Indiana comes into this game 4 and 4. They are coming off of a crushing loss to Northwestern blowing a 28 to 3 lead with 7:32 left to go in the 2nd quarter and have lost four of their last five. The only Big Ten win they possess is over Illinois (27- 14 in Bloomington) who is melting down this season. They were in the game versus Michigan. The only game I remembered to dvr was Northwestern. I have seen bits and pieces of the Michigan, Western Michigan, and Ohio State games.
Offensively Indiana runs a spread based scheme using a "Pistol" Shotgun set. The QB sets up four yards behind the center and the TB is directly behind him. This allows for more traditional running schemes and "downhill" style running plays and more convincing playaction out of shotgun snaps. They use two Tight Ends 30 to 40% of the time. They also use a lot of 3 wide receiver and 4 wide receiver sets regardless of the down. They really like the "Trips" formation to the wide side of the field. This season the Hoosiers most explosive plays have come from the running game with TB Darius Willis having the most success. Demetrius McCray also has a 56 yard TD run. In short yardage situations the Hoosiers bring in a hybrid of the "Wildcat" consisting of two extra lineman, 2 TE, and a WR and it is quarterbacked by #5 WR Mitch Evans. Evans can throw but usually they are running a form of the read option out of this formation. They have a couple of variations of this formation but the results generally consist of little to no gain. The passing game is based on short to mid range throws and is looking to get the receiver open with the ability to get yards after the catch. They like to flood one side of the field and give the QB an easy read with 3 options within his vision. The three top receivers account for 66% of the teams receptions. The runningbacks have not been involved in the passing game this season. They don't attack down the field often.
Defensively the Hoosiers run a base 4-3. Against Northwestern who ran 4- 5 wide sets all of the time they moved their FS Nick Polk to WLB and played back up Collin Taylor at FS. They usually rush 4 and play zone coverages. They almost always had their two safties playing deep coverage but I haven't seen them play a power running scheme. Indiana has two very good D-ends and they must be accounted for. Kirlew especially is very good and they move him inside on obvious passing downs. Indiana doesn't have a clear cut starter opposite of Ray Fisher at Corner and this could be a potential spot for Iowa to attack. Starting WLB Will Patterson is also injured but may try to play. Mayberry and Replogle are decent linebackers but make most of their plays beyond the line of scrimmage.
Now for the Matchups:
79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 57 Jammie Kirlew 6'3 263 SR RE, 92 Greg Middleton 6'3 285 LE SR, 51 Terrance Thomas 6'1 263 JR LE: Kirlew is the star of this group. He is relentless and athletic. He lines up most of the time at right end but he and Middleton will swap on occasion. Against Northwestern on Third and Longs Kirlew moved inside and Terrance Thomas played left end although he is not listed on this weeks depth chart. Kirlew uses his arms well on the pass rush and has a variety of moves. He is also stout against the run although he doesn't possess the elite quickness of either Graham or Scholfield who haven given Iowa fits. Middleton has some impressive physical skills but he takes plays off. He looks disinterested if the play isn't a pass or a run to his side. He doesn't pursue if the play is away from him. He if very strong and can set the edge in the run game. He can be run out of the play on the pass rush. Thomas was a non factor when he was in the game. Bulaga has not had the year that many have expected him to, but he has had a lot to overcome with injuries in camp and an in- season illness. He played very well last week in both phases and may be getting his conditioning and timing back. Calloway has been rock- solid most of the season and continued his strong play last week. He draws the easier of the two assignments in Middleton but neither is in for an easy day.
For those of you unfamiliar with these articles I post as spudhawk and Spud's Spin: is my projection of what will happen in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Bulaga and Calloway are just rounding into form and have faced tougher competition in the last three weeks. Kirlew is a beast and Middleton is physically talented but I think the fight may be out of Indiana after last weeks debacle. They are very good pass rushers but I have a feeling Iowa is going to want to pound the ball to see if they can. Look for more short side zone running plays.
77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs.DTS 98 Adam Replogle 6'3 265 FR, 97 Larry Black Jr. 6'2 312 R.FR, 69 Mick Mentzer 6'4 304 R.FR, and 75 Nicholas Sliger 6'3 295 R.FR: These guys are all very young and with the exception of Adam Replogle, the younger brother of linebacker Tyler, very big. They are also very inexperienced and can be pushed around despite their size. They don't seem to rush the passer at all. Replogle and Black are listed as the starters but they all rotate in an equal number of snaps it seems. It doesn't seem to be situational. I think that Eubanks is coming off of his best two games as a Hawkeye. I have been tough on him so far this season but he has really stepped it up in the last two games. Reiff and Vandervelde have struggled in the run game at times this season but have held up pretty well in pass protection. Both will be outweighed by everyone, except Replogle, significantly in this game but could have the strength edge due to time with Coach Doyle.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This could be the weekend that Iowa's run game get's fat and happy. Even missing Robinson and Richardson, Iowa's interior should be able to win at the line of scrimmage in both phases- run and pass. Eubanks needs to be aware of Mayberry and Tyler Replogle blitzing but they almost always show when they are coming.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 46 Tyler Replogle 6'2 231 JR SLB: Replogle is a physical football player and he has decent range. He gets decent depth in his zones and is rarely asked to cover one on one. He has trouble shedding blocks though and Moeaki has twenty lbs. and 3 inches of height on him. Indiana should take a page out of MSU's playbook and not line him up right over T.M. That freed up Gordon to flow to the ball and forced Moeaki to go out and seek him, not fire out of his stance and drive him off the snap. This is Replogle's first season as a full time starter but he has had some impressive games including a 19 tackle perfomance last season against Purdue.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Moeaki has a huge edge in physical ability and experience. He should win in both phases blocking and if they are matched in the pass game. If they are matched one on one in pass coverage with no safety help Stanzi must find him. I think it would be more likely that it would be Polk or Thomas but I still like Moeaki in any match up versus this defense in the pass game.
36 Brett Morse FB and 82 Allen Reisner TE Vs. WLBs Will Patterson 6'1 236 SR and Justin Carrington 6'0 225 SR: Will Patterson is battling a hand or arm injury. In the Tuesday press conference Coach Lynch was non-commital about playing Patterson. He is a three year starter and a difference maker. Carrington is listed as the starter on the depth chart and brings a lot of speed to the position having moved there from tailback. I never saw him in the game versus Northwestern. Carrington has some experience and is in his third year playing the position but had only one career start entering the season.
Spud's Spin: Push if Patterson plays and edge Iowa if Carrington is the starter. Both Reisner and Morse have been flying under the radar for the Hawks this season but are run blocking at a very high level. But Patterson is very good in pass coverage and diagnoses very well. Carrington is athletic but I don't think he has the experience to win the matchup against these two in the run game and could be vulnerable to playaction passes.
WRs 15 DJK 86 Trey Stross Marvin McNutt, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 7 Ray Fisher 5'9 185 SR, 23 Adrian Burks 6'0 175 JR, 22 Andre LaGrone 6'0 185 SO, 6 Richard Council 6'1 201 JR, and 10 Donnel Jones 5'10 210 SO: This is the weak point of the Hoosiers. Fisher has successfully tranisitioned from receiver to corner and is a suprisingly sound tackler. He is very good in both man and zone coverage. His biggest problem is his size. Jones was the starter before suffering an injury and is unlikely to go. Council started versus Northwestern and was repeatedly victimized by Andrew Brewer on third downs. He gave a healthy cushion when Indiana elected to Blitz and gave up completion after completion. Burks was put on the #1 line this week on the depth chart but Lynch said that there would be competition this week in practice and didn't rule out Council regaining his starting role. DJK, Stross, and McNutt each had huge catches in the game winning drive in the MSU game and should be feeling confident about this game. Something else that I would like to point out is although Iowa hasn't broken a long run it isn't this units' fault. These guys have been blocking very, very well. Colin Sandeman, also, should be singled out and even though he can't go, he has done and outstanding job of run blocking all season. He is usually the Flanker when Iowa runs the Two Tight I formation and he has executed all season.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Iowa should win in both phases. If they get single covered a double move could equal six. Iowa should attack downfield if either of the safeties appear in the box. If they get a big cushion a broken tackle on a short pass could still be a big play. I forsee a big day for DJK.
TBs 3 Brandon Wegher and 25 Paki O'Meara Vs. 43 Matt Mayberry 6'2 244 SR: Mayberry is a very solid run defender and has good size. He takes on and sheds lineman well. He diagnoses the run and fills a hole very well and can make a tackle with someone on his hip. He struggles in pass coverage and doesn't have good makeup speed. He is vulnerable to playaction and struggles getting good depth in pass coverage. He is not a natural pass rusher- thinking his way to the QB. He is a physical tackler. Wegher will get his chance to be the man this week as Robinson is likely done until the Bowl game. I thought he had his best game of the season last week, running more patient and hitting the hole with an incredible burst. His screen pass was a thing of beauty. I would love to see more of the 5 wide formation this week versus this team. He is a matchup nightmare for this defense. Nick Polk is the only defender who has a prayer of defending him. Paki gets his chance to get back into the mix. He has done a nice job on special teams and will probably get 8 to 10 carries in this game. I think he will do okay, but he is the only Hawk tailback to lose a fumble this season. He better not do that this week or we could actually see Rogers or Brown take off their redshirts.
Spud's Spin: Edge Indiana. As good as I think Wegher is I haven't seen him carry the mail. Mayberry is a tough and smart football player who is going to hit Wegher repeatedly. If Wegher goes down that leaves Iowa with a Walk-on who hasn't carried the ball since week one and two true freshman who haven't played a down all season. My guess would be a lot of Brett Morse and two tight ends. Lets hope Wegher stays healthy.
12 Ricky Stanzi QB VS. 8 Nick Polk 6'0 225 FS and 20 Austin Thomas 6'2 221 SS: Polk is a very good athlete and will probably play on Sundays. Thomas is a very good college football player and a thorn in Iowa's side. They are both smart and versatile and can play the other's responsibilities. Thomas isn't extremely fast but makes up for it by diagnosing plays and reading the qb very well. He is a hitter. He causes turnovers. Polk is very fast and also packs a punch. He also caught a pass last week that might have been the longest pass play for the Hoosiers this season. Stanzi needs to be aware of these guys on the field and where they line up and what it means. He can't let them bait him into bad audibles or into throwing into double coverage. This will probably be the best safety tandem he will face all season. He must look these guys off before throwing deep.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I think that Stanzi is playing his best football right now and coming off of his best three game stretch of his career. Something he doesn't get enough credit for is his audibilizing and he has done a very good job of that this season. Even though his numbers weren't pretty against MSU his reads were usually the correct one and I can live with physical mistakes or great plays by the other team. He attacked the weak points of the MSU defense all game and they rose to the occasion. I am generally hard on KOK but so far this season he has done a nice job of gameplanning and getting plays in on time- giving Stanzi time to look over the defense and get out of bad plays, something that hasn't always been the case. I think Iowa is going to emphasize the running game against Indiana but that could lead to some big plays for Ricky in the playaction game. I think that it will.
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 76 Roger Saffold 6'5 306 LT SR and 73 James Brewer 6'8 338 RT JR: Saffold is entering is 3rd year as a starter and is a pretty solid pass blocker. He did a pretty good job on NW's Corey Wooten but he had tight end help some of the time. He generated a pretty decent push in the first half in the run game but didn't do much that was noticable in the second half in the run game. Brewer is huge. He is a very good run blocker if he gets his hands on his man. He has a tendency to overextend and get off balance. He has decent feet but can be beaten around the edge. Most of Indiana's big runs this season have come on his side. Clayborn has owned just about everyone he has faced this season. He is Iowa's most dominant DE since Matt Roth. Binns may be Iowa's smartest and fundamentally sound DE ever. I have never seen a d-lineman knock down so many passes or be in the passing lane. I also love where they are playing him on field goals and extrapoints.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. This is a no doubter. If Northwestern was generating pressure with a 4 man rush than Indiana is in trouble here. Clayborn and Binns are going to be in the backfield more often than Darius Willis.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs 70 Justin Pagan 6'5 311 LG SO, 60 Will Matte 6'2 284 C R.FR, 59 Mike Reiter 6'2 300 RG SR: This is another unit that lacks a ton of experience. They have been playing pretty well and Pagan looks like he could be a very solid player. Reiter and Pagan do a lot of pulling on running plays and are athletic enough to get out and reach linebackers. When they down block they do a decent job of sealing and then look to get downfield and hit someone on the next level. Matte is pretty quick and a decent run blocker. They are all adequate for what they are asked to do in pass protection which is protect for about 3 seconds. If Chappell holds onto the ball any longer he is usually in trouble. They do a poor job of selling playaction pass. Ballard is coming off of his best game at his new position. On almost every play on my game chart I have something positive written down about him. Klug also played his usual quietly good game. I thought I would see more of Daniels but I don't have him written in on my notes other than goalline but I could have missed a rotation.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Edge Iowa. Ballard's strength and explosiveness will be too much for Pagan and Matte to handle. Klug and Ballard could pile up tackles for losses shooting the gap when they pull their guards on running plays and I don't think they can consistently pass protect against these two.
42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. TEs 41 Max Dedmond 6'5 233 SO and 87 Troy Wagner 6'5 271: Dedmond and Wagner might as well be extra lineman. Dedmond has 13 catches in 8 games and I saw Wagner go out for one pass the entire game. Wagner is big enough to play tackle though and is a very good run blocker. He also pass protects very well and makes for an effective double-team. I would guess Clayborn should be ready to see him often. Hunter was a beast versus MSU. My favorite part of watching the recording was watching him slam into the fullback. When he keys run he attacks the line of scrimmage and destroys whoever is in his way. He also has improved on his pass coverage so much that I don't even sweat when we decide to not play Nickel anymore. I just wish he had held on to that interception because that was 6 points and would have changed the complexion of that entire game.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. Hunter is playing his best football and has the athleticism to make up for a false step in his aggressiveness to play the run. He doesn't make a lot of bad reads he just wants to hit somebody- Hard. I am not sure that Dedmond can block him and that Chappell will be looking for his tight end enough to exploit any potential weakness in Iowa's zone. And if he does it is likely a 4 yard gain.
49 A.J. Edds SLB, 19 Amari Spievey RCB, 28 Shaun Prater LCB, and 10 Willie Lowe NCB Vs. WRs 88 Damario Belcher 6'5 209 SO, 2 Tandon Doss 6'3 197 SO, 1 Terrance Turner 6'3 207 JR , 5 Mitch Evans 6'3 197 JR, 15 Matt Ernest 6'2 187 SO: Edds is going to be lined up over a slot receiver pretty much the entire day. I didn't see a balanced formation from Indiana the entire day against Northwestern. Belcher is the Split or outside receiver. Doss and Turner usually play the slots. Belcher reminds me of a slower less explosive James Hardy. He is really tall and can break tackles. Doss and Turner are very quick and have good size. They aren't polished route runners yet and they rely upon their athleticism to get open. They are also looking to catch and run. These three are the guys who are on the field most of the time. Evans comes in when they go 4 wide. Ernest is supposed to be the fastest guy on the team but I never noticed him or saw a ball thrown his way. After struggling some early in the season Iowa has become a very good tackling team. It will be important for that to continue Saturday as Indiana is going to try to create one on one match ups for these guys to exploit. Edds and Spievey are playing at an All Big Ten level. Prater is playing very, very well especially for a true sophmore in his first year starting. Willie Lowe has also come on late in the year and is steadily progressing.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Indiana should hope they are constantly on the left hash 'cause they don't want to throw Spievey's way. If they end up on the right has they should just run one of their sweeps to the left and not worry about how many yards they get. Spievey and Sash on the same side = turnover for them.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 28 Darius Willis 6'0 218 R.FR, 27 Bryan Payton 5'9 207 SR, and 22 Demetrius McCray 5'11 200 SR: Willis has become the man. Payton and McCray occasionally spot him but Willis is the future and the now of Indiana football. He has good size, runs with power and has very good speed. If he gets a crease he is gone. He has two long TD runs including an 85 yard burst versus Michigan. They have some pretty fast guys of their own up in Ann Arbor. He is also injury prone and still inexperienced and will be facing the most physical defense he has ever seen. Payton and McCray are basically the same player. They are tough shifty runners who try to make you miss and have trouble breaking tackles. Angerer had a very good game against MSU. He played his usual good pass coverage but he is playing the run much better than I expected him to this season. He is playing much more physical than I expected and he is shedding O'lineman and making plays much better this season. He is rarely taken out of a play.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Indiana tends to throw more than pass but I think Angerer will get his share of the tackles in both phases of the game. He reads his keys as well as any linebacker in recent memory and may have the most speed of anyone to play his position ever. After the season he is having he (and the quotes) he will go down as one of the all- time great Hawkeyes.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs. 4 Ben Chappell 6'3 235 QB JR: Chappell is a traditional drop back passer. This is sort of the reason Indiana installed the "Pistol" formation. He is not mobile. He is not Kellen Lewis. He will scramble as a last resort but is more likely to throw the ball away when pressured. He does a nice job of reading the field and going through his progressions. He can look off coverage if he has time. He has a very strong arm and can squeeze the ball into tight spots and can throw the ball to the outside from the opposite hash. However he needs a clean pocket to work, he is not accurate if he is forced of his "spot." He needs his footwork to be clean and throws an ugly ball off of his back foot. He is not usually pressured into bad decisions. Sash and Greenwood have been allowed to do more this season than last. Both have blitzed some (Greenwood more than Sash) and both have played in the box. Chappell hasn't played a ton of college football and these two could really mess with his head if they line up somewhere beside 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. They really need to tackle well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. If Greenwood is completely healthy that would be a bonus but Sash is enough by himself. Chappell is a decent player but so far he hasn't beaten a decent team and the Hoosiers' were pounded by the two toughest defenses they faced- Ohio State and Virginia. If early in the game Chappell overthrows one ball over the middle Kinnick goes crazy. If he misreads one coverage when Sash or Greenwood are dropping late and throws a pick his team won't bounce back. He has to play a perfect game against a defense that bets you can't. Michigan State just used up all the luck. I almost feel sorry for him.
Some terrible predictions
1. Iowa fair catches every punt.
2. Iowa's defense scores two times.
3. Ricky Stanzi averages over 10 yards an attempt.
4. Paki O'meara will score a rushing TD
5. Indiana's only score will come on a Ray Fisher Kick off Return.
I know that this is really long. I have been doing these in two parts and if you have survived to the end of this I thank you. Here is my final prediction: Iowa 38 Indiana 13 and still no love from the national media.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Does This Win Gain Ricky the Coaching Staffs' Trust?
Since Coach Ferentz has taken over the Iowa progam the Hawkeyes have reached new heights of success. Iowa finished ranked 8th three consecutive seasons from 2002 through 2004 and played in four consecutive January Bowl games. This season is looking rosy already and Iowa still has four games left to play with only one really tough stumbling block left on the schedule- Ohio State in Columbus. Ferentz and his staff have followed the same blueprint in almost all of those seasons' a balanced offensive attack featuring a smashmouth running attack and a stifling defense that plays fundamentally sound and basic coverages. There has only been one abberation offensively- the 2004 season when Iowa was down to 5th string running back walk on Sam Brownlee and turned Drew Tate loose on the Big Ten. Iowa basically changed offenses mid-stream during that season and went pretty much 70% to a 3 wide shotgun look that relied on Tate's ability to read defenses and extend plays with his mobility and playmaking ability. That was the last time that Iowa won a Big Ten Title. Iowa just has to hang on and win three of the next four to at least win a share of the title this season.
Ricky Stanzi isn't Drew Tate. At least he isn't yet. He doesn't have Tate's ability to process information and ability to extend plays and see receivers break open downfield consistently. He isn't as accurate as Tate was (a healthy Drew Tate for people who only remember his senior year). Stanzi has some things going for him that Tate didn't. He isn't as high strung and seems impervious to pressure. He seems to be genuinely like by all of his teammates and that didn't always seem to be the case for Drew at the end of his career, although looking at the attrition around the program and some of the comments from some of his teammates of that era, that might not have been a bad thing. He is tall enough to be invited to the NFL scouting combine if he continues to improve. He also has a group of receivers at his disposal that Tate could only dream about. But Tate also seemed to have something that Stanzi doesn't yet have. The absolute trust to go out and win the game.
Stanzi is a winner, there is no doubt about that as he has started 19 games and won 16 of them. But a case could be made that Iowa has won some of those games in spite of Stanzi or that the defense won them. I don't want to make that case. In fact I want to make the case to let him do more. I feel like he turned the corner in the Arkansas State game even with the pick 6 he threw in that game. I actually think he was underutilized in that game and that we went away from the long pass for no reason at all in that game. Iowa scored early on two long passing plays and my game notes show Arkansas State was still playing 8 in the box and daring Iowa to throw the ball- playing single coverage on the outside. Stanzi could have thrown for 4 TDs in the first half and McNutt might have caught three TDs in the first half if the Hawks had kept attacking. Arky State didn't adjust or do anything to take it away, Iowa just stopped trying for that play. On the second play of first possession of the 2nd half Iowa runs the Go Route for McNutt and, cue Gary Dolphin, "Touchdown Iowa". Ricky threw 2 interceptions in that game but both were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. It was the long ball that was working all day. And that is the strength of Stanzi's game.
Quarterbacks who are percieved to win games are asked to do it at the end of games or in clutch situations. Iowa doesn't ask Stanzi to do that or they don't put him in postion to do it. I don't know if it is a matter of not trusting him or a ridiculous amount of faith in the defense. Until last Saturday the defense had been up to the task all season and they still allowed only 13 points, normally plenty enough to win you a game. Here are the reasons a couple of the reasons I don't think the "training wheels" have been taken off of Stanzi yet.
Until "The Drive" versus Michigan State, Iowa had not successfully completed a "2 minute drill"this season. At the end of the first half versus Arizona - Iowa stopped a field goal fake and took over with 2:49 left in the first half, a nice momentum swing. Brandon Wegher promptly popped off a 15 yard gain giving Iowa decent field position (their own 35) and plenty of time left to try to extend their 14- 10 lead. Stanzi competed a 7 yard pass to Wegher and then Iowa sat on the ball punting it away. Against Michigan Iowa was seemingly content to run out the clock when a Michigan time out spurred them into passing mode so they could try to run out the clock some more. They then ran three passing plays in a row, getting into field goal range on a beautifully executed flare to Brett Morse. They inexplicably picked up a delay penalty knocking Murray out of his comfort zone with Time Outs in their pocket. Murray missed the field goal.
And finally I think the Coaching Staff takes the ball out of Stanzi's hands content to let the defense win close games. This philosophy has won us 7 close games so far this season. But Iowa could have chance to put a couple games away earlier, including last Saturday's game with more aggressive playcalling. In fairness they tried to give him a chance to salt away the UNI game and Stanzi and the offense came up short, calling four pass plays out of a six play drive (including the punt and scrambles). I also found no flaws with the Arkansas State playcalling, giving them a 80+ yard field with less than 20 seconds.
But the Michigan game drove me crazy. At the time no one knew Forcier was hurt. Iowa had a 3rd and 4 from their own 39. If they had converted it Michigan was out of time outs and the game was over. Michigan was only down two and only needed a field goal to win. Iowa ran Power I zone Lead with a Fullback to Bulaga's side into a blitzing 9 man front. No numbers advantage and a run for a loss. Thank you Denard Robinson.
Against Wisconsin, Iowa had a relatively comfortable 10 point lead with 3:30 remaining. Iowa goes for it on 4th and 5. Iowa runs play action and has Allen Reisner completely alone. There is a hilarious thread on the Scout site about interpreting Kirk's smirk. Stanzi wasn't throwing the ball. If he was throwing the ball he would have stopped rolling out and just thrown the ball. Touchdown, 27 - 10 nightmares of crazy plays and onside kicks abate and you relax. Instead thank you Scott Tolzien.
Finally the Michigan State game. Iowa passes the ball on a perfectly thrown fade to DJK. They then run a Power I with 2 TEs to the short side of the field to Adam Robinson. Good play, well blocked, Greg Jones is a stud, saves a TD. Iowa then has to burn a Time Out getting the play in. That is the KOK I know and love. Next play is the same formation except Iowa motions Reisner to the wide side of the field, same zone lead 2 yard gain, holding called on Bulaga, debatable call, oh well. Now it is 2 and Goal from the 13. This is probably a passing down. Iowa comes out with 3 wide outs( a slot to the wide side of the field) and Robinson in the backfield, Tony Moeaki as the Tight End on the short side of the field. MSU is still in their base defense. The line up exactly like Iowa does here. Iowa has a run called to the short side of the field. They can't block everyone. It is 5 to 6.
ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
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SS -
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SLB MLB
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CB DE NG
TETGC
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That is my bad attempt at play art to explain what I mean about a numbers mismatch. I am not including the other side of the line #1 because that took 10 minutes and #2, the DE came back around Moeaki to make the tackle for a three yard gain. So Iowa now has Third and Goal from Ten yard line.Pass right? No they run basically the same play out of shotgun only Moeaki is on the other side and Iowa has a better front to block. Three down lineman, three linebackers and five defensive backs. I have three problems with this playcall. One it didn't suprise me. Two if you are worried about a turnover that means you trust a true freshman runningback more than your offensive line and your quarterback. And finally three, if you don't make it it leaves Murray a terrible angle for the field goal and he was already looking shaky on the first two. Fortunately it didn't matter.
Stanzi has now dropped back 101 times without throwing a pick since the interception return for a TD versus Michigan although he does have a fumble lost in there. He is making better decisions and getting out of bad plays when he is given time to do so. As the games progress he continues to get better becoming more and more comfortable with what he is seeing and more confident as the game goes on. He has as much natural ability as any quarterback to play for Iowa. He certainly has the poise and leadership skills to lead Iowa to a special season. This team can only go as far as he can take them. He has earned the right to do more than be a caretaker. He now also has one other thing in common with Drew Tate- a signature win that Hawk fans will never forget.
Ricky Stanzi isn't Drew Tate. At least he isn't yet. He doesn't have Tate's ability to process information and ability to extend plays and see receivers break open downfield consistently. He isn't as accurate as Tate was (a healthy Drew Tate for people who only remember his senior year). Stanzi has some things going for him that Tate didn't. He isn't as high strung and seems impervious to pressure. He seems to be genuinely like by all of his teammates and that didn't always seem to be the case for Drew at the end of his career, although looking at the attrition around the program and some of the comments from some of his teammates of that era, that might not have been a bad thing. He is tall enough to be invited to the NFL scouting combine if he continues to improve. He also has a group of receivers at his disposal that Tate could only dream about. But Tate also seemed to have something that Stanzi doesn't yet have. The absolute trust to go out and win the game.
Stanzi is a winner, there is no doubt about that as he has started 19 games and won 16 of them. But a case could be made that Iowa has won some of those games in spite of Stanzi or that the defense won them. I don't want to make that case. In fact I want to make the case to let him do more. I feel like he turned the corner in the Arkansas State game even with the pick 6 he threw in that game. I actually think he was underutilized in that game and that we went away from the long pass for no reason at all in that game. Iowa scored early on two long passing plays and my game notes show Arkansas State was still playing 8 in the box and daring Iowa to throw the ball- playing single coverage on the outside. Stanzi could have thrown for 4 TDs in the first half and McNutt might have caught three TDs in the first half if the Hawks had kept attacking. Arky State didn't adjust or do anything to take it away, Iowa just stopped trying for that play. On the second play of first possession of the 2nd half Iowa runs the Go Route for McNutt and, cue Gary Dolphin, "Touchdown Iowa". Ricky threw 2 interceptions in that game but both were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. It was the long ball that was working all day. And that is the strength of Stanzi's game.
Quarterbacks who are percieved to win games are asked to do it at the end of games or in clutch situations. Iowa doesn't ask Stanzi to do that or they don't put him in postion to do it. I don't know if it is a matter of not trusting him or a ridiculous amount of faith in the defense. Until last Saturday the defense had been up to the task all season and they still allowed only 13 points, normally plenty enough to win you a game. Here are the reasons a couple of the reasons I don't think the "training wheels" have been taken off of Stanzi yet.
Until "The Drive" versus Michigan State, Iowa had not successfully completed a "2 minute drill"this season. At the end of the first half versus Arizona - Iowa stopped a field goal fake and took over with 2:49 left in the first half, a nice momentum swing. Brandon Wegher promptly popped off a 15 yard gain giving Iowa decent field position (their own 35) and plenty of time left to try to extend their 14- 10 lead. Stanzi competed a 7 yard pass to Wegher and then Iowa sat on the ball punting it away. Against Michigan Iowa was seemingly content to run out the clock when a Michigan time out spurred them into passing mode so they could try to run out the clock some more. They then ran three passing plays in a row, getting into field goal range on a beautifully executed flare to Brett Morse. They inexplicably picked up a delay penalty knocking Murray out of his comfort zone with Time Outs in their pocket. Murray missed the field goal.
And finally I think the Coaching Staff takes the ball out of Stanzi's hands content to let the defense win close games. This philosophy has won us 7 close games so far this season. But Iowa could have chance to put a couple games away earlier, including last Saturday's game with more aggressive playcalling. In fairness they tried to give him a chance to salt away the UNI game and Stanzi and the offense came up short, calling four pass plays out of a six play drive (including the punt and scrambles). I also found no flaws with the Arkansas State playcalling, giving them a 80+ yard field with less than 20 seconds.
But the Michigan game drove me crazy. At the time no one knew Forcier was hurt. Iowa had a 3rd and 4 from their own 39. If they had converted it Michigan was out of time outs and the game was over. Michigan was only down two and only needed a field goal to win. Iowa ran Power I zone Lead with a Fullback to Bulaga's side into a blitzing 9 man front. No numbers advantage and a run for a loss. Thank you Denard Robinson.
Against Wisconsin, Iowa had a relatively comfortable 10 point lead with 3:30 remaining. Iowa goes for it on 4th and 5. Iowa runs play action and has Allen Reisner completely alone. There is a hilarious thread on the Scout site about interpreting Kirk's smirk. Stanzi wasn't throwing the ball. If he was throwing the ball he would have stopped rolling out and just thrown the ball. Touchdown, 27 - 10 nightmares of crazy plays and onside kicks abate and you relax. Instead thank you Scott Tolzien.
Finally the Michigan State game. Iowa passes the ball on a perfectly thrown fade to DJK. They then run a Power I with 2 TEs to the short side of the field to Adam Robinson. Good play, well blocked, Greg Jones is a stud, saves a TD. Iowa then has to burn a Time Out getting the play in. That is the KOK I know and love. Next play is the same formation except Iowa motions Reisner to the wide side of the field, same zone lead 2 yard gain, holding called on Bulaga, debatable call, oh well. Now it is 2 and Goal from the 13. This is probably a passing down. Iowa comes out with 3 wide outs( a slot to the wide side of the field) and Robinson in the backfield, Tony Moeaki as the Tight End on the short side of the field. MSU is still in their base defense. The line up exactly like Iowa does here. Iowa has a run called to the short side of the field. They can't block everyone. It is 5 to 6.
ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
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That is my bad attempt at play art to explain what I mean about a numbers mismatch. I am not including the other side of the line #1 because that took 10 minutes and #2, the DE came back around Moeaki to make the tackle for a three yard gain. So Iowa now has Third and Goal from Ten yard line.Pass right? No they run basically the same play out of shotgun only Moeaki is on the other side and Iowa has a better front to block. Three down lineman, three linebackers and five defensive backs. I have three problems with this playcall. One it didn't suprise me. Two if you are worried about a turnover that means you trust a true freshman runningback more than your offensive line and your quarterback. And finally three, if you don't make it it leaves Murray a terrible angle for the field goal and he was already looking shaky on the first two. Fortunately it didn't matter.
Stanzi has now dropped back 101 times without throwing a pick since the interception return for a TD versus Michigan although he does have a fumble lost in there. He is making better decisions and getting out of bad plays when he is given time to do so. As the games progress he continues to get better becoming more and more comfortable with what he is seeing and more confident as the game goes on. He has as much natural ability as any quarterback to play for Iowa. He certainly has the poise and leadership skills to lead Iowa to a special season. This team can only go as far as he can take them. He has earned the right to do more than be a caretaker. He now also has one other thing in common with Drew Tate- a signature win that Hawk fans will never forget.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Michigan State Vs. Iowa Matchups Part II
In part one I broke down MSU's offensive tendencies. I expect to see less of traditional power I sets and I formations from MSU in this game and more Shotgun in this game. I don't think that MSU will be able to run the ball in this game. Wisconsin had a much better run blocking Oline than MSU and their best running back (Glenn Winston) is out for the year with a torn ACL. Here are the rest of the matchups for this game.
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 57 Rocco Cironi LT SR 6'6 309 and 59 D.J. Young RT JR 6'5 310, 77 J'Michael Deane RT JR 6'5 312: Cironi is a 3 year starter and a pretty solid player. He is better as a run blocker than in pass protection. He struggled against Wisconsin in pass protection. Young and Deane are both inexperienced and have both moved from the defensive line. They are both athletic and better at this point at run blocking. Both have really struggled when left on an island in pass protection and have benefitted from having a tight end left in to help them in pass protection. Clayborn and Binns have excelled at rushing the passer and have done a pretty nice job in run support. They have done very good at pursuit when the run isn't there way. It is important for them to recognize when #7 Keith Nichol comes in at QB for MSU as he is a running threat from the shotgun formation. They will have to read the option on the QB- read play. This will be the 8th week in a row they would face that as Wisconsin brought in Kurt Phillips in for a series to try it after Monte Ball's TD.
Spud's Spin: Big Edge to the Hawks here. Clayborn may be the most complete Defensive End in the Big Ten even though he doesn't have the flashy stats that Graham, Heyward, or Scholfield do. He is more stout against the run and affects more plays than than any of those players. Binns just continues to improve every week and is the best natrural pass rusher Iowa has had since Matt Roth. He should cause either RT he is facing a lot of issues this weekend.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs. 67 Joel Foreman LG SO 6'4 306, 65 Joel Nitchman C SR 6'4 296, and 64 Brendan Moss RG SR 6'7 284: Foreman and Nitchman are returning starters and very good run blockers. They are also pretty solid in pass protection. When MSU is having protection breakdowns this season it is usually from the edges. Moss had only started one game coming into this season and had played mostly tackle before this season. The successful runs I have seen for them have been on his side. He has the ability to pull and is deadly on the second level. He is very athletic for a guard. He can be manhandled however and isn't a good matchup for someone as strong as Christian Ballard, who will be lined up across from him. Ballard and Klug just continue to plug along disrupting schemes. Daniels was a revelation last week making the most of his opportunity and hopefully playing his way into some kind of a rotation. He really plays low and was the most disruptive Hawkeye on the field in his first appearance in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Again this is just not a good matchup for MSU. They really struggled against their only comparable opponent Wisconsin and I think Iowa has a more talented Dline. If Iowa continues to rotate Daniels in and give Klug and Ballard breathers and keep them both fresh for the entire game this could be and even bigger strength for the Hawks.
49 A.J. Edds SLB and 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 83 Charlie Gantt TE JR 6'5 248, 88 Brian Linthicum TE SO 6'5 248, and 85 Garrett Celek TE SO 6'5 243: Gantt is the bellcow of this group. He killed Iowa last year but is a little forgotten this season. He has also been asked to stay in and block more than he had to last season given some of the pass protection issues they have been experiencing. Gantt is probably the third best TE in the Big Ten after Moeaki and Graham from Whisky. He can run any route and do something with the ball in his hands. Linthicum and Celek are better receivers than blockers but they are adequate run blockers. They are on the field alot. Edds is going to get a chance to play over a tight end some against MSU but they really like to run "twin" formations so he should be on a slot most of the time. Hunter has to get his hands on Gantt and disrupt his routes and tackle well when he is asked to cover him.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This is closer than I would like it to be. If Hoyer was still the QB I might favor the Sparty here but Cousin's doesn't seem to look for his tight ends nearly as often as Hoyer did. It is really important for Edds and Hunter to shed blocks from the TEs in this game in order to control the running game as they like to run outside zones with 2 tight end formations and for Edds to tackle well vs. the slot screen in the open field as that seems to be MSU's signature play.
CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 25 Blair White SR 6'2 200, 3 B.J. Cunningham SO 6'2 212, 2 Mark Dell Jr 6'2 197, 82 Keeshawn Martin SO 5'11 185, and 16 Chris D. Rucker SO 5'10 174: Blair White and B.J. Cunningham are the most dangerous players in this group. White is coming off an incredible game against Northwestern where he caught 12 balls for 182 yards. He runs very good routes, understands coverage, and doesn't drop passes. He has a knack for making tacklers miss. Cunningham is dangerous after the catch. He breaks tackles and runs pretty decent routes and has above average speed. Dell is the other main cog in the spread looks that they run. He is mostly a possession guy. He doesn't drop passes and is a very good blocker. He also seems to be a pretty good leader and understand coverage as well. Martin and Rucker are fast but are just "guys" right now. I think they are just in to give the top 3 a breather right now. Speivey is having the best season I have ever seen an Iowa CB have. He is a physical tackler and truly a shutdown corner. Prater is really coming on and almost baited Tolzien into another pick last week like he did in the Penn State game. He has also really done a nice job in run support.
Spud's Spin: Push. I would give the nod to MSU if I knew how smart their OC was but I don't. The fact that they only scored 24 on Northwestern after both of their starting safeties were hurt early in the first half makes me think that he isn't real bright. Wooten was also hurt for Northwestern and they still generated a pretty good pass rush. If he is smart enough to keep Sash and Spievey on the same side and not throw in that direction than edge MSU. If he isn't Edge Iowa.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. 22 Larry Caper FR 5'11 215, 4 Edwin Baker FR 5'9 200, and 24 Caulton Ray R.FR 5'9 195: Caper has taken over the #1 tailback spot after the seaon ending injury to Glenn Winston. Caper has decent vision and runs with some decent power- he will break arm tackles. He runs pretty tall and could be fumble prone. Baker saw his first significant action last week as he had his redshirt stripped. He also runs with some pretty decent power and showed a nice burst hitting the hole. He doesn't show the same vision as Caper but doesn't have the same amount of carries as Caper so far. Caulton is not used as much and is pretty much a speed guy. MSU's TBs don't seem to be a factor in the passing game. Angerer is coming off of his best game of the season. He owned John Clay in the second half. None of the guys he is facing this week will have the power of Clay and Angerer could have a field day if MSU tries to stick to the run. Angerer also showed nice acceleration on his limited blitzes.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa Angerer sees this running scheme every weekday in practice and should be able to read his keys in his sleep. If he can sift through the traffic he could pile up a career high in tackles for losses. I just don't know if MSU is going to try to run the ball very much. Angerer is also very solid in pass coverage and does a very good job of getting depth in pass coverage and has the speed to make up for a false step in case of play action. Caper is the MSU Tailback most likely to make a difference in this game.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs QBs 8 Kirk Cousins SO 6'3 202 and 7 Kieth Nichol SO 6'2 215: Cousins and Nichol were rotating for most of the season but Cousins seems to be the man now. Cousins is pretty much a drop back passer. He is fighting an injured ankle but he looked about as mobile as normal vs. NU. Cousins has a nice accurate arm, nice pocket awareness, he reads coverage well, and he has nice touch. He doesn't try to force the ball into tight spots. He doesn't seem to have elite arm strenght, the ball seems to float on him and he seems to have a funky delivery. He is also as slow as the minute hand on the time clock at your work on a Friday afternoon. I don't know how he ran for a 40 yard gain against Michigan. Nichol is the runner. He can throw but he is in there to add the run element to their spread attack. He isn't nearly the passer that Cousins is. He is also battling an ankle issue and didn't play vs NU. Therefore his effectiveness is greatly limited. I don't expect to see him.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. This game could come down to how patient Cousins' will be. If he can be content to throw nice easy passes against Iowa's zone and slowly march the ball down the field and stay away from Amari Spievey he could win the game for MSU. If he is content to throw the ball away on third and long and let their punter do his job he could win the game. If he tries to force the ball down the field over Iowa's linebackers and under Iowa's safeties he will be feeding the vultures. Sash and Greenwood will get interceptions. He doesn't have a strong enough arm to throw deep outs against Iowa's D and Iowa's LBs get such good depth on thier drops that he can't really attack the deep middle either. The long throw against Iowa is a turnover waiting to happen for him at this point in his career.
Some terrible predictions:
1. Niether team rushes for 100 total yards.
2. Ricky Stanzi throws for his first 300 yard game.
3. No Iowa receiver goes over 100 yards.
4. Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns combine for 5 sacks.
5. B.J. Cunningham leads MSU in receiving yards totaling over 100.
It would be nice for Iowa to come out hot but obviously that isn't necassary for them to win. I understand that the weather is supposed to be bad and that is supposed to favor the running game, but I just don't see either team's defense allowing the other to run. I think both teams will come out passing. Iowa's Oline can pass protect. Michigan State's can't.
Spud's Spin: Final Score Iowa 28 MSU 17
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 57 Rocco Cironi LT SR 6'6 309 and 59 D.J. Young RT JR 6'5 310, 77 J'Michael Deane RT JR 6'5 312: Cironi is a 3 year starter and a pretty solid player. He is better as a run blocker than in pass protection. He struggled against Wisconsin in pass protection. Young and Deane are both inexperienced and have both moved from the defensive line. They are both athletic and better at this point at run blocking. Both have really struggled when left on an island in pass protection and have benefitted from having a tight end left in to help them in pass protection. Clayborn and Binns have excelled at rushing the passer and have done a pretty nice job in run support. They have done very good at pursuit when the run isn't there way. It is important for them to recognize when #7 Keith Nichol comes in at QB for MSU as he is a running threat from the shotgun formation. They will have to read the option on the QB- read play. This will be the 8th week in a row they would face that as Wisconsin brought in Kurt Phillips in for a series to try it after Monte Ball's TD.
Spud's Spin: Big Edge to the Hawks here. Clayborn may be the most complete Defensive End in the Big Ten even though he doesn't have the flashy stats that Graham, Heyward, or Scholfield do. He is more stout against the run and affects more plays than than any of those players. Binns just continues to improve every week and is the best natrural pass rusher Iowa has had since Matt Roth. He should cause either RT he is facing a lot of issues this weekend.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs. 67 Joel Foreman LG SO 6'4 306, 65 Joel Nitchman C SR 6'4 296, and 64 Brendan Moss RG SR 6'7 284: Foreman and Nitchman are returning starters and very good run blockers. They are also pretty solid in pass protection. When MSU is having protection breakdowns this season it is usually from the edges. Moss had only started one game coming into this season and had played mostly tackle before this season. The successful runs I have seen for them have been on his side. He has the ability to pull and is deadly on the second level. He is very athletic for a guard. He can be manhandled however and isn't a good matchup for someone as strong as Christian Ballard, who will be lined up across from him. Ballard and Klug just continue to plug along disrupting schemes. Daniels was a revelation last week making the most of his opportunity and hopefully playing his way into some kind of a rotation. He really plays low and was the most disruptive Hawkeye on the field in his first appearance in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Again this is just not a good matchup for MSU. They really struggled against their only comparable opponent Wisconsin and I think Iowa has a more talented Dline. If Iowa continues to rotate Daniels in and give Klug and Ballard breathers and keep them both fresh for the entire game this could be and even bigger strength for the Hawks.
49 A.J. Edds SLB and 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 83 Charlie Gantt TE JR 6'5 248, 88 Brian Linthicum TE SO 6'5 248, and 85 Garrett Celek TE SO 6'5 243: Gantt is the bellcow of this group. He killed Iowa last year but is a little forgotten this season. He has also been asked to stay in and block more than he had to last season given some of the pass protection issues they have been experiencing. Gantt is probably the third best TE in the Big Ten after Moeaki and Graham from Whisky. He can run any route and do something with the ball in his hands. Linthicum and Celek are better receivers than blockers but they are adequate run blockers. They are on the field alot. Edds is going to get a chance to play over a tight end some against MSU but they really like to run "twin" formations so he should be on a slot most of the time. Hunter has to get his hands on Gantt and disrupt his routes and tackle well when he is asked to cover him.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This is closer than I would like it to be. If Hoyer was still the QB I might favor the Sparty here but Cousin's doesn't seem to look for his tight ends nearly as often as Hoyer did. It is really important for Edds and Hunter to shed blocks from the TEs in this game in order to control the running game as they like to run outside zones with 2 tight end formations and for Edds to tackle well vs. the slot screen in the open field as that seems to be MSU's signature play.
CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 25 Blair White SR 6'2 200, 3 B.J. Cunningham SO 6'2 212, 2 Mark Dell Jr 6'2 197, 82 Keeshawn Martin SO 5'11 185, and 16 Chris D. Rucker SO 5'10 174: Blair White and B.J. Cunningham are the most dangerous players in this group. White is coming off an incredible game against Northwestern where he caught 12 balls for 182 yards. He runs very good routes, understands coverage, and doesn't drop passes. He has a knack for making tacklers miss. Cunningham is dangerous after the catch. He breaks tackles and runs pretty decent routes and has above average speed. Dell is the other main cog in the spread looks that they run. He is mostly a possession guy. He doesn't drop passes and is a very good blocker. He also seems to be a pretty good leader and understand coverage as well. Martin and Rucker are fast but are just "guys" right now. I think they are just in to give the top 3 a breather right now. Speivey is having the best season I have ever seen an Iowa CB have. He is a physical tackler and truly a shutdown corner. Prater is really coming on and almost baited Tolzien into another pick last week like he did in the Penn State game. He has also really done a nice job in run support.
Spud's Spin: Push. I would give the nod to MSU if I knew how smart their OC was but I don't. The fact that they only scored 24 on Northwestern after both of their starting safeties were hurt early in the first half makes me think that he isn't real bright. Wooten was also hurt for Northwestern and they still generated a pretty good pass rush. If he is smart enough to keep Sash and Spievey on the same side and not throw in that direction than edge MSU. If he isn't Edge Iowa.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. 22 Larry Caper FR 5'11 215, 4 Edwin Baker FR 5'9 200, and 24 Caulton Ray R.FR 5'9 195: Caper has taken over the #1 tailback spot after the seaon ending injury to Glenn Winston. Caper has decent vision and runs with some decent power- he will break arm tackles. He runs pretty tall and could be fumble prone. Baker saw his first significant action last week as he had his redshirt stripped. He also runs with some pretty decent power and showed a nice burst hitting the hole. He doesn't show the same vision as Caper but doesn't have the same amount of carries as Caper so far. Caulton is not used as much and is pretty much a speed guy. MSU's TBs don't seem to be a factor in the passing game. Angerer is coming off of his best game of the season. He owned John Clay in the second half. None of the guys he is facing this week will have the power of Clay and Angerer could have a field day if MSU tries to stick to the run. Angerer also showed nice acceleration on his limited blitzes.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa Angerer sees this running scheme every weekday in practice and should be able to read his keys in his sleep. If he can sift through the traffic he could pile up a career high in tackles for losses. I just don't know if MSU is going to try to run the ball very much. Angerer is also very solid in pass coverage and does a very good job of getting depth in pass coverage and has the speed to make up for a false step in case of play action. Caper is the MSU Tailback most likely to make a difference in this game.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs QBs 8 Kirk Cousins SO 6'3 202 and 7 Kieth Nichol SO 6'2 215: Cousins and Nichol were rotating for most of the season but Cousins seems to be the man now. Cousins is pretty much a drop back passer. He is fighting an injured ankle but he looked about as mobile as normal vs. NU. Cousins has a nice accurate arm, nice pocket awareness, he reads coverage well, and he has nice touch. He doesn't try to force the ball into tight spots. He doesn't seem to have elite arm strenght, the ball seems to float on him and he seems to have a funky delivery. He is also as slow as the minute hand on the time clock at your work on a Friday afternoon. I don't know how he ran for a 40 yard gain against Michigan. Nichol is the runner. He can throw but he is in there to add the run element to their spread attack. He isn't nearly the passer that Cousins is. He is also battling an ankle issue and didn't play vs NU. Therefore his effectiveness is greatly limited. I don't expect to see him.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. This game could come down to how patient Cousins' will be. If he can be content to throw nice easy passes against Iowa's zone and slowly march the ball down the field and stay away from Amari Spievey he could win the game for MSU. If he is content to throw the ball away on third and long and let their punter do his job he could win the game. If he tries to force the ball down the field over Iowa's linebackers and under Iowa's safeties he will be feeding the vultures. Sash and Greenwood will get interceptions. He doesn't have a strong enough arm to throw deep outs against Iowa's D and Iowa's LBs get such good depth on thier drops that he can't really attack the deep middle either. The long throw against Iowa is a turnover waiting to happen for him at this point in his career.
Some terrible predictions:
1. Niether team rushes for 100 total yards.
2. Ricky Stanzi throws for his first 300 yard game.
3. No Iowa receiver goes over 100 yards.
4. Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns combine for 5 sacks.
5. B.J. Cunningham leads MSU in receiving yards totaling over 100.
It would be nice for Iowa to come out hot but obviously that isn't necassary for them to win. I understand that the weather is supposed to be bad and that is supposed to favor the running game, but I just don't see either team's defense allowing the other to run. I think both teams will come out passing. Iowa's Oline can pass protect. Michigan State's can't.
Spud's Spin: Final Score Iowa 28 MSU 17
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Michigan State Vs. Iowa Matchups Part I
Iowa is facing the most critical game in the last several seasons. Probably the most season defining game since the Ohio State game of 2005. There is one more really important game left on the schedule if Iowa clears this hurdle but it all depends on The Hawks winning this one. MSU has won three in a row after a rough September. The games I have reviewed are Michigan and Northwestern which both run spreads. I am going to make this a two parter since I did so much up front. The first part will be Iowa's offense vs MSU's defense.
They are a fairly talented team offensively and fairly veteran on the Oline. They are run a "multiple" offensive scheme which means they run a lot of different formations. They really like to run a lot of Two tight end formations, and have one elite Tight end in Charlie Gantt. They also use a lot of I and Power I (two tight ends). They like to line up with alot of "twin" formations(2 receiver to the same side of the field). Finally they use a lot of Shotgun Spread and are willing to run out of it. They favor the zone blocking scheme for their running game that Iowa uses. They will pull their guards more often than Iowa and run counters out of their I and power I similar to Wisconsin. I haven't seen them run play-action off of their counter play.
Passing-wise they love the screen play to the slot receiver and ran it at least 5 times against Northwestern. They have three talented receivers and two capable qbs. Blair White is a talented receiver who is out of the Ed Hinkel mold. Charlie Gantt was a thorn in Iowa's side last season and can run the whole passing route tree. The Tailbacks haven't been too involved in the passing game so far this season. The fullback Hawken has caught a few outlet passes but isn't a primary target.
Defensively Iowa will be looking in the mirror. MSU runs a 4-3 against just about any formation. Their WLB is a converted Safety who has the speed and cover skills to not look too foolish in zone coverage vs. wide outs. All three LBs are very speedy. They have three talented DL and play as many as 10 during a game. They don't stunt as often as Iowa. They look to play zone coverage most of the time and rush 4 most of the time like Iowa. Trevor Anderson is a very good player but isn't on the level of Brandon Graham or O'Brien Sholfield. When MSU forces a third and Long they go to a 3-3-5 look and generally blitz out of it. They bring at least 4 and usually 5 and look to disguise where it is coming from. Their secondary isn't extremely talented with the exception of Chris L. Rucker. He is a playmaker.
Last Season Iowa had the edge in this game statistically except for the turnover battle. They held Jovan Ringer to under 100 yards rushing and Brian Hoyer under 200 yards passing. Hoyer is now the backup Qb to one Tom Brady. Both teams are so drastically different I don't think it will really have any bearing on the game but I will print it anyway. Here are last season's stats:
MSU Iowa
FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Scks/ Agnst. FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Sck
15 34 91 13 24 184 1 19 39 151 15 22 158 3
Ok here are they match ups like usual.
79 Brian Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 58 Trevor Anderson SR 6'2 260, 89 Colin Neely JR 6'1 248, and 91 Ty Hoover FR 6'7 260 : The last couple of weeks have been rough ones for the bookend for the Iowa Tackles. Anderson, Neely, and Hoover are not as talented as the players they have faced in Graham and Scholfield but they play their responsibilities well. Anderson pretty much will be lined up over Calloway and Neely and Hoover should line up on Bulaga.
Spud's Spin: This should be an edge to Iowa. Although niether Iowa tackle is having the type of season that they were expected to they are still playing at a fairly high level and a mistake on the edge is pretty easy to see. Calloway certainly has the tougher assignment of the two but Anderson is more of an effort player and isn't really polished as he really just tries to bull his way in and occasionally works a spin move. Both players should be able to physically win in the run game.
78 Dace Richardson G, 77 Riley Reiff G, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, 63 Julian Vandervelde G Vs. 70 Oren Wilson JR 6'3 293, 99 Jerel Worthy R.FR 6'3 292, 92 Ishmyl Johnson SO 6'5 280, 96 Kevin Pickelman 6'4 268 SO: Freshman Jerel Worthy had to redshirt last season or he might have seen the field. He is super talented and has made plays all season for them. Oren Wilson doesn a nice job of occupying blockers and keeping the linebackers clean. Johnson and Pickelman see a lot of plays in order to keep Wilson and Worthy fresh but their is a significant drop off in run defense when they are in the game. Pickelman is pretty undersized for a Big Ten D-lineman (I know he is bigger than Klug). I am not a fan of the rotation going on right now but I understand why it is happening. I think that Reiff is better suited strength and build- wise to be a tackle but the experience he is getting right now is invualable. I think that Vandervelde has played well enough in the last two games to get the starting job back. I understand he looked like crap against Arkansas State but he wasn't the only one missing assignments in that game. I also think he has been close to flawless in pass protection this season and Iowa may have to abandon the running game early in this game to move the ball. Richardson has been the rock of the interior. I also think that Eubanks has been steadily improving and has been doing a steady job of making the line calls all year.
Spud's Spin: I would give Iowa the edge here when Reiff is not in the game and other wise call it a push. Iowa just has such and experience edge here and seemed really figure things out in the second half against Wisconsin. MSU really struggled against the only other smash mouth team they have faced this season in Wisconsin and I think Iowa's Oline is superior to the Badgers'.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 43 Eric Gordon SLB JR 6'0 228: Moeaki has played in two games in a row which may be a personal record. Just kidding. When Moeaki is healthy Iowa's offense is just so different. Every formation and play is just so much more effective. He didn't have his best blocking game and still was a difference maker with his receiving. Gordon is a very good player. He is very fast for the position, instinctive, and a solid tackler. He isn't going to awe you with his physicality when he tackles you but he gets you down. He also doesn't get fooled often, doesn't take a lot of false steps or poor angles to ball carriers. He is also a fairly effective blitzer and stays on the field regardless of the down. He isn't asked to do a lot of man to man coverage.
Spud's Spin: Big edge Iowa. As good as Gordon is there is no one in the big ten that I wouldn't give the edge to Moeaki to. Tony M. is possibly Iowa's most talented player and when he is on the field he is Iowa's most dangerous offensive option in the passing game. If MSU tries to cover him with a linebacker they in for a long day. If they let him block a safety we might actually be able to run the ball. He will win any match up he is presented.
82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 34 Brandon Denson SR 5' 11 230 WLB, 10 Chris Norman FR 6'1 210 WLB, and 33 Danny Fortener SR 6'1 205: Reisner and Morse are going to be responsible for getting a helmet on these guys in the running game. They should have a strength advantage on all of them. Denson is very fast, and is a converted safety playing his second season as a linebacker, he can be guilty of overpusuing and taking bad angles. Norman is a very good athlete but a true freshman and pretty inexperienced and vulnerable in coverage. I am guessing that Fortener will be the Safety in the box most of the time. He is a pretty solid tackler and run support is the strength of his game. I think all three of these guys are vulnerable to play-action if Iowa can get any semblance of a run game going.
Spud's spin: Overall Push, I give Iowa the edge in the passing game but Morse has been forgotten in that aspect of the offense lately after a strong start. I give MSU the edge in the run game with the help that Iowa's predicability gives defenses. It is tough to block players that know what you are running in advance.
WRS 15 DJK , 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 22 Colin Sandeman, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 29 Chris L. Rucker JR 6'2 199, 9 Jeremy Ware SR 5'11 188, 37 Ross Weaver SR 6'1 203, and 38 Kendell Davis-Clark SR 6'0 216: This is the big weakness for MSU and they try to hide it by playing a lot of zone coverage. They play a lot of base cover 2 when they can and when they get you in third and long they try to pressure so they don't have to expose their cbs for a long time. The best player in this unit is Rucker by far. Ware, Weaver and Davis-Clark are basically the same player- below average. They do generally tackle well and they are pretty much just looking to keep players in front of them. I would really like to take some time to complement all of Iowa's wide outs but especially Colin Sandeman. He has done a nice job returning punts and was the guy at the end of the game who was blocking when Iowa was killing clock.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. If Iowa comes out aggressive and opens up the playbook they should attack Ware early and often regardless who is lined up on his side. If they can loosen up the defense with some successful early passing then they can get that safety out of the box and try to run with even numbers. If they want to run early they need to be more creative and have three wide outs in the game. These guys are taking their blocking seriously. Chris Rucker is a good physical tackler, the rest are not that good in the run game.
32 Adam Robinson TB and 3 Brandon Wegher TB Vs. 53 Greg Jones MLB SR 6'1 228: Jones is probably the best linebacker in the Big Ten not wearing a Hawkeye or Penn State jersey. He plays his assignment well, is very fast, tackles well and can blitz very well for a mike 'backer. He is decent in pass coverage but his strength is sifting through traffic and tracking down ball carriers. He is a legit sideline to sideline playmaker. Robinson seems to be getting better every week. His vision is what is impressing me the most. He is also running very physical for his size. He had a pretty big drop on a third down last week but that is about the only negative you can point to. Wegher is still struggling to adapt to Iowa's scheme. He seems to be looking to bounce every run outside and is trying to outrun every player. He forgets that he has a little shimmy and can put some moves on guys. He has also been the victim of some pretty bad blocking and playcalls. He is an outstanding weapon in the passing game.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge MSU. Jones has tons of experience over both of these guys and really does a nice job of reading his keys. Iowa is pretty easy to scout and that should make for a long day for both of Iowa's runners unless KOK decides to change things up or the Oline absolutely dominate.
12 Rick Stanzi QB Vs. 11 Marcus Hyde FS 6'0 206 JR: Stanzi needs to continue the solid decision making and accuracy he displayed in Wisconsin. If he can manipulate Hyde with his eyes he should have the opportunity to make plays downfield with one on one coverage as I expect MSU to come out with 8 in the box. Hyde (the older brother of current Hawkeye frosh Micah) is a good athlete but he is a first year starter and hasn't estabished himself as a playmaker yet. If Rick can move him around good things could be in store as Tolzien had a huge day for Wisconsin against this secondary.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa/ I think Stanzi is more comfortable on the road. Stanzi's mobility is also very underrated. He isn't looking to run for a ton of yards, but he escapes trouble and looks to make throws and throws very, very well on the run. I am predicting his first turnover free game of the season. That would bring his average at Michigan State to 1 a game. I would also encourage KOK to take out the 2nd down qb sneak in the red zone. FOREVER!
They are a fairly talented team offensively and fairly veteran on the Oline. They are run a "multiple" offensive scheme which means they run a lot of different formations. They really like to run a lot of Two tight end formations, and have one elite Tight end in Charlie Gantt. They also use a lot of I and Power I (two tight ends). They like to line up with alot of "twin" formations(2 receiver to the same side of the field). Finally they use a lot of Shotgun Spread and are willing to run out of it. They favor the zone blocking scheme for their running game that Iowa uses. They will pull their guards more often than Iowa and run counters out of their I and power I similar to Wisconsin. I haven't seen them run play-action off of their counter play.
Passing-wise they love the screen play to the slot receiver and ran it at least 5 times against Northwestern. They have three talented receivers and two capable qbs. Blair White is a talented receiver who is out of the Ed Hinkel mold. Charlie Gantt was a thorn in Iowa's side last season and can run the whole passing route tree. The Tailbacks haven't been too involved in the passing game so far this season. The fullback Hawken has caught a few outlet passes but isn't a primary target.
Defensively Iowa will be looking in the mirror. MSU runs a 4-3 against just about any formation. Their WLB is a converted Safety who has the speed and cover skills to not look too foolish in zone coverage vs. wide outs. All three LBs are very speedy. They have three talented DL and play as many as 10 during a game. They don't stunt as often as Iowa. They look to play zone coverage most of the time and rush 4 most of the time like Iowa. Trevor Anderson is a very good player but isn't on the level of Brandon Graham or O'Brien Sholfield. When MSU forces a third and Long they go to a 3-3-5 look and generally blitz out of it. They bring at least 4 and usually 5 and look to disguise where it is coming from. Their secondary isn't extremely talented with the exception of Chris L. Rucker. He is a playmaker.
Last Season Iowa had the edge in this game statistically except for the turnover battle. They held Jovan Ringer to under 100 yards rushing and Brian Hoyer under 200 yards passing. Hoyer is now the backup Qb to one Tom Brady. Both teams are so drastically different I don't think it will really have any bearing on the game but I will print it anyway. Here are last season's stats:
MSU Iowa
FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Scks/ Agnst. FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Sck
15 34 91 13 24 184 1 19 39 151 15 22 158 3
Ok here are they match ups like usual.
79 Brian Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 58 Trevor Anderson SR 6'2 260, 89 Colin Neely JR 6'1 248, and 91 Ty Hoover FR 6'7 260 : The last couple of weeks have been rough ones for the bookend for the Iowa Tackles. Anderson, Neely, and Hoover are not as talented as the players they have faced in Graham and Scholfield but they play their responsibilities well. Anderson pretty much will be lined up over Calloway and Neely and Hoover should line up on Bulaga.
Spud's Spin: This should be an edge to Iowa. Although niether Iowa tackle is having the type of season that they were expected to they are still playing at a fairly high level and a mistake on the edge is pretty easy to see. Calloway certainly has the tougher assignment of the two but Anderson is more of an effort player and isn't really polished as he really just tries to bull his way in and occasionally works a spin move. Both players should be able to physically win in the run game.
78 Dace Richardson G, 77 Riley Reiff G, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, 63 Julian Vandervelde G Vs. 70 Oren Wilson JR 6'3 293, 99 Jerel Worthy R.FR 6'3 292, 92 Ishmyl Johnson SO 6'5 280, 96 Kevin Pickelman 6'4 268 SO: Freshman Jerel Worthy had to redshirt last season or he might have seen the field. He is super talented and has made plays all season for them. Oren Wilson doesn a nice job of occupying blockers and keeping the linebackers clean. Johnson and Pickelman see a lot of plays in order to keep Wilson and Worthy fresh but their is a significant drop off in run defense when they are in the game. Pickelman is pretty undersized for a Big Ten D-lineman (I know he is bigger than Klug). I am not a fan of the rotation going on right now but I understand why it is happening. I think that Reiff is better suited strength and build- wise to be a tackle but the experience he is getting right now is invualable. I think that Vandervelde has played well enough in the last two games to get the starting job back. I understand he looked like crap against Arkansas State but he wasn't the only one missing assignments in that game. I also think he has been close to flawless in pass protection this season and Iowa may have to abandon the running game early in this game to move the ball. Richardson has been the rock of the interior. I also think that Eubanks has been steadily improving and has been doing a steady job of making the line calls all year.
Spud's Spin: I would give Iowa the edge here when Reiff is not in the game and other wise call it a push. Iowa just has such and experience edge here and seemed really figure things out in the second half against Wisconsin. MSU really struggled against the only other smash mouth team they have faced this season in Wisconsin and I think Iowa's Oline is superior to the Badgers'.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 43 Eric Gordon SLB JR 6'0 228: Moeaki has played in two games in a row which may be a personal record. Just kidding. When Moeaki is healthy Iowa's offense is just so different. Every formation and play is just so much more effective. He didn't have his best blocking game and still was a difference maker with his receiving. Gordon is a very good player. He is very fast for the position, instinctive, and a solid tackler. He isn't going to awe you with his physicality when he tackles you but he gets you down. He also doesn't get fooled often, doesn't take a lot of false steps or poor angles to ball carriers. He is also a fairly effective blitzer and stays on the field regardless of the down. He isn't asked to do a lot of man to man coverage.
Spud's Spin: Big edge Iowa. As good as Gordon is there is no one in the big ten that I wouldn't give the edge to Moeaki to. Tony M. is possibly Iowa's most talented player and when he is on the field he is Iowa's most dangerous offensive option in the passing game. If MSU tries to cover him with a linebacker they in for a long day. If they let him block a safety we might actually be able to run the ball. He will win any match up he is presented.
82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 34 Brandon Denson SR 5' 11 230 WLB, 10 Chris Norman FR 6'1 210 WLB, and 33 Danny Fortener SR 6'1 205: Reisner and Morse are going to be responsible for getting a helmet on these guys in the running game. They should have a strength advantage on all of them. Denson is very fast, and is a converted safety playing his second season as a linebacker, he can be guilty of overpusuing and taking bad angles. Norman is a very good athlete but a true freshman and pretty inexperienced and vulnerable in coverage. I am guessing that Fortener will be the Safety in the box most of the time. He is a pretty solid tackler and run support is the strength of his game. I think all three of these guys are vulnerable to play-action if Iowa can get any semblance of a run game going.
Spud's spin: Overall Push, I give Iowa the edge in the passing game but Morse has been forgotten in that aspect of the offense lately after a strong start. I give MSU the edge in the run game with the help that Iowa's predicability gives defenses. It is tough to block players that know what you are running in advance.
WRS 15 DJK , 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 22 Colin Sandeman, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 29 Chris L. Rucker JR 6'2 199, 9 Jeremy Ware SR 5'11 188, 37 Ross Weaver SR 6'1 203, and 38 Kendell Davis-Clark SR 6'0 216: This is the big weakness for MSU and they try to hide it by playing a lot of zone coverage. They play a lot of base cover 2 when they can and when they get you in third and long they try to pressure so they don't have to expose their cbs for a long time. The best player in this unit is Rucker by far. Ware, Weaver and Davis-Clark are basically the same player- below average. They do generally tackle well and they are pretty much just looking to keep players in front of them. I would really like to take some time to complement all of Iowa's wide outs but especially Colin Sandeman. He has done a nice job returning punts and was the guy at the end of the game who was blocking when Iowa was killing clock.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. If Iowa comes out aggressive and opens up the playbook they should attack Ware early and often regardless who is lined up on his side. If they can loosen up the defense with some successful early passing then they can get that safety out of the box and try to run with even numbers. If they want to run early they need to be more creative and have three wide outs in the game. These guys are taking their blocking seriously. Chris Rucker is a good physical tackler, the rest are not that good in the run game.
32 Adam Robinson TB and 3 Brandon Wegher TB Vs. 53 Greg Jones MLB SR 6'1 228: Jones is probably the best linebacker in the Big Ten not wearing a Hawkeye or Penn State jersey. He plays his assignment well, is very fast, tackles well and can blitz very well for a mike 'backer. He is decent in pass coverage but his strength is sifting through traffic and tracking down ball carriers. He is a legit sideline to sideline playmaker. Robinson seems to be getting better every week. His vision is what is impressing me the most. He is also running very physical for his size. He had a pretty big drop on a third down last week but that is about the only negative you can point to. Wegher is still struggling to adapt to Iowa's scheme. He seems to be looking to bounce every run outside and is trying to outrun every player. He forgets that he has a little shimmy and can put some moves on guys. He has also been the victim of some pretty bad blocking and playcalls. He is an outstanding weapon in the passing game.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge MSU. Jones has tons of experience over both of these guys and really does a nice job of reading his keys. Iowa is pretty easy to scout and that should make for a long day for both of Iowa's runners unless KOK decides to change things up or the Oline absolutely dominate.
12 Rick Stanzi QB Vs. 11 Marcus Hyde FS 6'0 206 JR: Stanzi needs to continue the solid decision making and accuracy he displayed in Wisconsin. If he can manipulate Hyde with his eyes he should have the opportunity to make plays downfield with one on one coverage as I expect MSU to come out with 8 in the box. Hyde (the older brother of current Hawkeye frosh Micah) is a good athlete but he is a first year starter and hasn't estabished himself as a playmaker yet. If Rick can move him around good things could be in store as Tolzien had a huge day for Wisconsin against this secondary.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa/ I think Stanzi is more comfortable on the road. Stanzi's mobility is also very underrated. He isn't looking to run for a ton of yards, but he escapes trouble and looks to make throws and throws very, very well on the run. I am predicting his first turnover free game of the season. That would bring his average at Michigan State to 1 a game. I would also encourage KOK to take out the 2nd down qb sneak in the red zone. FOREVER!
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
A Randon Little Rant
Misperceptions about Iowa's talent level
I get a little tired of hearing about how Iowa takes overlooked players and coaches them up. Iowa does a pretty good job of recruiting. The difference between Iowa and Elite programs is the depth at every position. Iowa cannot afford significant injuries at multiple positions. Iowa's starting lineup is filled with "3 and 4 star" players. The Hawks starters were mostly highly recruited. The exceptions would be FS Brett Greenwood, FB Brett Morse, TB Adam Robinson, and DT Karl Klug although I think several Big Ten teams were in on Klug. Iowa does do a good job of coaching up their players and there are great stories of the "diamond in the rough" variety every season. But to say that Iowa doesn't have players that other programs' didn't covet or recruit isn't accurate. Here is a look at the two Sites that rank Hawkeye recruits Rivals and Scout and comparing them to Texas starting lineup.
and now Texas starting lineup
There isn't a drastic difference between the two line-ups. The difference is between the talent of the back-ups. Another "4 or 5 star" is waiting on the bench at a Texas or Florida or USC. Iowa has to coach up the back ups and project a linebacker into a d-end or tackle. They turn high school tight ends into tackles or qbs into linebackers or wide receivers. They do more coaching and teaching at Iowa. But the front line players at Iowa are just as talented as the front line players anywhere else. You can't tell me a coaching staff wouldn't find a place for Clayborn, Edds, Spievey, or Bulaga? Moeaki couldn't find a place in any scheme? Even Stanzi shows flashes of brilliance at times. You can see why Rivals rated him a 3 star. So the next time Iowa is on ESPN2 and Pam Ward is talking about how Northwestern and Iowa are evenly matched talentwise just giggle. Or when Lou Holtsh is trashing Iowa's players while praising Iowa's coaching staff remember he is saying they can't recruit. Or when Gerry Dinardo is saying, well I never understand whay he is saying, but he is better than Mason. That is part of the coaching staff's job too. And they have landed one of their better classes ever already and its not even November yet. Iowa's Coaching Staff is problaby already working on the 2011 class since the 2010 class is pretty much full.
I get a little tired of hearing about how Iowa takes overlooked players and coaches them up. Iowa does a pretty good job of recruiting. The difference between Iowa and Elite programs is the depth at every position. Iowa cannot afford significant injuries at multiple positions. Iowa's starting lineup is filled with "3 and 4 star" players. The Hawks starters were mostly highly recruited. The exceptions would be FS Brett Greenwood, FB Brett Morse, TB Adam Robinson, and DT Karl Klug although I think several Big Ten teams were in on Klug. Iowa does do a good job of coaching up their players and there are great stories of the "diamond in the rough" variety every season. But to say that Iowa doesn't have players that other programs' didn't covet or recruit isn't accurate. Here is a look at the two Sites that rank Hawkeye recruits Rivals and Scout and comparing them to Texas starting lineup.
Pos. Name Rivals Scout Year
WR Trey Stross 3* 4* 2005
WR Derrell Johnson- Koulianos 3* 3* 2006
WR Colin Sandeman 3* 3* 2007
ATH Marvin McNutt 3* 3* 2007
WR Keenan Davis 4* 4* 2009
RB Adam Robinson 2* 2* 2008
RB Brandon Wegher 4* 4* 2009
QB Brett Morse 2* 2* 2006
TE Tony Moeaki 4* 5* 2005
TE Allen Reisner 2* 2* 2007
QB Ricky Stanzi 3* 2* 2007
OL Brian Bulaga 4* 4* 2007
OL Dace Richardson 4* 5* 2005
OL Rafael Eubanks 4* 4* 2005
OL Julian Vandervelde 3* 2* 2006
OL Kyle Calloway 3* 3* 2005
OL Andy Keumpal 3* 3* 2005
DL Riley Reiff 3* 3* 2008
DL Adam Gettis 2* 2* 2007
DE Adrian Clayborn 4* 4* 2006
DT Karl Klug 2* 2* 2006
DT Christian Ballard 4* 4* 2007
DE Broderick Binns 3* 3* 2007
LB A.J. Edds 3* 4* 2006
LB Pat Angerer 3* 3* 2005
LB Jeremiha Hunter 4* 4* 2006
CB Amari Spievey 2*/4*juco 2*/4*juco 2006
CB Shaun Prater 3* 3* 2008
FS Brett Greenwood N/A 2* 2006
SS Tyler Sash 3* 3* 2007
P Ryan Donahue 2* 4* 2006
K Daniel Murray 2* 2* 2006
and now Texas starting lineup
QB McCoy 3 4 2005
TB McGee 4 4 2007
WR Shipley 4 4 2004
WR Kierkendoll 4 4 2007
WR Chiles 4 4 2007
TE Smith 3 2 2006
T Ulaloski 3 3 2004
T Tanner 3 3 2005
G Hall 3 3 2005
G Snow 4 4 2008
C Hix 4 4 2007
DE S. Acho 3 4 2007
DT Randall 4 3 2008
DT Houston 4 4 2005
DE Kindle 5 5 2006
LB E. Acho 3 4 2008
LB Robinson 4 4 2008
LB Muckelroy 3 4 2006
CB Williams 4 5 2008
CB Brown 5 4 2007
S Thomas 4 4 2008
S Gideon 2 3 2007
There isn't a drastic difference between the two line-ups. The difference is between the talent of the back-ups. Another "4 or 5 star" is waiting on the bench at a Texas or Florida or USC. Iowa has to coach up the back ups and project a linebacker into a d-end or tackle. They turn high school tight ends into tackles or qbs into linebackers or wide receivers. They do more coaching and teaching at Iowa. But the front line players at Iowa are just as talented as the front line players anywhere else. You can't tell me a coaching staff wouldn't find a place for Clayborn, Edds, Spievey, or Bulaga? Moeaki couldn't find a place in any scheme? Even Stanzi shows flashes of brilliance at times. You can see why Rivals rated him a 3 star. So the next time Iowa is on ESPN2 and Pam Ward is talking about how Northwestern and Iowa are evenly matched talentwise just giggle. Or when Lou Holtsh is trashing Iowa's players while praising Iowa's coaching staff remember he is saying they can't recruit. Or when Gerry Dinardo is saying, well I never understand whay he is saying, but he is better than Mason. That is part of the coaching staff's job too. And they have landed one of their better classes ever already and its not even November yet. Iowa's Coaching Staff is problaby already working on the 2011 class since the 2010 class is pretty much full.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Wisconsin Film Review
Same Format as usual. Iowa overcame its usual slow start to overwhelm Wisconsin and completely control the second half, winning 20 to 10 and really it wasn't that close. Iowa's defense was so dominant after the third offensive series for Wisconsin it was breathtaking. Wisconsin had eight series after Monte Ball's Touchdown with 8:10 remaining in the second quarter. Five of them ended as 3 and outs and the other three as interceptions. Wisconsin rushed the ball 10 times for 14 yards.including three negative plays not including sacks. Iowa's Linebackers completely controlled the middle of the field in the passing game and A.J. Edds may have played the best game of his Iowa career. His tackling of receivers in open space was incredible and his interception was a thing of beauty. His coverage also forced the first pick for Spievey. I came away impressed with Scholfield, Clay had better feet than I thought,Oglesby, Zietler and Konz will be tough to deal with for the next few years, and Taylor and Borland give Wisconsin a pair of playmaking linebackers to build a defense around. Wisconsin loses only a few players and if they hold on to O.C Chryst they will be a formidble opponent in the years to come. Now for the Negatives, Postives and Coaching comments.
Negatives:
Offensive Line Play (first half): Iowa is still struggling to find its stride here and this is part of the slow start plaguing the team right now. I can't put my finger on one thing. I wonder if teams are jumping the snap count. That is just a wild-ass guess. Scholfield could just be that good. I just have never seen Bulaga look that silly two weeks in a row. I understand that he is still rounding into form after a three week lay-off and missed some camp also but I expect he will be wearing an Iowa uniform next season now. Calloway struggled with the speed rush of the OLB Borland on third downs when Whisky ran their dime or nickel packages and Reiff seems to be a little too light to play guard. He seems a more natural fit for the tackle position. Not all of the running games struggles can be laid at the feet of the Oline as five players cannot be expected to block eight, and Moeaki really seemed to struggle with his run blocking in the first half as well. I also felt the team wasn't always put in the best position to succeed formationally(much more on that later). Iowa seemed to gain its stride throughout the game and was dominating by the end of the game. The pass protection in the second half was close to flawless.
The Zone Play to the Short Side of the Field: Last week it was the flare or three yard out to the slot receiver out of the ace formation (3 wide, 1 te, 1 back), but this entire year it seems to be the weak side zone play regardless of the formation or personnel. Iowa is seeing 8 man fronts on first or second down almost 80% of the time. Usually a safety or a corner is in the box and sometimes both and Iowa is still trying to run to the weak side of the formation where they don't have a numbers advantage. So they can't possibly block everyone. Robinson has done a nice job of recognizing cutback lanes occasionally, but most of the time this has led to a no gain or a run for a loss. When Iowa switched things up in the second half and began running out of the first formation I mentioned good things began happening. Another thing that may help is for Iowa to set up a dummy audible. For Stanzi to act like he is changing the play ala Peyton Manning and wait for the defense to adjust and then run whatever genius call KOK dialed up.
After a win like that I'm really just carping.
Positives:
The Linebacking Corps: This was the most complete and physical game that this unit has played all year. This was the type of performance I have been looking for all season and hope to see for the rest of the season. Even early when the Badgers were having success running the ball, the players trusted the scheme and played there responsibilties. When the Dline started taking over the LOS Angerer, Hunter and Edds started cleaning up and punishing Clay and Ball. They punished receivers when Tolzien could complete a pass over the middle and forced him to make bad throws by playing excellent coverage by getting great depth in their drops. I don't know if Edds has ever played better. He should get half of Spievey's first pick.
Rick Kaczienski: I probably murdered his name as I am going off of memory. He is Iowa's Dline coach and he is doing a masterful job of coaching his unit. Something that I think is underappreciated is the amount of passes this unit is knocking down or altering by jumping. Binns and Edds forced Tolzien out for a loss once but it happened because Binns jumped up instead of continuing to pursue giving Edds the time to force the QB out of bounds. Against Michigan Binns had two pass deflections and one was almost picked. Klug had one early against Wisconsin. Inserting Mike Daniels early in the game giving Klug and Ballard some rest seemed to keep both fresh and Daniels was a real difference maker. I would guess he played his way into the regular rotation. I would look to see more of Lebron Daniel and Cody Hundertmark for the rest of the season if not this week, than against Indiana and Northwestern.
Rick Stanzi: Stanzi played very well. I have no negative marks in my game notes about him. Even the fumble was really not his fault. The rush got to him so fast he really didn't have a chance to react. He really seems to be more comfortable away from Kinnick which should bode well for Iowa this week. He was really on target and on time with all of his throws and used the whole field. He showed decent pocket awareness and used his feet to get out of trouble and scrambled to make the biggest play of the game offensively for Iowa the 24 yard TD to Moeaki.
Adam Robinson: Robinson has really impressed me with his vision which may be the single most important attribute for a runner in Iowa's system. He really finishes his runs well too. Robinson just seems to have a better feel at this time for where the hole is going to be and for when to hit it. He also seems to have a little something for the first guy who makes contact with him and runs through traffic extremely well. It may be time for defined roles for Iowa's freshman duo. If Robinson is up to the extra work Iowa should give him two or three series in a row to see if he can handle the work load. If the rumors floating around about Wegher are true Iowa may not have a choice.
Coaching: I want to start with the good. Norm Parker set the tone early in this game by blitzing on the first third and long that Iowa forced. The result was a sack. Iowa looked a little shell shocked early and took some time adjusting to facing an old- fasioned power team, but once they did it was game over. When the Dline got their bearings and started pushing back Iowa took over the game. When Iowa is on schedule Defensively and forces third and longs they are much more aggresive than you might think. This tells me two things. Norm trusts this team- i.e. he is willing to play more players (more nickel and dime this season and last) and he thinks they are a good tackling team- he is more willing to blitz. He isn't always looking for the sack, just an early throw short of the chains.
Now the bad. The bad KOK was back in the first half. Real bad. Iowa was so predictable in fact that I think Wisconsin was probably calling out the plays. Iowa used 13 formations on Saturday. 2 of them were for passing only. Iowa really only has 4 basic running plays outside of the redzone. They can run those same plays out of any of the 11 other formations. One of the biggest problems I have is the slot receiver's motion. This is generally a dead give away to where Iowa is running the football. It is my opinion that Iowa would be better off running out of balanced formations or out of the 3 wr, 1 te, 1 back formation. They did this alot in the second half and had much more success running the football. They usually had the SLB out of the box. Teams are slanting their Dline and guessing correctly the direction of our zone run. It is amazing that neither Robinson nor Wegher have fumbled given how often they have been met 3-4 yards deep in the backfield. Iowa needs to continue to open games aggresive passing to soften up defenses and get the safety out of the box. KOK needs to be more creative formationally if he wants to continue to stubbornly run. At least run to the strong side of the formation more often than not where you have a numbers advantage. Don't try to be so tricky.
Finally KF had done a better job of managing the clock so far this season but this week was kind of a disaster. Iowa did not run a two minute offense with the ball at the end of the first half, punted stopped the Badgers, called two TOs, didn't like the Field Position and ran out the clock. Run the two minute offense the first time. Or don't call the Time outs. Or at least try to block the punt. That was just bewildering. Finally the last offensive play was a qb keeper where Reisner was wide open for a TD. There was a spirited debate about what KF's smile meant. I don't care what it meant, I still remember Northwestern 2005, and you score TDs when you can. That was inexcusable. If you trust Stanzi you let him throw the ball there. A JV QB could have made that play.
Ferentz is a very good coach but that kind of coaching is what lets Iowa be 16 points away from being undefeated last season and 9 points from being 4 and 3 this season. It is time to start putting teams away when they have a chance. Great win, great effort, just need better management and some tweaks for this to be a very special season. 11 in a row.
Negatives:
Offensive Line Play (first half): Iowa is still struggling to find its stride here and this is part of the slow start plaguing the team right now. I can't put my finger on one thing. I wonder if teams are jumping the snap count. That is just a wild-ass guess. Scholfield could just be that good. I just have never seen Bulaga look that silly two weeks in a row. I understand that he is still rounding into form after a three week lay-off and missed some camp also but I expect he will be wearing an Iowa uniform next season now. Calloway struggled with the speed rush of the OLB Borland on third downs when Whisky ran their dime or nickel packages and Reiff seems to be a little too light to play guard. He seems a more natural fit for the tackle position. Not all of the running games struggles can be laid at the feet of the Oline as five players cannot be expected to block eight, and Moeaki really seemed to struggle with his run blocking in the first half as well. I also felt the team wasn't always put in the best position to succeed formationally(much more on that later). Iowa seemed to gain its stride throughout the game and was dominating by the end of the game. The pass protection in the second half was close to flawless.
The Zone Play to the Short Side of the Field: Last week it was the flare or three yard out to the slot receiver out of the ace formation (3 wide, 1 te, 1 back), but this entire year it seems to be the weak side zone play regardless of the formation or personnel. Iowa is seeing 8 man fronts on first or second down almost 80% of the time. Usually a safety or a corner is in the box and sometimes both and Iowa is still trying to run to the weak side of the formation where they don't have a numbers advantage. So they can't possibly block everyone. Robinson has done a nice job of recognizing cutback lanes occasionally, but most of the time this has led to a no gain or a run for a loss. When Iowa switched things up in the second half and began running out of the first formation I mentioned good things began happening. Another thing that may help is for Iowa to set up a dummy audible. For Stanzi to act like he is changing the play ala Peyton Manning and wait for the defense to adjust and then run whatever genius call KOK dialed up.
After a win like that I'm really just carping.
Positives:
The Linebacking Corps: This was the most complete and physical game that this unit has played all year. This was the type of performance I have been looking for all season and hope to see for the rest of the season. Even early when the Badgers were having success running the ball, the players trusted the scheme and played there responsibilties. When the Dline started taking over the LOS Angerer, Hunter and Edds started cleaning up and punishing Clay and Ball. They punished receivers when Tolzien could complete a pass over the middle and forced him to make bad throws by playing excellent coverage by getting great depth in their drops. I don't know if Edds has ever played better. He should get half of Spievey's first pick.
Rick Kaczienski: I probably murdered his name as I am going off of memory. He is Iowa's Dline coach and he is doing a masterful job of coaching his unit. Something that I think is underappreciated is the amount of passes this unit is knocking down or altering by jumping. Binns and Edds forced Tolzien out for a loss once but it happened because Binns jumped up instead of continuing to pursue giving Edds the time to force the QB out of bounds. Against Michigan Binns had two pass deflections and one was almost picked. Klug had one early against Wisconsin. Inserting Mike Daniels early in the game giving Klug and Ballard some rest seemed to keep both fresh and Daniels was a real difference maker. I would guess he played his way into the regular rotation. I would look to see more of Lebron Daniel and Cody Hundertmark for the rest of the season if not this week, than against Indiana and Northwestern.
Rick Stanzi: Stanzi played very well. I have no negative marks in my game notes about him. Even the fumble was really not his fault. The rush got to him so fast he really didn't have a chance to react. He really seems to be more comfortable away from Kinnick which should bode well for Iowa this week. He was really on target and on time with all of his throws and used the whole field. He showed decent pocket awareness and used his feet to get out of trouble and scrambled to make the biggest play of the game offensively for Iowa the 24 yard TD to Moeaki.
Adam Robinson: Robinson has really impressed me with his vision which may be the single most important attribute for a runner in Iowa's system. He really finishes his runs well too. Robinson just seems to have a better feel at this time for where the hole is going to be and for when to hit it. He also seems to have a little something for the first guy who makes contact with him and runs through traffic extremely well. It may be time for defined roles for Iowa's freshman duo. If Robinson is up to the extra work Iowa should give him two or three series in a row to see if he can handle the work load. If the rumors floating around about Wegher are true Iowa may not have a choice.
Coaching: I want to start with the good. Norm Parker set the tone early in this game by blitzing on the first third and long that Iowa forced. The result was a sack. Iowa looked a little shell shocked early and took some time adjusting to facing an old- fasioned power team, but once they did it was game over. When the Dline got their bearings and started pushing back Iowa took over the game. When Iowa is on schedule Defensively and forces third and longs they are much more aggresive than you might think. This tells me two things. Norm trusts this team- i.e. he is willing to play more players (more nickel and dime this season and last) and he thinks they are a good tackling team- he is more willing to blitz. He isn't always looking for the sack, just an early throw short of the chains.
Now the bad. The bad KOK was back in the first half. Real bad. Iowa was so predictable in fact that I think Wisconsin was probably calling out the plays. Iowa used 13 formations on Saturday. 2 of them were for passing only. Iowa really only has 4 basic running plays outside of the redzone. They can run those same plays out of any of the 11 other formations. One of the biggest problems I have is the slot receiver's motion. This is generally a dead give away to where Iowa is running the football. It is my opinion that Iowa would be better off running out of balanced formations or out of the 3 wr, 1 te, 1 back formation. They did this alot in the second half and had much more success running the football. They usually had the SLB out of the box. Teams are slanting their Dline and guessing correctly the direction of our zone run. It is amazing that neither Robinson nor Wegher have fumbled given how often they have been met 3-4 yards deep in the backfield. Iowa needs to continue to open games aggresive passing to soften up defenses and get the safety out of the box. KOK needs to be more creative formationally if he wants to continue to stubbornly run. At least run to the strong side of the formation more often than not where you have a numbers advantage. Don't try to be so tricky.
Finally KF had done a better job of managing the clock so far this season but this week was kind of a disaster. Iowa did not run a two minute offense with the ball at the end of the first half, punted stopped the Badgers, called two TOs, didn't like the Field Position and ran out the clock. Run the two minute offense the first time. Or don't call the Time outs. Or at least try to block the punt. That was just bewildering. Finally the last offensive play was a qb keeper where Reisner was wide open for a TD. There was a spirited debate about what KF's smile meant. I don't care what it meant, I still remember Northwestern 2005, and you score TDs when you can. That was inexcusable. If you trust Stanzi you let him throw the ball there. A JV QB could have made that play.
Ferentz is a very good coach but that kind of coaching is what lets Iowa be 16 points away from being undefeated last season and 9 points from being 4 and 3 this season. It is time to start putting teams away when they have a chance. Great win, great effort, just need better management and some tweaks for this to be a very special season. 11 in a row.
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