Iowa is facing the most critical game in the last several seasons. Probably the most season defining game since the Ohio State game of 2005. There is one more really important game left on the schedule if Iowa clears this hurdle but it all depends on The Hawks winning this one. MSU has won three in a row after a rough September. The games I have reviewed are Michigan and Northwestern which both run spreads. I am going to make this a two parter since I did so much up front. The first part will be Iowa's offense vs MSU's defense.
They are a fairly talented team offensively and fairly veteran on the Oline. They are run a "multiple" offensive scheme which means they run a lot of different formations. They really like to run a lot of Two tight end formations, and have one elite Tight end in Charlie Gantt. They also use a lot of I and Power I (two tight ends). They like to line up with alot of "twin" formations(2 receiver to the same side of the field). Finally they use a lot of Shotgun Spread and are willing to run out of it. They favor the zone blocking scheme for their running game that Iowa uses. They will pull their guards more often than Iowa and run counters out of their I and power I similar to Wisconsin. I haven't seen them run play-action off of their counter play.
Passing-wise they love the screen play to the slot receiver and ran it at least 5 times against Northwestern. They have three talented receivers and two capable qbs. Blair White is a talented receiver who is out of the Ed Hinkel mold. Charlie Gantt was a thorn in Iowa's side last season and can run the whole passing route tree. The Tailbacks haven't been too involved in the passing game so far this season. The fullback Hawken has caught a few outlet passes but isn't a primary target.
Defensively Iowa will be looking in the mirror. MSU runs a 4-3 against just about any formation. Their WLB is a converted Safety who has the speed and cover skills to not look too foolish in zone coverage vs. wide outs. All three LBs are very speedy. They have three talented DL and play as many as 10 during a game. They don't stunt as often as Iowa. They look to play zone coverage most of the time and rush 4 most of the time like Iowa. Trevor Anderson is a very good player but isn't on the level of Brandon Graham or O'Brien Sholfield. When MSU forces a third and Long they go to a 3-3-5 look and generally blitz out of it. They bring at least 4 and usually 5 and look to disguise where it is coming from. Their secondary isn't extremely talented with the exception of Chris L. Rucker. He is a playmaker.
Last Season Iowa had the edge in this game statistically except for the turnover battle. They held Jovan Ringer to under 100 yards rushing and Brian Hoyer under 200 yards passing. Hoyer is now the backup Qb to one Tom Brady. Both teams are so drastically different I don't think it will really have any bearing on the game but I will print it anyway. Here are last season's stats:
MSU Iowa
FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Scks/ Agnst. FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Sck
15 34 91 13 24 184 1 19 39 151 15 22 158 3
Ok here are they match ups like usual.
79 Brian Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 58 Trevor Anderson SR 6'2 260, 89 Colin Neely JR 6'1 248, and 91 Ty Hoover FR 6'7 260 : The last couple of weeks have been rough ones for the bookend for the Iowa Tackles. Anderson, Neely, and Hoover are not as talented as the players they have faced in Graham and Scholfield but they play their responsibilities well. Anderson pretty much will be lined up over Calloway and Neely and Hoover should line up on Bulaga.
Spud's Spin: This should be an edge to Iowa. Although niether Iowa tackle is having the type of season that they were expected to they are still playing at a fairly high level and a mistake on the edge is pretty easy to see. Calloway certainly has the tougher assignment of the two but Anderson is more of an effort player and isn't really polished as he really just tries to bull his way in and occasionally works a spin move. Both players should be able to physically win in the run game.
78 Dace Richardson G, 77 Riley Reiff G, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, 63 Julian Vandervelde G Vs. 70 Oren Wilson JR 6'3 293, 99 Jerel Worthy R.FR 6'3 292, 92 Ishmyl Johnson SO 6'5 280, 96 Kevin Pickelman 6'4 268 SO: Freshman Jerel Worthy had to redshirt last season or he might have seen the field. He is super talented and has made plays all season for them. Oren Wilson doesn a nice job of occupying blockers and keeping the linebackers clean. Johnson and Pickelman see a lot of plays in order to keep Wilson and Worthy fresh but their is a significant drop off in run defense when they are in the game. Pickelman is pretty undersized for a Big Ten D-lineman (I know he is bigger than Klug). I am not a fan of the rotation going on right now but I understand why it is happening. I think that Reiff is better suited strength and build- wise to be a tackle but the experience he is getting right now is invualable. I think that Vandervelde has played well enough in the last two games to get the starting job back. I understand he looked like crap against Arkansas State but he wasn't the only one missing assignments in that game. I also think he has been close to flawless in pass protection this season and Iowa may have to abandon the running game early in this game to move the ball. Richardson has been the rock of the interior. I also think that Eubanks has been steadily improving and has been doing a steady job of making the line calls all year.
Spud's Spin: I would give Iowa the edge here when Reiff is not in the game and other wise call it a push. Iowa just has such and experience edge here and seemed really figure things out in the second half against Wisconsin. MSU really struggled against the only other smash mouth team they have faced this season in Wisconsin and I think Iowa's Oline is superior to the Badgers'.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 43 Eric Gordon SLB JR 6'0 228: Moeaki has played in two games in a row which may be a personal record. Just kidding. When Moeaki is healthy Iowa's offense is just so different. Every formation and play is just so much more effective. He didn't have his best blocking game and still was a difference maker with his receiving. Gordon is a very good player. He is very fast for the position, instinctive, and a solid tackler. He isn't going to awe you with his physicality when he tackles you but he gets you down. He also doesn't get fooled often, doesn't take a lot of false steps or poor angles to ball carriers. He is also a fairly effective blitzer and stays on the field regardless of the down. He isn't asked to do a lot of man to man coverage.
Spud's Spin: Big edge Iowa. As good as Gordon is there is no one in the big ten that I wouldn't give the edge to Moeaki to. Tony M. is possibly Iowa's most talented player and when he is on the field he is Iowa's most dangerous offensive option in the passing game. If MSU tries to cover him with a linebacker they in for a long day. If they let him block a safety we might actually be able to run the ball. He will win any match up he is presented.
82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 34 Brandon Denson SR 5' 11 230 WLB, 10 Chris Norman FR 6'1 210 WLB, and 33 Danny Fortener SR 6'1 205: Reisner and Morse are going to be responsible for getting a helmet on these guys in the running game. They should have a strength advantage on all of them. Denson is very fast, and is a converted safety playing his second season as a linebacker, he can be guilty of overpusuing and taking bad angles. Norman is a very good athlete but a true freshman and pretty inexperienced and vulnerable in coverage. I am guessing that Fortener will be the Safety in the box most of the time. He is a pretty solid tackler and run support is the strength of his game. I think all three of these guys are vulnerable to play-action if Iowa can get any semblance of a run game going.
Spud's spin: Overall Push, I give Iowa the edge in the passing game but Morse has been forgotten in that aspect of the offense lately after a strong start. I give MSU the edge in the run game with the help that Iowa's predicability gives defenses. It is tough to block players that know what you are running in advance.
WRS 15 DJK , 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 22 Colin Sandeman, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 29 Chris L. Rucker JR 6'2 199, 9 Jeremy Ware SR 5'11 188, 37 Ross Weaver SR 6'1 203, and 38 Kendell Davis-Clark SR 6'0 216: This is the big weakness for MSU and they try to hide it by playing a lot of zone coverage. They play a lot of base cover 2 when they can and when they get you in third and long they try to pressure so they don't have to expose their cbs for a long time. The best player in this unit is Rucker by far. Ware, Weaver and Davis-Clark are basically the same player- below average. They do generally tackle well and they are pretty much just looking to keep players in front of them. I would really like to take some time to complement all of Iowa's wide outs but especially Colin Sandeman. He has done a nice job returning punts and was the guy at the end of the game who was blocking when Iowa was killing clock.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. If Iowa comes out aggressive and opens up the playbook they should attack Ware early and often regardless who is lined up on his side. If they can loosen up the defense with some successful early passing then they can get that safety out of the box and try to run with even numbers. If they want to run early they need to be more creative and have three wide outs in the game. These guys are taking their blocking seriously. Chris Rucker is a good physical tackler, the rest are not that good in the run game.
32 Adam Robinson TB and 3 Brandon Wegher TB Vs. 53 Greg Jones MLB SR 6'1 228: Jones is probably the best linebacker in the Big Ten not wearing a Hawkeye or Penn State jersey. He plays his assignment well, is very fast, tackles well and can blitz very well for a mike 'backer. He is decent in pass coverage but his strength is sifting through traffic and tracking down ball carriers. He is a legit sideline to sideline playmaker. Robinson seems to be getting better every week. His vision is what is impressing me the most. He is also running very physical for his size. He had a pretty big drop on a third down last week but that is about the only negative you can point to. Wegher is still struggling to adapt to Iowa's scheme. He seems to be looking to bounce every run outside and is trying to outrun every player. He forgets that he has a little shimmy and can put some moves on guys. He has also been the victim of some pretty bad blocking and playcalls. He is an outstanding weapon in the passing game.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge MSU. Jones has tons of experience over both of these guys and really does a nice job of reading his keys. Iowa is pretty easy to scout and that should make for a long day for both of Iowa's runners unless KOK decides to change things up or the Oline absolutely dominate.
12 Rick Stanzi QB Vs. 11 Marcus Hyde FS 6'0 206 JR: Stanzi needs to continue the solid decision making and accuracy he displayed in Wisconsin. If he can manipulate Hyde with his eyes he should have the opportunity to make plays downfield with one on one coverage as I expect MSU to come out with 8 in the box. Hyde (the older brother of current Hawkeye frosh Micah) is a good athlete but he is a first year starter and hasn't estabished himself as a playmaker yet. If Rick can move him around good things could be in store as Tolzien had a huge day for Wisconsin against this secondary.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa/ I think Stanzi is more comfortable on the road. Stanzi's mobility is also very underrated. He isn't looking to run for a ton of yards, but he escapes trouble and looks to make throws and throws very, very well on the run. I am predicting his first turnover free game of the season. That would bring his average at Michigan State to 1 a game. I would also encourage KOK to take out the 2nd down qb sneak in the red zone. FOREVER!
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