. Cunningham leads MSU in receiving yards totaling over 100.
It would be nice for Iowa to come out hot but obviously that isn't necassary for them to win. I understand that the weather is supposed to be bad and that is supposed to favor the running game, but I just don't see either team's defense allowing the other to run. I think both teams will come out passing. Iowa's Oline can pass protect. Michigan State's can't.
Spud's Spin: Final Score Iowa 28 MSU 17
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