Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Ohio State Vs Iowa Match Ups

If you aren't busy around 2:30 there is a football game you might be interested in.  It has some minor implications to the Big Ten Championship, but otherwise really shouldn't be all that interesting.  Iowa comes in limping, literally and figuratively, after a crushing loss to Northwestern and Ohio State comes in very confident after physically dominating a pretty good Penn State team in Happy Valley.  In my opinion this is a match up featuring the two best defenses in the Big Ten.  Ohio State has a fearsome front line that is actually 5 deep.  The headliner of the squad however is Terrell Pryor, the mobile QB and he certainly merits the attention.  How how Iowa contains Pryor on defense and if they can pass protect on offense will determine if this is a game in the second half.

Offensively the Buckeyes use a lot of Shotgun formations.  They will use several variations but like to keep a tight end on the field.  When they run under center they split 50/50 between I formations and two tight ends.  When they go I they almost always have "twin" receiver sets.  The most common "Ace" formation is a heavy bunch set with a staggered Tight end off set by a Wing and a tight Wide out. 
They don't have a lot of variation to their running game.  When they are in Shotgun the Oline uses a zone scheme and they are generally running some type of read option or a speed option.  They also have called QB draws but their most effective running plays this season have been when Pryor pulls the ball down on called passing plays.  When they run out of the I they usually man block with a guard pulling.  Their Fullback #44 Zach Boren is a very effective lead blocker and doesn't often miss his assignment.  When they use their Ace Bunch scheme they have three basic runs.  A lead over the strong side with the weak side guard pulling, a strong- side toss sweep, and a counter play with both the strong side guard and tackle pulling.  This is very similar to the play Wisconsin had a lot of success with in the beginning of that game.  I haven't seen the boot but I know its coming.
OSU doesn't have a real complicated passing scheme.  Pryor doesn't sell playaction well.  The will roll him out on occasion but he is most comfortable from the Shotgun.  If #8 Posey is in the slot something is coming his way.  He doesn't line up there often and it is usually some type of slot screen.  OSU's best pass play is usually just a bomb lobbed for Posey.  #12 Sazenbacher runs decent routes but Pryor doesn't seem comfortable working the middle of the field.  The tight ends aren't often involved in the passing game by design. 

Defensively OSU runs a base 4-3 scheme out of a 3-4 look.  The weak side end is often in a 2 point stance but it is rare that he doens't rush or play contain responsibilities.  Against traditional schemes they play their Sam LB over the TE like Iowa.  If they go 4-3 against a 3 wide look the Sam lines up over the slot unless they are blitzing.  If he isn't on the slot something is coming and they are usually in man cover.  On obvious passing situations they go to a 3-3-5 look with sometime 2 men down sometimes 3 and sometimes 4.  They are very good about disguising blitzs.  They have a lot of talent on that side of the ball and they play alot of players in the secondary but they don't tip their hand by who is in the game.  They trust any of their players to man up anyone they are matched with although they try to play two deep safeties often.  I think their linebacking unit is solid, not spectacular.  If you had their DC alone after too many beers, I bet he would admit he would rather have Iowa's players.  They are pretty quick and they hustle, though.  The whole team hustles to the ball.  It is like watching Iowa.  They rally to the ball better than any team I have watched all season.  Heyward and Worthington can be unblockable at times and they move around.  #43 Nate Williams looks like a young Matt Roth.  He is going to be a player to watch in this game.  #4 Kurt Coleman is a steady player but this secondary benefits from the pressure the front 4 generate.  He doesn't flash to me and is slower to read the run than the other safeties he plays with. 

Special teams is an area where Iowa may be able to gain an advantage.  There kicking game is struggling and they can't reliably make a field goal over 40 yards right now with the injury to regular K Aarron Pettrey.  Replacement Devin Barclay has looked shaky and may not be counted on to finish drives.  He has looked fine on kick offs and they have a pretty solid cover unit.  DJK has looked like he was a block or a stumble away from making big plays over the last couple of weeks and if he were to break one this week it would be a big morale boost to the entire team.
The punter Jon Thoma is decent and he gets a lot of air under the ball preventing returns.  The cover unit is also outstanding.  Given that Iowa really doesn't have an established returner here I would give OSU a huge edge here.
Ray Small is an outstanding returner on both punt and kick returns.  He is fast, shifty and sets up blocks very, very well.  He also gets good blocking from both units and they are the rare return unit that isn't flagged every other return.  Iowa must contain him especially on the Kick Offs and make OSU execute for 70 to 80 yards a drive.

The Match Ups:

79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT VS. 97 Cameron Heyward 6'6 287 DE/DT JR, 90 Thad Gibson 6'2 240 WDE JR, 43 Nathan Williams 6'3 245 DE SOHeyward is the key here.  He lines up anywhere on the front line and is extremely disruptive.  He also prepares very well and understands what the other team is trying to do.  When he is playing DE he plays his responsibility first, he doesn't crash in on the running game.  He pretty much just bull rushes but he has really long arms and uses them well.  He has a great first step and is explosive for his size.  He sets up his blocker all game long taking different routes to the QB.  In the run game he shoots gaps and disrupts.  He carries lineman and can make tackles while engaged.  He is the best d-lineman Iowa has faced this season and they have faced some good ones.  Gibson and Williams line up in a 2 point stance a lot.  Gibson is the more likely of the two to drop into coverage and he looks good doing it.  He is a very good athlete.  He is really fast but tries to beat tackles to the outside every time.  He is agile enough to turn the corner in a hurry.  He shed's blocks from TEs well but can be handled by Olineman in the run game.  Given another off-season to bulk up, he could be a better college player than Gholston was.  Williams was the guy who really flashed to me, though.  I hadn't heard of him and all I saw was him living in the other teams' backfield on passing situations.  He can rush from either side and from a two point stance or with his hand on the ground.  He is cat quick and uses his hands very well.  He is relentless and never gives up on a play.  Calloway has struggled with speed rushers and he will be facing two in Williams and Gibson.  I thought he handled Wootton for most of the day, and Davie rarely rushed for NW.  Calloway probably had the best game of all of the Iowa lineman last week.  Bulaga will be lineman matched up with Heyward most often.  He has the tools to handle him and if he could keep him quiet that would go a long way towards making JVB's first start easier.  Bulaga has the feet to handle the speed of the other two.  What Calloway and Bulaga need to work on is seeing the blitz and getting the inside guy first.  The whole line needs help with that though.
Spud's Spin: Push.  I think the bookends for Iowa can hold their own in both phases of the game.  In fact I think Calloway can dominate Gibson and Williams in the running game.  It all hinges on how well they pass protect.  Both of these guys are Sunday players and possibly even high round selections.  If they are playing their best football they can handle anything OSU throws at them.

77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs. DTs 84 Doug Worthington 6'6 276 SR, 92 Todd Denlinger 6'2 292 SR, and 54 John Simon 6'3 274 True FR: Worthington is the standout of this group.  He is long armed and very quick off the ball.  He is very athletic- he dropped into coverage a few times in zone blitzs.  He also plays very well while engaged.  He hustles too, he will make a play 20 yards from the line of scrimmage.  Denlinger is a two down player.  He comes off in obvious passing downs.  He is a decent run stuffer who plays low and flows down the LOS against a zone scheme closing off cut back lanes on runs that flow away from him.  He isn't a great athlete, he is a try hard guy.  Simon is a very good athlete who is getting decent playing time as a true freshman and playing both interior spots.  He gets off the ball well but is better suited to rush the passer than to stop the run right now.  He can be pushed off the ball.  Reiff, Eubanks and Vandervelde had a rough go of it against NW.  I assume that Eubanks is in charge of line calls and he needs to do a really good job on Saturday because I don't think you want a R.Fr QB calling out protections with everything else he has on his plate.  The Hawkeye Interior really struggled with identifying blitzers when the Wildcats ran zone schemes at them in a 3-3-5 look and that is OSU's basic Nickel package.  They must do a better job communicating this weekend.  I think if these guys can get a push in the run game they can do a very good job on OSU's linebackers.  I think that Eubanks has really come on with his run blocking recently and that Vandervelde has turned the corner in that phase of the game also.  KOK could help them out formationally by getting a seventh or eight defender out of the box in this game.  Reiff is getting a better push than I initially gave him credit for but he will have his hands full in this game.
Spud's Spin:  Edge OSU.  I went into this thinking the Buck's would have a much bigger advantage here and they still could.  Worthington is a beast and Heyward spends half of his time lined up as a DT.  It is almost more important for Eubanks to call out where Heyward is than it is for him to block someone.  When Denlinger is in the game Iowa needs to run to his side and cut Heyward and make sure he is on the ground.  That would usually mean a run to Calloway's side.  Iowa cannot give up on the run too early, as OSU's LBs and Safeties can be exploited if they actually have to make plays. 

81 Tony Moeaki Vs. 38 Austin Spitler 6'3 234 SLBSpitler is a tough player who reads plays well but is over aggressive and can take bad angles to the ball.  He has very good speed and lateral quickness and is a very good tackler but he isn't scary physical.  He (and this whole linebacking corps) is a drag down tackler and he can be run through.  He is usually pretty sound though.  He is very good in pass coverage and looks comfotable in space.  Moeaki has been gameplanned effectively by the opposing team since the Michigan game.  His only catches are coming on playaction when teams are drastically fooled.  He runs good routes but he has been bracketed almost every time he has gone out and has stayed in and protected on 33% of Iowa's passing plays in the last two games.  He has done a pretty good job of pass blocking and an excellent job run blocking.
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa. I know Hawkeye fans are getting restless with the lack of attention that TM has gotten in the passing game recently but it has opened things up for the outside receivers and they have been taking advantage.  Iowa is also trying to do things to get him open.  Tony has a physical advantage and is just as athletic as Spitler, he can take him out on Strong side running plays.  If he is the hot read in a blitz scenario he needs to make a play after the catch for Iowa to be successful.  I have a feeling he will be a leading character in this game as OSU hasn't seemed to scheme for any one player this season.

82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 51 Ross Homan 6'0 230 WLB JRHoman is their best LB in my opinion.  He is very assignment sound and more athletic than he looks.  He is the best at sifting through traffic and he makes plays with blockers on him.  He is also very aggressive and can be caught on playaction.  He stays in on Nickel and gets good depth on zone covers.  He doesn't look out of place playing man but it isn't something he is asked to do often.  He doesn't miss a lot of tackles.  He reads plays very well and is another guy who never gives up on a play.  Reisner and Morse do a lot of blocking on the backside of running plays and they may want to stick to this guy for an extra second or so if he is their assignment.  Morse has been struggling a little after his strong start and needs to reassert himself with some of the physical lead blocking he is capable of.  Reisner needs to be an outlet for a young QB and neither can afford to drop a pass if it comes their way.
Spud's Spin:  Edge OSU.  Homan is going to make tackles and these two need to make sure they aren't TFL's.  Homan diagnoses the run pretty well and Iowa tends to tip the run with motion so he could have a field day if he isn't blocked well.  Morse and Reisner must not miss an assignment in pass protection.  That could lead directly to a turnover in this game.  Turnovers = loss.

15 DJK, 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 6 Keenan Davis, and 22 Colin Sandeman Vs. CBs 5 Chimdi Chekwa 6'0 188 JR, 10 Devin Torrence 6'1 193 JR, NB/S 7 Jermale Hines 6'2 210 JR, 13 Andre Amos 6'1 183 Sr:  The one thing all of these guys have in common is they are tall for corners.  Chekwa is fast and aggressive, he likes to press and he can do it well.  OSU plays a lot of Cover 2 and they let Chekwa disrupt routes with physical play.  He has good make up speed and likes to read the QB.  Torrence isn't nearly as aggressive and he gives more space on his side.  He is quick but he doesn't have the awareness or closing speed of Chekwa yet.  Hines is a safety but he plays over the slot in the Nickel package and he has very good closing speed.  He understands route combos, but he plays his responsibilities and doesn't seem to jump off of his man.  He looks stiff when he is asked to turn and run with a receiver downfield.  Amos must be hurt because he is hardly ever on the field and I rememer looking pretty solid in limited appearances before his injury last season.  This unit excells in zone coverage and they usually get very solid safety play behind them so they can take some chances.  I don't know if Sandeman will play but it would be nice to have him back returning punts.  DJK and Stross are Ohio natives and you know this game means a lot to them.  McNutt has really impressed me more every week as I watch the little things he does on his route running.  Davis ran good routes last week he just didn't get a chance to catch any passes as the only ball thrown his way was more of a throw away than a real attempt to complete a pass.  All of these guys continue to do a great job in the run phase.
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa.  Chekwa is good.  I would prefer that Iowa take limited shots to his side of the field and if they do they are downfield.  Torrence and Hines can be exploited and if they are in man should be targeted.  Hines especially could be vulnerable to double moves out of the slot if Iowa hits a couple of early quick passes in his area.  The Key is for JVB to have time to take advantage of longer routes developing.  Iowa must have an outlet designed in every play.

TBs 3 Brandon Wegher and 32 Adam Robinson Vs. 36 Brian Rolle 5'11 221 MLB JrRolle is very fast and he is very good in pass coverage but I think he is overrated.  When he appears on post season awards lists is is completely due to the players on OSU's front line.  He is rarely engaged by a lineman and when he is it is over.  He runs around traffic and consequently overpursues often.  He is very fast for a MLB.  He has the speed to make up for a false step or two in play action.  He stays on the field for Nickel.  I don't have any super secret information that Robinson is playing, I am just reading between the lines of some articles I have read and looking at how soon Moeaki came back from a similar injury.  If Robinson can give Iowa two series a half it could make all the difference in the world.  Wegher is playing well.  He doesn't always pick the best hole but he is a true freshman running in an entirely new scheme for him.  He has stopped trying to be faster than every one and is truly making one cut and getting up the field.  He lost his first fumble last week in his tenth game and it was questionable (I thought he lost it).  On the TD that was called back he showed the speed and burst that recruitniks have been telling the casual fan about.  He isn't going to outrun too many OSU defenders but if he can consistently find 3-4 yards a pop that would be huge in this game. 
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa.  First I don't think Rolle is that good.  He is pretty good, but not outstanding "man I wish he was on my team" (Sean Lee, Navarro Bowman, Greg Jones) good.  Second if Robinson plays a single series and gets any kind of positive yardage it will give the Offense a mental push.  Finally I think that Wegher has gotten better every week and the way He and Robinson were alternated has prevented him from hitting any kind of "freshman wall" and could find success both as a runner and a receiver.

16 James Vandenberg QB (6'3 205) Vs. 4 Kurt Coleman 5'11 188 SS SR and 21 Anderson Russell 6'0 205 FS SR:  Coleman is a very good player, he is a sound tackler who understands his role and doesn't try to do too much.  He is very good in coverage and plays a devastating centerfield.  He is great at reading a QB's eyes and breaking on long passes.  He rarely lets anyone behind him when he is zone cover.  Russell is the box safety.  He isn't extremely physical and it wouldn't shock me for Hines to start instead of him.  He is really fast.  He can play man cover over a slot or an outsider receiver.  This is basically his 4th season as a starter so he has plenty of experience.  Vandy needs to know where these guys are on the field and what it means to him.  OSU plays a lot of Cover 2 but I saw plenty of defenses called and many of them were very well disguised.  If he decides to take a shot downfield and test one of these guys I would prefer it be Russell because Coleman is a playmaker.
Spud's Spin:  Edge OSU.  This could be a huge edge depending on how aggressively Co-DCs Jim Heacock and Luke Hickell choose to be.  I think they should try to confuse JVB and Iowa's line with as many looks as possible.  Northwestern really had a lot of success with zone blitzes.  That certainly isn't a foriegn concept to this team and is a natural call given the front they present on all three downs.  If they come out and play 2 deep with 7 or 8 in coverage I think they are playing into Iowa's hands.  I think Vandy is smart and can be accurate if he is given the chance to get a rhythm in this game.  He came out hot after halftime of the NW game and NW began attacking after that.  If you think Iowa is conservative you haven't watched a lot of Buckeye football. 

94 Adrian Clayborn RDE and 91 Broderick Binns LDE Vs. 64 Jim Cordle 6'4 297 LT SR and 76 J.B. Shugarts 6'8 298 RT SO:  Cordle has move to left tackle this season from center and the results have been somewhat mixed.  He has really good feet and quickness but can be overwhelmed by physical pass rushers.  He is a technical run blocker and isn't going to get a lot of pancakes in the run game.  He has been fighting injuries all season.  Shugarts has slow feet and is unsure of himself in pass protection.  He has really long arms though and he has a good punch.  If he can lock on, he generally wins.  He plays a little high in the run game and doesn't generate the kind of push that you would expect.  He isn't real effective in the second level due to his feet.  Both Clayborn and Binns got Sacks last week against a scheme that is designed to get rid of the ball.  Clayborn was in the backfield all day long and really played well.  Binns also played pretty well but he struggled a little against the run.  I kept thinking he was going to pick off one of those slants or outs and completely change the game.  He is very technically sound for a first year starter and a redshirt sophmore at that.
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa.  Clayborn and Binns are the exact kind of match up that each player for OSU struggles with individually.  While they could have a free path to the QB they must play contain first and eliminate Pryor's rushing yards on broken passing plays.  It is fine for him to get some on designed runs because then Iowa can hit him, but Iowa needs to keep Pryor in the pocket and throwing downfield. 

DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs.65 LG Justin Boren 6'3 315 JR, 50 C Mike Brewster 6'5 296 SO, and 70 RG Bryant Browning 6'4 312: Boren is the best player of this group.  He is a physical run blocker and the most consistent pass protector.  He does a nice job of finding someone to hit when he pulls and finishes his blocks with some nastiness.  Brewster and Browning struggle in both phases.  Browing has slow feet and really struggles when he is asked to pull.  None of these guys excell at getting to the second level when they run their zone scheme out of the shotgun.  Browning really struggles with pass protection.  He has slow feet and loses his balance easily.  Ballard and Klug played well against NU but they will be tested here.  They really need to stop the inside run as that is the key to OSU's scheme outside of shotgun.  They also need to be involved in the contain phase as Pryor likes to run up the middle if he is flushed.  Daniels has come on in spot duty with Ballard sometimes sliding out to DE and has done a nice job.  He needs to play contain first and not run himself out of the play if he gets a good pass rush.

Spud's  Spin:  Edge Iowa.  This would be larger if not for Pryor's escapability.  It is more important for Klug and Ballard to stop the run, especially early, than to rush the passer.  They should be able to dominate the players in front of them but they must stay in their lanes on the pass rush.  Daniels is quietly having a solid season backing these two up.

42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 86 Jake Ballard 6'6 256 TE SR:  Ballard might as well be another offensive tackle.  He is kept in to block a lot.  He has decent hands, he just isn't often a target in the passing game.  OSU doesn't run a lot of balanced formations so this match up doesn't totally make sense, for the most part it will be Angerer or Edds lined up on Ballard.  #11 Jacob Stoneburner is the second TE and I talked about the Fullback Boren in the offensive breakdown.  Hunter is reading his run keys really well and this will be a nice change of pace for him.  If Greenwood is back I think it will make him more aggressive.  I saw him trying to hide behind Binns a few times as if he was unsure if he had safety help of some stretch type runs against NU.  Early this season he was attacking those.  He also is Iowa's best linebacker at attacking Power formations and really takes on blockers well.  
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa:  Hunter will lead the team in tackles.  Hopefully most of them are for little to no gain.  I think he is going to be busy.  I expect a lot of option to the weak side of OSU's formation and Hunter is going to have to be the guy who stops that play dead in its tracks.  He is also going to have to attack the run in OSU's traditional sets.  If he can beat there lineman to there spots he could pile up the TFLs.  

49 SLB A.J. Edds and CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 8 Devier Posey 6'3 205 SO, 12 Dane Sazenbacher 5'11 175 JR, 82 Ray Small 5'11 180 SR, and 9 Duron Carter 6'2 183 FR:  Posey is a stud.  He is probably the #1, 2 and 3 option on every passing play.  I am not sure if he runs great routes or he is just that athletic.  He gets behind coverage in every game.  He makes catches in traffic and is the one player I fear with the ball in his hands.  I wish he was a year older so he was gone after this season.  Sazenbacher is a good route runner and tough blocker.  He is wasted in this offense right now because TP is uncomfortable throwing over the middle where this guy should be making his living.  Small is a better returner than a receiver and looks disinterested if he's not the primary call.  He is shifty after the catch but needs lots of space to work.  Carter is the son of NFLer Chris and I think that is why he is playing.  His dad "just caught touchdown" passes and he just drops passes.  He is a true Freshman. Iowa had some success blitzing Edds against NU and I think they should do that again when OSU is in shotgun.  Pryor isn't going to beat you with his mind but he can throw the ball about 70 yards with a nice arc and they try it about 8 times a game.  They are bound to get lucky once unless TP is to gunshy to let that develop.  This is the kind of game that Spievey has to be relishing.  I guarantee if they throw his way he will have at least one pick.  Prater also should be excited as this won't be the disciplined short passing game he had to face last week.  I thought he did well last week.  Lowe played only a little last week on defense as he and Hyde came in on one down for a dime package.  I don't expect to see a lot of Nickel this week either.  He has come a long way in a few short weeks since being picked on at Arky State.
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa:  Posey is the only thing keeping it from being a huge edge.  Iowa is much more talented in this area than PSU or Purdue or Wisconsin for that matter.  Spievey will open up some eyes on a national level.  Edds apparently already has.  Look in they 11-11 links at the one I posted.  Prater is going to have to play big in this game but he hasn't given me a reason all season for me to think he won't.

43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 3 Brandon Saine 6'1 217 JR, 1 Dan "Boom" Herron 5'10 197 SO, and 29 Jordan Hall 5'9 180 FR:  Saine  is a tough runner.  He has good feet and decent vision, and when he gets a head of steam he falls foward.  He struggles in pass protection.  Herron and Saine or of the same mold but Herron is a little more explosive early.  Neither has stunning breakaway speed.  I understand Herron is nursing an injury but he has never impressed me.  Jordan Hall is the guy to fear here.  He is a true freshman and seems to have the most patience of the three.  He is shifty in the hole and has an incredible burst.  He does possess the home run speed.  He isn't going to break a lot of tackles though, he is looking to juke someone or run around them.  I am not sure he has all the protections down because he isn't often asked to stay in and block.  These guys are rarely thrown a pass.  Angerer has continued to play outstanding.  He showed great acceleration on his blitzes last week taking out Persa on one of them.  He finishes plays.  He sheds traffic about as well as anyone not named Greg Jones in the Big Ten.  He is going to have to play the run extra aggressively in this game because TP rarely throws into his zone.  I wouldn't be shocked to see him blitz 5- 8 times again in this game.
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa:  Angerer will get his tackles.  He needs to get them at the LOS or behind it.  I would love to see him spy TP but Iowa hasn't really done that to anyone all year.  He has the make up speed to get fooled in Playaction but Pryor really doesn't sell it well anyway.  If Ballard and Klug take out the two guards and center Hunter and Angerer will feast in this game.

9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood/ 20 Joe Conklin FS Vs. 2 QB Terrelle Pryor 6'6 235 SO Pryor is very physically gifted.  As a passer, he has an amazing touch and range on his deep ball. He has above average arm strength but if you had a radar gun it wouldn't suprise me if JVB had the bigger gun.  He is much more comfortable passing out of the shotgun.  From under center his footwork can be a little sloppy and he isn't an accurate passer from anywhere.  He is very streaky.  He stares down his first read a lot.  More than Stanzi a lot.  He is a pick waiting to happen.  He really doesn't like the middle of the field, he works the edges and the deep ball on either hash- to the sideline.  What makes him special though is he running.  He doesn't look fast but he eats up a lot of ground with each stride.  He is very nimble for his size and has very good quickness and suddenness.  He makes great reads in the option game.  He is most dangerous after he pulls the ball down on a called pass.  He almost always breaks contain and the next defender miss.  He is strong enough to break arm tackles  He does a good job of protecting himself.  Sash is playing about as good as any safety in the nation.  He has 6 picks this season and diagnoses plays faster than any other safety I have scouted.  He goes from Centerfielder to runstopper in the blink of an eye and he rarely misses a tackle.  Greenwood was beginning to get the recoginition he deserved before his injury.  He really made a leap from last season to this one.  He is another player who diagnoses plays well and closes gaps fast.  With him in there the LBs can be more aggressive chasing TP around.  I think Conklin has been very good in coverage.  He hasn't tried to do too much and keeps the play in front of him.  He made a nice catch on his pick last weekend.  He doesn't have the game experience that Sash and Greenwood have yet to make the snap decision on run/pass and it shows.  I think he is also a step slower physically.  In this game that will equal two steps slow and that could be the margin if Iowa's offense holds up their end.
Spud's Spin:  Edge Push if Greenwood plays, Edge OSU if Conklin is in the whole game.  Tressel will be smart enough to run his Shotgun speed options away from both Sash and Edds, negating there read and speed abilities.  Pryor has played within himself and has the playmakers to help him win this game if he doesn't try to do it all himself.  I think Iowa has a good chance of pressuring him into mistakes.  Its how he handles the adversity that will show how far he has come this season.  If OSU gameplans around Sash and protects Pryor 3 out of 4 passes Iowa cannot win this game.

Some Terrible Predictions:
1.  Jeremiha Hunter 18 tackles 5 TFL 2FF amd 2 sacks BTDPOW
2.  Adrian Clayborn hits Pryor with his shoulder nearly scalping him and will again be flagged for it.  
3.  Devier Posey will have more catches than the rest of his teammates combined 6.
4.  Brian Rolle will tackle Brandon Wegher for a 3 yard gain and we will hear how awesome he is.  He will have 14 less tackles than Hunter.
5.  Trey Stross will score the winning TD with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter on an out and up from the slot.  It will be the last points either team scores.

Spud's Spin:  An already tought task got tougher last weekend with around 11:54 seconds left on the gameclock in the second quarter.  When Stanzi went down the Hawks played like they had been punched in the gut for the rest of the first half.  The second half was a different story.  They moved the ball better than you remember taking only one three and out on the second series of the second half.  This game absolutely hinges on the play of both lines on either side.  Each D-line has a decided advantage over the other teams' O-line.  But there is a reason Iowa is 9-1 and it isn't all Ricky Stanzi.  Iowa's defense is the best of the Ferentz era.  They have been put in bad spot after bad spot and they continue to respond.  OSU is coming in overconfident in this game.  Pryor, Posey, Herron, Brewster, Boren, Heyward, and Worthington none of these guys have played Iowa.  They don't know what its like, they have only heard.  Iowa's Oline has been getting a lot of criticism and much of it is fair.  I bet they come out and push OSU around on the first drive at least.  If that happens KOK needs to ride that for as long as he can.  Some of the criticism is unfair.  I don't know how many times it has been between a safety and Wegher or Robinson for a big play and the safety has won, but when that is the case the O-line has done its job and I have seen plenty of that this season, too.  This season's run struggles aren't entirely the fault of the O-line.  This is Ohio State in the 'Shoe and I know Iowa is supposed go in meekly like a lamb to slaughter.  I just don't see it this season.
Iowa 17 OSU 10 poor Reece Davis having to wipe the spittle off of his face. 

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