Georgia Tech is not a good defensive football team. They are not good versus the run or the pass. If Iowa doesn't score versus this team something is seriously wrong and the calls for O'keefe will be long and bitter. Tech has some very good players including Derrick Morgan who is coping with his demotion from the head job oh wait wrong Derrick Morgan. This Derrick Morgan chases QBs not serial killers. Tech's Morgan is probably the most talented DE I have seen all year and he makes O'brien Scholfield look slow. Strong Safety Morgan Burnett is a speedy and smart player but he is not given a lot of help by his teammates in the secondary. Sedric Griffin the SLB is a talented athlete and is all over the field but most of his plays are made 7 or 8 yards on the wrong end of the line of scrimmage.
The Yellow Jackets play a base 4-3 defense. Against Clemson in the Acc championship game they showed a 3-4 look but in the second half they abandoned it. They play a lot of single safety coverage with the corners and the other safety playing man coverage. They blitz both OLBs a lot. Griffin is a decent blitzer but the WLB Sylvester is not. Other than Morgan no one on the D-line provides much pressure. When they play zone coverages they favor cover 3 with Burnett usually playing Centerfield. They have some exotic zone blitzes but they are not executed very well and usually led to big plays for the other team. Even when they brought 7 or 8 men to pressure they rarely got to the QB. Morgan is the only player who reliably created pressure. If the LBs move late that probably means a blitz. This team over pursues a lot. They are very vulnerable to cut back runs and playaction passing. They are speedy but that can be used against them because they are constantly out of position. Their DTs do not get a good push against the run so they are forced to try to stunt and blitz linebackers to stop the run. That in turn exposes their secondary to a lot of man coverage. They are a very aggressive team and they take a lot of chances on defense.
On 3rd downs they played mostly Dime packages and played mostly man coverages. They rarely blitzed. They usually just brought 4 or 3 depending on the front. They usually had one LB in Zone and one Safety in Zone. They weren't very effective stopping either the pass or the run on third downs. They also didn't force a lot of third downs on the games I watched. They gave up a lot of big runs to Clemson and Georgia. They play a lot of players on defense. They aren't afraid to sub players at any position. The only players who don't seem to leave the field are MLB Brad Jefferson and SS Morgan Burnett.
The Matchups:
79 LT Bryan Bulaga and 77 RT Riley Reiff Vs DEs 91 Derrick Morgan 6 4 272 JR, 41 Anthony Egbuniwe 6 4 255 JR, and 94 Izaan Cross 6 4 272 FR: Morgan is the best end the Hawks' will have faced this season. He reminds me of a taller Dwight Freeney. He has an incredible first step. Very long arms and he uses them well, he can beat double teams with power or speed. He has a great inside move and often wins with just speed. His biggest weakness is a tendency to over pursue. He can run himself out of plays- especially taking an outside rush on passing plays. Egbuniwe
is not explosive off the line. He can be swallowed up by tackles. He is not natural on twists or stunts. He plays high and can be pushed around by tight ends. Morgan and Egbuniwe play on either side. Cross plays a lot and subs for either player. He seems to play on the dime package. He is a very strong player. He isn't a natural rusher on twists. He doesn't possess a very good closing burst. He could grow into a DT. Very good size. I tend to buy the Morehouse report that Calloway will play guard in this game and Reiff will play Tackle. Reiff is a more natural tackle and has the better feet to deal with Morgan. Calloway has struggled with speed rushers and Reiff has struggled with huge tackles and Tech has one in T.J. Barnes. This game could determine If Bulaga will turn pro or come back for his senior campaign. If he were to dominate Morgan it would quiet a lot of doubters as Morgan is a better player than either Scholfield or Brandon Graham.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- I think that Bulaga and Reiff are capable of protecting Stanzi in this game. I am sure they can dominate in the running game. Tech has stopped a few teams from running the ball including North Carolina but Iowa has a much better Oline and this game could mean a ton to Bulaga's pro future whether he is going pro now or next season. Georgia and Clemson ran all over the Jackets mostly by running away from Morgan. I expect Iowa to try the same thing.
78 G Dace Richardson, 60 G/T Kyle Calloway, 52 C Rafael Eubanks, and 63 Julian Vandervelde Vs. DTs 90 T.J. Barnes 6 7 341 R.FR, 96 Logan Walls 6 2 286 SO, and 92 Jason Peters 6 4 273 SO: Barnes and Walls start. Peters doesn't see the field often. Walls is constantly on the ground. He does get off the ball quickly but he doesn't play with a lot of awareness. He rarely makes a play on the ball and can be easily redirected. He plays very hard. I didn't realize Barnes was so big. He is pushed around constantly. He also rarely makes a play on the ball. He rarely gets a good push and plays very high. He is constantly pushed around by guards and centers. Peters comes in on some of the dime packages. He rarely showed me anything to write about. No notes. Ben Anderson was the starter and they really miss him. He had a high motor and was constantly around the ball. It is a shame he got hurt. Hopefully he will be healthy for next season. If Iowa starts a line that features Richardson at LG and Calloway at RG I would expect a heavy dose of middle zone running plays. Iowa would tend to have the physical advantage and that seems to be where Tech is most vulnerable. I realize that Iowa doesn't have a C.J. Spiller but seven or eight yard chunks will be plenty effective enough for Iowa.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- I don't think it matters what combination the line comes out in. This unit for Tech hasn't produced for most of the season. They play much smaller than their size and rarely make plays. Eubanks, Richardson, Vandervelde, Reiff, Calloway or whoever even Gettis or Keumpal should be albe to dominate Tech's interior.
81 TE Tony Moeaki Vs 54 SLB Sedric Griffin 5 11 225 SR: Griffin is a solid tackler, he has good pursuit speed, but he makes most of his plays way downfield. He over pursues the play way to often and has bad balance. He is often blown off the ball by Tight Ends. He is a pretty good zone defender. He gets good depth in his zone drops. He takes good angles to the ball carrier. He is not a great blitzer and doesn't always blitz with great speed. Moeaki may be the best Tight End of the Ferentz era. He certainly is the best blocker. He should be matched up with Griffin for most of the night as Griffin almost always lines up over the TE regardless of the side of the field(wide or short) he lined up on.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- Griffin is a pretty good player and definitely Tech's best LB but Moeaki is the better player. I am not sure if Griffin can defeat him consistently in the running game and if he is asked to cover him without help Moeaki could have a career game catching the ball. With as much man coverage as Tech plays I expect Moeaki to have a busy night.
36 FB Brett Morse and 82 TE Allen Reisner Vs. 34 WLB Steven Sylvester 6 2 233 SO: Sylvester is on the field in almost all of their packages but I rarely saw him make a tackle. He is often assigned to blitz the QB on the waggle and that could present some problems for Iowa's playaction game. He is not a very instinctive blitzer though and I rarely saw him make a play while blitzing. He does look good in zone coverage but they just don't play zone that often. He looks lost playing the run, over pursuing often and falling off of ball carriers. He looks like a great athlete, I just rarely saw him do anything positive. Morse and Reisner need to have active nights. They need to execute their assignments and if they are matched up with Sylvester take advantage of his aggressiveness. He can be blocked completely out of plays. If he takes himself out of the play they need to let him and block somebody else. If Morse is assigned the MLB he needs to own him. If he isn't involved early he seems to disappear from games. It would be nice to see these guys involved in the passing game again. With Stanzi returning that may happen.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- for most of the season these two players for Iowa have been very assignment sound. They need to continue that against Tech. Sylvester has a lot of potential he just hasn't put it all together on the field yet. I think in time he will be a good player for them. He may be playing out of position at Will and could take over for Griffin at SLB next season.
WRs 15 Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 22 Colin Sandeman, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. CBs 2 Mario Butler 6 1 182, 37 Jerrard Tarrant 6 0 202, and 28 Rashaad Ried 5 10 185: Bulter is the best player of this group. He always seems to be around the ball and is solid in run support. He is the best tackler of the bunch but that isn't saying much. He plays the deep ball pretty well. He is very vulnerable to double moves. They are all asked to do a lot. They constantly play man coverage with little safety help. He is pretty physical. He has pretty good recovery speed. Tarrant seems to get picked on a lot. He seems a step slow on crossing passes. He shows some good closing speed. Gets burned a lot on double moves. Had a very nice Interception return vs. Clemson and is their punt returner. Pretty athletic. Good change of direction ability, not a good tackler. Reid shows flashes of potential. Very good closing speed. Recognizes routes quickly. Comfortable in trail coverage. Not a good tackler. DJK has had another solid season. McNutt may be the most explosive Red Zone weapon Iowa has ever had. Stross has had a very good senior year with the exception of the "one " game. Sandeman has been fairly reliable too and an excellent blocker all season. Davis' future looks very bright. Iowa hasn't been this loaded at this position ever.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- If Stanzi is on and throwing to the right team I could see either DJK or McNutt having a multiple TD 100 yard type of performance. This team has to gamble to stop the run and is consequently very vulnerable to deep playaction passes. I am not sure that Tech will respect the athleticism Iowa has at this position early in the game. They may have to let Iowa run past them a few times before they realize Iowa's receivers can run too.
TBs 32 Adam Robinson and 3 Brandon Wegher Vs. 51 MLB Brad Jefferson 6 2 237 JR: Jefferson is the leading tackler for the Jackets but I rarely saw him make a play vs. Georgia or Clemson. He doesn't get through traffic and doesn't always diagnose well. He can really be fooled by misdirection. Like the rest of his teammates he is really guilty of over pursuing and really gets himself out of position. If he gets to the ball he generally makes the tackle. He is very aggressive and wants to play downhill and is very vulnerable to playaction passes. He doesn't always get great zone drops and seems uncomfortable in pass coverage. He looks lost covering backs out of the backfield. He is a little stiff but has pretty good speed and initial burst. Robinson could have a field day versus this defense. He is the runner who seems to know how to set up his hole and to cut against the grain and that is what this defense is very vulnerable too. If you get them flowing one way and cut upfield you can hurt them for big gains. Wegher may have the better speed and athleticism but he hasn't seemed to grasp the patience to let his blocks develop. One of these guys is going to end up with 100 yards but I have been wrong all season about which one.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- In this game all signs point to Robinson having a big day so I will predict it is Wegher who goes off. I think that Jefferson is a decent player but he just gets himself out of position to often. If Robinson and Wegher can take advantage of that early that would be very nice for the Hawks.
12 QB Ricky Stanzi Vs. 1 SS Morgan Burnett 6 1 210 JR and 33 Mario Edwards 6 1 216 JR: Burnett is a pro. He is very good in man coverage and does a nice job of reading routes. He recognizes run/pass well and has good speed. He gets involved in a lot of plays. He is a good tackler. He takes good angles and has a good closing burst. He is very comfortable playing centerfield and does a nice job of reading route combos and the QB. Edwards struggles in man coverage vs. the slot receiver. He is a pretty good tackler in run support. He seems to be more comfortable in zone coverage but Tech doesn't play a ton of that coverage. He is quick to read his keys and doesn't often make a mistake. I rarely saw him get burned or be the player responsible for a blown coverage. Stanzi will be playing his first game in over two months. He is supposed to be 100% healthy. He can't help but be rusty. He needs to be on top of his game because Iowa needs to put up points on the board nearly every time they possess the ball. He can't afford to throw the ball to the other team. Tech doesn't really try to disguise what they are doing so Stanzi needs to be given time to audible. He needs to read the D and get into the correct play or at least out of bad ones. If he is on his game mentally he shouldn't have to carry the team. Iowa should be able to run the ball at will vs. this team. Anything they get in the passing game should be a bonus.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Tech- I think it is too much to ask Stanzi to come in and play lights out. I think he can come in and complete 50% of his passes and not turn the ball over and that would be a successful outing. What is important is that he have a turnover free game. He needs to get Iowa into good plays and keep the ball away from Nesbitt, Dwyer and company. If he can keep Iowa's D rested and put points on the scoreboard and keep the ball out of Burnett's hands and Morgan off of his back it will be a good night for the Hawkeyes.
Some terrible predictions:
- Moeaki goes out with 8 catches 112 yards and 2 TDs
- Both Robinson and Wegher rush for over 100 yards
- Hunter finishes with 20 tackles and a FF. Player of the Game.
- Anthony Allen leads Tech with 109 yards with 65 coming on a beautiful counter.
- Tyler Sash gets 3 interceptions in a game again. He scores the last TD of the game.
I think that it is very possible for Iowa to score every time they have the ball versus this team. Iowa's line will be as healthy as they have been all season. Players like DJK, Robinson, Wegher, Moeaki, and others will be as healthy as they have been all season. Georgia Tech is a very aggressive team but their speed can be used against them. The team they remind me of the most is Michigan. Iowa put up a lot of points and yards against Michigan. Scheme wise they are kind of similar to Michigan. They fool around a little with a 3-4 look. They are pretty undisciplined. They have one very fierce pass rusher, and one very good secondary player. Moeaki had a big day versus Michigan and I think he could have a big bowl game. I also think the Hawks are going to be able to run the ball. It will be important for the Hawk's to possess the ball or at least put points on the board because Georgia Tech is going to score some points.
Spud's Spin: I think the Hawks will come out opposite of what they had been doing with Stanzi at the helm which was passing to set up the run. I think they will pound the ball. I think that Robinson and Wegher may not alternate series but possibly plays because Iowa is going to try to run so much. I think Iowa may feature a lot of I formation with two tight ends and try to wear out this defense early. I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa run right at Morgan to try to see if he can be worn down. I ultimately see this stategy succeeding. Eventually I think Iowa's D will figure out the Flexbone and the D-line will take over the game. I also think that the O-line for Iowa will dominate this game. Physical football never goes out of style and this is the most physical Iowa team in quite a while. This is a deep O-line and I think that they can wear down Tech's defense by early in the 3rd quarter. Close game until the 4th Iowa 38 Georgia Tech 24.
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