Iowa Vs. Iowa State The Match Ups Part II

 Here is the player vs player match up section.

94 Adrian Clayborn RDE 6'4 285 SR and 91 Broderick Binns LDE 6'2 291 JR \/ Christian Ballard LDE 6'5 297 SR vs. 72 Kelechi Osemele LT 6'5 335 JR and 79 Brayden Burris RT 6'6 290 SO : Osemele is a big, big guy.  He plays with some fire.  He isn't real agile in the run game, he is looking to lean on players and either push them down-field or seal them from the play.  In pass protection he sets up fairly quickly and has a very good punch, he has pretty good feet for his size and his very wide so he can be tough to get around.  He is tough to bull because of his quick set and his anchor.  Burris is a new starter.  He struggled a bit versus NIU and was beaten to the outside a couple of times giving up a sack on a bullrush.  He has a tendency to set his feet in pass protection relying on his hands instead. He is a fairly agile run blocker and physical- he can move the pile and is adept at sealing his guy away from the play.  Much has been made of the struggles that Iowa's defensive line had against ISU last season but both Binns and Ballard should be a difficult match up for Burris in this game. Watching Clayborn and Osemele go at it may be more fun than the game itself.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- Clayborn didn't begin to emerge as a force until after this game when he ran down Arizona's Grigsby in his own backfield.  Arnaud may get rid of the ball to fast to take a sack this week but he will surely feel some heat from both ends.  Burris will have all he can handle regardless of who is lined up across from him.

46 Christian Ballard 6'5 297 SR/ Mike Daniels 6'1 275 JR  and 95 Karl Klug 6'4 270 SR DTs vs 77 Alex Alvarez LG 6'2 305 SR, 63 Ben Lamaak C  6'4 320, and 75 Hayworth Hicks RG 6'3 330: The Cyclones interior played pretty well last week, especially in pass protection.  They showed great communication and seamlessly passed defenders on stunts.  Alvarez and Lamaak were very mobile on both runs and screen plays.  Alvarez is probably smaller than his listed size and can be overwhelmed at times by a power rush, but protected Arnaud well.  He showed very good initial quickness and good lateral movement when pulling and getting to the second level.  Lamaak really finished blocks well.  He did a good job on their zone scheme and calling their blocking schemes.  He looks to have made the transition from guard to center pretty easily.  Hicks is another very big guy. He isn't real mobile but he is hard to run around.  He doesn't get to the second level often but he isn't asked to often in this scheme.  If he gets set up and gets his arms on someone they are done.  Daniels didn't look like a guy making his first start last week.  He got off of blocks very well and found the ball quickly.  Klug played his quietly spectacular game reading the lineman and backs and finding the ball almost all the time.  He rarely stayed blocked. Hicks will be making a big jump in competition this week also especially when Ballard is lined up across from him.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- this is the kind of offense where people will see how good Klug and Ballard really are.  Klug, Ballard and Daniels are going to have to bottle up the interior zone run that ISU bases their offense on. Rarely have I seen DTs find the ball or understand what an offense is trying to accomplish as well as Klug or Ballard.  If Iowa is going to control ISU's offense these three for Iowa must do the controlling and I think they will.




45 Tyler Nielsen LEO 6'4 235 JR and 28 Shaun Prater 5'11 180 JR, 18 Micah Hyde 6'1 185 SO, 2 Greg Castillo 5'11 180 SO, 10 Willie Lowe JR CBs vs. 2 Sedrick Johnson 6'3 209 JR, 83 Jake Williams 6'2 203 SR, 6 Darius Darks 6'1 189 JR, 7 Darius Reynolds 6'2 205 JR, 19 Josh Lenz 6'0 188 SO WRs: One thing to note here ISU's main formation is a 3x1 with Franklin on the same side as two wide outs.  They generally have 2 Sed Johnson as the Split or single, 88 Franklin close to the formation, slot 6 Darks and Flank 83 Jake Williams on the field.  Lenz and Reynolds see some time in all three of the receiver positions but are mostly split time with Darks and Williams.  Johnson seems to be the standout of this group.  He is very athletic.  He can adjust to a poorly thrown ball, can go up and get it, high pointed a ball on a designed back shoulder throw, they are looking to isolate him, very thickly built.  Williams runs clean routes, catches the ball away from his frame and secures the ball before trying to make a play.  Doesn't look to have great run after the catch ability but scrapes up some yards with effort.  Darks finds soft spots in zones, runs good routes, really cuts well, catches the ball well, has some shake after the catch.  Reynolds runs sloppy routes, gives away where he is going, had a really dumb penalty last week.  Lenz had a nice run after the catch last week but isn't a primary option.  More of a returner at this time.  Hyde struggled last week on one drive.  He got burned on a double move.  The TD he gave up he got got peeking in and lost track of his man but that was  along time to cover anyone.  I am sure he will play better this week.  I thought he was pretty physical in the run game.  Nielsen was pretty impressive in his debut setting the edge well, shedding blocks and showing great acceleration.  Castillo also was much more physical this season compared to a year ago.  Still I would feel much more comfortable with Prater in at corner.  ISU is going to attack the edges.  Prater is a known quantity.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa State- this isn't by too much but ISU has an experience edge here even if Prater is back.  I doubt that Hyde gets burned deep again, but there is that chance that he is matched up against Sed Johnson one on one.  He needs to win that match up.  Tyler Nielsen is also going to make a big leap in competition this week.  He is capable but the speed of the game is going to increase greatly for him and ISU is going to have to attack the edges.  If Castillo or Lowe are forced into action I am confident they are capable but they must tackle well against both the run and the pass.



42 Jeremiha Hunter WILL 6'2 235 SR vs. 88 Collin Franklin TE 6'5 252 SR: Franklin was the star of the Clones passing game last week and I thought he shined as a blocker as well.  He secures the ball well away from his frame and can adjust to a poorly thrown ball.  He can do something with the ball in his hands and is pretty athletic for his size.  He sets up his routes well and cuts very well for his size.  He is a better blocker on the move than from a traditional "y" on the line TE position.  He is very good at hitting a moving linebacker or defensive back but struggles with defensive lineman.  Hunter looks more flexible.  He did a good job in his zone drops and was lined up on the slot receiver more often than I have seen the last two seasons.  He has always been a very good chase and tackle defender and takes good angles to plays.  Hunter won't always be lined up over Franklin, many times this will be either Tarp/Davis or Nielsen's match up. 
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa State- Franklin is a very good tight end.  I wasn't sure how much a TE would be utilized in this offense but I think that he will be exploited early and often on Saturday.  Iowa must make sure he doesn't rack up a lot of yards after the catch and be content to let him have his three or four yard gains.



33 Jeff Tarpinian 6'3 238 SR/ 57 Bruce Davis 6'0 232 JR MIKE vs. 33 Alexander Robinson 5'9 191 SR and 25 Shontrelle Johnson 5'9 182 FR TBs: Robinson is really what makes this offense go.  He is a very shifty runner and can make a lot out of a very little hole.  He is a very good receiver and a pretty good pass blocker to boot.  He runs very low, rarely take a clean shot, almost always falls forward, very good initial burst and good lateral quickness, very good vision, he is a patient runner.  He has good hands, and gets his head around quickly making himself available quickly as an outlet.  Although he gets up to speed quickly once he is there that is about all that there is, he doesn't have elite speed, he isn't going to outrun too many dbs or even elite linebackers.  He plays hurt.  Johnson is still pretty unknown, he returns kicks and made a nice run after a catch last week making a couple of moves on defenders.  He probably won't play much unless Robinson is injured. Tarp had a great game versus ISU playing in Iowa's 3-4.  I am guessing he will get the start as the Mike LB in this game.  I think Iowa will focus more on stopping the run in this game and he is going to have to be a big part of that.  If the D-line can tie up ISU's O-line he has to clean up Robinson on the interior runs.  He is fast enough to take a false step or two and still make his drop into coverage.  If Davis stopping the run is specialty so he may need to be more concerned with reading his pass keys. 
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa State- Robinson will probably get loose once.  The key for Iowa is that they limit it to an eight or ten yard gain and the linebackers play well enough that they can keep the safeties deep and not involved in run support consistently.  Both of these guys are capable but Robinson will be amongst the top runners they will face all season.



9 Tyler Sash SS 6'1 210  JR and 30 Brett Greenwood FS 6'0 200 SR vs. 4 Austen Arnaud 6'3 230 QB SR: Arnaud had a nightmare game last season in Ames. He is a much better player than he showed last season but there are still some issues with his game he needs to iron out.  He has a very good release, strong arm when he has space to deliver, excellent footwork in the pocket, good awareness while being rushed keeps his eyes down-field, fairly accurate on the perimeter from 15 yards and in. Very good with ball fakes on both play-action and on the read option, very patient with his zone read, nimble feet as a runner, physical and comfortable in traffic as a runner not afraid of contact.  Arnaud struggles throwing over the middle, especially putting the ball over a defender.  He is great if he can throw on a line, but if he needs to put touch on the ball he, or anticipate a throw he really struggles.  He can't seem to work the deep middle of the field.  Greenwood and Sash are a very good tandem and really seem to work well together.  They read keys well and really support the run well.  They get great depth on their zone drops and are fast enough to still make an impact on the run game.  They both rarely miss a tackle and Sash was really physical last week.  Greenwood has started all but two games in his career and Sash is entering his third year as a starter.
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa- this will be a huge edge for the Hawks if the front seven is able to control the running game without their help.  If they are able to sit back again and read Arnaud and provide help over the top for the young corners this will make this a much more difficult game for Arnaud.  Arnaud hasn't yet shown that he can be patient for an entire game and take what the defense gives him or sail a ball at the wrong time.  If he makes a poor decision or two or is pressured into a mistake Sash and Greenwood will be waiting with open arms.



77 Riley Reiff LT 6'6 300sO  and  Markus Zusevics RT 6'5 295 JR vs. 29 Rashawn Parker RDE 6'0 250 SR and 91 Patrick Neal LDE 6'1 235 SR: Parker may be most famous to Iowa fans for the hit that Marshall Yanda laid on him on the reverse in the 2006 game.  He played last season but suffered a season ending injury and received a medical red shirt and is back for his 5th Cy-Hawk game.  He will stand up and drop occasionally and looks comfortable doing it.  Very active and good in pursuit, very patient on twists, shows a good first step, looking to beat a lineman with speed, doesn't show a lot of moves- constantly trying to run around a defender, can run himself out of plays.  Neal is pretty undersized and can be pushed around at times, sheds TEs at times, good first step, will play his gap just doesn't always look for the ball, anther hustle player- ran several plays down from behind.  Reiff played well last week and looks natural as a tackle.  He may have to be ready for some exotic blitzes this week and be ready to pick up a variety of stunts.  He should be able to handle anyone lined up in front of him in the run game.  Zusevics looked pretty comfortable last week showing good feet and solid quickness in the run game.  He should be able to handle Neal but what I am concerned with is his ability to recognize and pick up the blitz.  Jake Knott really flashed and he could be a handful for any of Iowa's lineman to handle if he were to attack on the edge or come on a delayed blitz.  The physical part of the game should come easy for Zusevics but for a guy making only his second start ISU's defense could present some difficulty.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- physically this is an edge for Iowa.  I think they will be prepared for what is going to be thrown at them and I think the game-plan will not put too much on the young offensive lineman too soon. I think if Iowa can have some success early that it will snowball and eventually they can just wear down a young defense and dominate them physically with the run.



63 Julian Vandervelde LG 6'3 300 SR, 53 James Ferentz C 6'2 275 SO, and 73 Adam Gettis RG 6'4 280 JR/ 76 Nolan MacMillan RG 6'6 295 R.FR vs. 97 Stephen Ruempolhamer 6'3 280 JR, 85 Bailey Johnson 6'2 285 SR, and Jake McDonough 6'5 288 SO DTs: Ruempolhamer looks to be the standout of this group.  Has a good get off- good first step and sees the play well.  Flows down the line well and avoids traffic well for his size, if he doesn't generate a pass rush is aware enough to get his hands in the air- tipped a couple of NIU passes, he was the one ISU D-lineman to consistently find the ball at the LOS.  Another hustler constantly in on plays way down-field.  Johnson was the other starter.  He fought a lot of double teams and got pushed around a few times.  He found himself sideways a lot and was easily sealed away from several runs.  Didn't seem to be too involved in the pass rush.  McDonough got a consistent push when he was in, another hustler, high energy took himself out of some plays with aggressiveness.  Johnson usually lined up over the center and was forced to take on the doubles versus NIU freeing Ruempolhamer to get a one on one match up.  They switched sides depending on how NIU lined up.  Vandervelde played very well last week in both phases. If he can remain healthy I look forward to a strong senior campaign from him.  Ferentz was pushed around at times early in this game but EIU actually had a bigger DT than ISU. For the most part he did the pushing.  He did a good job in pass protection and with his line calls.  He was excellent on the second level.  MacMillan was also very consistent in pass protection and at times excellent in the run game.  He showed a very good short are burst and good lateral movement.  Gettis played more than people realize last season.  He started versus UNI but saw action in five other games and not just mop up time either.  Gettis has been consistently singled out for praise by the coaching staff so if he is good to go I think he will start.  The last player to receive this kind of praise was Reiff.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- the Hawks need to own this match up and these guys need to consistently hit their targets at the second level to make the play-action game viable.  Stanzi and Ferentz need to communicate and read the blitz and if they do this should be a very good day for the Hawks.



15 Derrell Johnson- Koulianos 6'1 200 SR, 7 Marvin McNutt 6'4 215 JR, 22 Colin Sandeman 6'1 200 SR, 6 Keenan Davis 6'3 215 SO, and 26 Paul Chaney 5'9 170 SR WRs vs. 23 Leonard Johnson 5'10 195 JR, 5 Jeremy Reeves 5'7 168 SO, 4 Anthony Young 5'8 172 JR CBs:  Ter'Ran Benton lost his grandmother this week and I would like to send my condolences to he and his family.  He would normally be the starter opposite of Leonard Johnson and slides to cover the slot receiver when they play Nickel.  Both Reeves and Young saw quite a bit of time last week against NIU and both should have been burned often.  Johnson is a very steady corner.  I don't think ISU knows what they have in the secondary yet as NIU couldn't complete a pass beyond fifteen yards last week.  DJK, McNutt, and Sandeman all looked pretty sharp last week.  Davis looked very good last year in this game and then didn't really garner much consistent PT after that game.  I haven't seen enough of Chaney to determine if he has regained all of his speed and his cutting ability from his ACL injury.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- this is the biggest mismatch of the game.  Iowa should figure out if Johnson and Sims are on the same side and just attack the other corner over and over to see how they hold up.  It doesn't matter who is at receiver and whether it is Reeves or Young.  I expect ISU to blitz a ton to try to take pressure off of the secondary but if the Hawks can pick it up they should be able to exploit this match up for very big gains. Here is a fun stat ISU's starting receiver's total 10 TDs for their career.  McNutt had 8 last season. 



82 Allen Reisner 6'3 248 SR and 39 Brad Herman 6'5 247 JR TEs and 36 Brett Morse FB 6'3 238 SR vs. 47 A.J. Klein SAM 6'1 240 SO and 20 Jake Knott WILL 6'2 240: Klein and Knott played very well last week, especially Knott who was all over the field.  Knott had two picks and seemed to be involved in every tackle.  He has great speed for his position, diagnoses plays well, sifts through traffic well, gets great depth on his zone drops, and rarely misses a tackle- really squares himself up well.  Klein isn't quite as fast or agile but he is a tick more physical, he doesn't shed blocks quite as well but still tends to find his way to the ball, can break down in space and make a tackle, takes pretty good angles, and finds his landmarks in obvious passing downs.  These two are the Nickel linebackers.  Reisner is a very underrated blocker.  He can be physical but he just does whatever it takes to get the job done.  Herman may have had a coming out party last weekend.  He blocked very well.  Morse is another steady player who does his job without needing to be noticed.  He was involved in the passing game early last season, too, I hope that is a trend that continues.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- experience, experience, experience. The Hawks have it and the Clones don't. Physically this might be a push but I think the Hawks will find either the tight ends behind these aggressive young linebackers in pass coverage on play-action or they will just seal them off during running plays as they run themselves out of plays with over-aggressiveness.


32 Adam Robinson 5'9 205 SO and 27 Jewel Hampton 5'9 210 SO TBs vs. 45 Matt Tau' fo' ou MIKE 5'11 239 JR: Matt (sorry) is a thickly built Mike is aggressive filling his lane.  He has good lateral quickness, decent straight-line speed and sheds blockers pretty well, however he didn't get involved in a lot of plays last week.  He also seem to struggle to get a proper drop after taking a false step on play-action.  He got lost often in traffic on edge runs but he hustled and made plays in pursuit.  Robinson played very well last week and gets lost in the shuffle with the expected return of Hampton.  Robinson is a very good blocker, catches the ball well, and runs between the tackles very, very well.  He is rarely taken down by first contact and his vision continues to improve.  Hampton is still somewhat of an unknown quantity but the coaches and media are very high on him.  In '08 he improved every game.  He runs angry.  He has a very similar style to Robinson only he may be a homerun hitter.  He looked very good catching passes in the spring and in the Big Ten Practice Show. 
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- lost in the shuffle last season was that Iowa had a pretty successful day on the ground last year too.  Although it was Wegher that did most of the damage, on of these two is bound to find a few creases and wear down this young defense especially in the second half. 


12 Ricky Stanzi QB 6'4 230 SR vs. 1 David Sims SS 5'9 204 SR and 37 Michael O'Connell FS 5'11 208 SR: Sims is a very good safety.  He had two picks in this game last season.  I have heard he is a cross between Ed Reed and some other famous guy.  He plays incredibly fast and diagnoses very well.  He doesn't get out of position often or miss too many tackles.  O'Connell is really aggressive, he sometimes takes some poor angles, he diagnoses plays pretty quickly and is looking to be a factor on run support.  He can struggle a bit in man coverage against a quick player, he missed a few tackles but he is playing hurt.  He is another hustler involved in almost every play.  Stanzi was playing an almost flawless game before he went down with the injury.  He still had incredible numbers.  He made great decisions all day but my favorite might have been a scramble for no gain on the second TD drive.  If he is as accurate versus ISU as he was versus EIU and has that kind of time to throw this game will be over in the early second quarter. Last year in this game he was shaky in the first half.  He missed open receivers and threw two picks in the first half. 
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- I truly think that we are going to see a different Stanzi this season.  He is going to make mistakes.  But they will more likely be physical ones, I think mental ones will be rare.  This is a defense that can be exploited and I think he will exploit it early and often.


Five terrible predictions
1. James Morris totals 3 tackles and FF on kick offs
2. One of Iowa's Defensive Lineman returns an interception for a TD in this game I vote Binns.
3. Alexander Robinson ends the touchdown streak in the third quarter.
4. Jeff Tarpinian leads the team with 11 tackles and a fumble recovery and a pick
5. Stanzi throws 3 TD passes in the first quarter Sandeman catches two.


This could be a tough game if Iowa starts slowly.  ISU will come into this game and they will probably throw the kitchen sink at Iowa.  Iowa's offensive line is far from proven.  ISU's defensive front seven is more athletic than they were last season.  There secondary is not, however, and they are much less experienced.  This is a much different and more confident Iowa defense also.  ISU has a right to come into this game confident.  They are a solid, well coached team.  This game can always be an emotional toss up type of game.
Spud's Spin: The Clones are just too thin at too many spots and too inexperienced on defense to win this game outright.  Even if they keep it close and make Iowa one dimensional, eventually Iowa is bound to take advantage of that one dimension in a big way.  Iowa's defense is well suited to defend this type of offense.  The d-line can control this style of option.  The safeties are experienced and fast enough to erase any mistakes the young corners might make.  And the linebackers are fast enough to defend the type of edge runs, screens, and quick hitting pass play this offense is designed to thrive on.  Final Score Iowa 38 ISU 13

Iowa Vs. Iowa State The Match Ups Part I

Both the Hawks and Clones enjoyed successful opening weekends.  Iowa dominated Eastern Illinois surviving a knee scare to QB Ricky Stanzi, and Iowa State survived three turnovers to relatively dominate Northern Illinois in a game that many expected them to lose.  While the Hawks are the heavy favorite in this game anyone who follows this series knows that anything can happen this Saturday.  I am going to try to shorten these a little this season.  I will at least write more about the opponent in the first several paragraphs for a sort of condensed version and then leave the rest for the hardcore readers (or for those of you who have a ton of time on your hands).

Iowa State runs a QB read- option based spread offense.  They run the "check with me" style where they set up on the line of scrimmage right away to possibly take advantage of a defensive substitution, and then read the defense and check with the offensive coaching staff to get a play call or audible.  All of their formations feature the shotgun snap.  They feature three main formations: a balanced four receiver set featuring a tight end as a flexed slot with the tailback lined up next to the quarterback, a three x one tight end set with the tight end flexed out next to the slot creating a trips set, and a balanced three x one tight end set with the tight end lined up on the line of scrimmage opposite of the slot.  They feature a couple of two tight end formations familiar to Iowa fans and a five wide set with both their regular personnel and five wides.

The basis of the run game is the QB read- option.  They block this play two ways- the standard zone and they pull the guard occasionally.  They run an outside option play, a counter that can be run off of motion or with the tailback lined up next to the QB, a couple of variations of a QB draw and a tailback draw, and finally a QB sneak that they like to run quickly while the defense is still setting up.  I am sure they have some slot and outside receiver reverses left in the playbook that we will see on Saturday.

This passing game features mostly quick passes and focuses on the perimeter of the defense. Most of their passes are completed inside of ten yards of the line of scrimmage.  ISU doesn't take a lot of shots down-field and when they do it is mostly done with either a moving pocket or play-action.  They run a lot of slip screens to any of the receivers, especially when they are lined up in some variation of a Trips formation.  The Clones do not attack the deep middle of the field often, out of lack of ability or scheme.

On defense the Cyclones run a base 4-3.  Last season ISU tried to stop Iowa with just their front seven and were pretty successful early in the game.  Versus NIU the Clones realized that Grady couldn't throw it into the ocean if he were deserted on an island and were able to play eleven in the box at times to try to stop the run.  I doubt that they try that versus Iowa but  wouldn't be surprised to see Sims or O'Connell walk up into the box occasionally on first or second down.  If ISU forces Iowa into obvious passing downs they switch to a basic Nickel defense shifting starting corner Ter' Ran Benton inside over a slot and taking Mike  Matt Tau 'fo 'ou off the field.  The Clones didn't show an extensive pressure package versus NIU but you can bet it's coming Saturday.  One thing worth noting was that if a DE was standing some sort of zone blitz was in the works.  One last thing about their defense.  They hustle.  Every player runs until the whistle blows. Defensive tackles and ends are involved in tackles twenty yards down-field or way across the field.  They are aggressive and might pick up some silly penalties but they are aggressive penalties. 

Special teams seems to be a work in progress in Cyclone land. Placekicker  Mahoney struggled with both his field goals and his kick off depth and the kick cover team was a little sluggish.  Iowa State's only punt traveled 18 yards.  Punt Returner Josh Lenz did a nice job of getting under the ball and showed a little flash on a short slant route.  Kick returner and corner Leonard Johnson is a very dangerous returner.  The other returner is freshman Shontrelle Johnson a tailback who showed a little shake on a catch out of the backfield.

The key match ups for Iowa in this game are as follows:
Micah Hyde versus Sedrick Johnson- Johnson is a big and physical wide out.  He can adjust well to a poorly thrown ball and is big enough to win a designed fade or jump ball.  ISU ran at least three designed Fades or back shoulder throws for him last week.  Hyde needs be ready to be tested and respond to a physical challenge.  Johnson isn't any tougher than DeMaryius Thomas and he played very well against him in limited PT in the Orange Bowl.
Arnaud versus Binns/ Ballard or Clayborn on the QB option keeper-  if Parker has the backside DE stay home and defend the QB on this play they must stop or at least slow Arnaud.  Austen is a load at 6'3 230 and he is shifty enough to usually make the first guy miss and fast enough to make plays with his feet.  If these guys can make take away this part of the play than the rest of the defense can concentrate on Robinson.  Last season Iowa used the outside linebackers as the contain on this play so it may be up to Hunter or Neilsen.  Whomever has this assignment must own it.
Robinson, Alvarez, Lamaak, Hicks versus Klug, Ballard/ Daniels, Tarpinian, Hunter- Iowa needs to stop this play without getting a safety involved.  Robinson hits hole quickly and he doesn't need a large crease to squirt through either.  Last season Robinson made a living on this play versus the Hawks.  Klug and Ballard are much better players than they were at this time last season and Daniels can rotate in with very little drop off.  Tarp is better known for his pass cover ability but this could solidify him in the minds of Hawk fans if he were to rise up and stuff this play multiple times on Saturday.  Hunter is a very instinctive run defender but he needs to stay home and kill any type of cutback to the weak side of the field.
Neilsen, Clayborn, Klug, Tarpinian versus Osmele, Alvarez, Lamaak, Franklin, Darks on edge runs- when ISU sees a numbers advantage to the wide side of the field and especially to the strong side of their line I think they will try to check into some type of run that attacks the edge.  It is imperative that Tyler Neilsen defeats his blocks or at leasts sets the edge at or near the line of scrimmage and turns the run back inside.  Clayborn and Klug should be able to win their match ups more often than not and Tarpinian needs to be shedding blocks and flowing downhill, too.
DJK, McNutt, Sandeman versus Benton, Young, Reeves- Benton is very aggressive and vulnerable to the deep ball and double moves. Both Young and Reeves gave a lot of cushion in limited PT versus NIU and Young should have given up a long TD on a straight post pattern.  All three of these receivers are more talented and experienced than these corners that will be covering them.  Leonard Johnson has a chance to match up but the other three do not consistently.
Reumpolhamer versus Gettis/ MacMillan or Vandervelde- Reumpolhamer was very active last Saturday.  He generated a good push, was active with his hands and managed to find the ball while crashing the line.  He was the one interior defensive lineman who generated a pass rush.  MacMillan played well on Saturday but the staff has been very high on Gettis, if he is good to go on Saturday it is a good bet we will see him.  Vandervelde also looked pretty good on Saturday.  If he can remain healthy he should be Iowa's leader and possibly Iowa's most consistent lineman. 

Part II will be the old version of the match ups syncing player versus player.

Iowa's New Buzzword Must Be Efficiency

For the Hawkeyes to live up to expectations they must be much more efficient this season. There are a ton of ways for football teams to score points, and good Iowa teams score in all three phases, but the bulk must come from an effective and efficient offense.  This post is going to concentrate on setting statistical benchmarks for this offense to achieve by looking back at the most successful Iowa offenses.  Iowa is never going to land in the Top 10 rankings for scoring offense or total yardage but they don't need to.  But for them to score around 28 to 30 points per game there are certain benchmarks that this team is capable of achieving.  And 28 points a game coupled with this defense should be enough to scare any opponent.

The stats that I am going to focus on are going to be turnover margin, red zone attempts and TD percentage within that stat, Stanzi's completion percentage, and finally third down percentage.  Turnover margin should be pretty self-explanatory, you hold on to the ball better than your opponent.  It is possibly the only stat that I have ever heard Ferentz mention.  Red zone attempts stress how well a team moves the ball over the course of a season, although some Iowa teams have scored well without a great attempts per game number.  This season's team could be explosive enough to be that kind of offense.  Stanzi's completion percentage for me is half about his decision making and half about the Hawkeye's improving their running game.  If Iowa is a more balanced team than Stanzi should be a much more effective passer.  And finally third down percentage is about keeping drives alive and giving a bunch of talented skill players a chance to make plays.  Iowa was very effective on Saturday and it would be great if they could continue that throughout the season.

I will be begin with turnover margin.  This doesn't seem to have a direct correlation with Iowa's highest scoring offenses although that doesn't seem to make sense.  I am sure if Iowa cuts down their turnovers this season that they will score more points, however one of the Hawk's most successful offensive teams in the Ferentz actually had a negative turnover margin.  However that team also had one of the fewest amount of total turnovers in the era, also.  One problem with this stat is that it doesn't solely rely on the offense.  I would say it is a safe bet to rely on the 2010 defense to force in the neighborhood of 30 takeaways.  If Stanzi and company can just reduce their 2009 total of 28giveaways by 2/3rds I am sure that would lead directly to more Hawkeye points.  If Stanzi were to reduce his pick 6s by 3 that would reduce the opponents total points by 21 (4 pick 6s last season).  Here is a little chart showing the turnover margin of last season's team, the 2008, 2005, and 2003 along with their points per game.
Team    PPG         I Int.     I Fbl.   I Tot.      Op  Int.  Op Fbl.  Op Tot.   I. +/-
2009      23.2           20         8          28              21          9            30            2
2008      30.3           11         13        24              23          9            32            8
2005      30.0            8           9         17              10          6            16            -1
2003      28.7           10         11        21              13         12           25            4

Iowa's best offenses have been very efficient in the red zone scoring no less than 84.2%(2008) of the time they entered the opponents 20.  They also managed to make their way quite often.  2005's team had the lowest attempts per game at 3.67 but that team also managed to score a lot of explosive type of TDs (16 TDs of 21 or more yards offensively) .    The best offenses also converted TDs when they got there- 2008's 56% was the worst. Last season's Iowa team struggled in almost all of these categories.  Here is a chart on red zone scoring involving the same teams.
Team   Rz Att.   Rz TD   Rush TD  Pass TD  FG  FG Miss  Downs  Int.  Fbl.  Half  Game
2009      38           20          11               9            12      2               3         0     0         1      0
2008      57           32          25               7            16      4               3         1     1         0      0
2005      44           27          12              15           15      1               1         0     1         0      0
2003      55           32          17              15           16      1               0         1     1         4      0

The 2003 team scored as many TDs as the 2009 team scored in the red zone in one fewer game.  The 2010 team has too much skill talent to repeat's 2009 red zone numbers.

Stanzi's completion percentage is probably the most debatable benchmark of the four I am laying out.  Iowa's quarterbacks have not had to be high percentage passers to be effective during the Ferentz/ O'Keefe regime.  Last season Ricky completed 56% of his passes but he had a very good average of 14.13 yards per completion.  If he is able to bump his completion percentage into the low 60s, the trade-off of a lowered yard per completion would be well worth it.  This lends itself into the decision making area and his progress in making better and faster reads within the offense.  Forcing the ball down-field less and checking down more often will lead to more running room for Hampton and Robinson, and more manageable third downs the final benchmark.

The last stat up for debate here is third down percentage.  Looking at the trends of college football the last few seasons one thing that is pretty obvious is that effective third down teams score points.  The top scoring teams from last season also happen to litter the top ten ranking of third down conversion percentage. You can see the index(their Iowa stats didn't mesh with the Iowa Official Site, I am going with the Universities numbers for almost all of my info in this post) here.  The outliers were Wisconsin, Penn State, and Washington.  Wisconsin still finished in the top 21 percent of college scoring offenses with a healthy 31.3 points per game.  Penn State averaged 28.7 ppg and Washington (26.7 ppg) fell out of the top half of scoring offenses still outperformed Iowa by 3.4 points per game and ranked ahead of Iowa by 22 ranking spots in that category.  On the surface this stat may seem kind of silly- if the Hawks converted their third downs at a clip of 42% with the same number of attempts as last season it would only mean 9 more conversions on the season. Another way to look at it is Iowa averaged 5 out of 14 attempts per game.  Converting at a clip of 42% would only net them a bump of 6 out of 14 attempts per game.  But that is a potential big play on 27 more downs.  It is time that your defense is off the field.  It is changing field position.  It is wearing out the opposing defense.  Iowa's best offense of the years that I have discussed was the 2005 which operated at a 41.25% clip.  The '08 team had a 40.88% third down rate.  Last season's squad converted on 38.1% and they need to convert at least 40% to sniff the 30 points per game mark.

If Iowa's offense were to meet all of these stats that doesn't guarantee success but coupled with the defense that we all saw on Saturday this would surely lead to a pretty difficult team to defeat.  An efficient offense with the play-makers on the outside and in the backfield that have the potential to score from anywhere on the field would certainly make for long nights for opposing defensive coordinators.

A Thumnail Sketch of the Eastern Illinois Panthers

This won't be a full blown matchups article.  I haven't been able to see as much of this team as I would like and they are playing many new faces.  They are also playing a new offense transistioning to the "pistol" version of the shotgun style of the spread.  This is similar to the offense that Indiana runs.

  EIU comes into this game undermatched and they are already banged up coming out of fall camp. They are missing their most talented offensive player Mon Williams who is a Florida transfer.  Brian Nielson of the Journal Gazette &Times Courier  is reporting that the two returning starters from last season's o-line and a projected starter may miss this game here.  Add to this that 10 Brandon Large will be making his first start at Qb for the Panthers running this system and his backups are untested in this system, Iowa's defense would seem to have every advantage heading into this game.  If  61Willie Henderson (6'2 273 JR) projected at center and 76 Eric Zink (6'6 284 JR), projected at guard, are ruled out then EIU would be starting five new faces along the offensive line when they roll into Kinnick on Saturday to face Clayborn, Klug, Daniels, Ballard, and Daniel.  That is tough sledding for any offensive line but may be overwhleming for a group that will have consist of mostly second and third year players with little game experience.

Tailback 2 Jimmy Potempa does have some experience but he was used more as a receiver last season.  At the other skill spots EIU returns 4 Kenny Whittaker (29 rec 2 TD), 81 Chris Wright (21 rec 4 TD), 18 Charles Graves (24 rec 3 TD), 3 Lorence Ricks (19 rec 3 TD), and 22 Eric Lora (23 rec 2 TD) all at receiver.  The tight ends will all be pretty inexperienced.

On defense the Panthers run a base 4-3.  They return quite a bit of experience on this side of the ball.  They seem to want to focus on stopping the run.  An interview with Coach Spoo led me to believe that Iowa will see quite a few eight-man fronts and that Iowa's outside receiver's will have an opportunity to make a few plays.  Here is a link to that interview.

EIU's defensive line bring's back one talented starter- 98 Perry Burge (6'2 234 JR).  Last season he had 7 sacks and an additional 4.5 TFLs.  He will be joined by three new starters who have some game experience.  Burge is talented but undersized as is the other listed DE 32 Artavious Dowdell (6'2 236 SO)  The top three DTs listed on the the depth chart have decent size.  Iowa's o-line should be able to have some success establishing a push on the edge versus this d-line.

The Panther's return four experienced Linebackers, all three starters and a backup.  Sam 'backer 56 Nick Nasti (6'1 237 SR) lead the unit last season with 83 tackles and was the only one to grab a pick.  Will 8 Cory Leman (6'1 216)  had 63 tackles and Mike 'backer 46 Gordy Kickles (6'0 219 JR) racked up 62 along with 4.5 TFLs.  Backup 49 Sean Campell managed to get 41 tackles and 3.5 TFLs in limited action.

The Panthers possess a couple of good corners in 21 CJ James and 26 Rashad Haynes.  James managed to pick off 5 passes last season while deflecting 4 more, while Haynes only had one interception he did deflect 11 other passes.  The pair combined for 90 stops.  They are joined in the backfield by 6 Carlos Reyna and  19 Nick Martinez who are first year starters but have seen some action.  Look for Martinez to line up in the box or walk up on the strong side of Iowa's formations on the early downs.  Reyna will have a lot on his plate on Saturday.

Kevin Cook is scheduled for double duty Saturday as both the punter and the placekicker.  He handled the punting chores for the Panther's last season averaging 42.0 yards per punt but didn't attempt a kick last season. 

Ultimately this game shouldn't be close.  Iowa has too much depth for this team and Iowa is much, much more talented.  I have already written why it won't be UNI again.  I think it will be more like Ball State 2005.

The Ten Things I Would Like to See Saturday

It is almost here.  I am sure all Hawk fans have a few things they would like to see in Iowa City Saturday whether its on field performance or old friends at a comfortable tailgate spot.  Here are the things I am hoping to see on September Fourth.

1.  No serious injuries and a comfortable margin of victory.
2.  I would like to see very little play-action passing by the first team versus this opponent.  I understand it is a big part of the offense but I think that for Stanzi to progress he needs to grow as a pocket passer.  It would be nice to see a lot of 3, 5 and 7 step drops to see how the line holds up and how Ricky goes through his progressions and if he is able to hit his check down.  If Iowa is going to bring back the Jailbreak Screen they should run it two or three times in this game to get the timing down.
3.  Assuming Robinson is healthy, he should get most of the reps with the first team.  It would be nice to him try to gain a rhythm with the line and see if he can wear down a defense with his running style.  Getting a chance to run several series in a row could help him understand where his running lanes are going to develop with this version of the Iowa line.  A called misdirection running play involving the TB would also be nice.
4.  The O-line needs to be dominant from the second series, if not before.  A slow start is understandable as they could experience butterflies and will facing an opponent for the first time in some of their careers.  But once they take the field for the second series on they need to assert themselves over a physically less talented group.
5.  A focus on on interior running plays regardless of formation.  Iowa needs to generate a push in the middle to make the stretch play effective.  It can only make the play-action game more effective, also.
6.  A defensive line rotation involving Mike Daniels and Lebron Daniel.  Ballard can play the Left-side making room for Daniels and Daniel can play either end position giving the first team defense five guys for four spots in this game and keeping the D-line fresh for this game and for the season.  An added benefit is that it is most likely that Daniels and Daniel will need to step into huge shoes next season and carry the D-line along-side Binns next season.  This is something I would like to see every week.
7. Very little Nickel early to see how Tyler Nielson holds up in coverage.  He has big shoes to fill in replacing probably the best cover linebacker in the Ferentz era in A.J. Edds.  Nielson has the size and the athleticism to replace Edds, he just needs the experience.  I would like to see the 2nd unit try to get three corners on the field as much as possible.  They could use time and you can never have enough depth at that position.
8.  Some time for Nick Nielson or Jordan Bernstine and Jack Swanson along with the first team defense.  Give these guys some time to make adjustments and checks against an opponent.  You can also protect Sash and Greenwood.
9.  Touchbacks or at least excellent coverage from the kickoff units.  No misses from the kicking game.
10.  The 2nd unit with no less than 8:00 on the clock in the 3rd quarter.

Why EIU Won't be UNI All Over Again

I am sure that not many Hawkeye fans have forgotten last season's dramatic win in the closing seconds consisting of two blocked field goals to escape UNI. I am also sure SECspn's Pat Forde is reluctant to let that hammer go. No matter the how convincingly the Hawkeyes win on Saturday I am sure all of the highlight shows will juxtapose Saturday's result with last season's nail-biter. One thing is certain and that this season's opener will be a little less dramatic and here are the reasons why.

UNI is an in-state opponent, and a high level FCS team.  They have been consistently in the play-off hunt and the last three seasons they have been considered a threat to win the FCS championship, although last season the Iowa game may have been the highlight of their season. Much of their roster consists of Iowa kids who may feel overlooked and play with extra motivation feeling they deserved a chance to play at Iowa. They also get a good amount of talented transfers from FBS schools who wash out for one reason or another who may wish to play right away.  They have had transfers from Iowa, ISU, and even USC. They are well coached and their staff is very familiar with the Iowa program making it sort of a mini version of the Iowa- ISU game.

Last season's UNI team was very veteran on Offense.  Pat Grace fit the perfect profile of a QB to give an Iowa defense difficulty- smart, patient, mobile, and accurate.  He took what the defense gave him and didn't try to force the ball down-field.  He was able to make plays with his feet.  He was willing to throw the ball away and play the field position game.  His TD pass to the TE Mahaffey was a thing of beauty.  UNI also returned basically four starting O-lineman last season.  They had a very experienced receiving corps and were efficient enough to move the ball when they needed to at the end of the game.

Iowa's offensive line was also a mash unit heading into that game.  Bulaga played, although he was injured throughout much of camp, Vandervelde did not play, Calloway also battled injuries during camp and was suspended.  Iowa's starting Guards Gettis and Doering were pretty inconsistent in this game.  A long TD strike that might have changed the momentum of the game and get the offense rolling was called back due to a holding call on Gettis.  The line couldn't generate a consistent  push against a stout UNI D-line featuring two returning starters and facing eight man fronts.  And when they did create a seam the tailbacks didn't always find it.

This season's unit has been pretty settled since the spring.  Although the Center position has been up for grabs between James Ferentz and Josh Koeppel, it seems like they have been splitting reps and the line has been relatively healthy for most of camp( I am aware of a report that Adam Gettis is possibly battling a high ankle sprain.  Since I am writing this before Tuesday's press conference and I can't get verified info that he is out I will assume he will play some.)  Even if Gettis is hurt he has had one career start and will be replaced by a player with one fewer career start, although many less snaps.  The most important thing for this unit will be to play cohesively. 

Iowa's D-line was a brand new unit.  Clayborn and Ballard were returning starters but Ballard was playing his first game at Tackle, and Klug and Binns were making their first career starts.  Only Clayborn was lining up in his accustomed spot.  The defense as a whole suffered from poor tackling in the first half.  Although we didn't know what we were missing in Prater at the time, Castillo also started opposite of Spievey and struggled towards the end of the game in coverage. That was a tough spot for a red-shirt freshman to be put in and I am sure he would do much better this season.

Although Iowa will be replacing a significant amount of starts in Angerer, Edds, and Spievey,  the replacements are all battle- tested and have some time on the field already and have basically been groomed for their time.  If Tarpinian is held out of this game, Davis is very capable of holding down the Mike.  Hunter is ready to step into a leadership position and Tyler Neilsen has been personally groomed at Leo by Edd's for his first three season's on campus.  Micah Hyde, Willie Lowe, Jordan Bernstine and Greg Castillo have all played plenty of snaps and are capable of playing in this game while Prater gets healthy.  It doesn't hurt to have a four year starter in Greenwood and three year starter and potential consensus All- American in Tyler Sash erasing mistakes.

Also the receiving corps for Iowa was a bit of an unknown heading into that game.  DJK was reportedly in the doghouse and battling early season injuries, Sandeman was battling injuries, nobody knew if McNutt was for real, and Stanzi seemed to only trust Moeaki.  Tony had 10 catches and I think 14 targets out of 34 pass attempts.  Half of the passes completed went to Moeaki.

Iowa should come into this game at full strength with a very deep and veteran depth chart.  DJK, McNutt, Sandeman, Keenan Davis, Paul Chaney, and Don Nordmann have all shown themselves to be capable. It will be interesting to see if Jordan Cotton or true frosh Kevonte Martin- Manley make a dent in the regular rotation. Allen Reisner is very steady at Tight End and Brad Herman looks to hold off talented freshman C.J. Fiedorowicz.

EIU is a pretty good FCS school but not quite to the level of UNI and they do not have nearly the level of returning experience that last season's UNI team possessed.  They reportedly will be without there best player in former Gator Mon Williams, a Tailback and will be starting a sophmore Juco transfer Brandon Large at QB.  They have two returning starters on the offensive line but one is transitioning to center.  They don't have a lot of upperclassmen on their roster.  Their defense possesses several starters returning, including a couple of good corners and their entire linebacking corps, however their front seven is pretty undersized and Iowa should be able to run the ball pretty easily on this team.

Position Battles: Tailback

The Tailback at Iowa is usually the only ball carrier. There are obviously exceptions such as Brad Banks in 2002 and the great injury plague of 2004, but generally the Tailback is going to “carry the mail.” The characteristics the coaching staff seems to favor in a ball carrier are patience and setting up blocks, choosing the correct running lane, and ball security. Of course there is much more than running the ball to gain playing time in Iowa’s offense. Pass protection is a key ability- understanding it and performing it well is a quick way to early playing time. Blitz pick-up will be especially important with a relatively inexperienced offensive line this season. Finally the screen game and being an outlet in the passing game are nice abilities to have but not absolutely essential (see Greene, Shonn). In 2008 Iowa’s TBs were rarely used in the passing game, but last season Robinson and Wegher combined for 23 catches and often motioned into the slot. I would look for that number to increase.


The candidates: I am going to put these guys in the order I expect them to end up with regarding carries. The exception will be Paki O’Meara, who will be listed last. He may get more carries then the freshman but I am listing him last because I think the staff would prefer to Red-shirt the freshman if it is possible, in order to stagger the classes a little bit.

Jewel Hampton R. So. 5’9 210 * 2008 91att. 463yds 7td 5.1ypa. 23KR 23.3avg.

Hampton had set the standard for true freshman backs backing up Shonn Greene in ’08 before the Duo of Robinson and Wegher last season. A slasher who improved steadily over the course of the ’08 season really showed some patience, suprising physicality, and a nice 2nd gear in the open field. A knee injury ended his season in preseason camp last year. He looked very good in 7 on 7 drills in the spring event. He reportedly participated in most of the spring practices and should be 100% healthy for the fall camp. Could be the most well rounded back on the roster. I expect him to be the lead back on the team this season.

Adam Robinson R. So 5’9 205 2009 181att 834yds 5td 4.6ypa 10rec 80yds 0td 2KR 19avg

Robinson was the more steady of the two freshman pressed into action last season. Seemed to be more willing to run for the tough inside yards. Made better decisions when choosing his running lanes, runs very low to the ground, able to break arm tackles. Didn’t run away from anyone and didn’t threaten the edge often which was sort of a surprise to me because he was known as a speed guy. (I wonder if both he and Wegher were so worried about holding onto the ball if they sacrificed speed for ball security). Pretty steady catching the ball, very good pass blocker and very willing to hit someone. Very comfortable catching the ball away from his frame.

Brandon Wegher So 5’11 206 162att 641yds 8td 13rec 112yds 0td 9KR 23.8avg

The more flashy of the duo really settled in at the end of the season. He didn’t produce as many big plays as  expected but was much more effective in the red zone than I expected. Fearless and not afraid of contact, very willing pass blocker, very good receiver, excellent route runner, great change of direction, can set guys up with or without the ball. Speedy and agile. You could sometimes see him thinking with the ball in his hands. Early in the season tried to press everything outside, but his vision and patience improved as the season progressed. Showed a lot of toughness playing through severe rib injury. Should have the inside track as primary Kick Returner and could be in the mix as a Punt Returner.

Brad Rogers R.Fr 5’10 215 No Statistics

Rogers was the feature back during the spring scrimmage with the top three nursing injuries and being held out of the competition for preventative measures. I would guess that he may be larger than his listed weight and he carries it well. He runs with a very nice body lean, and showed some nifty moves at or near the line of scrimmage. He showed a nice burst, but may lack a top gear right now. He is still learning on the job and could use a little patience running behind this scheme but overall shows a lot of potential and is a very nice change of pace compared to the rest of his running mates listed above. I thought he did an adequate job in pass protection and didn’t note him targeted with a pass in the scrimmage. I am really hoping he gets some time in this season so we get a better look at him.

Marcus Coker T.Fr 6’0 230 No Statistics

Coker fits the Shonn Greene mold, a power back looking to batter through tackles, who also has a little scoot to his game. He averaged over 10 yards per carry his Junior and Senior campaigns and scored 23 TDs his senior year alone. He was also a captain of his team his last two years. I think it would be the preference of the coaching staff to Red- shirt him in order to put a two year gap between him and the top three tailbacks but if injuries strike and he is good enough it wouldn’t shock me to see him on the field at some point this season.

Paki O’Meara R.Sr 5’11 211 16att 35yds 0td 1rec 14yds

Paki may be a factor this season because of his experience, attitude and ability to catch passes and block. But so far he hasn’t looked very natural or explosive running the ball. He may have the vision to see the holes developing but he hasn’t shown the burst to get to the hole before it closes up. He is a very good special teams player and will be a factor on this teams’ success. I just don’t see it as a primary option at Tailback.


De’Andre Johnson T.Fr 5’8 210 No Statistics

Johnson was a highly recruited player before a knee injury ruined his Senior season. Iowa stuck with him and gained his services. I don’t expect to see him this season as he could use the Red-shirt year to stagger, along with another year to strengthen his knee.

*Jason White R. So No Statistics

I expect White to play defensive back. He played running back during the spring scrimmage as much for lack of bodies at the position as for any grand plan to keep him there. He should have a bright future at Safety and should be in the mix in the battle to replace Brett Greenwood after 2011. I am making this assumption because he played both DB and TB during the spring, he is wearing #14 (also John Wienke’s number) and Iowa is legitimately deep at this position right now. He is a good enough football player that he can help us at Saftey. He will be a special teams contributor this season.

Early Breakout Players

I am going to take a stab at breakout players at almost every position. I am going to exclude QB,FB, PK, Punter and the returners. Some of these guys are pretty obvious candidates and some of them are not. The beauty of Iowa football is that someone always rises from nowhere to take a prominent role.


Tailback- Brandon Wegher: I am not necessarily expecting Brandon to “carry the mail”, so to speak, but I am expecting him to be the big play threat at this position. I think he can make the “game changing” plays for Iowa this season as a runner, receiver, and returner. I also expect him to challenge to maintain his role as the TD leader at the running back position. He should make the traditional leap from year one to year two in which the game slows down and a player is more physically mature.

Wide Receiver- Keenan Davis: Could emerge as the natural replacement for Trey Stross. Has a ton of natural ability, great size and a full year under his belt to adjust for the speed of the game. He is another player who may get a shot to impact on the return side of the game. He must have the coaches’ confidence as he was learning multiple spots in the offense during the spring.

Tight End- Brad Herman: based on his performance last season and his effort in the spring drills and scrimmage I am expecting Herman to hold off Super Frosh CJ Fiedorowicz and maintain most of the reps as the number two TE, which is basically a starter in Iowa’s offense. Herman is a very fluid athlete who looks very natural catching the ball, and seems to be a match-up nightmare for linebackers. He is not known for his blocking and was replaced often last season in favor of Andy Keumpal. However he looked fairly physical in the spring drills and hasn’t had the benefit of a red-shirt year. Entering his third year on campus I think he will have a very solid season.

Offensive Line- Adam Gettis: Gettis was going to be my pick last season but I never got the article written. Gettis started the UNI game and was basically the seventh o-lineman last season following the UNI game. He has consistently been singled out by the coaching staff for praise and is entering his fourth year on campus. When he was in the game he acquitted himself fairly well. He is very athletic and was a little raw with some of his technique last season going against a veteran UNI d-line in his solitary start. But with another year under his belt I am betting he will transition into a starting role and excel.

Defensive Line- Mike Daniels: Kind of tough to break through when you rarely see the field but Daniels was a difference maker last season when he did get reps (see Wisconsin), whether it was on goal-line formations or giving Klug or Ballard a breather. The coaching staff has referred to him as a “fifth starter” and so hopefully that will lead to more reps for him this season which would benefit all involved. Daniels has all of the tools to be a very good player in Iowa’s system and can step in at either spot.

Linebacker- Jeff Tarpinian: the leader in the clubhouse to replace Pat Angerer after the Spring, I expect him to hold on to the job and excel. Tarp is a very good cover linebacker and surprised me with his run recognition and speed to the ball carrier from the Mike spot during the spring drills. He has excellent size and did a nice job of sorting through traffic. He also has the speed to make a false step and recover. It will be interesting to see if he can remain healthy all camp and hold on to the job.

Defensive Back- Jordan Bernstine: Micah Hyde is the leader on the depth chart right now. And in my spring report I wrote that I also thought that Willie Lowe was ahead of him. I still think that Bernstine has the most raw talent of any corner and possibly any defensive back on the roster. If he can stay healthy I think it will be hard to keep him off the one line by the time EIU comes to Kinnick. His sophomore year he was amongst the most physical special teamers and blanketed receivers as a slot defender on nickel and dime packages. His size/speed combo is rare at Iowa and teaming him with Prater would give Iowa the most physical set of corners in the Big Ten. That isn’t to diminish Hyde or Lowe, I don’t think Iowa loses in any of these scenarios. I just think that Bernstine is the most physically gifted option on the team and he will end up as the starter by the beginning of the season.

A Way Too Early Look At Iowa's Pro Prospects for the 2011 Draft

Iowa will have seventeen Seniors who have a chance to make NFL rosters after the upcoming 2010 season. I feel that there are three categories of players- locks to be drafted, players who may get a long hard look and be late rounders and at worst free agent pick-ups, and long shots. Iowa also has four Juniors and a Redshirt Sophomore who could consider throwing their name into the ring. For the lock category I have: Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Jeremiha Hunter, Ricky Stanzi, Ryan Donahue, and Allen Reisner. The maybe category includes: Jeff Tarpinian, Karl Klug, Brett Greenwood, Brett Morse, and Julian Vandervelde. The long shots would include: Colin Sandeman, Don Nordmann, Troy Johnson, Josh Koeppel and Kyle Haganman. The underclassmen would consist of Juniors Tyler Sash, Broderick Binns, Marvin McNutt, Shaun Prater and Sophomore Riley Reiff. I think it is unlikely that any of the underclassmen leave early this season as I don’t think any would be high enough of a pick to make it financially imperative to leave and I think that a NFL rookie cap is coming if a labor agreement is reached. I think the days of 45 to 60 early entrants to the NFL are over.


Adrian Clayborn RDE 6’4 285 SR: Already on most every preseason publications’ All-American list and a consensus first round draft selection for next season. Can play DE in either a 3-4 or a 4-3. Can play all 3 downs in the NFL, is equally effective vs. the run or the pass. Has a medical issue that could scare some teams. Games scouts will be watching 9/11 vs. ISU, 10/ vs. Wisconsin, 11/13 vs. Northwestern, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: Pick 8-15 to a 3-4 team.

Christian Ballard DT 6’5 297 SR: Underrated in most preseason magazines, only Phil Steele is giving him attention. Was just learning DT position last season. Really came on strong late in the year. A natural “3” in a 4-3 and has the size and length to play “5” in a 3-4. Great first step and very good motor, great athleticism and very good speed to pursue plays away from him. Games Scouts will be watching 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/16 vs. Michigan, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: With a really good season I think he could be a late First rounder, but is more likely a mid to late second round selection.

Derrell Johnson-Koulianos WR 6’1 200 SR: Again another underrated Hawkeye, 3rd team Athlon, and 2nd team Phil Steele, is also Wes Bunting’s 5th rated Senior WR. A good athlete and a polished route runner. Slippery with the ball on his hands. Will leave Iowa as career leader in receptions and yardage. Plays his best in biggest games. Plays hurt and has leadership potential, seems to be well liked by teammates. Could have potential as a returner. Biggest flaw may be effort in blocking consistency. I think this has improved. Games scouts will be watching 9/18 Arizona, 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/30 vs. Michigan State, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: With a full season of health I think DJK has the potential to put up numbers like Iowa fans are not accustomed to- 70+ catches, 1000 yards and 10+ TDs, With a running mate like McNutt opposing secondary’s will not be able to roll coverage to him and he as the ability to beat any corner he will face this season. I project him to be a late 2nd to middle 3rd round selection.

Jeremiha Hunter WLB 6’2 235 SR: 2nd team Athlon and 2nd team Phil Steele. A box linebacker who is at his best playing downhill against the run. Knows his assignments and plays them well. Improved his pass coverage last season which is his perceived knock. Very physical and can be a punishing tackler. May be a natural ILB in a 3-4 scheme. If he takes another leap like last season in his pass cover skills could really improve his draft stock. Games scouts will be watching 9/11 vs. ISU, 10/16 vs. Michigan, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I think Hunter could project well in either scheme being played in the NFL and with the comments by the coaching staff following spring drills I expect a big season for him. I project him to go in the middle 3rd to middle 4th round.

Ricky Stanzi QB 6’4 230 SR: Phil Steele 2nd team and #11 overall QB. Has the physical tools and the size NFL teams covet. Great pocket awareness and very athletic for his size. I am sure he is taller than his listed size. I am not one that questions his arm strength, when his mechanics are right he can sling it with anyone. Exhibits great touch on intermediate and deep throws, could anticipate throws sooner and look off coverage better. Decision making and accuracy are sometimes issues. Great intangibles. Games scouts will be watching 9/18 vs. Arizona, 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I know I am biased, but I project him in the 2nd to 3rd round. Most of this hinges on Iowa’s success this season, but Stanzi does a lot of things right. If he can improve on a lot of his decision making and detail type of issues I can easily see him rising to the top of the second tier of QBs in the 2011 draft class.

Ryan Donahue P 6’3 190 SR: Has a huge leg but doesn’t often get a chance to show it because of the conservative nature of Iowa’s coaching staff. He might lead the nation in number of punts attempted inside the opponents 40. Rarely outkicks his coverage. Puts great hang-time on his punts. Is also a very athletic player at the position. Very good at deadening the ball inside the 20.

Spud’s spin: Donahue may be the only punter taken in this draft. The punter from UCLA has similar stats and I haven’t seen him play so I will hold off on that assessment for now. Punters generally aren’t taken high so I will project him to go middle 5th to late 6th. I think his value to a team could be higher than that.

Allen Reisner TE 6’3 248 SR: Reisner finally escapes the shadow of Tony Moeaki. Very steady performer in both phases of the game, excellent route runner, understands where holes are in zone coverages and sits in them. Great hands, good after the catch, very athletic- comparable to Brandon Myers. Is an above average blocker, doesn’t get the credit he deserves in this phase of the game. Probably will be viewed strictly as an “H” in the next level but I believe he could play on the line of scrimmage. Games scouts will be watching 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/30 vs. Michigan State, 11/13 vs. Northwestern, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: If you start at tight end at Iowa under Kirk Ferentz you get drafted. Those are the facts-Austin Wheatley, Dallas Clark, Erik Jensen, Tony Jackson, Scott Chandler, Brandon Myers, and Tony Moeaki are the seven starters since 2000 and all have heard their name called on draft day. Reisner has a lot of game experience filling in for the oft- injured Moeaki and has played both the “Y” and the “H” spots very well his last two seasons. I see Reisner as my last “lock” going somewhere in the 6th round and possibly higher.

Karl Klug DT 6’3 270 SR: Phil Steele 2nd team, Lindy’s 2nd team, Athlon 1st team. This is where it gets hard for me. To me his is Mitch King only 3 inches taller. Ferocious motor, incredible off the snap, great with his hands, very good at pursing plays away from him. May get downgraded in some scouts’ eyes for playing between Clayborn and Ballard. The questions I have for NFL people are do you project him at DT or DE in a 4-3 or DE in a 3-4? Does Klug keep his weight up during the season, if he enters the season at 270 does he end it at 258?  Games scouts will be watcing ISU 9/11, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/13 vs. Northwestern, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I am going to project Klug going in the 5th to 7th round, but It is possible he could go undrafted. I do see him being at least a priority free agent.

Jeff Tarpinian MLB 6’3 238 SR: Phil Steel 3rd team. Tarpinian enters his fifth year with his first chance to start. He is very fast, very good in zone coverage and very good in one on one coverage. He has spent most of his time playing outside linebacker in Iowa’s 3-4 packages or as a SLB in the Nickel. He subbed for Hunter as the WLB vs. OSU and struggled a bit in run support. He looked very good in the spring game sifting through traffic and filling his hole. He was taking good angles to the ball. This may be his biggest question mark heading into the season, how will he stand up to power running games in the Big Ten? Does he have the strength and technique to shed lineman and make a play on the ballcarrier against power football? Can he sift through traffic and get to the ball carrier close to the line of scrimmage? Games scouts will be watching 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 10/30 vs. Michigan State, 11/20 vs. Ohio State.

Spud’s Spin: I am a big believer in Tarp. He has really flashed to me at times in his Iowa career. A lot of people forget he entered the OSU game playing on a bad wheel. I think he will have a senior year to remember if he can remain healthy. He is very strong in coverage and should project well to the next level as a special teamer and a cover linebacker at least. I will project him as a 6th round to 7th selection with it more likely he will be a priority free agent.

Brett Greenwood FS 6’0 200 SR: Athlon 1st team, Lindy’s 2nd team, Phil Steele 2nd team. I can’t think of a player who has improved more over the course of his career at Iowa more than Greenwood. Physically he has improved his speed and physicality. He has good instincts and is a very intelligent player. He isn’t always the prettiest tackler but almost always gets the job done. Could make a living as a special teamer and back-up for a Cover 2 team. Games scouts will be watching 9/18 vs. Arizona, 9/16 vs. Michigan, 9/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I project Greenwood to get drafted in the 6th to 7th round by a team like Indianapolis, or Chicago that needs safety depth and special teams help and runs the Cover 2. I think if a team that fits that profile has multiple late round picks it helps his chances. If he goes undrafted I am sure he will be a priority free agent. With a special season I would be willing to move him into my lock list.

Julian Vandervelde G 6’3 300 SR: No preseason lists that I could find. Vandervelde has fought nagging injuries throughout his career. Pretty good with his hands, good bender, not always explosive off the snap, can struggle identifying blitzers in pass protection, very good on the move. Sometimes plays too high initially and doesn’t always recover well if beaten initially. Has the more games started than rest of Iowa’s offensive line combined. If he remains healthy I think he will play with more consistency and team with Reiff to form a solid wall on the left side. It will help him to stay at one position (strictly Left Guard). May be the smartest player on the team and is surely the best singer. Games scouts will be watching 10/2 Penn State, 10/16 Michigan, 10/30 Michigan State, 11/20 Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I am going to project Vandervelde to go undrafted but I do think he should be a priority free agent and should have a future with NFL teams possibly as a developmental center for teams running zone schemes. I think he could have a very good season and rise onto some teams draft boards, the key for him will be health and pass protection.

Colin Sandeman WR 6’1 200 SR: No preseason lists. Sandeman is the first of the long-shots. In Iowa’s scheme it is tough for a player like him to put up the kind of stats to have a breakthrough season to draw attention. Sandeman is a decent returner who is pretty shifty but sometimes struggles with his decision making on when to catch the punt. He is a reliable receiver who rarely drops a pass, but has put the ball on the ground in big spots. He is coming off his best game as a pass catcher in the Orange Bowl. He is unquestionably the Hawk’s best blocker at the position and always in the game when Iowa is looking to salt the game away by pounding the ball. He possesses above average hands, good lateral quickness, great football IQ, and extreme toughness. He has struggled to stay on the field with multiple injuries. I don’t think he will get a combine invite. Iowa has a lot of receptions and yards to replace and he will be in the mix to replace them.

Spud’s Spin: I think Sandeman will have to go the try-out route. I think his best bet is to go to WR and special team starved teams and make an impression. He could also play in lesser leagues like the CFL, Arena or the UFL.

Don Nordmann 6’6 211 WR SR: Very good size, got some decent playing time last season, was the start of the spring scrimmage, is a very good blocker. Has above average hands. I am not sure if he has the agility to separate from defensive backs or if he can only use his frame to win. Haven’t seen enough of him to see what kind of a route runner he is.

Spud’s Spin: If he gets enough PT this season he has the size to at least get a try-out from a team lacking a size receiver. He could be a red-zone target specialist and special teamer.

Troy Johnson 6’2 235 LB SR: Athletic and smart enough to play all three spots for Iowa. Known best for coming in as the third teamer vs. Minnesota and winning DBTOW. Good speed, good recognition, good depth on zone drops. Not extremely physical, more of a drag-down tackler, needs to win a job to get more film for teams to evaluate him. Very good special teams player.

Spud’s Spin: If Johnson can beat out either Tarp or Bruce Davis for the Mike spot or Tyler Neilsen for the Leo he could sneak on to a team’s draft board but I think it is unlikely for this to happen. He could shine enough at Iowa’s pro day and on film for him to get try-outs with NFL teams’ and possibly stick after the Draft.

Josh Koeppel 6’2 273 C SR: Koeppel needs to beat out James Ferentz for the center job and then excel ala Rob Bruggeman, who went undrafted to have a chance. Koeppel has game experience but has never been the “man” . He would be undersized for an NFL center and he would have to have a dominating season to attract notice in his one year as a starter.

Spud’s Spin: I think it is unlikely that Koeppel will be on many teams boards entering the season. He has to beat out Ferentz first to even make this a possibility and then remain healthy which has been a big obstacle for him throughout his Iowa career. It is possible for him to do, just unlikely.

Kyle Haganman 6’5 285 T/G SR: Haganman has yet to start a game and has only played in 11 games in his 3 years. Most of that is mop up duty. He was mentioned as a riser in the ’09 spring practice but has yet to really make a serious run a playing time. This is his last chance to win a job and I expect him to be in the mix for the Right Tackle and Right Guard in the Fall camp. If he doesn’t see significant PT he won’t get an opportunity. I honestly don’t know enough about him to say anything about him.

Spud’s Spin: I don’t expect him to crack the starting line up so I don’t foresee a future in professional football for Kyle.

The Underclassmen: A note I don’t think any of these guys are going anywhere. This is just in case.

Tyler Sash SS 6’1 210 JR: Extremely assignment sound, very instinctive, takes very good angles to the ball, very solid in run support, not a punishing tackler, more of a drag down or cut tackler, able to break down in space- very agile. Most evaluators don’t think Sash is fast but I think this is typical undervaluing an Iowa player’s athleticism because he is so well coached.

Spud’s Spin: If he were to leave I project him to go no later than the 2nd round. I think the 2nd is where he lands regardless of whether he is drafted in 2011 or 2012.

Marvin McNutt WR 6’4 215 JR: Uses his size extremely well like the basketball player that he was, very agile for his size, great hands, plays receiver like the quarterback that he was adeptly reading coverage and settling in open spots in zones, able to high point the ball on fade routes, very good with the ball in his hands, still learning the position- his best days are ahead of him. Won’t run an elite time on a 40 and sometimes struggled with press coverage.

Spud’s Spin: This is a loaded receiver draft class and again I would be shocked if McNutt left, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he went much higher than Hawk fans expect. Being a former QB McNutt should excel in the interview process, he is very good after the catch and will probably be the primary Red Zone weapon on a team that is primed to score a lot of points. I would project him no worse than the 3rd round and possibly higher. I think he should come back if that is his projection.

Broderick Binns 6’2 261 DE JR: 7’ Wingspan- 9 Passes defended last season 12th in the Big Ten last season and tied for 3rd in just passes broken up. Binns will be entering his second year as a starter and will probably make the leap that Clayborn made last season. He is probably Iowa’s best pure pass rusher. He could be stronger at the point of attack vs. the run, he can be washed out by tackles and bigger tight ends, rarely takes a bad angle to the QB, great motor and is very fast for the position.  Should be stronger this season.   May be locked into a 4-3 with his height but his arm length should negate that stereotype.

Spud’s Spin: If there is a position that is deeper than receiver, than it is end in the 2011 draft. Binns could put up monster numbers this season and not even make All Big Ten. I would project him no lower than 2nd round however if he were to leave. If he stays he should be a solid projected 1st round selection in ’12.

Shaun Prater 5’11 180 CB JR: Prater is entering his second year as a starter and his third year as a significant contributor to the defense. He was a surprise as a freshman to win a spot on the nickel and dime packages and played very well. Last season he played extremely well opposite of Amari Spievey. He is a very good pass defender, he possesses very good closing speed, reads routes well, has very good balance, is comfortable in press coverage, is a very good leaper, he isn’t the most physical corner- he could improve his tackling but he is a true junior. He has been raved about this spring by coaches and teammates.

Spud’s Spin: I think it is unlikely that Shaun would leave early. I think he could use the fourth year to work on technique and strength. He is still pretty skinny and seeing Spievey go in the third round might influence him to finish his eligibility.

Riley Reiff 6’6 300 LT SO: Reiff has already taken his red- shirt so he is technically draft eligible after this season. I wouldn’t normally even include him but he was so outstanding last season he deserves a mention. Reiff actually outperformed Bulaga on the field at Left Tackle last season. Of course Bulaga was never really in prime football shape but still that is saying something for a kid thrown into the fire as a red shirt freshman. “The Next One” will have his hands full versus elite ends Cameron Heyward, Ricky Elmore, and Jack Crawford. If he holds up and dominates in the run game the lack of top end talent at this position could have NFL people in his ear.

Spud’s Spin: I think the odd’s of a R. Sophomore leaving Iowa under Ferentz’s tenure are 10,000 to 1. However if Vegas gave me those odds I might throw $50 down on this kid’s talent. If he were to leave I would project him into the 1st round if he performed as well as last season.

Where does Kyle Calloway fit in on the Bills

Calloway could come in and compete right away for a starting spot.  Buffalo has only 3 guards listed on its active roster and he is the first lineman drafted so far in 2010.  Buffalo really struggled with pass protection last season and Calloway is big and strong enough to come in and anchor against interior d-lineman.  He could possibly kick out to right tackle for this team but I think it is unlikely.  He may be the most physical run blocker already on this team.  It wouldn't shock me to see a lineup of Lt Chambers, LG Levitre, C Wood, RG Calloway, RT Meredith.  I would imagine he will be the suprise of their pre-season camp.  Here is a list of there lineman (excluding centers) currently on their roster:
77 Bell, Demetrius T ACT 6'5" 307 5/3/1984 3 Northwestern State-Louisiana


Chambers, Kirk T ACT 6'7" 315 3/19/1979 6 Stanford

Green, Cornell T ACT 6'6" 315 8/25/1976 12 Central Florida

74 Hennessey, Nick T ACT 6'5" 291 7/2/1986 1 Colgate

69 Meredith, Jamon T ACT 6'5" 304 5/11/1986 2 South Carolina

75 Ramsey, Andre T ACT 6'5" 322 7/24/1987 1 Ball State

Watkins, Jason T ACT 6'6" 325 6/10/1985 1 Florida

67 Levitre, Andy G ACT 6'2" 305 5/15/1986 2 Oregon State


70 Wood, Eric G ACT 6'4" 315 3/18/1986 2 Louisville

61 Gaddis, Christian OG ACT 6'1" 300 10/5/1984 3 Villanova

Where does Edds fit on the Dolphins

AJ Edds could play any of the 4 LB positions
 Miami but I don't expect him to come in and start right away.  I think he will play inside initially for this team and be a special teamer to start.  He will need some time to learn to rush the passer.  He could be win a spot as a Nickel and Dime LB as he is so good in Coverage but I expect Dansby to be on the field for some of those packages.  Miami has lost 3 of last seasons starters at this position.  Here are the linebackers currently on their roster:
Dansby, Karlos LB ACT 6'4" 250 11/3/1981 7 Auburn


59 Folsom, J.D. LB ACT 6'3" 230 8/19/1984 1 Weber State

93 Moses, Quentin LB ACT 6'5" 260 11/18/1983 4 Georgia

91 Wake, Cameron LB ACT 6'3" 250 1/30/1982 2 Penn State

50 Walden, Erik LB ACT 6'2" 250 8/21/1985 3 Middle Tennessee State

52 Crowder, Channing ILB ACT 6'2" 250 12/2/1983 6 Florida


53 Torbor, Reggie ILB ACT 6'2" 250 1/25/1981 7 Auburn

56 Anderson, Charlie OLB ACT 6'4" 250 12/8/1981 7 Mississippi
 
Rd 2, Pick 8 (40) Misi, Koa DE

Where Does Bulaga fit in with the Packers

Bulaga will start somewhere on this line.  I just am not sure if it will be at one of the guard slots or at Right Tackle initially.  I have read varying reports of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher's ability to continue to play.  Idealy for both Bryan and the Pack he would be able to begin at one of the guard positions and learn from one of the vets.  Green Bay has drafted a tackle 2 out of the last three drafts and could leave Bulaga at guard permanently.  I am not seeing Daryn Colledge on their Roster but I am pretty sure he should be on there.  Here is the rest of the lineman (not including centers) on the official roster:
78 Barbre, Allen T ACT 6'4" 305 6/22/1984 4 Missouri Southern State


76 Clifton, Chad T ACT 6'5" 320 6/26/1976 11 Tennessee

68 Giacomini, Breno T ACT 6'7" 311 9/27/1985 3 Louisville

70 Lang, T.J. T ACT 6'4" 316 9/20/1987 2 Eastern Michigan

65 Tauscher, Mark T ACT 6'3" 316 6/17/1977 11 Wisconsin

Daniels, Stanley G ACT 6'4" 320 11/30/1984 1 Washington


62 Dietrich-Smith, Evan G ACT 6'2" 305 7/19/1986 2 Idaho State

71 Sitton, Josh G ACT 6'3" 322 6/6/1986 3 Central Florida

Where does Pat Angerer fit with the Colts

Angerer most likely will be a backup and special teamer for the Colts this season.  He could compete for the Will job with Clint Session initally while being groomed to eventually succeed Gary Brackett at the Mike position.  He could have been drafted to play the Will also.  If he doesn't win the job he would be a star on special teams.  I am suprised he went this high but very happy and would like to point out there is a reason the same teams always seem to be drafting at the bottom of the draft.  Indy almost never misses.  This is another perfect scheme fit.  He could play 2 positions for this team and replace Brackett on third downs.
Here is a list of the linebackers on the Colt's roster:
52 Glenn, Cody LB ACT 6'0" 240 10/6/1986 2 Nebraska


Renkart, Brandon LB ACT 6'2" 245 12/29/1984 1 Rutgers

58 Brackett, Gary MLB ACT 5'11" 235 5/23/1980 8 Rutgers

59 Humber, Ramon OLB ACT 5'11" 232 8/10/1987 2 North Dakota State

55 Session, Clint OLB ACT 6'0" 235 9/22/1984 4 Pittsburgh

50 Wheeler, Philip OLB ACT 6'2" 240 12/12/1984 3 Georgia Tech

Where does Tony Moeaki fit with the Chiefs

Tony Moeaki could step in and start immediately for the Chiefs.  He may already be the best pass catcher on the roster.  He could be the best athlete at the position currently on their roster right now.  Leonard Pope from Georgia has been underwhelming so far in his career but has great size.  At worst he would seem to be the ideal H back for this team.  Here are the tight ends currently listed on Kansas City's roster
:87 Cottam, Brad TE ACT 6'7" 269 11/28/1984 3 Tennessee


85 O'Connell, Jake TE ACT 6'3" 250 11/6/1985 2 Miami (Ohio)

45 Pope, Leonard TE ACT 6'8" 264 9/10/1983 5 Georgia

How Spievey Fits with the Lions

Amari could step in as a starter immediately. He will compete for playing time with off-season aquisitions Chris Houston and Jonathon Wade and incumbent DeAngelo Smith for a starting spot or at least a nickel role.  He will also most likely see time on most coverage units.  This is a very good situation for him to step into as Detroit runs a very similar scheme to Iowa and he won't be asked to do things that are unfamiliar to him.  He should be playing to his strengths plus Detroit has really improved its pass rush with the addition of Kyle Vandenbosch and Ndamukong Suh.

Where the Hawks Will Land

I am going to try to do a little pre-draft forecasting here and predict where I think this year’s eligible Hawkeye draftees will end up and what teams are likely looking hard at them. I think that a minimum of 6 Hawks will be drafted. Bryan Bulaga, Amari Spievey, A.J. Edds, Tony Moeaki, Kyle Calloway, and Pat Angerer are pretty sure to be drafted. I think it is possible for a team to draft Dace Richardson but that it is more likely for him to go the free agent route. Lastly I think that Rafael Eubanks will land in a camp after the draft. I think it is possible for Andy Keumpal, Dan Doering and Trey Stross to get try-outs and land Free- agent contracts.

With the adjustment to the schedule of the draft, turning it into two night and third day event, I believe that the value of certain picks will have changed and that there could be a lot of trading of picks. I think that the league would prefer less trading during the first night to shorten the night, but they did shorten the time each pick would take by 5 minutes. I think that the value of the late picks may be higher than ever as teams realize that there will be a huge break to re-evaluate their boards and if they think they have a steal they may be more willing to trade up to grab a player late in the first round, I think this also applies to the end of the third round and the beginning of the second. However with the New Day Two teams will have time make the trades off camera.

Teams who could be the center of trading picks- New England, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. Teams looking to trade down or get more picks- Miami (down), Jacksonville (down), Carolina, Chicago, and Washington. Washington and Buffalo may be looking to unload players who no longer fit their defensive scheme along with a stray back-up QB.

Bulaga- First Round; fits any scheme, can plug and play either tackle, Worst Case Pittsburgh @ 18, Teams: Kansas City 5, Seattle 6 and 14, Buffalo 9, San Francisco 13 and 17

Spud’s Spin: Buffalo @ 9

Spievey- First – Second; The least amount of corners taken in the first three rounds of the last 5 drafts is 10. Usually that number is chosen by the end of the second. Spievey is the most physical corner in this class, I haven’t watched tape of all of the corners but I have watched a lot. He can play any scheme. He is the most physical in this class. He is an immediate Nickel. He can start for a lot of teams. Worst Case Houston @51, Teams: Minnesota 30, Indianapolis 31, Tampa Bay 35 and 42,San Diego 40, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Atlanta if they acquire a second round pick

Spud’s Spin: Minnesota @ 30

A.J. Edds- Second to Third; He can probably fit into a 3-4 but he can plug into a 4-3 immediately at either outside spot. Was just a cut below Greenway in my estimation as an athlete. Would be a perfect Sam for a Cover 2 team. Worst Case St. Louis @ 99, Teams: Indianapolis 63 and 94, New Orleans 64 and 95, Philadelphia 70 and 87, Jacksonville 74, New York Giants 76, Carolina 78, Atlanta 83 and 98, Minnesota 93, St. Louis 99

Spud’s Spin: Indianapolis @ 63

Tony Moeaki- Second to Third; His only real knock is health, very versatile, can play any scheme, can line up as the inline TE or as the H, could be viewed as a luxury pick by a successful team. Worst Case San Diego @ 91, Teams: New York Giants 46 and 76, Kansas City 50 and 68, New England 53*, Baltimore 57, Cleveland 71 and 85 and 92, Miami 73, Chicago 75, Carolina 78, Atlanta 83, Cincinnati 84, Green Bay 86, San Diego 91 *I think if New England drafts him they will trade down to do it. They don’t currently possess a late second round pick but they have 3 in the middle of the second round

Spud’s Spin: Kansas City @ 68

Kyle Calloway- Third to Fourth; I think he can play either guard slot or right tackle, big and strong enough to play in multiple schemes (not just zone), Worst Case Miami @ 145, Teams: any really but here are the teams with this positional need picking in these rounds- Miami, Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, Chicago, Green Bay, St. Louis, San Francisco

Spud’s Spin: Houston @ 81

Pat Angerer- Fourth to Sixth; MLBs tend to fall on draft day. I think Angerer could play either Mike or Will in any 4-3 scheme but his size will be held against him. It doesn’t matter how well he actually played too many teams have Height/ Weight standards that they won’t adjust. It could benefit him as he could fall to a good team/ scheme fit. The most MLBs taken over the last 5 drafts (first three rounds) was 6 in 2007. Last year 2 were selected. Worst Case Tampa Bay @ 172, Teams: Houston, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Seattle

Spud’s Spin: Atlanta @ 149

Dace Richardson- 7th to UFA, Dace’s best case is landing with a team with multiple 7th round picks** who hasn’t addressed the interior O-line. He has been eliminated from most draft lists I trust which doesn’t really mean anything, but some of those guys actually talk to scouts and agents. He may be better off signing with a team of his own choosing and not being picked.

** the teams: New England 5; Tampa Bay 4; Detroit 3; Indianapolis 3; Miami 3

Rafael Eubanks- 7th to UFA, I think it is even less likely that Rafael will be drafted. However I am almost certain he will have a chance to make a team. His best chance of making a roster might be with San Diego or Kansas City.

Trey Stross- UFA I would love to be wrong and hear his name get called. I really think he has a chance to get a few phone calls and do the try out thing similar to Andy Brodell last season. I really thought Stross improved greatly over the last two seasons. I think his best chance to make a roster would be with the teams: Baltimore, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Washington, and Chicago.

Dan Doering and Andy Keumpal- again I think they could have a chance to go the tryout route. Their best bet would be to try teams like St. Louis, Detroit, Green Bay, and Kansas City. It never hurts to try teams with Ferentz connections so Baltimore, San Diego, and New England shouldn’t be ruled out either.

Good luck to all of them.