Indiana comes into this game 4 and 4. They are coming off of a crushing loss to Northwestern blowing a 28 to 3 lead with 7:32 left to go in the 2nd quarter and have lost four of their last five. The only Big Ten win they possess is over Illinois (27- 14 in Bloomington) who is melting down this season. They were in the game versus Michigan. The only game I remembered to dvr was Northwestern. I have seen bits and pieces of the Michigan, Western Michigan, and Ohio State games.
Offensively Indiana runs a spread based scheme using a "Pistol" Shotgun set. The QB sets up four yards behind the center and the TB is directly behind him. This allows for more traditional running schemes and "downhill" style running plays and more convincing playaction out of shotgun snaps. They use two Tight Ends 30 to 40% of the time. They also use a lot of 3 wide receiver and 4 wide receiver sets regardless of the down. They really like the "Trips" formation to the wide side of the field. This season the Hoosiers most explosive plays have come from the running game with TB Darius Willis having the most success. Demetrius McCray also has a 56 yard TD run. In short yardage situations the Hoosiers bring in a hybrid of the "Wildcat" consisting of two extra lineman, 2 TE, and a WR and it is quarterbacked by #5 WR Mitch Evans. Evans can throw but usually they are running a form of the read option out of this formation. They have a couple of variations of this formation but the results generally consist of little to no gain. The passing game is based on short to mid range throws and is looking to get the receiver open with the ability to get yards after the catch. They like to flood one side of the field and give the QB an easy read with 3 options within his vision. The three top receivers account for 66% of the teams receptions. The runningbacks have not been involved in the passing game this season. They don't attack down the field often.
Defensively the Hoosiers run a base 4-3. Against Northwestern who ran 4- 5 wide sets all of the time they moved their FS Nick Polk to WLB and played back up Collin Taylor at FS. They usually rush 4 and play zone coverages. They almost always had their two safties playing deep coverage but I haven't seen them play a power running scheme. Indiana has two very good D-ends and they must be accounted for. Kirlew especially is very good and they move him inside on obvious passing downs. Indiana doesn't have a clear cut starter opposite of Ray Fisher at Corner and this could be a potential spot for Iowa to attack. Starting WLB Will Patterson is also injured but may try to play. Mayberry and Replogle are decent linebackers but make most of their plays beyond the line of scrimmage.
Now for the Matchups:
79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 57 Jammie Kirlew 6'3 263 SR RE, 92 Greg Middleton 6'3 285 LE SR, 51 Terrance Thomas 6'1 263 JR LE: Kirlew is the star of this group. He is relentless and athletic. He lines up most of the time at right end but he and Middleton will swap on occasion. Against Northwestern on Third and Longs Kirlew moved inside and Terrance Thomas played left end although he is not listed on this weeks depth chart. Kirlew uses his arms well on the pass rush and has a variety of moves. He is also stout against the run although he doesn't possess the elite quickness of either Graham or Scholfield who haven given Iowa fits. Middleton has some impressive physical skills but he takes plays off. He looks disinterested if the play isn't a pass or a run to his side. He doesn't pursue if the play is away from him. He if very strong and can set the edge in the run game. He can be run out of the play on the pass rush. Thomas was a non factor when he was in the game. Bulaga has not had the year that many have expected him to, but he has had a lot to overcome with injuries in camp and an in- season illness. He played very well last week in both phases and may be getting his conditioning and timing back. Calloway has been rock- solid most of the season and continued his strong play last week. He draws the easier of the two assignments in Middleton but neither is in for an easy day.
For those of you unfamiliar with these articles I post as spudhawk and Spud's Spin: is my projection of what will happen in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Bulaga and Calloway are just rounding into form and have faced tougher competition in the last three weeks. Kirlew is a beast and Middleton is physically talented but I think the fight may be out of Indiana after last weeks debacle. They are very good pass rushers but I have a feeling Iowa is going to want to pound the ball to see if they can. Look for more short side zone running plays.
77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs.DTS 98 Adam Replogle 6'3 265 FR, 97 Larry Black Jr. 6'2 312 R.FR, 69 Mick Mentzer 6'4 304 R.FR, and 75 Nicholas Sliger 6'3 295 R.FR: These guys are all very young and with the exception of Adam Replogle, the younger brother of linebacker Tyler, very big. They are also very inexperienced and can be pushed around despite their size. They don't seem to rush the passer at all. Replogle and Black are listed as the starters but they all rotate in an equal number of snaps it seems. It doesn't seem to be situational. I think that Eubanks is coming off of his best two games as a Hawkeye. I have been tough on him so far this season but he has really stepped it up in the last two games. Reiff and Vandervelde have struggled in the run game at times this season but have held up pretty well in pass protection. Both will be outweighed by everyone, except Replogle, significantly in this game but could have the strength edge due to time with Coach Doyle.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This could be the weekend that Iowa's run game get's fat and happy. Even missing Robinson and Richardson, Iowa's interior should be able to win at the line of scrimmage in both phases- run and pass. Eubanks needs to be aware of Mayberry and Tyler Replogle blitzing but they almost always show when they are coming.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 46 Tyler Replogle 6'2 231 JR SLB: Replogle is a physical football player and he has decent range. He gets decent depth in his zones and is rarely asked to cover one on one. He has trouble shedding blocks though and Moeaki has twenty lbs. and 3 inches of height on him. Indiana should take a page out of MSU's playbook and not line him up right over T.M. That freed up Gordon to flow to the ball and forced Moeaki to go out and seek him, not fire out of his stance and drive him off the snap. This is Replogle's first season as a full time starter but he has had some impressive games including a 19 tackle perfomance last season against Purdue.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Moeaki has a huge edge in physical ability and experience. He should win in both phases blocking and if they are matched in the pass game. If they are matched one on one in pass coverage with no safety help Stanzi must find him. I think it would be more likely that it would be Polk or Thomas but I still like Moeaki in any match up versus this defense in the pass game.
36 Brett Morse FB and 82 Allen Reisner TE Vs. WLBs Will Patterson 6'1 236 SR and Justin Carrington 6'0 225 SR: Will Patterson is battling a hand or arm injury. In the Tuesday press conference Coach Lynch was non-commital about playing Patterson. He is a three year starter and a difference maker. Carrington is listed as the starter on the depth chart and brings a lot of speed to the position having moved there from tailback. I never saw him in the game versus Northwestern. Carrington has some experience and is in his third year playing the position but had only one career start entering the season.
Spud's Spin: Push if Patterson plays and edge Iowa if Carrington is the starter. Both Reisner and Morse have been flying under the radar for the Hawks this season but are run blocking at a very high level. But Patterson is very good in pass coverage and diagnoses very well. Carrington is athletic but I don't think he has the experience to win the matchup against these two in the run game and could be vulnerable to playaction passes.
WRs 15 DJK 86 Trey Stross Marvin McNutt, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 7 Ray Fisher 5'9 185 SR, 23 Adrian Burks 6'0 175 JR, 22 Andre LaGrone 6'0 185 SO, 6 Richard Council 6'1 201 JR, and 10 Donnel Jones 5'10 210 SO: This is the weak point of the Hoosiers. Fisher has successfully tranisitioned from receiver to corner and is a suprisingly sound tackler. He is very good in both man and zone coverage. His biggest problem is his size. Jones was the starter before suffering an injury and is unlikely to go. Council started versus Northwestern and was repeatedly victimized by Andrew Brewer on third downs. He gave a healthy cushion when Indiana elected to Blitz and gave up completion after completion. Burks was put on the #1 line this week on the depth chart but Lynch said that there would be competition this week in practice and didn't rule out Council regaining his starting role. DJK, Stross, and McNutt each had huge catches in the game winning drive in the MSU game and should be feeling confident about this game. Something else that I would like to point out is although Iowa hasn't broken a long run it isn't this units' fault. These guys have been blocking very, very well. Colin Sandeman, also, should be singled out and even though he can't go, he has done and outstanding job of run blocking all season. He is usually the Flanker when Iowa runs the Two Tight I formation and he has executed all season.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Iowa should win in both phases. If they get single covered a double move could equal six. Iowa should attack downfield if either of the safeties appear in the box. If they get a big cushion a broken tackle on a short pass could still be a big play. I forsee a big day for DJK.
TBs 3 Brandon Wegher and 25 Paki O'Meara Vs. 43 Matt Mayberry 6'2 244 SR: Mayberry is a very solid run defender and has good size. He takes on and sheds lineman well. He diagnoses the run and fills a hole very well and can make a tackle with someone on his hip. He struggles in pass coverage and doesn't have good makeup speed. He is vulnerable to playaction and struggles getting good depth in pass coverage. He is not a natural pass rusher- thinking his way to the QB. He is a physical tackler. Wegher will get his chance to be the man this week as Robinson is likely done until the Bowl game. I thought he had his best game of the season last week, running more patient and hitting the hole with an incredible burst. His screen pass was a thing of beauty. I would love to see more of the 5 wide formation this week versus this team. He is a matchup nightmare for this defense. Nick Polk is the only defender who has a prayer of defending him. Paki gets his chance to get back into the mix. He has done a nice job on special teams and will probably get 8 to 10 carries in this game. I think he will do okay, but he is the only Hawk tailback to lose a fumble this season. He better not do that this week or we could actually see Rogers or Brown take off their redshirts.
Spud's Spin: Edge Indiana. As good as I think Wegher is I haven't seen him carry the mail. Mayberry is a tough and smart football player who is going to hit Wegher repeatedly. If Wegher goes down that leaves Iowa with a Walk-on who hasn't carried the ball since week one and two true freshman who haven't played a down all season. My guess would be a lot of Brett Morse and two tight ends. Lets hope Wegher stays healthy.
12 Ricky Stanzi QB VS. 8 Nick Polk 6'0 225 FS and 20 Austin Thomas 6'2 221 SS: Polk is a very good athlete and will probably play on Sundays. Thomas is a very good college football player and a thorn in Iowa's side. They are both smart and versatile and can play the other's responsibilities. Thomas isn't extremely fast but makes up for it by diagnosing plays and reading the qb very well. He is a hitter. He causes turnovers. Polk is very fast and also packs a punch. He also caught a pass last week that might have been the longest pass play for the Hoosiers this season. Stanzi needs to be aware of these guys on the field and where they line up and what it means. He can't let them bait him into bad audibles or into throwing into double coverage. This will probably be the best safety tandem he will face all season. He must look these guys off before throwing deep.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I think that Stanzi is playing his best football right now and coming off of his best three game stretch of his career. Something he doesn't get enough credit for is his audibilizing and he has done a very good job of that this season. Even though his numbers weren't pretty against MSU his reads were usually the correct one and I can live with physical mistakes or great plays by the other team. He attacked the weak points of the MSU defense all game and they rose to the occasion. I am generally hard on KOK but so far this season he has done a nice job of gameplanning and getting plays in on time- giving Stanzi time to look over the defense and get out of bad plays, something that hasn't always been the case. I think Iowa is going to emphasize the running game against Indiana but that could lead to some big plays for Ricky in the playaction game. I think that it will.
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 76 Roger Saffold 6'5 306 LT SR and 73 James Brewer 6'8 338 RT JR: Saffold is entering is 3rd year as a starter and is a pretty solid pass blocker. He did a pretty good job on NW's Corey Wooten but he had tight end help some of the time. He generated a pretty decent push in the first half in the run game but didn't do much that was noticable in the second half in the run game. Brewer is huge. He is a very good run blocker if he gets his hands on his man. He has a tendency to overextend and get off balance. He has decent feet but can be beaten around the edge. Most of Indiana's big runs this season have come on his side. Clayborn has owned just about everyone he has faced this season. He is Iowa's most dominant DE since Matt Roth. Binns may be Iowa's smartest and fundamentally sound DE ever. I have never seen a d-lineman knock down so many passes or be in the passing lane. I also love where they are playing him on field goals and extrapoints.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. This is a no doubter. If Northwestern was generating pressure with a 4 man rush than Indiana is in trouble here. Clayborn and Binns are going to be in the backfield more often than Darius Willis.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs 70 Justin Pagan 6'5 311 LG SO, 60 Will Matte 6'2 284 C R.FR, 59 Mike Reiter 6'2 300 RG SR: This is another unit that lacks a ton of experience. They have been playing pretty well and Pagan looks like he could be a very solid player. Reiter and Pagan do a lot of pulling on running plays and are athletic enough to get out and reach linebackers. When they down block they do a decent job of sealing and then look to get downfield and hit someone on the next level. Matte is pretty quick and a decent run blocker. They are all adequate for what they are asked to do in pass protection which is protect for about 3 seconds. If Chappell holds onto the ball any longer he is usually in trouble. They do a poor job of selling playaction pass. Ballard is coming off of his best game at his new position. On almost every play on my game chart I have something positive written down about him. Klug also played his usual quietly good game. I thought I would see more of Daniels but I don't have him written in on my notes other than goalline but I could have missed a rotation.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Edge Iowa. Ballard's strength and explosiveness will be too much for Pagan and Matte to handle. Klug and Ballard could pile up tackles for losses shooting the gap when they pull their guards on running plays and I don't think they can consistently pass protect against these two.
42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. TEs 41 Max Dedmond 6'5 233 SO and 87 Troy Wagner 6'5 271: Dedmond and Wagner might as well be extra lineman. Dedmond has 13 catches in 8 games and I saw Wagner go out for one pass the entire game. Wagner is big enough to play tackle though and is a very good run blocker. He also pass protects very well and makes for an effective double-team. I would guess Clayborn should be ready to see him often. Hunter was a beast versus MSU. My favorite part of watching the recording was watching him slam into the fullback. When he keys run he attacks the line of scrimmage and destroys whoever is in his way. He also has improved on his pass coverage so much that I don't even sweat when we decide to not play Nickel anymore. I just wish he had held on to that interception because that was 6 points and would have changed the complexion of that entire game.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. Hunter is playing his best football and has the athleticism to make up for a false step in his aggressiveness to play the run. He doesn't make a lot of bad reads he just wants to hit somebody- Hard. I am not sure that Dedmond can block him and that Chappell will be looking for his tight end enough to exploit any potential weakness in Iowa's zone. And if he does it is likely a 4 yard gain.
49 A.J. Edds SLB, 19 Amari Spievey RCB, 28 Shaun Prater LCB, and 10 Willie Lowe NCB Vs. WRs 88 Damario Belcher 6'5 209 SO, 2 Tandon Doss 6'3 197 SO, 1 Terrance Turner 6'3 207 JR , 5 Mitch Evans 6'3 197 JR, 15 Matt Ernest 6'2 187 SO: Edds is going to be lined up over a slot receiver pretty much the entire day. I didn't see a balanced formation from Indiana the entire day against Northwestern. Belcher is the Split or outside receiver. Doss and Turner usually play the slots. Belcher reminds me of a slower less explosive James Hardy. He is really tall and can break tackles. Doss and Turner are very quick and have good size. They aren't polished route runners yet and they rely upon their athleticism to get open. They are also looking to catch and run. These three are the guys who are on the field most of the time. Evans comes in when they go 4 wide. Ernest is supposed to be the fastest guy on the team but I never noticed him or saw a ball thrown his way. After struggling some early in the season Iowa has become a very good tackling team. It will be important for that to continue Saturday as Indiana is going to try to create one on one match ups for these guys to exploit. Edds and Spievey are playing at an All Big Ten level. Prater is playing very, very well especially for a true sophmore in his first year starting. Willie Lowe has also come on late in the year and is steadily progressing.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Indiana should hope they are constantly on the left hash 'cause they don't want to throw Spievey's way. If they end up on the right has they should just run one of their sweeps to the left and not worry about how many yards they get. Spievey and Sash on the same side = turnover for them.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 28 Darius Willis 6'0 218 R.FR, 27 Bryan Payton 5'9 207 SR, and 22 Demetrius McCray 5'11 200 SR: Willis has become the man. Payton and McCray occasionally spot him but Willis is the future and the now of Indiana football. He has good size, runs with power and has very good speed. If he gets a crease he is gone. He has two long TD runs including an 85 yard burst versus Michigan. They have some pretty fast guys of their own up in Ann Arbor. He is also injury prone and still inexperienced and will be facing the most physical defense he has ever seen. Payton and McCray are basically the same player. They are tough shifty runners who try to make you miss and have trouble breaking tackles. Angerer had a very good game against MSU. He played his usual good pass coverage but he is playing the run much better than I expected him to this season. He is playing much more physical than I expected and he is shedding O'lineman and making plays much better this season. He is rarely taken out of a play.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Indiana tends to throw more than pass but I think Angerer will get his share of the tackles in both phases of the game. He reads his keys as well as any linebacker in recent memory and may have the most speed of anyone to play his position ever. After the season he is having he (and the quotes) he will go down as one of the all- time great Hawkeyes.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs. 4 Ben Chappell 6'3 235 QB JR: Chappell is a traditional drop back passer. This is sort of the reason Indiana installed the "Pistol" formation. He is not mobile. He is not Kellen Lewis. He will scramble as a last resort but is more likely to throw the ball away when pressured. He does a nice job of reading the field and going through his progressions. He can look off coverage if he has time. He has a very strong arm and can squeeze the ball into tight spots and can throw the ball to the outside from the opposite hash. However he needs a clean pocket to work, he is not accurate if he is forced of his "spot." He needs his footwork to be clean and throws an ugly ball off of his back foot. He is not usually pressured into bad decisions. Sash and Greenwood have been allowed to do more this season than last. Both have blitzed some (Greenwood more than Sash) and both have played in the box. Chappell hasn't played a ton of college football and these two could really mess with his head if they line up somewhere beside 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. They really need to tackle well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. If Greenwood is completely healthy that would be a bonus but Sash is enough by himself. Chappell is a decent player but so far he hasn't beaten a decent team and the Hoosiers' were pounded by the two toughest defenses they faced- Ohio State and Virginia. If early in the game Chappell overthrows one ball over the middle Kinnick goes crazy. If he misreads one coverage when Sash or Greenwood are dropping late and throws a pick his team won't bounce back. He has to play a perfect game against a defense that bets you can't. Michigan State just used up all the luck. I almost feel sorry for him.
Some terrible predictions
1. Iowa fair catches every punt.
2. Iowa's defense scores two times.
3. Ricky Stanzi averages over 10 yards an attempt.
4. Paki O'meara will score a rushing TD
5. Indiana's only score will come on a Ray Fisher Kick off Return.
I know that this is really long. I have been doing these in two parts and if you have survived to the end of this I thank you. Here is my final prediction: Iowa 38 Indiana 13 and still no love from the national media.
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