Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Bradley Fletcher Draft Update

Fletcher had a really good combine, possibly the best of all of the Hawkeyes from a pure numbers and expectations standpoint. He ran a 4.47 40 yard dash(2.63 20yd split; 1.47 10yd split) which was good enough for the top ten for the conerback position. He posted a 38.5 vertical leap, 10' 2" broad jump, and a 7.1 second 3 cone drill. These were all very good numbers for his position and comparable for the elite prospects in this years draft. What I wasn't able to see were his perfomances in the position drills. I think that this will be key for his draft stock. Right now he is viewed in some circles as a "zone" or cover 2 corner. The postional drills are used to evaluate a prospects man cover skills. Iowa's scheme generally don't highlight man skills so Bradley doesn't have a ton of film for scouts to grade him on those kinds of abilities. The other aspects of the combine that I don't know about are which teams showed interest in Bradley- i.e. who interviewed him. I expect that Fletcher passed the medical evaluations easily as I don't recall him suffering signifcant injuries during his time at Iowa.

One trend that could impact Fletcher is the phase out of the Tampa 2 defense. Right now I can think of only 5 teams that are really running it. Buffalo, Chicago, Indy, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay are really the only teams that are still running the Tampa 2 as a primary scheme. Denver, Green Bay, and Kansas City are abandoning the scheme for either hybrid or full time 3-4 defenses which leaves only 19 teams running 4-3 defenses. With the success of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami and even Arizona you could see even fewer teams running 4-3 defenses. It seems easier for teams to find linebackers than defensive lineman right now and easier for teams to convert defensive ends into outside linebackers than the other way around. This indirectly effects Fletcher in how teams view him- can he play man? Can he play Free Safety? I personally think he can play any scheme. I am not sure if he is as gifted as Charles Godfrey(last year's 3rd round selection for the Carolina Panthers) but I do think he compares physically to him. He just doesn't have the safety experience that Godfrey had in college. I also think that Fletcher can come in and make a difference on special teams from day one.

Some of the teams that make sense to me are Chicago, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. The team I see actually taking him is the Bears in the fourth round. The reason I predict the Bears is the possibility of Fletcher playing either corner or safety, and the starting corner tandem of Tillman and Vasher beginning to get long in the tooth.

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