Iowa's season continues to look rosy, even after last week's scare. The funny thing about roses though, they come with thorns, and no team has been a bigger thorn in Iowa's side than Northwestern. NU has won 7 of the last 12 meetings and the last two at Iowa. I almost demolished my house after the 2005 fiasco and actually broke some of my wife's lawn decorations. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of that this season. Last season Iowa had a comfortable 17- 3 margin heading into the half when Andy Brodell fumbled a punt return. NU scored a TD with 0:17 left in the first half to gain momentum on their way to a 22 to 17 win. This is the infamous 1rst and goal from the 8 game where the playcalls are still intensely debated. I don't want to spark one here I would just like to point out that Iowa dominated this game for the most part statistically except for two key things -the final score and the turnover margin.
Offensively Northwestern returns just 4 starters from last season, but this late in the year that doesn't really matter. They are a pass first spread team that compares alot to Iowa State. NU uses the same "check with me" style of OC call from the sideline for audibles and they like to vary their tempo from snap to snap. They are almost exclusively shotgun. They run a lot of empty backfield sets usually with "trips" to the wide side of the field. They occasionally run a "bunch" formation similar to the one that Indy ran. They also feature a "trips" formation to the wideside with their "superback" (TE) lining up on the line of scrimmage as a regular tight end. When they line up 4 wide and send #s 9, 89, and especially 80 in motion look for the run. They have 6 basic running plays- your standard QB read option, a speed QB option to either side (short or wide side of the field), QB Draw, QB lead, HB zone lead play, and the most effective play is a counter draw play off of their sprint rollout passing package. Their passing game consists of a lot of crossing patterns, out routes and slants. They run a lot of rubs (clearing patterns designed to free another receiver) and are very effective at it. They rarely attack deep outside of the hashes. I saw only one completion in the three games I reviewed (MSU, Indiana, and PSU) and only recall three attempts. They mostly attack the middle of the field and throw the ball less than ten yards. This is a passing attack designed to beat Iowa's defense. But it depends on accurate and timely passing. The offensive line runs both a zone scheme and some power blocking, but they are more effective with the zone scheme. They are pretty athletic and the interior lineman are excellent downfield and very good in the screen game. In pass protection they cut a lot and like to move the pocket more than any team Iowa has faced this season. They are also pretty young, but they have a lot of starts for their age.
Defensively NU runs a base 4-3. They returned 10 starters this season but have really been a mash unit. 20 different players have started a game this season including 9 different in the secondary. They play a ton of cover 3. They are very aggressive in run support and very vulnerable to play action. Wootton is very savvy and plays his contain responsibilities well. When teams run playaction to their left NU has had the SLB play contain and attack the QB- every time in all three games I watched. Northwestern runs a very aggressive defense blitzing on first and second down at least 60% of the time. They send the SLB a lot, but I have seen corners, safeties and six, and seven man blitzes from them regardless of the formation they were facing. They usually tip the blitz however. On third and long they play some form of Nickel 80% of the time. They blitz 70% of the time. When they are going to blitz they show. They run a 3-3 5 but sometimes the third linebacker (Quentin Davie #41) lines up as a defensive end and Wootton slides inside. They usually run a twist together. This is a very veteran defense with five seniors on it and they have experienced beating Iowa at least twice if not three times. They will not be intimidated by Kinnick.
Special Teams: Stefan Demos is a very good kicker. He has had one blocked (PSU) and has only missed one other kick this season in 15 attempts. He is a terrible punter and Iowa would be better off trying to block every punt because his punts are tough to field and they don't go very far anyway. Now he will probably punt one 33 yards and it will roll another 30 and all anyone will remember is I said he wasn't good. He is a kicker who is punting because they have no one else at the moment. The kick return unit is nothing special and the returners are tailbacks Stephen Simmons and Jeravin Matthews. Neither is a threat to outrun anyone on Iowa's kick cover unit and they usually don't get very good blocking. They also give up big plays on their kick off unit. Fisher from Indiana returned one for a TD and PSU almost returned two against them. MSU started the game off against them with one for 55 yards. Iowa should have some success against this unit. Brewer is the punt returner, and although he doesn't have elite speed he can break a tackle or two and he doesn't fool around- he catches the punt and looks to get downfield. He is very sure-handed.
Now for the matchups:
94 Adrian Clayborn RDE and 91 Broderick Binns LDE Vs. 75 Al Netter 6 6 290 LT SO and Neal Deiters 6 8 315 RT R.FR: Netter and Deiters have done a very good job for NU this season. They understand the scheme and what is asked of them. They aren't dominating in the run game but they do a pretty good job of trying to seal d-lineman and are very good when they get there hands on linebackers. They aren't asked to pull very often. Deiters is especially adept at running speed rushers out of the play. Netter really struggles with an inside move and was beaten repeatedly in multiple games by this technique. Clayborn has owned basically everyone he has played this season. It is tough to get sacks against the types of schemes he has been facing and he has still managed to tally 6.5 sacks and 7 hits on the QBs. Binns has also played extremely well this season holding up much better against the run than expected and developing a knack for knocking down passes at the line of scrimmage. He played very well again last week string out several runs and knocking down two more passes. He has tallied 4 sacks and leads the team with 8 pass deflections. That is an incredible number for a defensive lineman
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Kirlew and Middleton pressured Kafka for most of the day when NU faced Indiana and when Persa came in for Kafka against Penn State the entire Oline for NU seemed to lose their composure. Iowa runs more "games" than any other team in the Big Ten and NU really struggled with that in the second half against Penn State. Iowa's front four is also the most disciplined group that this team will have faced all season. These two are in for a long day.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard and 95 Karl Klug Vs. LGs 63 Keegan Grant 6 2 295 JR, 72 Brian Mulroe 6 4 275 R.FR, C Ben Burkett 6 4 280 SO, and RG Doug Bartels 6 4 285 SO: Burkett and Bartels are returning starters and have started every game of this season. Mulroe and Grant seem to be alternating series the last couple of games and Mulroe seems to make the running game a little more effective. I am pretty sure he is bigger than his listed size. These guys are all very athletic and run their zone scheme very well. They all have very good feet for O-lineman. They get downfield very well and are very effective selling screens and draws. They are not the strongest in pass protection if asked to block for longer than three or four seconds but the ball should be out by then in their scheme. When Bartels was asked to block Jerel Worthy, Jamie Kirlew, and Jared Odrick one on one he consistently lost this battle. This could lead to a big day for Karl Klug. Ballard is playing unreal right now and is obviously adjusted to his position change. He is demanding double teams and is still beating them. He is playing the run on his way to the QB and his first step is breathtaking.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Bartels and Burkett are going to have to concentrate on Ballard leaving a one on one for Klug most of the time. NU is obviously having an issue there or they wouldn't be inserting a Redshirt Freshman into the lineup this late in the season. Klug has been playing very well this season but it is easy to get overshadowed when he is surrounded by the rest of the talent of Iowa's D-line. Klug is athletic enough to play spy if Iowa chooses to and Kafka is healthy enough to merit it.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 20 Scott Concannon 5 10 190 So, 25 Stephen Simmons 5 8 175 JR, 19 Arby Fields 5 9 190 FR: Concannon is probably the least physically gifted of this trio but he is the one who gets yards. He runs with great pad level and finds what is there and hits the hole hard. He isn't likely to break a long gain but he won't miss an assignment either. He is just keeping the seat warm for Fields though. Fields looks like a thinner Tyrell Sutton. He just doesn't have it all figured out yet. NU really tries hard to get him out in space. They run a lot of screens for him and he plays the slot a ton and looks natural doing it. He has good hands and runs pretty good routes. He doesn't break a lot of tackles but I would guess he isn't near his listed weight. Simmons is somewhere between Concannon and Fields. He is a little more shifty than Concannon but doesn't have the burst or natural ability of Fields. He will bounce off of a tackle or two but isn't really a power back. He is also comfortable catching the ball. He had a very nice kick return versus Penn State but didn't have the speed to house it. Angerer is having an amazing season. He is a great all around MLB and keeps impressing me every game with how complete his game is becoming. He has become more physical each week it seems and with the weakness of this line and lack of a true Fullback I think he can shut down the tailbacks by himself. Where he will be tested is in pass coverage this week as NU tries to attack the gaps between LBs with crossing routes and slant patterns and is looking for YAC. He must tackle well this week.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I am not sure how much NU will actually run the ball against Iowa. They stuck with it against PSU and had very little success. I think many of Angerer's tackles could come on QB scrambles and I hope Iowa chooses not to line him on the 2nd slot receiver when the Wildcats go empty backfield. I think when the Wildcats show run he should attack downhill and leave the backside for his teammates to clean up regardless of who is playing QB. He is more athletic than Concannon and Simmons and could force a turnover or at least pile up some Tackles for Losses and if NU is off schedule they are much less effective. 3rd and long is a death sentence for them.
49 A.J. Edds SLB, 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB, 19 Amari Spievey RCB, 28 Shaun Prater LCB, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 12 Andrew Brewer 6 3 215 SR, 85 Zeke Markshausen 5 11 185 SR, 11 Jeremy Ebert 6 0 180 SO, 5 Sidney Stewart 6 1 185 JR, 6 Charles Brown 5 11 180 SO, and SBs 9 Drake Dunsmore 6 3 230 SO, 80 Brendan Mitchell, 44 Mark Woodsum, and 89 Sean Rooks: The two most important player for the 'Cats are Brewer and Markshausen. Brewer is a playmaker and possibly a Sunday player. If he can put on some weight he has some TE potential in the NFL. If he can't, he still runs polished enough routes and uses his body so well the right team might pick him late. He reminds me of Marty Booker. He excells at getting an inside release and running slants or in patterns. He also ran a beautiful fade route stealing the ball from Fisher- the Indiana corner. He can break tackles and do something with the ball in his hands. He isn't afraid to take a hit from linebackers over the middle. He has very good hands and great chemistry with Kafka. Markshausen is a nice story I am sick of hearing. I will save it for you to hear over and over and over again Saturday. He isn't real athletic, just a football player. He catches anything in his radius. He understands his offense and coverage and sits in soft spots in zone coverage. They run a lot of WR screens for him and he is pretty good after the catch. The rest of these guys are just that- guys. Ebert and Brown look like they might be good soon but they aren't running the primary routes that Brewer and Markshausen are. Dunsmore is the only real receiving threat of the "superbacks". He is not a good blocker. He is a very good receiver though and he too can run after the catch. He runs a lot of seam routes but seems to be the one guy besides Brewer that Kafka actually looks for down the field. The rest of the Superbacks are basically blockers. They will catch a pass or two but they are outlets. Hunter is going to struggle in this game. He is a great run defender and he has improved his pass defense but this scheme isn't his forte. Edds on the other hand should shine here. He is probably faster than half of NU's wide outs. He can run with Brewer and Markshausen and will probably line up over one of them all of the time. He needs to get his hands on them often and try to disrupt their routes. Spievey also needs to press his man. If Iowa plays its regular base D he should be allowed to play a press and an inside technique and take away the slant when he is matched up on Brewer because it seems to be 33% of their offense. Prater continues to impress and he will need to play well again this week as he will be tested early and often. He must continue his very solid tackling and not get down on himself if three or four passes in a row are completed in front of him. That is the nature of both teams' scheme and he needs to understand that he isn't doing anything wrong as long as he makes the tackle. Willie Lowe has continued to improve his play as well and he is also doing a very good job on special teams. If Iowa plays Nickel he must tackle very well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Northwestern. I touched on this earlier but I will try to explian it here fully. This is the Nickel and Dime team that can move march the ball on Iowa's defense. It will be very frustrating to watch. When they complete 5 yard out after 5 yard out followed by a 8 yard slant, the grumbling in Kinnick will begin. This team takes what the defense gives them. They aren't going to play into Iowa's hands and try to force the ball downfield and they generally aren't sacked because the ball is out too soon. So Brewer and Markshausen will get there 8- 10 catches apiece for 75 to 80 yards. Iowa just has to prevent yards after the catch. The good thing is they don't have a running game and they don't have a reliable way to score inside the redzone. Against a defense with a pulse (read not Towson or Syracuse) the highest point total they have put up this season is 29 against Indiana. They are averaging 21.2 points a game in Big Ten play but scored only 14 vs. MSU and 13 vs. PSU.
9 Tyler Sash SS and FSs 30 Brett Greenwood/ 20 Joe Conklin Vs. QBs 13 Mike Kafka 6'3 215 SR/ 7 Dan Persa 6 1 200 SO: Kafka is very, very good. But he is hurt and even if he plays he will be severly limited. For basically a first year starter he has total command of this offense. He rarely throws the ball into coverage, he is deadly accurate inside of 20 yards- hitting his receiver in stride, and he gets the ball out very quickly. Before his injury I would have said he was the most mobile QB in the Big Ten and that includes Juice and Pryor. He isn't extremely fast but he moves well and finds a passing lane if his first option isn't open, when he decides to run he almost always makes the first defender miss and he is very physical. I don't think he will be doing too much running if he tries to play Saturday. He doesn't have elite arm strength and doesn't test it often. He rarely throws the ball outside the hashes beyond 20 yards and doesn't throw a pretty ball when pressured. Persa is more of a running QB at this point of his career. He is very fast. He probably keeps the ball more often than he should on the read option, and he doesn't stay with the pass as long as Kafka does, taking off with it after one or two reads. He also doesn't seem to have Kafka's shake. He also isn't nearly as accurate or decisive and could be turnover prone in the passing game. Against PSU I saw Persa throw only one ball farther than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Sash is possibly Iowa's most instinctive player. He flies to the ball faster than any safety since Sanders and he is looking to punish when he gets there. He is also a turnover machine. His TD return helped restore life to Kinnick last weekend and certainly sparked the comeback. He will certainly be All Big Ten this season. Conklin has been pretty steady stepping in for Greenwood, but he isn't quite as confident in his reads and is playing a little tentative. This will be a tough test for him if Greenwood can't go. By now I have learned that Iowa's Monday Depth Chart means nothing though.
Spud's Spin: Kafka plays hurt: Push; Persa starts: Edge Iowa. Kafka is smart enough not to force the ball against Iowa's defense and if he does at least he will do it on the short side of the field, i.e. away from Sash. Persa doesn't have the same poise or experience and he hasn't faced a secondary this talented or disciplined ever.
79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 99 Corey Wootton 6 7 265 LDE SR and 94 Vince Brown 6 5 270 RDE SR: Wootton seems fully recovered from his ACL tear he suffered in last season's Alamo Bowl. He has a very good first step and a good bull rush. He speed isn't all the way back but he made a very nice play on a zone blitz where he covered TB McCray for the Hoosiers with very little difficulty displaying very good athleticism. He plays the run very well and is very smart. Brown seems a little out of position. He is not explosive and doesn't seem to have a lot of pass rush ability. He isn't asked to contain often but shows good discipline when it is his role. He can be pushed around in the run game. He plays very high. Bulaga and Calloway are coming off of their best games imo. I think all of the sacks that were taken by Stanzi were on Stanzi and not he Oline's fault. I also think that Iowa pushed around very good DEs who are both probably NFL players.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. If Iowa chooses to run to the left side I think they will find a lot of success. Bulaga seems to have his feet back under him and Brown did nothing in three games worth of watching to make me take note of him. Brown is not much of a pass rush threat. Calloway has been solid all year and he has faced tougher competition this season. One potential match up to watch for is on third and long- #41 Quentin Davie lines up as the LDE and he has a lot of quickness. Against Wisconsin Calloway struggled when matched up one on one with a linebacker in a similar alignment.
77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs.DTs 98 Corbin Bryant 6 4 275 and 79 Adam Hahn 6 4 295: Bryant and Hahn are very solid in the run game. Bryant is pretty much a two down type of player. He isn't on the field on third and long. He is very strong and anchors against the run very well. He likes to jump the snap and he has a decent first step. Hahn really uses his hands well and is the more likely of the two to end up in the backfield. He also likes to guess the snap count. He stays on the field in passing situations. He really plays low and can get a good push. He also pursues down the line well. Reiff, Eubanks and Vandy are coming off of their best game as a unit by far. I thought Eubanks was great on running plays and was starting to really flash his athleticism. He still looks to be caught blocking no one too often in pass protection and can't afford to do that this week as NU rarely rushes 4. Vandy had some struggles but was dominating people in the fourth quarter. He and Reiff have some tough assignments this week. This will be on par with the talent they faced against MSU.
Spud's Spin: Edge Northwestern. I just don't know if Reiff has the physical strength to block Hahn consistently enough yet. And I am not sure if this unit has figured out blitz pickup yet. They better 'cause it is coming this week. From every angle you can imagine. If I am wrong about this you can rest easy Saturday.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 32 David Arnold 6 1 220 SLB SO and 17 FS Brad Phillips 6 4 210 SR: Arnold is listed as the starter but #35 Ben Johnson has played some at this position also. They are basically the same player. Converted safeties playing linebackers. They are pretty fast and comfortable in space. They get good depth on their zones and line up over the slot when teams use 3 wide receivers. They take bad angles and overpursue in the run game and while blitzing. They are undersized and are decimated if they are met by lineman in the second level. Phillips is a very good player. He is pretty fast and diagnoses plays quickly. He doesn't take a lot of false steps and doesn't seem to get caught up in traffic. He is a sure tackler. He is usually the safety inthe box and plays the nickel corner. He is comfortable playing a slot receiver in man coverage. He is the quarterback of the defense. Moeaki had a relatively quiet game but he was kept in to block on a lot of passing plays and was double covered by Indiana and used as a decoy on several other plays. He did and excellent job blocking.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Northwestern plays a lot of zone looks so it will be rare for anyone to be matched up one on one with Tony, but if they are and it is a linebacker Iowa needs to have an Audible put in for this situation. If it is Davie or Arnold or Johnson they can't cover him and if he is bracketed that means single coverage from some very vulnerable corners on our talented WRs. Moeaki is bigger than all of their linebackers and probably more athletic than Wootton also. I don't think their is anyone on their defense he couldn't block besides the two DTs.
82 Allen Reisner TE/H and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 41 Quention Davie 6 4 225 WLB JR: Davie is a leader for this team. He is a good downhill linebacker who can work through traffic and make tackles. He is also an effective blitzer. He is very stiff in coverage and doesn't get good depth. He has good straight- line speed but his lateral quickness and make up speed are average. Reisner and Morse will likely be blocking him or the weakside De in zone running plays and they should have a strength and possibly an athletic advantage. Both of these guys are capable receivers but they have been overlooked since early in the season.
Spud's Spin: Push. I would like to give the edge to Iowa but that would require these guys being involved in the passing game. They haven't been for at least three weeks. They can block Davie, but he will win his fair share in the runing game, that is what he is good at and he is a very good instinctual player. Stanzi needs to look for his outlet a few times in this game if he has time on playaction.
WRs 15 DJK, 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. CBs 24 Sherrick McManis 6 1 190 SR, 26 Jordan Mabin 5 11 180 SO, 47 Ricky Wiena 5 11 180 SO, and Demetrius Dugar 5 11 165 R.FR: McManis has been banged up and if he can't go Ricky Wiena is someone the Hawks should look to exploit. PSU took advantage of him most of the game. He is a gamer and is trying hard out their but he just doesn't have the ability to cover D1 wide outs right now. He really struggles with his tackling and gives such a cushion that he puts himself in poor position to make a tackle after giving up a catch. Mabin on the other side isn't real aggressive but he has some decent athleticism but he doesn't seem to be really interested in supporting the run. He can be shielded from the ball by bigger receivers. Dugar is not a physical player. He did show some nice closing speed. DJK had another microcosm type of game. He ran terrific routes and then kind of left his QB hanging with some attitude. He then showed the kind of athleticism and instincts that make you wonder if he isn't a Sunday player on his 66 yard score. Stross had a relatively quiet game but ran some really sharp routes including a very nice comeback for a catch. I also thought he blocked very well. McNutt showed off some speed I wasn't 100% sure he possessed. He also had a couple of nice broken tackles on the P/A read option plays. Davis had one memorable play that wasn't even his fault. I also saw him run some decent routes and thought he might already get off of press coverage the best out of all of Iowa's receivers.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Even with McManis in this goes to Iowa. This unit is really building some momentum late in the year and it started with their run blocking imo. With them showing Ricky what they can do with the ball on target in film sessions this week I would look for less long throws in the gameplan this week and for more outs and slants. One broken tackle or coverage and these guys have proven now that they can make you pay.
3 Brandon Wegher and 25 Paki O'Meara Vs. 57 Nate Williams 6 2 225: Williams doesn't make as many plays as you would expect the MLB playing for Pat Fitzgerald to make. He doesn't shed blockers very well and he over pursues a lot on running plays. He is decimated by O-lineman. He is also very vulnerable to playaction and doesn't get great depth on his zones. He does have pretty good speed for a LB but it is pretty much straight ahead. His lateral speed leaves something to be desired. He is a sure tackler. He reminds me of Jesse Smith from ISU except he doesn't have Smith's instincts. He is a try hard guy. Wegher had a great day against Indiana and was possibly underutlized early in the game. Iowa didn't really use him at all in the passing game which was a shame because Indiana didn't have anyone who could cover him. Neither do the Wildcats. I don't think Iowa needs to be coy about anything. The rest of their opponents have pleny of gamefilm of Iowa. I think they probably know that Iowa has used Wegher in the slot before. It is okay to keep doing it. I thought Paki did an alright job. He had a very nice 3rd and 14 conversion and held on to the ball when giving Wegher a blow. That is more than most were expecting and I think he will get more opportunities this weekend.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. NU is vulnerable to the big play and Iowa fans have been waiting all season for Wegher to bust a long one. I have been predicting him to get one every week so I might as well continue so I will be right when it happens. Screen pass to Wegher for a 60 yard plus TD. If Iowa can block the DTs and get a big body on either Williams or Davie this will be a long day for the Wildcats. If Iowa can establish the run early and they don't have to rely on Stanzi then you can put away your balm of choice.
12 Ricky Stanzi QB Vs. 4 Brendan Smith 6 1 210 SS SR: Smith is a very solid player. He is a sure tackler and he diagnoses plays well. He rarely takes a false step and has pretty decent make up speed. He is also injury prone. He has to be salivating after watching tape of the Indiana game last week. His backup #10 Brian Peters is a pretty decent player and comes in on Nickel situations. I have confidence in Stanzi. I think he is going to improve and I think last week was a little flukish. But he makes some poor decisions and he is NU's best chance to stay in this game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I was so close to giving this to the 'Cats. But I klooking at Stanzi's past history and he just rarely has two bad games in a row. I think that alot of time was spent this week in Fort Kinnick discussing some of his and the Offensive Coaching Staffs' Flaws. At least I hope so. Smith basically plays center field for the 'Cats. As long as he doesn't catch any fly balls it will be a good day.
some terrible predictions:
1. Brett Morse will rush for 50 yards.
2. Marvin McNutt will complete a pass to Trey Stross for 12 yards on a reverse pass. You will be wondering," Why an out pattern on a Reverse Pass?"
3. In an effort to garner Mass Media approval and remind them of his Belicheckian heritage A.J. Edds will catch a TD Pass a la MikeVrabel formerly of the Pats and currently of the Chefs (no misprint)
4. Iowa will not return a punt all day.
5. Iowa will score on their opening drive and lead the entire game.
Spud's Spin: If I were Pat Fitzgerald I would line up 8 in the box and not vary my defensive formation. I would instruct my players to never tip my blitz even if it meant a guy is a hair late. I would blitz on every down the first three drives but never the same blitz twice. What I mean by that is one time a safety with zone coverage behind it. The next time the Sam with man and two deep safeties. The next time bring seven, etc. The important thing is that you show the same front every time and never tip where it is coming from. Iowa's offensive line and Stanzi have been poor at recognizing the blitz. When they have picked it up they have beaten it for big plays but those have been few and far between this season. The fourth drive I would rush four and only play coverage behind it with the same formation. After this I would play my regular defense and see how Iowa adjusts. If they begin to have success I would go back to my first strategy (assuming it was successful). And the two players I make sure I cover are Moeaki and Wegher because I would suspect that is the adjustment Iowa would make.
If Kafka is healthy this is going to be a scary game for Iowa because he was really begining to play his best football of the year. If he is healthy enough to play it will still be difficult, it will be like playing Purdue with Curtis Painter. He almost rallied them back from a significant deficit last season in Kinnick and they ran similar offenses. Kafka has two receivers he has incredible chemistry with. If Persa plays I will not be too worried. This defense is to good to surrender more than 17 points since they won't allow 20 points in back to back games. NU is just to beat up to put up a fight for more than a half.
Final Score: Iowa 45 Northwestern 17
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