Matchups Vs. Penn State

This is going to be a pretty elaborate and probably overdone post.  I know I have been told to make these smaller but it just isn't my style.  Anyway I am basically breaking the game down position by position and giving a prediction at the end.  I wrote this earlier in the week and some injury news has changed the complexion of some of these matchups so I am adjusting on the fly.  Here we go.

Richardson 78, Eubanks 52, Vandervelde 63 ( Gettis 73) vs Odrick 91, Ogbu 85, Still 71 : This may be the key to the entire offense for the Hawks.  If PSU can shut down the running game and pressure Stanzi from the inside- game over.  This will be Richardson's, Eubanks', and Vandervelde's third game in a row together.  They mujst get a push on these big and explosive tackles for Iowa's run game to be effective.  They must also handle them in one on one situations and pick up inside blitzers because right now it seems like Stanzi is easily rattled by early pressure.  Odrick is more of a "3 technique" tackle meaning he lines up over a guard and looks to disrupt and create pressure.  He will belong to one guard in pass protection.  He must be handled.  Ogbu is more of a Nose and could be doubled initially. Odrick is clearly the higher priority but both must be accounted for.  Still is a big guy (6'5 305) but still learing his trade and is more of a space eater at this point in his career.

Bulaga 79/ Reiff 77, Calloway 60 vs Crawford 81, Lattimore 56, Hayes 5 : First I am pretty sure that Bulaga isn't playing.  Reiff has done a very nice job of filling in and probably has an easier match up this week.  But that wasn't with 110k crazed fans making it impossible to hear audibles and really need your silent count.  Bulaga has been there.  Reiff will be matched up with Crawford who is PSU's second most physically gifted defensive lineman.  His stats are nothing to write home about especially given the level of competition that PSU has played.  He is a big (6'5 262), rangy athlete who can be explosive off the edge.  He will only be starting his fourth game however.  Calloway will be matched up with Lattimore and Hayes who he should be able to dominate in the run game.  Calloway is fighting a lingering knee injury and he has had a little trouble with defending speed moves.  Lattimore is much more threatening in that capacity.

Spud's Spin: I think that Iowa's offensive line could actually wear down Penn State's d-line if Iowa can establish the run.  I also think that PSU will have to blitz to get pressure on Stanzi, I don't think PSU's front four can consistently beat Iowa's pass protection. Edge Iowa.

Moeaki 81 vs. Bowman 11, Gbadyu 15 : Moeaki isn't sure to start and not even sure to play.  Neither is Bowman.  That is really too bad for us fans.  Moeaki is a crushing blocker and rarely misses an assignment.  As well as Reisner played in the passing game last week, it is easy to see that Moeaki is Stanzi's security blanket.  Herman needs time to grow into Tony's shoes in the two tight end sets and isn't yet a match for Bowman. Bowman is everything you would desire in a strongside linebacker.  He is fast, agile, instinctive and a punishing tackler.  He is comfortable in space and a playmaker- he causes turnovers.  If he isn't sufficiently recovered from his groin pull to go or the track is to sloppy to risk re-injuring it Gbadyu is probably going to be his replacement. Gdabyu does have some starting experience but he isn't close to the athlete that Bowman is. PSU is really hurting at linebacker.

Morse 36, Reisner 82 (Herman 39) vs. Hull 45 (Mlb), Lee 45 (wlb) (Stupar 34) (Colasanti 48): I really don't know who is going to man the weakside for PSU.  I think I know Hull is going to play mike.  If Lee can't go and Stupar can't go I have no idea I just threw Colasanti out there because he has experience.  the Penn State message boards' hate him but that usually means nothing.  Lee is outstanding, an All-American candidate when healthy.  This week he was supposed to be able to move back to his more natural weak side position with the return of Bowman, but he suffered a knee sprain against Temple.  It is tough to replace a player of his caliber.  I don't think that Morse has missed an assignment this season.  He has also really flashed as receiver.  Reisner played very well against Arizona, especially in the passing game, but he isn't the dominating run blocker that Morse or Moeaki are.  Herman is steadily improving his game and really impressed me with his blocking in the second half of the Arizona game.  I am not sure a pass has even been thrown his way yet this season.

Spud's spin:  I think that Iowa might have the edge here also given the overall health of Penn State's unit.  If both Lee and Bowman were 100% this would be a no doubter.  Even without Moeaki I give the edge to Iowa.

DJK 15, McNutt 7, Stross 86, Chaney 26, Sandeman 22, Davis 6 vs. Timmons 4, Lynn 8, Wallace 1 : Lynn is a sophmore but he has beaten out all everything recruit A.J. Wallace who hasn't seen the field as much as you might think.  Timmons is a speedster but he is also short on experience.  This could be a very big edge for Iowa, especially given the secondary they just faced in Arizona.  The Wildcat's were certainly more physical and possibly faster, and definately more experienced.  Penn State tends to play alot of zone coverages but these guys all have the ability to play man.  If PSU does play man Iowa must attack and execute with double moves.  If Stanzi has time he must take shots downfield and make these guys beat him.
Spud's Spin:  Iowa's biggest advantage may be the sheer numbers of players that they can throw at PSU.  Even if DJK can't go Iowa has at least 5 solid options to try and wear out three corners and we all know Iowa receivers block or they don't play.  Iowa needs to have Zero dropped passes out of this unit.

Stanzi 12, Robinson 32, Wegher 3 vs. Astorino 28, Sukay 14 : Stanzi must play his best game of the season so far.  He needs to understand what PSU is trying to do and the easiest way to do that is by seeing where PSU's safties line up. Robinson and Wegher are only going to have a few opportunities to make big plays and when they happen it will come down to winning a physical battle with one of these safeties in space.  Astorino and Sukay are heady players but I am not sure they are intimidating in any way.  Arizona's safeties were much better in coverage while I would give PSU's the edge in run support.  These two won't miss a lot of tackles and they generally know where they are supposed to be on the field.  I just wonder if they won't be trying to do to much with all of the injuries to the linebacking corps.
Spud's Spin: If Iowa gets "2nd half Ricky" for the whole game this edge goes to Iowa.  If Astorino and Sukay trust there players and play their scheme I give the edge to PSU.  The wildcard is the play of two freshman Tbs.  I think one of them will come up huge so I give the edge to Iowa.

Clayborn 94, Binns 91 vs. Landolt 73 Lt, Pannell 50 Rt : Landolt has moved from right tackle to left and is more of a mauler than a technician.  He doesn't have the feet to keep Clayborn off of Clark's back in the passing game and will require help.  In the run game it is important for Clayborn to set the edge and hold his contain responsibilities as PSU has a ton of weapons and attack the edge in a variety of ways.  Pannell has been the best of the replacements for PSU.  He is a very good run blocker and hasn't really been tested yet in the passing game.  Binns has been solid to spectacular.  He is a natural pass rusher and has done a very good job of holding his discipline on his contain responsibilities.  He is capable of physically winning this match up.
Spud's spin: No matter how well Pannell plays I don't think that Landolt can match up with Clayborn.  I also think Binns is capable of having an excellent performance in this game.  As much as Iowa runs twists these two must be salivating when they watch film of PSU's guard play.  Edge Iowa

Ballard 46, Klug 95 (Daniels 93) vs. Troutman 74, Wisniewski 61, Eliades77 (Stankiewitch 54): Penn State's interior has been much maligned against inferior competition.  Last week their running game seemed to get on track with the insertion of Johnnie Troutman at Left Guard.  He was credited with being a little more physical and nasty than red shirt freshman Stankiewitch.  Penn State runs a lot of man vs man blocking schemes and does a lot of pulling and down blocking.  This should give both Klug and Ballard opportunities to get into the backfield and be disruptive.  They must make plays when they get there not just flash and make Royster or Green make a move.  Wisniewski is a very good player but is making line calls for the first time in his college career. 
Spud's Spin: I have already said that I think that this season's D-line is better than last season's and this game will either show why or make me look like a fool.  I think that Ballard and Klug could dominate this game.  King lived in PSU's backfield last season and that was against a talented veteran O-line. I think the Hawks physicality will suprise and wear down PSU oline and kill their will.

Angerer 43 vs Royster 22, Green 21: This is mostly for the run game.  If the D-line keeps Angerer clean this could be the kind of game where Angerer collects 15-20 tackle as he can really move sideline to sideline.  Royster and Green also really work the middle of the field in the passing game which is where Angerer patrols.  Royster is easlily the best TB in the Big XI.  He is patient, intelligent, has good hands, he is slippery and he has a better burst than people give him credit for.  Green is pretty much just a speed guy right now.  He needs some more time to develop better vision.  He is a big play waiting to happen in space though.
Spud's Spin: I give the edge to PSU here as much as I respect Angerer.  Royster is tough for any one to bring down one on one and I think it is possible that PSU can scheme to make this happen.  What I am afraid of is where these match ups will happen at the LOS or 4-5 past it.

Hunter 42 vs. Quarless 10, Shuler 82: Generally your strongside Lb lines up over the TE but I expect a lot of three wide from Penn State so that means Edds over the slot.  Hunter can dominate Quarless in the run game.  Quarless is an assett in the passing game but he is not explosive in his stance and not a physical player.  He is more of a get in your way kind of run blocker.  Quarless can get down the seam in a hurry, once he gets moving he gets to full speed quickly.  He reminds me of Scott Chandler only with lesser hands.  Mickey Shuler is a better blocker and not quite the athlete that Quarless is but he seems to always be open and catch whatever passes are thrown his way.
Spud's Spin: Hunter is much more physically gifted than either one of these players.  He can cover them and I don't think either one of them can consistently block him.  Big Edge Iowa.

Edds 49, Spievey 19, Prater 28, Lowe 10 vs. Zug 5, Moye 6, Powell 2, Brackett 83, Smith 20: Zug may be hurt but Powell and Moye have impressed me more so far anyway.  Anyone of the three line up in the slot.  PSU uses alot of bunch formations.  Edds must be able to sift through traffic and cover the flat if Iowa is in cover 3.  He must also set the edge in the run game if they are running to the outside in that formation.  PSU would be stupid to test Spievey so Prater should expect to be busy.  Both Prater and Lowe have been impressive so far but this will be their toughest test easily this early season.  Powell really scares me.
Spud's Spin: I give the nod to PSU here because I think they run the same basic scheme's as Iowa and should have a decent idea of how to exploit them.  If they have done their homework and avoid Spievey long day for Iowa.  Edge PSU

Sash 9, Greenwood 30 vs. Clark 17 : How patient will Clark be?  Is he going to try to win last years game this season? Clark is the best qb in the Big XI no doubt.  But he doesn't have last season's o-line or wr group and Iowa's secondary is much improved.  Both Sash and Greenwood are much better than they were last season and they are able to concentrate much more on their pass responsiblities now.  Clark and Greenwood have started the same number of games.
Spud's Spin: I will give the nod to Clark but not by as much as you might think.  If the weather is really as crappy as forecasted and Clark is running for his life I expect "The Vulture" to feed at least once and for Clark to avoid the middle of the field and try to win the game with his legs.  He is capable of doing that.

Some Terrible Predictions:
1. Iowa has come out throwing the ball.  Not Saturday night.  I think they line up in I formation with the tight end on the left side and run zones to the weak (Calloway's side) early and often.  Even if Bowman and Lee are on the field I think this is what you will see.
2. The return of the Bubble Screen- probably with Chaney or McNutt as the targets.  Possibly run as many as 4 times.
3. Iowa will not play alot of Nickel or Dime formations defensively.  The weakness of PSU's Oline will allow Iowa to pressure Clark with their front four alone and play coverage with the back seven.
4. If either team takes a lead of 15+ the game is over.  Neither team has an explosive enough offensive to overcome the defense they are facing this week.  I don't care if this happens 5 minutes into the first quarter.
5. Tyler Sash will pick off a pass and return it at least 30 yards and have it negated by a personal foul when someone blocks Clark.

What has to happen for Iowa to win:
Iowa must control both lines of scrimmage.  Stanzi can't turn the ball over in the first 2 possessions.  Reiff and Calloway cannot leave the game.  Iowa cannot drop passes on third down.  Iowa's offensive line cannot be called for more than three penalties.  Iowa's specail teams cannot give up any momentum building plays.  Iowa must start out strong- 110k wet drunk people turn either bitter or silent after about a 1/2 hour.  Mistake free boring football can accomplish this. Iowa must score more points than Penn State.
Spud's Spin: Hawks 27 Lions 9 and we move up to 26 in the AP poll.