Iowa's season continues to look rosy, even after last week's scare. The funny thing about roses though, they come with thorns, and no team has been a bigger thorn in Iowa's side than Northwestern. NU has won 7 of the last 12 meetings and the last two at Iowa. I almost demolished my house after the 2005 fiasco and actually broke some of my wife's lawn decorations. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of that this season. Last season Iowa had a comfortable 17- 3 margin heading into the half when Andy Brodell fumbled a punt return. NU scored a TD with 0:17 left in the first half to gain momentum on their way to a 22 to 17 win. This is the infamous 1rst and goal from the 8 game where the playcalls are still intensely debated. I don't want to spark one here I would just like to point out that Iowa dominated this game for the most part statistically except for two key things -the final score and the turnover margin.
Offensively Northwestern returns just 4 starters from last season, but this late in the year that doesn't really matter. They are a pass first spread team that compares alot to Iowa State. NU uses the same "check with me" style of OC call from the sideline for audibles and they like to vary their tempo from snap to snap. They are almost exclusively shotgun. They run a lot of empty backfield sets usually with "trips" to the wide side of the field. They occasionally run a "bunch" formation similar to the one that Indy ran. They also feature a "trips" formation to the wideside with their "superback" (TE) lining up on the line of scrimmage as a regular tight end. When they line up 4 wide and send #s 9, 89, and especially 80 in motion look for the run. They have 6 basic running plays- your standard QB read option, a speed QB option to either side (short or wide side of the field), QB Draw, QB lead, HB zone lead play, and the most effective play is a counter draw play off of their sprint rollout passing package. Their passing game consists of a lot of crossing patterns, out routes and slants. They run a lot of rubs (clearing patterns designed to free another receiver) and are very effective at it. They rarely attack deep outside of the hashes. I saw only one completion in the three games I reviewed (MSU, Indiana, and PSU) and only recall three attempts. They mostly attack the middle of the field and throw the ball less than ten yards. This is a passing attack designed to beat Iowa's defense. But it depends on accurate and timely passing. The offensive line runs both a zone scheme and some power blocking, but they are more effective with the zone scheme. They are pretty athletic and the interior lineman are excellent downfield and very good in the screen game. In pass protection they cut a lot and like to move the pocket more than any team Iowa has faced this season. They are also pretty young, but they have a lot of starts for their age.
Defensively NU runs a base 4-3. They returned 10 starters this season but have really been a mash unit. 20 different players have started a game this season including 9 different in the secondary. They play a ton of cover 3. They are very aggressive in run support and very vulnerable to play action. Wootton is very savvy and plays his contain responsibilities well. When teams run playaction to their left NU has had the SLB play contain and attack the QB- every time in all three games I watched. Northwestern runs a very aggressive defense blitzing on first and second down at least 60% of the time. They send the SLB a lot, but I have seen corners, safeties and six, and seven man blitzes from them regardless of the formation they were facing. They usually tip the blitz however. On third and long they play some form of Nickel 80% of the time. They blitz 70% of the time. When they are going to blitz they show. They run a 3-3 5 but sometimes the third linebacker (Quentin Davie #41) lines up as a defensive end and Wootton slides inside. They usually run a twist together. This is a very veteran defense with five seniors on it and they have experienced beating Iowa at least twice if not three times. They will not be intimidated by Kinnick.
Special Teams: Stefan Demos is a very good kicker. He has had one blocked (PSU) and has only missed one other kick this season in 15 attempts. He is a terrible punter and Iowa would be better off trying to block every punt because his punts are tough to field and they don't go very far anyway. Now he will probably punt one 33 yards and it will roll another 30 and all anyone will remember is I said he wasn't good. He is a kicker who is punting because they have no one else at the moment. The kick return unit is nothing special and the returners are tailbacks Stephen Simmons and Jeravin Matthews. Neither is a threat to outrun anyone on Iowa's kick cover unit and they usually don't get very good blocking. They also give up big plays on their kick off unit. Fisher from Indiana returned one for a TD and PSU almost returned two against them. MSU started the game off against them with one for 55 yards. Iowa should have some success against this unit. Brewer is the punt returner, and although he doesn't have elite speed he can break a tackle or two and he doesn't fool around- he catches the punt and looks to get downfield. He is very sure-handed.
Now for the matchups:
94 Adrian Clayborn RDE and 91 Broderick Binns LDE Vs. 75 Al Netter 6 6 290 LT SO and Neal Deiters 6 8 315 RT R.FR: Netter and Deiters have done a very good job for NU this season. They understand the scheme and what is asked of them. They aren't dominating in the run game but they do a pretty good job of trying to seal d-lineman and are very good when they get there hands on linebackers. They aren't asked to pull very often. Deiters is especially adept at running speed rushers out of the play. Netter really struggles with an inside move and was beaten repeatedly in multiple games by this technique. Clayborn has owned basically everyone he has played this season. It is tough to get sacks against the types of schemes he has been facing and he has still managed to tally 6.5 sacks and 7 hits on the QBs. Binns has also played extremely well this season holding up much better against the run than expected and developing a knack for knocking down passes at the line of scrimmage. He played very well again last week string out several runs and knocking down two more passes. He has tallied 4 sacks and leads the team with 8 pass deflections. That is an incredible number for a defensive lineman
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Kirlew and Middleton pressured Kafka for most of the day when NU faced Indiana and when Persa came in for Kafka against Penn State the entire Oline for NU seemed to lose their composure. Iowa runs more "games" than any other team in the Big Ten and NU really struggled with that in the second half against Penn State. Iowa's front four is also the most disciplined group that this team will have faced all season. These two are in for a long day.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard and 95 Karl Klug Vs. LGs 63 Keegan Grant 6 2 295 JR, 72 Brian Mulroe 6 4 275 R.FR, C Ben Burkett 6 4 280 SO, and RG Doug Bartels 6 4 285 SO: Burkett and Bartels are returning starters and have started every game of this season. Mulroe and Grant seem to be alternating series the last couple of games and Mulroe seems to make the running game a little more effective. I am pretty sure he is bigger than his listed size. These guys are all very athletic and run their zone scheme very well. They all have very good feet for O-lineman. They get downfield very well and are very effective selling screens and draws. They are not the strongest in pass protection if asked to block for longer than three or four seconds but the ball should be out by then in their scheme. When Bartels was asked to block Jerel Worthy, Jamie Kirlew, and Jared Odrick one on one he consistently lost this battle. This could lead to a big day for Karl Klug. Ballard is playing unreal right now and is obviously adjusted to his position change. He is demanding double teams and is still beating them. He is playing the run on his way to the QB and his first step is breathtaking.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Bartels and Burkett are going to have to concentrate on Ballard leaving a one on one for Klug most of the time. NU is obviously having an issue there or they wouldn't be inserting a Redshirt Freshman into the lineup this late in the season. Klug has been playing very well this season but it is easy to get overshadowed when he is surrounded by the rest of the talent of Iowa's D-line. Klug is athletic enough to play spy if Iowa chooses to and Kafka is healthy enough to merit it.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 20 Scott Concannon 5 10 190 So, 25 Stephen Simmons 5 8 175 JR, 19 Arby Fields 5 9 190 FR: Concannon is probably the least physically gifted of this trio but he is the one who gets yards. He runs with great pad level and finds what is there and hits the hole hard. He isn't likely to break a long gain but he won't miss an assignment either. He is just keeping the seat warm for Fields though. Fields looks like a thinner Tyrell Sutton. He just doesn't have it all figured out yet. NU really tries hard to get him out in space. They run a lot of screens for him and he plays the slot a ton and looks natural doing it. He has good hands and runs pretty good routes. He doesn't break a lot of tackles but I would guess he isn't near his listed weight. Simmons is somewhere between Concannon and Fields. He is a little more shifty than Concannon but doesn't have the burst or natural ability of Fields. He will bounce off of a tackle or two but isn't really a power back. He is also comfortable catching the ball. He had a very nice kick return versus Penn State but didn't have the speed to house it. Angerer is having an amazing season. He is a great all around MLB and keeps impressing me every game with how complete his game is becoming. He has become more physical each week it seems and with the weakness of this line and lack of a true Fullback I think he can shut down the tailbacks by himself. Where he will be tested is in pass coverage this week as NU tries to attack the gaps between LBs with crossing routes and slant patterns and is looking for YAC. He must tackle well this week.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I am not sure how much NU will actually run the ball against Iowa. They stuck with it against PSU and had very little success. I think many of Angerer's tackles could come on QB scrambles and I hope Iowa chooses not to line him on the 2nd slot receiver when the Wildcats go empty backfield. I think when the Wildcats show run he should attack downhill and leave the backside for his teammates to clean up regardless of who is playing QB. He is more athletic than Concannon and Simmons and could force a turnover or at least pile up some Tackles for Losses and if NU is off schedule they are much less effective. 3rd and long is a death sentence for them.
49 A.J. Edds SLB, 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB, 19 Amari Spievey RCB, 28 Shaun Prater LCB, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 12 Andrew Brewer 6 3 215 SR, 85 Zeke Markshausen 5 11 185 SR, 11 Jeremy Ebert 6 0 180 SO, 5 Sidney Stewart 6 1 185 JR, 6 Charles Brown 5 11 180 SO, and SBs 9 Drake Dunsmore 6 3 230 SO, 80 Brendan Mitchell, 44 Mark Woodsum, and 89 Sean Rooks: The two most important player for the 'Cats are Brewer and Markshausen. Brewer is a playmaker and possibly a Sunday player. If he can put on some weight he has some TE potential in the NFL. If he can't, he still runs polished enough routes and uses his body so well the right team might pick him late. He reminds me of Marty Booker. He excells at getting an inside release and running slants or in patterns. He also ran a beautiful fade route stealing the ball from Fisher- the Indiana corner. He can break tackles and do something with the ball in his hands. He isn't afraid to take a hit from linebackers over the middle. He has very good hands and great chemistry with Kafka. Markshausen is a nice story I am sick of hearing. I will save it for you to hear over and over and over again Saturday. He isn't real athletic, just a football player. He catches anything in his radius. He understands his offense and coverage and sits in soft spots in zone coverage. They run a lot of WR screens for him and he is pretty good after the catch. The rest of these guys are just that- guys. Ebert and Brown look like they might be good soon but they aren't running the primary routes that Brewer and Markshausen are. Dunsmore is the only real receiving threat of the "superbacks". He is not a good blocker. He is a very good receiver though and he too can run after the catch. He runs a lot of seam routes but seems to be the one guy besides Brewer that Kafka actually looks for down the field. The rest of the Superbacks are basically blockers. They will catch a pass or two but they are outlets. Hunter is going to struggle in this game. He is a great run defender and he has improved his pass defense but this scheme isn't his forte. Edds on the other hand should shine here. He is probably faster than half of NU's wide outs. He can run with Brewer and Markshausen and will probably line up over one of them all of the time. He needs to get his hands on them often and try to disrupt their routes. Spievey also needs to press his man. If Iowa plays its regular base D he should be allowed to play a press and an inside technique and take away the slant when he is matched up on Brewer because it seems to be 33% of their offense. Prater continues to impress and he will need to play well again this week as he will be tested early and often. He must continue his very solid tackling and not get down on himself if three or four passes in a row are completed in front of him. That is the nature of both teams' scheme and he needs to understand that he isn't doing anything wrong as long as he makes the tackle. Willie Lowe has continued to improve his play as well and he is also doing a very good job on special teams. If Iowa plays Nickel he must tackle very well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Northwestern. I touched on this earlier but I will try to explian it here fully. This is the Nickel and Dime team that can move march the ball on Iowa's defense. It will be very frustrating to watch. When they complete 5 yard out after 5 yard out followed by a 8 yard slant, the grumbling in Kinnick will begin. This team takes what the defense gives them. They aren't going to play into Iowa's hands and try to force the ball downfield and they generally aren't sacked because the ball is out too soon. So Brewer and Markshausen will get there 8- 10 catches apiece for 75 to 80 yards. Iowa just has to prevent yards after the catch. The good thing is they don't have a running game and they don't have a reliable way to score inside the redzone. Against a defense with a pulse (read not Towson or Syracuse) the highest point total they have put up this season is 29 against Indiana. They are averaging 21.2 points a game in Big Ten play but scored only 14 vs. MSU and 13 vs. PSU.
9 Tyler Sash SS and FSs 30 Brett Greenwood/ 20 Joe Conklin Vs. QBs 13 Mike Kafka 6'3 215 SR/ 7 Dan Persa 6 1 200 SO: Kafka is very, very good. But he is hurt and even if he plays he will be severly limited. For basically a first year starter he has total command of this offense. He rarely throws the ball into coverage, he is deadly accurate inside of 20 yards- hitting his receiver in stride, and he gets the ball out very quickly. Before his injury I would have said he was the most mobile QB in the Big Ten and that includes Juice and Pryor. He isn't extremely fast but he moves well and finds a passing lane if his first option isn't open, when he decides to run he almost always makes the first defender miss and he is very physical. I don't think he will be doing too much running if he tries to play Saturday. He doesn't have elite arm strength and doesn't test it often. He rarely throws the ball outside the hashes beyond 20 yards and doesn't throw a pretty ball when pressured. Persa is more of a running QB at this point of his career. He is very fast. He probably keeps the ball more often than he should on the read option, and he doesn't stay with the pass as long as Kafka does, taking off with it after one or two reads. He also doesn't seem to have Kafka's shake. He also isn't nearly as accurate or decisive and could be turnover prone in the passing game. Against PSU I saw Persa throw only one ball farther than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Sash is possibly Iowa's most instinctive player. He flies to the ball faster than any safety since Sanders and he is looking to punish when he gets there. He is also a turnover machine. His TD return helped restore life to Kinnick last weekend and certainly sparked the comeback. He will certainly be All Big Ten this season. Conklin has been pretty steady stepping in for Greenwood, but he isn't quite as confident in his reads and is playing a little tentative. This will be a tough test for him if Greenwood can't go. By now I have learned that Iowa's Monday Depth Chart means nothing though.
Spud's Spin: Kafka plays hurt: Push; Persa starts: Edge Iowa. Kafka is smart enough not to force the ball against Iowa's defense and if he does at least he will do it on the short side of the field, i.e. away from Sash. Persa doesn't have the same poise or experience and he hasn't faced a secondary this talented or disciplined ever.
79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 99 Corey Wootton 6 7 265 LDE SR and 94 Vince Brown 6 5 270 RDE SR: Wootton seems fully recovered from his ACL tear he suffered in last season's Alamo Bowl. He has a very good first step and a good bull rush. He speed isn't all the way back but he made a very nice play on a zone blitz where he covered TB McCray for the Hoosiers with very little difficulty displaying very good athleticism. He plays the run very well and is very smart. Brown seems a little out of position. He is not explosive and doesn't seem to have a lot of pass rush ability. He isn't asked to contain often but shows good discipline when it is his role. He can be pushed around in the run game. He plays very high. Bulaga and Calloway are coming off of their best games imo. I think all of the sacks that were taken by Stanzi were on Stanzi and not he Oline's fault. I also think that Iowa pushed around very good DEs who are both probably NFL players.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. If Iowa chooses to run to the left side I think they will find a lot of success. Bulaga seems to have his feet back under him and Brown did nothing in three games worth of watching to make me take note of him. Brown is not much of a pass rush threat. Calloway has been solid all year and he has faced tougher competition this season. One potential match up to watch for is on third and long- #41 Quentin Davie lines up as the LDE and he has a lot of quickness. Against Wisconsin Calloway struggled when matched up one on one with a linebacker in a similar alignment.
77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs.DTs 98 Corbin Bryant 6 4 275 and 79 Adam Hahn 6 4 295: Bryant and Hahn are very solid in the run game. Bryant is pretty much a two down type of player. He isn't on the field on third and long. He is very strong and anchors against the run very well. He likes to jump the snap and he has a decent first step. Hahn really uses his hands well and is the more likely of the two to end up in the backfield. He also likes to guess the snap count. He stays on the field in passing situations. He really plays low and can get a good push. He also pursues down the line well. Reiff, Eubanks and Vandy are coming off of their best game as a unit by far. I thought Eubanks was great on running plays and was starting to really flash his athleticism. He still looks to be caught blocking no one too often in pass protection and can't afford to do that this week as NU rarely rushes 4. Vandy had some struggles but was dominating people in the fourth quarter. He and Reiff have some tough assignments this week. This will be on par with the talent they faced against MSU.
Spud's Spin: Edge Northwestern. I just don't know if Reiff has the physical strength to block Hahn consistently enough yet. And I am not sure if this unit has figured out blitz pickup yet. They better 'cause it is coming this week. From every angle you can imagine. If I am wrong about this you can rest easy Saturday.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 32 David Arnold 6 1 220 SLB SO and 17 FS Brad Phillips 6 4 210 SR: Arnold is listed as the starter but #35 Ben Johnson has played some at this position also. They are basically the same player. Converted safeties playing linebackers. They are pretty fast and comfortable in space. They get good depth on their zones and line up over the slot when teams use 3 wide receivers. They take bad angles and overpursue in the run game and while blitzing. They are undersized and are decimated if they are met by lineman in the second level. Phillips is a very good player. He is pretty fast and diagnoses plays quickly. He doesn't take a lot of false steps and doesn't seem to get caught up in traffic. He is a sure tackler. He is usually the safety inthe box and plays the nickel corner. He is comfortable playing a slot receiver in man coverage. He is the quarterback of the defense. Moeaki had a relatively quiet game but he was kept in to block on a lot of passing plays and was double covered by Indiana and used as a decoy on several other plays. He did and excellent job blocking.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Northwestern plays a lot of zone looks so it will be rare for anyone to be matched up one on one with Tony, but if they are and it is a linebacker Iowa needs to have an Audible put in for this situation. If it is Davie or Arnold or Johnson they can't cover him and if he is bracketed that means single coverage from some very vulnerable corners on our talented WRs. Moeaki is bigger than all of their linebackers and probably more athletic than Wootton also. I don't think their is anyone on their defense he couldn't block besides the two DTs.
82 Allen Reisner TE/H and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 41 Quention Davie 6 4 225 WLB JR: Davie is a leader for this team. He is a good downhill linebacker who can work through traffic and make tackles. He is also an effective blitzer. He is very stiff in coverage and doesn't get good depth. He has good straight- line speed but his lateral quickness and make up speed are average. Reisner and Morse will likely be blocking him or the weakside De in zone running plays and they should have a strength and possibly an athletic advantage. Both of these guys are capable receivers but they have been overlooked since early in the season.
Spud's Spin: Push. I would like to give the edge to Iowa but that would require these guys being involved in the passing game. They haven't been for at least three weeks. They can block Davie, but he will win his fair share in the runing game, that is what he is good at and he is a very good instinctual player. Stanzi needs to look for his outlet a few times in this game if he has time on playaction.
WRs 15 DJK, 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. CBs 24 Sherrick McManis 6 1 190 SR, 26 Jordan Mabin 5 11 180 SO, 47 Ricky Wiena 5 11 180 SO, and Demetrius Dugar 5 11 165 R.FR: McManis has been banged up and if he can't go Ricky Wiena is someone the Hawks should look to exploit. PSU took advantage of him most of the game. He is a gamer and is trying hard out their but he just doesn't have the ability to cover D1 wide outs right now. He really struggles with his tackling and gives such a cushion that he puts himself in poor position to make a tackle after giving up a catch. Mabin on the other side isn't real aggressive but he has some decent athleticism but he doesn't seem to be really interested in supporting the run. He can be shielded from the ball by bigger receivers. Dugar is not a physical player. He did show some nice closing speed. DJK had another microcosm type of game. He ran terrific routes and then kind of left his QB hanging with some attitude. He then showed the kind of athleticism and instincts that make you wonder if he isn't a Sunday player on his 66 yard score. Stross had a relatively quiet game but ran some really sharp routes including a very nice comeback for a catch. I also thought he blocked very well. McNutt showed off some speed I wasn't 100% sure he possessed. He also had a couple of nice broken tackles on the P/A read option plays. Davis had one memorable play that wasn't even his fault. I also saw him run some decent routes and thought he might already get off of press coverage the best out of all of Iowa's receivers.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Even with McManis in this goes to Iowa. This unit is really building some momentum late in the year and it started with their run blocking imo. With them showing Ricky what they can do with the ball on target in film sessions this week I would look for less long throws in the gameplan this week and for more outs and slants. One broken tackle or coverage and these guys have proven now that they can make you pay.
3 Brandon Wegher and 25 Paki O'Meara Vs. 57 Nate Williams 6 2 225: Williams doesn't make as many plays as you would expect the MLB playing for Pat Fitzgerald to make. He doesn't shed blockers very well and he over pursues a lot on running plays. He is decimated by O-lineman. He is also very vulnerable to playaction and doesn't get great depth on his zones. He does have pretty good speed for a LB but it is pretty much straight ahead. His lateral speed leaves something to be desired. He is a sure tackler. He reminds me of Jesse Smith from ISU except he doesn't have Smith's instincts. He is a try hard guy. Wegher had a great day against Indiana and was possibly underutlized early in the game. Iowa didn't really use him at all in the passing game which was a shame because Indiana didn't have anyone who could cover him. Neither do the Wildcats. I don't think Iowa needs to be coy about anything. The rest of their opponents have pleny of gamefilm of Iowa. I think they probably know that Iowa has used Wegher in the slot before. It is okay to keep doing it. I thought Paki did an alright job. He had a very nice 3rd and 14 conversion and held on to the ball when giving Wegher a blow. That is more than most were expecting and I think he will get more opportunities this weekend.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. NU is vulnerable to the big play and Iowa fans have been waiting all season for Wegher to bust a long one. I have been predicting him to get one every week so I might as well continue so I will be right when it happens. Screen pass to Wegher for a 60 yard plus TD. If Iowa can block the DTs and get a big body on either Williams or Davie this will be a long day for the Wildcats. If Iowa can establish the run early and they don't have to rely on Stanzi then you can put away your balm of choice.
12 Ricky Stanzi QB Vs. 4 Brendan Smith 6 1 210 SS SR: Smith is a very solid player. He is a sure tackler and he diagnoses plays well. He rarely takes a false step and has pretty decent make up speed. He is also injury prone. He has to be salivating after watching tape of the Indiana game last week. His backup #10 Brian Peters is a pretty decent player and comes in on Nickel situations. I have confidence in Stanzi. I think he is going to improve and I think last week was a little flukish. But he makes some poor decisions and he is NU's best chance to stay in this game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I was so close to giving this to the 'Cats. But I klooking at Stanzi's past history and he just rarely has two bad games in a row. I think that alot of time was spent this week in Fort Kinnick discussing some of his and the Offensive Coaching Staffs' Flaws. At least I hope so. Smith basically plays center field for the 'Cats. As long as he doesn't catch any fly balls it will be a good day.
some terrible predictions:
1. Brett Morse will rush for 50 yards.
2. Marvin McNutt will complete a pass to Trey Stross for 12 yards on a reverse pass. You will be wondering," Why an out pattern on a Reverse Pass?"
3. In an effort to garner Mass Media approval and remind them of his Belicheckian heritage A.J. Edds will catch a TD Pass a la MikeVrabel formerly of the Pats and currently of the Chefs (no misprint)
4. Iowa will not return a punt all day.
5. Iowa will score on their opening drive and lead the entire game.
Spud's Spin: If I were Pat Fitzgerald I would line up 8 in the box and not vary my defensive formation. I would instruct my players to never tip my blitz even if it meant a guy is a hair late. I would blitz on every down the first three drives but never the same blitz twice. What I mean by that is one time a safety with zone coverage behind it. The next time the Sam with man and two deep safeties. The next time bring seven, etc. The important thing is that you show the same front every time and never tip where it is coming from. Iowa's offensive line and Stanzi have been poor at recognizing the blitz. When they have picked it up they have beaten it for big plays but those have been few and far between this season. The fourth drive I would rush four and only play coverage behind it with the same formation. After this I would play my regular defense and see how Iowa adjusts. If they begin to have success I would go back to my first strategy (assuming it was successful). And the two players I make sure I cover are Moeaki and Wegher because I would suspect that is the adjustment Iowa would make.
If Kafka is healthy this is going to be a scary game for Iowa because he was really begining to play his best football of the year. If he is healthy enough to play it will still be difficult, it will be like playing Purdue with Curtis Painter. He almost rallied them back from a significant deficit last season in Kinnick and they ran similar offenses. Kafka has two receivers he has incredible chemistry with. If Persa plays I will not be too worried. This defense is to good to surrender more than 17 points since they won't allow 20 points in back to back games. NU is just to beat up to put up a fight for more than a half.
Final Score: Iowa 45 Northwestern 17
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
Examing Iowa's Passing Game
Last week I asked the coaching staff to put more on Ricky and they delivered. This week I am going to examine the playcalling, Ricky's decision making, and the scheme in general. I am going to throw a lot of numbers at you and if that bores you I am sorry. I understand that stats don't tell the whole story but they do add flavor to the stew. I am going to try to explain what Iowa was doing and why I think it was the right thing most of the time. And I am going to try to explain why I think they should continue to rely on Stanzi to win or lose them ballgames. Thursday, as if that article couldn't be long enough, I will play Pat Fitzgerald and tell you how to defeat the Hawk's.
Entering the 4th Quarter KOK had called 17 runs to 29 passes. That doesn't include scrambles and sacks as runs, nor the kneel down at the end of the first half- so my statistics don't jibe with the game stats as college counts sack yardage as part of the run yards instead of the pass. Iowa called only 3 running plays in the 3rd Quarter and Stanzi audibled into a fourth one. Iowa ran 13 passes to 4 running plays into at least a steady 20 mph wind. And I think it was the right thing to do. Indiana was missing their best CB in Ray Fisher, and their best athlete and best cover Safety in Nick Polk for most of the game. Donnell Jones was playing was also playing hurt so this was a secondary just begging to be exposed. Indiana played 8 in the box almost the entire game. Schematically Iowa has a very nice passing package. The route combinations are very clever and usually someone is running free. When Iowa picked up the Blitz they really made Indiana pay, as in 92 yards worth and 6 points. Usually Indiana won with the blitz. Iowa's other long TD to DJK on the other hand was all on play design and execution. Iowa ran a "Scissors" route where the wide side corner followed McNutt on his post route instead of staying in his area and Stanzi found DJK all alone crossing underneath him. That should have been Fisher playing there and is probably not there if his he is in. Iowa's goal is usually to maintain balance and they were close by the end of the game but that is because they had the lead and ran 14 straight running plays to even things up. Also the QB scrambles and Sacks make things look more even than they really are. Make no mistake. Iowa is a passing team and they have been all year. My only issue with the playcalling would have been with the long patterns to the opposite hash with the wind howling Iowa's face. With Stanzi struggling the way he was the 4th pick of the third quarter was just a matter of time. Either don't call that play or get in his ear and tell him not to throw the long ball. DJK was open there, but either Ricky didn't have the arm to get it there in that wind or was aiming the ball so bad at that point, they should have stuck to the medium range game. But the picks were not the Coaching Staffs' fault entirely and I thought for the most part their gameplan was very well thought out.
This team can only go as far as Stanzi can take them. He looked to be taking them right down the tubes in the 3rd quarter on Saturday. It really says something about this guy for him to shake off a perfomance like that and come out and hit his next three throws in the money quarter to seal the game. But I think he would like to move on. Here is hoping he doesn't. He could learn a ton from this game. Iowa came out passing in this game. They threw on first down 8 of the 13 times in the first half. He was 4-6 for 91 yards and 2 sacks. 3 of those completions and 77 of those yards came on one drive- the TD scored by Wegher. Iowa needs Stanzi to be more consistent and is going to need more from him the rest of this season than one good drive a half or to be hot and cold. He can't be so streaky. Tubahawk has a very interesting blog that hits on a thread that was bumping around Hawkeyenation earlier this week. While I think KOK has done a much better job this season gameplanning and calling plays(and getting plays in on time) I can't help but notice this has all coincided with the arrival of Coach Campbell. Iowa's receiver play has drastically improved since his arrival. Iowa has had a serious problem with its QB play leveling out and Stanzi is making the same fundamental mistakes he made in week 1. KOK is also the QBs coach and I am not sure if he is best suited for that role. Stanzi threw to his first read 15 of his first 24 drop backs. He also took three sacks in those drop backs that were on him. Those are drive killers that could be eliminated by coaching. I don't have a huge problem with him throwing to his "pre-snap read"- in fact that can be a good thing. It can mean that he has a handle on what the defense is trying to do and he understands how to defeat it. The problem I have is that he stares down his first read and gives the other defenders a chance to react to where he is going with the ball and jump routes. It also prevents his receivers from making plays when they have everyone flowing to them. Stanzi began looking off coverage after his 4th pick but on his last pick, the ball was so underthrown that DJK had no chance at it. That wind was really nasty. My face is still wind burnt. I can live with all 5 of those interceptions as I think that they were physical mistakes. He didn't throw the ball into terrible coverage, I think a case can be made that the wind affected four of them and the umpire the fifth. I am sure he would like to have them all back and he thinks could make better throws but my point is that he was throwing to receivers who had chances to make plays. The worst decision of the 5 was the throw to Keenan Davis. That was likely not going to get enough yards for the first down and he had enough time to look for another receiver. But that was likely the best throw of the 5 picks. The throw to Moeaki is the same one he squeezed in against MSU the week before.. but it is another case of him staring down a receiver. If he doesn't stare down McNutt the Indy corner is running with DJK instead of sitting on the out route. And I am certain the wind prevented two TDs on the DJK picks. The easiest way for Stanzi to solve this is for him to look off his coverage. He needs help with this from his coaching staff. I am not sure he is getting it. The important thing is with the game on the line he found McNutt with single coverage trailing him- TD; DJK all alone blown coverage- TD, Moeaki on the waggle 19 yards and at least a field goal. Iowa doesn't call a pass the rest of the game. Before the first pick I had him dropping back for 108 passes between them(including scrambles and sacks). His decision making is improving and he finds single coverage. He just needs some tweaking.
Finally it was nice to go to a game and see what the receivers are doing. You don't really get to see them run their routes on TV. Iowa's scheme is well thought out. You would think that teams would be on to the playaction waggle by now but it is good for 4 or 5 times a game and can be called out of 5 or 6 of Iowa's formations. Iowa left some bullets in their gun against Indiana this week too. They ran the 5 wide formation zero times this week, and no screens to Wegher. They did break out the Jailbreak screen but it was just like old times and almost got us a delay of game and eventually got us an illegal shift and a block in the back. The one complaint I have about Saturday's gameplan is keeping Moeaki in on playaction to block. Indiana was double teaming him all day. That left Mayberry crashing the line unaccounted for early when he realized T.M. wasn't going out and Iowa didn't adjust well early. It also left the Free Safety Austin Thomas free to float or double the receiver on Tony's side. If that was Ricky's read that usually led to a scramble situation in the first half. Tony is a very good blocker, and Indy's ends were very good but it would seem to make more sense to have him play the "H" and keep Reisner in to block and live with the double team and try to make teams pay with single coverage with our outside receivers. I was very impressed with all of the receivers route running. Iowa runs a lot of simple crossing routes but DJK and Stross in particular ran some exellent double moves and the reason Stanzi threw the two long picks is because DJK had the coverage beaten so badly. If the wind wasn't a factor Indiana probably wouldn't have been either. Iowa would have scored on their third drive and for sure would have been leading by the end of the third quarter. Iowa has three really intriguing options returning next season in DJK, McNutt and Davis. The future looks bright for this season and the next.
Iowa has three games left and the next two will be very tough. Northwestern is always difficult and Ohio State has a lot of talent at D-line and in their secondary. Iowa really needs to look at last Saturday and improve because to win the next two games they are going to have to be a passing team. They have the talent to become an explosive offense. I think that the Fourth Quarter could be the Iowa offense that more closely resembles the rest of the season than anything you have seen from Iowa this year.
Entering the 4th Quarter KOK had called 17 runs to 29 passes. That doesn't include scrambles and sacks as runs, nor the kneel down at the end of the first half- so my statistics don't jibe with the game stats as college counts sack yardage as part of the run yards instead of the pass. Iowa called only 3 running plays in the 3rd Quarter and Stanzi audibled into a fourth one. Iowa ran 13 passes to 4 running plays into at least a steady 20 mph wind. And I think it was the right thing to do. Indiana was missing their best CB in Ray Fisher, and their best athlete and best cover Safety in Nick Polk for most of the game. Donnell Jones was playing was also playing hurt so this was a secondary just begging to be exposed. Indiana played 8 in the box almost the entire game. Schematically Iowa has a very nice passing package. The route combinations are very clever and usually someone is running free. When Iowa picked up the Blitz they really made Indiana pay, as in 92 yards worth and 6 points. Usually Indiana won with the blitz. Iowa's other long TD to DJK on the other hand was all on play design and execution. Iowa ran a "Scissors" route where the wide side corner followed McNutt on his post route instead of staying in his area and Stanzi found DJK all alone crossing underneath him. That should have been Fisher playing there and is probably not there if his he is in. Iowa's goal is usually to maintain balance and they were close by the end of the game but that is because they had the lead and ran 14 straight running plays to even things up. Also the QB scrambles and Sacks make things look more even than they really are. Make no mistake. Iowa is a passing team and they have been all year. My only issue with the playcalling would have been with the long patterns to the opposite hash with the wind howling Iowa's face. With Stanzi struggling the way he was the 4th pick of the third quarter was just a matter of time. Either don't call that play or get in his ear and tell him not to throw the long ball. DJK was open there, but either Ricky didn't have the arm to get it there in that wind or was aiming the ball so bad at that point, they should have stuck to the medium range game. But the picks were not the Coaching Staffs' fault entirely and I thought for the most part their gameplan was very well thought out.
This team can only go as far as Stanzi can take them. He looked to be taking them right down the tubes in the 3rd quarter on Saturday. It really says something about this guy for him to shake off a perfomance like that and come out and hit his next three throws in the money quarter to seal the game. But I think he would like to move on. Here is hoping he doesn't. He could learn a ton from this game. Iowa came out passing in this game. They threw on first down 8 of the 13 times in the first half. He was 4-6 for 91 yards and 2 sacks. 3 of those completions and 77 of those yards came on one drive- the TD scored by Wegher. Iowa needs Stanzi to be more consistent and is going to need more from him the rest of this season than one good drive a half or to be hot and cold. He can't be so streaky. Tubahawk has a very interesting blog that hits on a thread that was bumping around Hawkeyenation earlier this week. While I think KOK has done a much better job this season gameplanning and calling plays(and getting plays in on time) I can't help but notice this has all coincided with the arrival of Coach Campbell. Iowa's receiver play has drastically improved since his arrival. Iowa has had a serious problem with its QB play leveling out and Stanzi is making the same fundamental mistakes he made in week 1. KOK is also the QBs coach and I am not sure if he is best suited for that role. Stanzi threw to his first read 15 of his first 24 drop backs. He also took three sacks in those drop backs that were on him. Those are drive killers that could be eliminated by coaching. I don't have a huge problem with him throwing to his "pre-snap read"- in fact that can be a good thing. It can mean that he has a handle on what the defense is trying to do and he understands how to defeat it. The problem I have is that he stares down his first read and gives the other defenders a chance to react to where he is going with the ball and jump routes. It also prevents his receivers from making plays when they have everyone flowing to them. Stanzi began looking off coverage after his 4th pick but on his last pick, the ball was so underthrown that DJK had no chance at it. That wind was really nasty. My face is still wind burnt. I can live with all 5 of those interceptions as I think that they were physical mistakes. He didn't throw the ball into terrible coverage, I think a case can be made that the wind affected four of them and the umpire the fifth. I am sure he would like to have them all back and he thinks could make better throws but my point is that he was throwing to receivers who had chances to make plays. The worst decision of the 5 was the throw to Keenan Davis. That was likely not going to get enough yards for the first down and he had enough time to look for another receiver. But that was likely the best throw of the 5 picks. The throw to Moeaki is the same one he squeezed in against MSU the week before.. but it is another case of him staring down a receiver. If he doesn't stare down McNutt the Indy corner is running with DJK instead of sitting on the out route. And I am certain the wind prevented two TDs on the DJK picks. The easiest way for Stanzi to solve this is for him to look off his coverage. He needs help with this from his coaching staff. I am not sure he is getting it. The important thing is with the game on the line he found McNutt with single coverage trailing him- TD; DJK all alone blown coverage- TD, Moeaki on the waggle 19 yards and at least a field goal. Iowa doesn't call a pass the rest of the game. Before the first pick I had him dropping back for 108 passes between them(including scrambles and sacks). His decision making is improving and he finds single coverage. He just needs some tweaking.
Finally it was nice to go to a game and see what the receivers are doing. You don't really get to see them run their routes on TV. Iowa's scheme is well thought out. You would think that teams would be on to the playaction waggle by now but it is good for 4 or 5 times a game and can be called out of 5 or 6 of Iowa's formations. Iowa left some bullets in their gun against Indiana this week too. They ran the 5 wide formation zero times this week, and no screens to Wegher. They did break out the Jailbreak screen but it was just like old times and almost got us a delay of game and eventually got us an illegal shift and a block in the back. The one complaint I have about Saturday's gameplan is keeping Moeaki in on playaction to block. Indiana was double teaming him all day. That left Mayberry crashing the line unaccounted for early when he realized T.M. wasn't going out and Iowa didn't adjust well early. It also left the Free Safety Austin Thomas free to float or double the receiver on Tony's side. If that was Ricky's read that usually led to a scramble situation in the first half. Tony is a very good blocker, and Indy's ends were very good but it would seem to make more sense to have him play the "H" and keep Reisner in to block and live with the double team and try to make teams pay with single coverage with our outside receivers. I was very impressed with all of the receivers route running. Iowa runs a lot of simple crossing routes but DJK and Stross in particular ran some exellent double moves and the reason Stanzi threw the two long picks is because DJK had the coverage beaten so badly. If the wind wasn't a factor Indiana probably wouldn't have been either. Iowa would have scored on their third drive and for sure would have been leading by the end of the third quarter. Iowa has three really intriguing options returning next season in DJK, McNutt and Davis. The future looks bright for this season and the next.
Iowa has three games left and the next two will be very tough. Northwestern is always difficult and Ohio State has a lot of talent at D-line and in their secondary. Iowa really needs to look at last Saturday and improve because to win the next two games they are going to have to be a passing team. They have the talent to become an explosive offense. I think that the Fourth Quarter could be the Iowa offense that more closely resembles the rest of the season than anything you have seen from Iowa this year.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Iowa Vs. Indiana Matchups
Indiana comes into this game 4 and 4. They are coming off of a crushing loss to Northwestern blowing a 28 to 3 lead with 7:32 left to go in the 2nd quarter and have lost four of their last five. The only Big Ten win they possess is over Illinois (27- 14 in Bloomington) who is melting down this season. They were in the game versus Michigan. The only game I remembered to dvr was Northwestern. I have seen bits and pieces of the Michigan, Western Michigan, and Ohio State games.
Offensively Indiana runs a spread based scheme using a "Pistol" Shotgun set. The QB sets up four yards behind the center and the TB is directly behind him. This allows for more traditional running schemes and "downhill" style running plays and more convincing playaction out of shotgun snaps. They use two Tight Ends 30 to 40% of the time. They also use a lot of 3 wide receiver and 4 wide receiver sets regardless of the down. They really like the "Trips" formation to the wide side of the field. This season the Hoosiers most explosive plays have come from the running game with TB Darius Willis having the most success. Demetrius McCray also has a 56 yard TD run. In short yardage situations the Hoosiers bring in a hybrid of the "Wildcat" consisting of two extra lineman, 2 TE, and a WR and it is quarterbacked by #5 WR Mitch Evans. Evans can throw but usually they are running a form of the read option out of this formation. They have a couple of variations of this formation but the results generally consist of little to no gain. The passing game is based on short to mid range throws and is looking to get the receiver open with the ability to get yards after the catch. They like to flood one side of the field and give the QB an easy read with 3 options within his vision. The three top receivers account for 66% of the teams receptions. The runningbacks have not been involved in the passing game this season. They don't attack down the field often.
Defensively the Hoosiers run a base 4-3. Against Northwestern who ran 4- 5 wide sets all of the time they moved their FS Nick Polk to WLB and played back up Collin Taylor at FS. They usually rush 4 and play zone coverages. They almost always had their two safties playing deep coverage but I haven't seen them play a power running scheme. Indiana has two very good D-ends and they must be accounted for. Kirlew especially is very good and they move him inside on obvious passing downs. Indiana doesn't have a clear cut starter opposite of Ray Fisher at Corner and this could be a potential spot for Iowa to attack. Starting WLB Will Patterson is also injured but may try to play. Mayberry and Replogle are decent linebackers but make most of their plays beyond the line of scrimmage.
Now for the Matchups:
79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 57 Jammie Kirlew 6'3 263 SR RE, 92 Greg Middleton 6'3 285 LE SR, 51 Terrance Thomas 6'1 263 JR LE: Kirlew is the star of this group. He is relentless and athletic. He lines up most of the time at right end but he and Middleton will swap on occasion. Against Northwestern on Third and Longs Kirlew moved inside and Terrance Thomas played left end although he is not listed on this weeks depth chart. Kirlew uses his arms well on the pass rush and has a variety of moves. He is also stout against the run although he doesn't possess the elite quickness of either Graham or Scholfield who haven given Iowa fits. Middleton has some impressive physical skills but he takes plays off. He looks disinterested if the play isn't a pass or a run to his side. He doesn't pursue if the play is away from him. He if very strong and can set the edge in the run game. He can be run out of the play on the pass rush. Thomas was a non factor when he was in the game. Bulaga has not had the year that many have expected him to, but he has had a lot to overcome with injuries in camp and an in- season illness. He played very well last week in both phases and may be getting his conditioning and timing back. Calloway has been rock- solid most of the season and continued his strong play last week. He draws the easier of the two assignments in Middleton but neither is in for an easy day.
For those of you unfamiliar with these articles I post as spudhawk and Spud's Spin: is my projection of what will happen in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Bulaga and Calloway are just rounding into form and have faced tougher competition in the last three weeks. Kirlew is a beast and Middleton is physically talented but I think the fight may be out of Indiana after last weeks debacle. They are very good pass rushers but I have a feeling Iowa is going to want to pound the ball to see if they can. Look for more short side zone running plays.
77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs.DTS 98 Adam Replogle 6'3 265 FR, 97 Larry Black Jr. 6'2 312 R.FR, 69 Mick Mentzer 6'4 304 R.FR, and 75 Nicholas Sliger 6'3 295 R.FR: These guys are all very young and with the exception of Adam Replogle, the younger brother of linebacker Tyler, very big. They are also very inexperienced and can be pushed around despite their size. They don't seem to rush the passer at all. Replogle and Black are listed as the starters but they all rotate in an equal number of snaps it seems. It doesn't seem to be situational. I think that Eubanks is coming off of his best two games as a Hawkeye. I have been tough on him so far this season but he has really stepped it up in the last two games. Reiff and Vandervelde have struggled in the run game at times this season but have held up pretty well in pass protection. Both will be outweighed by everyone, except Replogle, significantly in this game but could have the strength edge due to time with Coach Doyle.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This could be the weekend that Iowa's run game get's fat and happy. Even missing Robinson and Richardson, Iowa's interior should be able to win at the line of scrimmage in both phases- run and pass. Eubanks needs to be aware of Mayberry and Tyler Replogle blitzing but they almost always show when they are coming.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 46 Tyler Replogle 6'2 231 JR SLB: Replogle is a physical football player and he has decent range. He gets decent depth in his zones and is rarely asked to cover one on one. He has trouble shedding blocks though and Moeaki has twenty lbs. and 3 inches of height on him. Indiana should take a page out of MSU's playbook and not line him up right over T.M. That freed up Gordon to flow to the ball and forced Moeaki to go out and seek him, not fire out of his stance and drive him off the snap. This is Replogle's first season as a full time starter but he has had some impressive games including a 19 tackle perfomance last season against Purdue.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Moeaki has a huge edge in physical ability and experience. He should win in both phases blocking and if they are matched in the pass game. If they are matched one on one in pass coverage with no safety help Stanzi must find him. I think it would be more likely that it would be Polk or Thomas but I still like Moeaki in any match up versus this defense in the pass game.
36 Brett Morse FB and 82 Allen Reisner TE Vs. WLBs Will Patterson 6'1 236 SR and Justin Carrington 6'0 225 SR: Will Patterson is battling a hand or arm injury. In the Tuesday press conference Coach Lynch was non-commital about playing Patterson. He is a three year starter and a difference maker. Carrington is listed as the starter on the depth chart and brings a lot of speed to the position having moved there from tailback. I never saw him in the game versus Northwestern. Carrington has some experience and is in his third year playing the position but had only one career start entering the season.
Spud's Spin: Push if Patterson plays and edge Iowa if Carrington is the starter. Both Reisner and Morse have been flying under the radar for the Hawks this season but are run blocking at a very high level. But Patterson is very good in pass coverage and diagnoses very well. Carrington is athletic but I don't think he has the experience to win the matchup against these two in the run game and could be vulnerable to playaction passes.
WRs 15 DJK 86 Trey Stross Marvin McNutt, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 7 Ray Fisher 5'9 185 SR, 23 Adrian Burks 6'0 175 JR, 22 Andre LaGrone 6'0 185 SO, 6 Richard Council 6'1 201 JR, and 10 Donnel Jones 5'10 210 SO: This is the weak point of the Hoosiers. Fisher has successfully tranisitioned from receiver to corner and is a suprisingly sound tackler. He is very good in both man and zone coverage. His biggest problem is his size. Jones was the starter before suffering an injury and is unlikely to go. Council started versus Northwestern and was repeatedly victimized by Andrew Brewer on third downs. He gave a healthy cushion when Indiana elected to Blitz and gave up completion after completion. Burks was put on the #1 line this week on the depth chart but Lynch said that there would be competition this week in practice and didn't rule out Council regaining his starting role. DJK, Stross, and McNutt each had huge catches in the game winning drive in the MSU game and should be feeling confident about this game. Something else that I would like to point out is although Iowa hasn't broken a long run it isn't this units' fault. These guys have been blocking very, very well. Colin Sandeman, also, should be singled out and even though he can't go, he has done and outstanding job of run blocking all season. He is usually the Flanker when Iowa runs the Two Tight I formation and he has executed all season.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Iowa should win in both phases. If they get single covered a double move could equal six. Iowa should attack downfield if either of the safeties appear in the box. If they get a big cushion a broken tackle on a short pass could still be a big play. I forsee a big day for DJK.
TBs 3 Brandon Wegher and 25 Paki O'Meara Vs. 43 Matt Mayberry 6'2 244 SR: Mayberry is a very solid run defender and has good size. He takes on and sheds lineman well. He diagnoses the run and fills a hole very well and can make a tackle with someone on his hip. He struggles in pass coverage and doesn't have good makeup speed. He is vulnerable to playaction and struggles getting good depth in pass coverage. He is not a natural pass rusher- thinking his way to the QB. He is a physical tackler. Wegher will get his chance to be the man this week as Robinson is likely done until the Bowl game. I thought he had his best game of the season last week, running more patient and hitting the hole with an incredible burst. His screen pass was a thing of beauty. I would love to see more of the 5 wide formation this week versus this team. He is a matchup nightmare for this defense. Nick Polk is the only defender who has a prayer of defending him. Paki gets his chance to get back into the mix. He has done a nice job on special teams and will probably get 8 to 10 carries in this game. I think he will do okay, but he is the only Hawk tailback to lose a fumble this season. He better not do that this week or we could actually see Rogers or Brown take off their redshirts.
Spud's Spin: Edge Indiana. As good as I think Wegher is I haven't seen him carry the mail. Mayberry is a tough and smart football player who is going to hit Wegher repeatedly. If Wegher goes down that leaves Iowa with a Walk-on who hasn't carried the ball since week one and two true freshman who haven't played a down all season. My guess would be a lot of Brett Morse and two tight ends. Lets hope Wegher stays healthy.
12 Ricky Stanzi QB VS. 8 Nick Polk 6'0 225 FS and 20 Austin Thomas 6'2 221 SS: Polk is a very good athlete and will probably play on Sundays. Thomas is a very good college football player and a thorn in Iowa's side. They are both smart and versatile and can play the other's responsibilities. Thomas isn't extremely fast but makes up for it by diagnosing plays and reading the qb very well. He is a hitter. He causes turnovers. Polk is very fast and also packs a punch. He also caught a pass last week that might have been the longest pass play for the Hoosiers this season. Stanzi needs to be aware of these guys on the field and where they line up and what it means. He can't let them bait him into bad audibles or into throwing into double coverage. This will probably be the best safety tandem he will face all season. He must look these guys off before throwing deep.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I think that Stanzi is playing his best football right now and coming off of his best three game stretch of his career. Something he doesn't get enough credit for is his audibilizing and he has done a very good job of that this season. Even though his numbers weren't pretty against MSU his reads were usually the correct one and I can live with physical mistakes or great plays by the other team. He attacked the weak points of the MSU defense all game and they rose to the occasion. I am generally hard on KOK but so far this season he has done a nice job of gameplanning and getting plays in on time- giving Stanzi time to look over the defense and get out of bad plays, something that hasn't always been the case. I think Iowa is going to emphasize the running game against Indiana but that could lead to some big plays for Ricky in the playaction game. I think that it will.
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 76 Roger Saffold 6'5 306 LT SR and 73 James Brewer 6'8 338 RT JR: Saffold is entering is 3rd year as a starter and is a pretty solid pass blocker. He did a pretty good job on NW's Corey Wooten but he had tight end help some of the time. He generated a pretty decent push in the first half in the run game but didn't do much that was noticable in the second half in the run game. Brewer is huge. He is a very good run blocker if he gets his hands on his man. He has a tendency to overextend and get off balance. He has decent feet but can be beaten around the edge. Most of Indiana's big runs this season have come on his side. Clayborn has owned just about everyone he has faced this season. He is Iowa's most dominant DE since Matt Roth. Binns may be Iowa's smartest and fundamentally sound DE ever. I have never seen a d-lineman knock down so many passes or be in the passing lane. I also love where they are playing him on field goals and extrapoints.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. This is a no doubter. If Northwestern was generating pressure with a 4 man rush than Indiana is in trouble here. Clayborn and Binns are going to be in the backfield more often than Darius Willis.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs 70 Justin Pagan 6'5 311 LG SO, 60 Will Matte 6'2 284 C R.FR, 59 Mike Reiter 6'2 300 RG SR: This is another unit that lacks a ton of experience. They have been playing pretty well and Pagan looks like he could be a very solid player. Reiter and Pagan do a lot of pulling on running plays and are athletic enough to get out and reach linebackers. When they down block they do a decent job of sealing and then look to get downfield and hit someone on the next level. Matte is pretty quick and a decent run blocker. They are all adequate for what they are asked to do in pass protection which is protect for about 3 seconds. If Chappell holds onto the ball any longer he is usually in trouble. They do a poor job of selling playaction pass. Ballard is coming off of his best game at his new position. On almost every play on my game chart I have something positive written down about him. Klug also played his usual quietly good game. I thought I would see more of Daniels but I don't have him written in on my notes other than goalline but I could have missed a rotation.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Edge Iowa. Ballard's strength and explosiveness will be too much for Pagan and Matte to handle. Klug and Ballard could pile up tackles for losses shooting the gap when they pull their guards on running plays and I don't think they can consistently pass protect against these two.
42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. TEs 41 Max Dedmond 6'5 233 SO and 87 Troy Wagner 6'5 271: Dedmond and Wagner might as well be extra lineman. Dedmond has 13 catches in 8 games and I saw Wagner go out for one pass the entire game. Wagner is big enough to play tackle though and is a very good run blocker. He also pass protects very well and makes for an effective double-team. I would guess Clayborn should be ready to see him often. Hunter was a beast versus MSU. My favorite part of watching the recording was watching him slam into the fullback. When he keys run he attacks the line of scrimmage and destroys whoever is in his way. He also has improved on his pass coverage so much that I don't even sweat when we decide to not play Nickel anymore. I just wish he had held on to that interception because that was 6 points and would have changed the complexion of that entire game.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. Hunter is playing his best football and has the athleticism to make up for a false step in his aggressiveness to play the run. He doesn't make a lot of bad reads he just wants to hit somebody- Hard. I am not sure that Dedmond can block him and that Chappell will be looking for his tight end enough to exploit any potential weakness in Iowa's zone. And if he does it is likely a 4 yard gain.
49 A.J. Edds SLB, 19 Amari Spievey RCB, 28 Shaun Prater LCB, and 10 Willie Lowe NCB Vs. WRs 88 Damario Belcher 6'5 209 SO, 2 Tandon Doss 6'3 197 SO, 1 Terrance Turner 6'3 207 JR , 5 Mitch Evans 6'3 197 JR, 15 Matt Ernest 6'2 187 SO: Edds is going to be lined up over a slot receiver pretty much the entire day. I didn't see a balanced formation from Indiana the entire day against Northwestern. Belcher is the Split or outside receiver. Doss and Turner usually play the slots. Belcher reminds me of a slower less explosive James Hardy. He is really tall and can break tackles. Doss and Turner are very quick and have good size. They aren't polished route runners yet and they rely upon their athleticism to get open. They are also looking to catch and run. These three are the guys who are on the field most of the time. Evans comes in when they go 4 wide. Ernest is supposed to be the fastest guy on the team but I never noticed him or saw a ball thrown his way. After struggling some early in the season Iowa has become a very good tackling team. It will be important for that to continue Saturday as Indiana is going to try to create one on one match ups for these guys to exploit. Edds and Spievey are playing at an All Big Ten level. Prater is playing very, very well especially for a true sophmore in his first year starting. Willie Lowe has also come on late in the year and is steadily progressing.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Indiana should hope they are constantly on the left hash 'cause they don't want to throw Spievey's way. If they end up on the right has they should just run one of their sweeps to the left and not worry about how many yards they get. Spievey and Sash on the same side = turnover for them.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 28 Darius Willis 6'0 218 R.FR, 27 Bryan Payton 5'9 207 SR, and 22 Demetrius McCray 5'11 200 SR: Willis has become the man. Payton and McCray occasionally spot him but Willis is the future and the now of Indiana football. He has good size, runs with power and has very good speed. If he gets a crease he is gone. He has two long TD runs including an 85 yard burst versus Michigan. They have some pretty fast guys of their own up in Ann Arbor. He is also injury prone and still inexperienced and will be facing the most physical defense he has ever seen. Payton and McCray are basically the same player. They are tough shifty runners who try to make you miss and have trouble breaking tackles. Angerer had a very good game against MSU. He played his usual good pass coverage but he is playing the run much better than I expected him to this season. He is playing much more physical than I expected and he is shedding O'lineman and making plays much better this season. He is rarely taken out of a play.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Indiana tends to throw more than pass but I think Angerer will get his share of the tackles in both phases of the game. He reads his keys as well as any linebacker in recent memory and may have the most speed of anyone to play his position ever. After the season he is having he (and the quotes) he will go down as one of the all- time great Hawkeyes.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs. 4 Ben Chappell 6'3 235 QB JR: Chappell is a traditional drop back passer. This is sort of the reason Indiana installed the "Pistol" formation. He is not mobile. He is not Kellen Lewis. He will scramble as a last resort but is more likely to throw the ball away when pressured. He does a nice job of reading the field and going through his progressions. He can look off coverage if he has time. He has a very strong arm and can squeeze the ball into tight spots and can throw the ball to the outside from the opposite hash. However he needs a clean pocket to work, he is not accurate if he is forced of his "spot." He needs his footwork to be clean and throws an ugly ball off of his back foot. He is not usually pressured into bad decisions. Sash and Greenwood have been allowed to do more this season than last. Both have blitzed some (Greenwood more than Sash) and both have played in the box. Chappell hasn't played a ton of college football and these two could really mess with his head if they line up somewhere beside 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. They really need to tackle well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. If Greenwood is completely healthy that would be a bonus but Sash is enough by himself. Chappell is a decent player but so far he hasn't beaten a decent team and the Hoosiers' were pounded by the two toughest defenses they faced- Ohio State and Virginia. If early in the game Chappell overthrows one ball over the middle Kinnick goes crazy. If he misreads one coverage when Sash or Greenwood are dropping late and throws a pick his team won't bounce back. He has to play a perfect game against a defense that bets you can't. Michigan State just used up all the luck. I almost feel sorry for him.
Some terrible predictions
1. Iowa fair catches every punt.
2. Iowa's defense scores two times.
3. Ricky Stanzi averages over 10 yards an attempt.
4. Paki O'meara will score a rushing TD
5. Indiana's only score will come on a Ray Fisher Kick off Return.
I know that this is really long. I have been doing these in two parts and if you have survived to the end of this I thank you. Here is my final prediction: Iowa 38 Indiana 13 and still no love from the national media.
Offensively Indiana runs a spread based scheme using a "Pistol" Shotgun set. The QB sets up four yards behind the center and the TB is directly behind him. This allows for more traditional running schemes and "downhill" style running plays and more convincing playaction out of shotgun snaps. They use two Tight Ends 30 to 40% of the time. They also use a lot of 3 wide receiver and 4 wide receiver sets regardless of the down. They really like the "Trips" formation to the wide side of the field. This season the Hoosiers most explosive plays have come from the running game with TB Darius Willis having the most success. Demetrius McCray also has a 56 yard TD run. In short yardage situations the Hoosiers bring in a hybrid of the "Wildcat" consisting of two extra lineman, 2 TE, and a WR and it is quarterbacked by #5 WR Mitch Evans. Evans can throw but usually they are running a form of the read option out of this formation. They have a couple of variations of this formation but the results generally consist of little to no gain. The passing game is based on short to mid range throws and is looking to get the receiver open with the ability to get yards after the catch. They like to flood one side of the field and give the QB an easy read with 3 options within his vision. The three top receivers account for 66% of the teams receptions. The runningbacks have not been involved in the passing game this season. They don't attack down the field often.
Defensively the Hoosiers run a base 4-3. Against Northwestern who ran 4- 5 wide sets all of the time they moved their FS Nick Polk to WLB and played back up Collin Taylor at FS. They usually rush 4 and play zone coverages. They almost always had their two safties playing deep coverage but I haven't seen them play a power running scheme. Indiana has two very good D-ends and they must be accounted for. Kirlew especially is very good and they move him inside on obvious passing downs. Indiana doesn't have a clear cut starter opposite of Ray Fisher at Corner and this could be a potential spot for Iowa to attack. Starting WLB Will Patterson is also injured but may try to play. Mayberry and Replogle are decent linebackers but make most of their plays beyond the line of scrimmage.
Now for the Matchups:
79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 57 Jammie Kirlew 6'3 263 SR RE, 92 Greg Middleton 6'3 285 LE SR, 51 Terrance Thomas 6'1 263 JR LE: Kirlew is the star of this group. He is relentless and athletic. He lines up most of the time at right end but he and Middleton will swap on occasion. Against Northwestern on Third and Longs Kirlew moved inside and Terrance Thomas played left end although he is not listed on this weeks depth chart. Kirlew uses his arms well on the pass rush and has a variety of moves. He is also stout against the run although he doesn't possess the elite quickness of either Graham or Scholfield who haven given Iowa fits. Middleton has some impressive physical skills but he takes plays off. He looks disinterested if the play isn't a pass or a run to his side. He doesn't pursue if the play is away from him. He if very strong and can set the edge in the run game. He can be run out of the play on the pass rush. Thomas was a non factor when he was in the game. Bulaga has not had the year that many have expected him to, but he has had a lot to overcome with injuries in camp and an in- season illness. He played very well last week in both phases and may be getting his conditioning and timing back. Calloway has been rock- solid most of the season and continued his strong play last week. He draws the easier of the two assignments in Middleton but neither is in for an easy day.
For those of you unfamiliar with these articles I post as spudhawk and Spud's Spin: is my projection of what will happen in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Bulaga and Calloway are just rounding into form and have faced tougher competition in the last three weeks. Kirlew is a beast and Middleton is physically talented but I think the fight may be out of Indiana after last weeks debacle. They are very good pass rushers but I have a feeling Iowa is going to want to pound the ball to see if they can. Look for more short side zone running plays.
77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs.DTS 98 Adam Replogle 6'3 265 FR, 97 Larry Black Jr. 6'2 312 R.FR, 69 Mick Mentzer 6'4 304 R.FR, and 75 Nicholas Sliger 6'3 295 R.FR: These guys are all very young and with the exception of Adam Replogle, the younger brother of linebacker Tyler, very big. They are also very inexperienced and can be pushed around despite their size. They don't seem to rush the passer at all. Replogle and Black are listed as the starters but they all rotate in an equal number of snaps it seems. It doesn't seem to be situational. I think that Eubanks is coming off of his best two games as a Hawkeye. I have been tough on him so far this season but he has really stepped it up in the last two games. Reiff and Vandervelde have struggled in the run game at times this season but have held up pretty well in pass protection. Both will be outweighed by everyone, except Replogle, significantly in this game but could have the strength edge due to time with Coach Doyle.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This could be the weekend that Iowa's run game get's fat and happy. Even missing Robinson and Richardson, Iowa's interior should be able to win at the line of scrimmage in both phases- run and pass. Eubanks needs to be aware of Mayberry and Tyler Replogle blitzing but they almost always show when they are coming.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 46 Tyler Replogle 6'2 231 JR SLB: Replogle is a physical football player and he has decent range. He gets decent depth in his zones and is rarely asked to cover one on one. He has trouble shedding blocks though and Moeaki has twenty lbs. and 3 inches of height on him. Indiana should take a page out of MSU's playbook and not line him up right over T.M. That freed up Gordon to flow to the ball and forced Moeaki to go out and seek him, not fire out of his stance and drive him off the snap. This is Replogle's first season as a full time starter but he has had some impressive games including a 19 tackle perfomance last season against Purdue.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Moeaki has a huge edge in physical ability and experience. He should win in both phases blocking and if they are matched in the pass game. If they are matched one on one in pass coverage with no safety help Stanzi must find him. I think it would be more likely that it would be Polk or Thomas but I still like Moeaki in any match up versus this defense in the pass game.
36 Brett Morse FB and 82 Allen Reisner TE Vs. WLBs Will Patterson 6'1 236 SR and Justin Carrington 6'0 225 SR: Will Patterson is battling a hand or arm injury. In the Tuesday press conference Coach Lynch was non-commital about playing Patterson. He is a three year starter and a difference maker. Carrington is listed as the starter on the depth chart and brings a lot of speed to the position having moved there from tailback. I never saw him in the game versus Northwestern. Carrington has some experience and is in his third year playing the position but had only one career start entering the season.
Spud's Spin: Push if Patterson plays and edge Iowa if Carrington is the starter. Both Reisner and Morse have been flying under the radar for the Hawks this season but are run blocking at a very high level. But Patterson is very good in pass coverage and diagnoses very well. Carrington is athletic but I don't think he has the experience to win the matchup against these two in the run game and could be vulnerable to playaction passes.
WRs 15 DJK 86 Trey Stross Marvin McNutt, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 7 Ray Fisher 5'9 185 SR, 23 Adrian Burks 6'0 175 JR, 22 Andre LaGrone 6'0 185 SO, 6 Richard Council 6'1 201 JR, and 10 Donnel Jones 5'10 210 SO: This is the weak point of the Hoosiers. Fisher has successfully tranisitioned from receiver to corner and is a suprisingly sound tackler. He is very good in both man and zone coverage. His biggest problem is his size. Jones was the starter before suffering an injury and is unlikely to go. Council started versus Northwestern and was repeatedly victimized by Andrew Brewer on third downs. He gave a healthy cushion when Indiana elected to Blitz and gave up completion after completion. Burks was put on the #1 line this week on the depth chart but Lynch said that there would be competition this week in practice and didn't rule out Council regaining his starting role. DJK, Stross, and McNutt each had huge catches in the game winning drive in the MSU game and should be feeling confident about this game. Something else that I would like to point out is although Iowa hasn't broken a long run it isn't this units' fault. These guys have been blocking very, very well. Colin Sandeman, also, should be singled out and even though he can't go, he has done and outstanding job of run blocking all season. He is usually the Flanker when Iowa runs the Two Tight I formation and he has executed all season.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Iowa should win in both phases. If they get single covered a double move could equal six. Iowa should attack downfield if either of the safeties appear in the box. If they get a big cushion a broken tackle on a short pass could still be a big play. I forsee a big day for DJK.
TBs 3 Brandon Wegher and 25 Paki O'Meara Vs. 43 Matt Mayberry 6'2 244 SR: Mayberry is a very solid run defender and has good size. He takes on and sheds lineman well. He diagnoses the run and fills a hole very well and can make a tackle with someone on his hip. He struggles in pass coverage and doesn't have good makeup speed. He is vulnerable to playaction and struggles getting good depth in pass coverage. He is not a natural pass rusher- thinking his way to the QB. He is a physical tackler. Wegher will get his chance to be the man this week as Robinson is likely done until the Bowl game. I thought he had his best game of the season last week, running more patient and hitting the hole with an incredible burst. His screen pass was a thing of beauty. I would love to see more of the 5 wide formation this week versus this team. He is a matchup nightmare for this defense. Nick Polk is the only defender who has a prayer of defending him. Paki gets his chance to get back into the mix. He has done a nice job on special teams and will probably get 8 to 10 carries in this game. I think he will do okay, but he is the only Hawk tailback to lose a fumble this season. He better not do that this week or we could actually see Rogers or Brown take off their redshirts.
Spud's Spin: Edge Indiana. As good as I think Wegher is I haven't seen him carry the mail. Mayberry is a tough and smart football player who is going to hit Wegher repeatedly. If Wegher goes down that leaves Iowa with a Walk-on who hasn't carried the ball since week one and two true freshman who haven't played a down all season. My guess would be a lot of Brett Morse and two tight ends. Lets hope Wegher stays healthy.
12 Ricky Stanzi QB VS. 8 Nick Polk 6'0 225 FS and 20 Austin Thomas 6'2 221 SS: Polk is a very good athlete and will probably play on Sundays. Thomas is a very good college football player and a thorn in Iowa's side. They are both smart and versatile and can play the other's responsibilities. Thomas isn't extremely fast but makes up for it by diagnosing plays and reading the qb very well. He is a hitter. He causes turnovers. Polk is very fast and also packs a punch. He also caught a pass last week that might have been the longest pass play for the Hoosiers this season. Stanzi needs to be aware of these guys on the field and where they line up and what it means. He can't let them bait him into bad audibles or into throwing into double coverage. This will probably be the best safety tandem he will face all season. He must look these guys off before throwing deep.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I think that Stanzi is playing his best football right now and coming off of his best three game stretch of his career. Something he doesn't get enough credit for is his audibilizing and he has done a very good job of that this season. Even though his numbers weren't pretty against MSU his reads were usually the correct one and I can live with physical mistakes or great plays by the other team. He attacked the weak points of the MSU defense all game and they rose to the occasion. I am generally hard on KOK but so far this season he has done a nice job of gameplanning and getting plays in on time- giving Stanzi time to look over the defense and get out of bad plays, something that hasn't always been the case. I think Iowa is going to emphasize the running game against Indiana but that could lead to some big plays for Ricky in the playaction game. I think that it will.
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 76 Roger Saffold 6'5 306 LT SR and 73 James Brewer 6'8 338 RT JR: Saffold is entering is 3rd year as a starter and is a pretty solid pass blocker. He did a pretty good job on NW's Corey Wooten but he had tight end help some of the time. He generated a pretty decent push in the first half in the run game but didn't do much that was noticable in the second half in the run game. Brewer is huge. He is a very good run blocker if he gets his hands on his man. He has a tendency to overextend and get off balance. He has decent feet but can be beaten around the edge. Most of Indiana's big runs this season have come on his side. Clayborn has owned just about everyone he has faced this season. He is Iowa's most dominant DE since Matt Roth. Binns may be Iowa's smartest and fundamentally sound DE ever. I have never seen a d-lineman knock down so many passes or be in the passing lane. I also love where they are playing him on field goals and extrapoints.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. This is a no doubter. If Northwestern was generating pressure with a 4 man rush than Indiana is in trouble here. Clayborn and Binns are going to be in the backfield more often than Darius Willis.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs 70 Justin Pagan 6'5 311 LG SO, 60 Will Matte 6'2 284 C R.FR, 59 Mike Reiter 6'2 300 RG SR: This is another unit that lacks a ton of experience. They have been playing pretty well and Pagan looks like he could be a very solid player. Reiter and Pagan do a lot of pulling on running plays and are athletic enough to get out and reach linebackers. When they down block they do a decent job of sealing and then look to get downfield and hit someone on the next level. Matte is pretty quick and a decent run blocker. They are all adequate for what they are asked to do in pass protection which is protect for about 3 seconds. If Chappell holds onto the ball any longer he is usually in trouble. They do a poor job of selling playaction pass. Ballard is coming off of his best game at his new position. On almost every play on my game chart I have something positive written down about him. Klug also played his usual quietly good game. I thought I would see more of Daniels but I don't have him written in on my notes other than goalline but I could have missed a rotation.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Edge Iowa. Ballard's strength and explosiveness will be too much for Pagan and Matte to handle. Klug and Ballard could pile up tackles for losses shooting the gap when they pull their guards on running plays and I don't think they can consistently pass protect against these two.
42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. TEs 41 Max Dedmond 6'5 233 SO and 87 Troy Wagner 6'5 271: Dedmond and Wagner might as well be extra lineman. Dedmond has 13 catches in 8 games and I saw Wagner go out for one pass the entire game. Wagner is big enough to play tackle though and is a very good run blocker. He also pass protects very well and makes for an effective double-team. I would guess Clayborn should be ready to see him often. Hunter was a beast versus MSU. My favorite part of watching the recording was watching him slam into the fullback. When he keys run he attacks the line of scrimmage and destroys whoever is in his way. He also has improved on his pass coverage so much that I don't even sweat when we decide to not play Nickel anymore. I just wish he had held on to that interception because that was 6 points and would have changed the complexion of that entire game.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. Hunter is playing his best football and has the athleticism to make up for a false step in his aggressiveness to play the run. He doesn't make a lot of bad reads he just wants to hit somebody- Hard. I am not sure that Dedmond can block him and that Chappell will be looking for his tight end enough to exploit any potential weakness in Iowa's zone. And if he does it is likely a 4 yard gain.
49 A.J. Edds SLB, 19 Amari Spievey RCB, 28 Shaun Prater LCB, and 10 Willie Lowe NCB Vs. WRs 88 Damario Belcher 6'5 209 SO, 2 Tandon Doss 6'3 197 SO, 1 Terrance Turner 6'3 207 JR , 5 Mitch Evans 6'3 197 JR, 15 Matt Ernest 6'2 187 SO: Edds is going to be lined up over a slot receiver pretty much the entire day. I didn't see a balanced formation from Indiana the entire day against Northwestern. Belcher is the Split or outside receiver. Doss and Turner usually play the slots. Belcher reminds me of a slower less explosive James Hardy. He is really tall and can break tackles. Doss and Turner are very quick and have good size. They aren't polished route runners yet and they rely upon their athleticism to get open. They are also looking to catch and run. These three are the guys who are on the field most of the time. Evans comes in when they go 4 wide. Ernest is supposed to be the fastest guy on the team but I never noticed him or saw a ball thrown his way. After struggling some early in the season Iowa has become a very good tackling team. It will be important for that to continue Saturday as Indiana is going to try to create one on one match ups for these guys to exploit. Edds and Spievey are playing at an All Big Ten level. Prater is playing very, very well especially for a true sophmore in his first year starting. Willie Lowe has also come on late in the year and is steadily progressing.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Indiana should hope they are constantly on the left hash 'cause they don't want to throw Spievey's way. If they end up on the right has they should just run one of their sweeps to the left and not worry about how many yards they get. Spievey and Sash on the same side = turnover for them.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 28 Darius Willis 6'0 218 R.FR, 27 Bryan Payton 5'9 207 SR, and 22 Demetrius McCray 5'11 200 SR: Willis has become the man. Payton and McCray occasionally spot him but Willis is the future and the now of Indiana football. He has good size, runs with power and has very good speed. If he gets a crease he is gone. He has two long TD runs including an 85 yard burst versus Michigan. They have some pretty fast guys of their own up in Ann Arbor. He is also injury prone and still inexperienced and will be facing the most physical defense he has ever seen. Payton and McCray are basically the same player. They are tough shifty runners who try to make you miss and have trouble breaking tackles. Angerer had a very good game against MSU. He played his usual good pass coverage but he is playing the run much better than I expected him to this season. He is playing much more physical than I expected and he is shedding O'lineman and making plays much better this season. He is rarely taken out of a play.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Indiana tends to throw more than pass but I think Angerer will get his share of the tackles in both phases of the game. He reads his keys as well as any linebacker in recent memory and may have the most speed of anyone to play his position ever. After the season he is having he (and the quotes) he will go down as one of the all- time great Hawkeyes.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs. 4 Ben Chappell 6'3 235 QB JR: Chappell is a traditional drop back passer. This is sort of the reason Indiana installed the "Pistol" formation. He is not mobile. He is not Kellen Lewis. He will scramble as a last resort but is more likely to throw the ball away when pressured. He does a nice job of reading the field and going through his progressions. He can look off coverage if he has time. He has a very strong arm and can squeeze the ball into tight spots and can throw the ball to the outside from the opposite hash. However he needs a clean pocket to work, he is not accurate if he is forced of his "spot." He needs his footwork to be clean and throws an ugly ball off of his back foot. He is not usually pressured into bad decisions. Sash and Greenwood have been allowed to do more this season than last. Both have blitzed some (Greenwood more than Sash) and both have played in the box. Chappell hasn't played a ton of college football and these two could really mess with his head if they line up somewhere beside 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. They really need to tackle well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. If Greenwood is completely healthy that would be a bonus but Sash is enough by himself. Chappell is a decent player but so far he hasn't beaten a decent team and the Hoosiers' were pounded by the two toughest defenses they faced- Ohio State and Virginia. If early in the game Chappell overthrows one ball over the middle Kinnick goes crazy. If he misreads one coverage when Sash or Greenwood are dropping late and throws a pick his team won't bounce back. He has to play a perfect game against a defense that bets you can't. Michigan State just used up all the luck. I almost feel sorry for him.
Some terrible predictions
1. Iowa fair catches every punt.
2. Iowa's defense scores two times.
3. Ricky Stanzi averages over 10 yards an attempt.
4. Paki O'meara will score a rushing TD
5. Indiana's only score will come on a Ray Fisher Kick off Return.
I know that this is really long. I have been doing these in two parts and if you have survived to the end of this I thank you. Here is my final prediction: Iowa 38 Indiana 13 and still no love from the national media.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Does This Win Gain Ricky the Coaching Staffs' Trust?
Since Coach Ferentz has taken over the Iowa progam the Hawkeyes have reached new heights of success. Iowa finished ranked 8th three consecutive seasons from 2002 through 2004 and played in four consecutive January Bowl games. This season is looking rosy already and Iowa still has four games left to play with only one really tough stumbling block left on the schedule- Ohio State in Columbus. Ferentz and his staff have followed the same blueprint in almost all of those seasons' a balanced offensive attack featuring a smashmouth running attack and a stifling defense that plays fundamentally sound and basic coverages. There has only been one abberation offensively- the 2004 season when Iowa was down to 5th string running back walk on Sam Brownlee and turned Drew Tate loose on the Big Ten. Iowa basically changed offenses mid-stream during that season and went pretty much 70% to a 3 wide shotgun look that relied on Tate's ability to read defenses and extend plays with his mobility and playmaking ability. That was the last time that Iowa won a Big Ten Title. Iowa just has to hang on and win three of the next four to at least win a share of the title this season.
Ricky Stanzi isn't Drew Tate. At least he isn't yet. He doesn't have Tate's ability to process information and ability to extend plays and see receivers break open downfield consistently. He isn't as accurate as Tate was (a healthy Drew Tate for people who only remember his senior year). Stanzi has some things going for him that Tate didn't. He isn't as high strung and seems impervious to pressure. He seems to be genuinely like by all of his teammates and that didn't always seem to be the case for Drew at the end of his career, although looking at the attrition around the program and some of the comments from some of his teammates of that era, that might not have been a bad thing. He is tall enough to be invited to the NFL scouting combine if he continues to improve. He also has a group of receivers at his disposal that Tate could only dream about. But Tate also seemed to have something that Stanzi doesn't yet have. The absolute trust to go out and win the game.
Stanzi is a winner, there is no doubt about that as he has started 19 games and won 16 of them. But a case could be made that Iowa has won some of those games in spite of Stanzi or that the defense won them. I don't want to make that case. In fact I want to make the case to let him do more. I feel like he turned the corner in the Arkansas State game even with the pick 6 he threw in that game. I actually think he was underutilized in that game and that we went away from the long pass for no reason at all in that game. Iowa scored early on two long passing plays and my game notes show Arkansas State was still playing 8 in the box and daring Iowa to throw the ball- playing single coverage on the outside. Stanzi could have thrown for 4 TDs in the first half and McNutt might have caught three TDs in the first half if the Hawks had kept attacking. Arky State didn't adjust or do anything to take it away, Iowa just stopped trying for that play. On the second play of first possession of the 2nd half Iowa runs the Go Route for McNutt and, cue Gary Dolphin, "Touchdown Iowa". Ricky threw 2 interceptions in that game but both were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. It was the long ball that was working all day. And that is the strength of Stanzi's game.
Quarterbacks who are percieved to win games are asked to do it at the end of games or in clutch situations. Iowa doesn't ask Stanzi to do that or they don't put him in postion to do it. I don't know if it is a matter of not trusting him or a ridiculous amount of faith in the defense. Until last Saturday the defense had been up to the task all season and they still allowed only 13 points, normally plenty enough to win you a game. Here are the reasons a couple of the reasons I don't think the "training wheels" have been taken off of Stanzi yet.
Until "The Drive" versus Michigan State, Iowa had not successfully completed a "2 minute drill"this season. At the end of the first half versus Arizona - Iowa stopped a field goal fake and took over with 2:49 left in the first half, a nice momentum swing. Brandon Wegher promptly popped off a 15 yard gain giving Iowa decent field position (their own 35) and plenty of time left to try to extend their 14- 10 lead. Stanzi competed a 7 yard pass to Wegher and then Iowa sat on the ball punting it away. Against Michigan Iowa was seemingly content to run out the clock when a Michigan time out spurred them into passing mode so they could try to run out the clock some more. They then ran three passing plays in a row, getting into field goal range on a beautifully executed flare to Brett Morse. They inexplicably picked up a delay penalty knocking Murray out of his comfort zone with Time Outs in their pocket. Murray missed the field goal.
And finally I think the Coaching Staff takes the ball out of Stanzi's hands content to let the defense win close games. This philosophy has won us 7 close games so far this season. But Iowa could have chance to put a couple games away earlier, including last Saturday's game with more aggressive playcalling. In fairness they tried to give him a chance to salt away the UNI game and Stanzi and the offense came up short, calling four pass plays out of a six play drive (including the punt and scrambles). I also found no flaws with the Arkansas State playcalling, giving them a 80+ yard field with less than 20 seconds.
But the Michigan game drove me crazy. At the time no one knew Forcier was hurt. Iowa had a 3rd and 4 from their own 39. If they had converted it Michigan was out of time outs and the game was over. Michigan was only down two and only needed a field goal to win. Iowa ran Power I zone Lead with a Fullback to Bulaga's side into a blitzing 9 man front. No numbers advantage and a run for a loss. Thank you Denard Robinson.
Against Wisconsin, Iowa had a relatively comfortable 10 point lead with 3:30 remaining. Iowa goes for it on 4th and 5. Iowa runs play action and has Allen Reisner completely alone. There is a hilarious thread on the Scout site about interpreting Kirk's smirk. Stanzi wasn't throwing the ball. If he was throwing the ball he would have stopped rolling out and just thrown the ball. Touchdown, 27 - 10 nightmares of crazy plays and onside kicks abate and you relax. Instead thank you Scott Tolzien.
Finally the Michigan State game. Iowa passes the ball on a perfectly thrown fade to DJK. They then run a Power I with 2 TEs to the short side of the field to Adam Robinson. Good play, well blocked, Greg Jones is a stud, saves a TD. Iowa then has to burn a Time Out getting the play in. That is the KOK I know and love. Next play is the same formation except Iowa motions Reisner to the wide side of the field, same zone lead 2 yard gain, holding called on Bulaga, debatable call, oh well. Now it is 2 and Goal from the 13. This is probably a passing down. Iowa comes out with 3 wide outs( a slot to the wide side of the field) and Robinson in the backfield, Tony Moeaki as the Tight End on the short side of the field. MSU is still in their base defense. The line up exactly like Iowa does here. Iowa has a run called to the short side of the field. They can't block everyone. It is 5 to 6.
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That is my bad attempt at play art to explain what I mean about a numbers mismatch. I am not including the other side of the line #1 because that took 10 minutes and #2, the DE came back around Moeaki to make the tackle for a three yard gain. So Iowa now has Third and Goal from Ten yard line.Pass right? No they run basically the same play out of shotgun only Moeaki is on the other side and Iowa has a better front to block. Three down lineman, three linebackers and five defensive backs. I have three problems with this playcall. One it didn't suprise me. Two if you are worried about a turnover that means you trust a true freshman runningback more than your offensive line and your quarterback. And finally three, if you don't make it it leaves Murray a terrible angle for the field goal and he was already looking shaky on the first two. Fortunately it didn't matter.
Stanzi has now dropped back 101 times without throwing a pick since the interception return for a TD versus Michigan although he does have a fumble lost in there. He is making better decisions and getting out of bad plays when he is given time to do so. As the games progress he continues to get better becoming more and more comfortable with what he is seeing and more confident as the game goes on. He has as much natural ability as any quarterback to play for Iowa. He certainly has the poise and leadership skills to lead Iowa to a special season. This team can only go as far as he can take them. He has earned the right to do more than be a caretaker. He now also has one other thing in common with Drew Tate- a signature win that Hawk fans will never forget.
Ricky Stanzi isn't Drew Tate. At least he isn't yet. He doesn't have Tate's ability to process information and ability to extend plays and see receivers break open downfield consistently. He isn't as accurate as Tate was (a healthy Drew Tate for people who only remember his senior year). Stanzi has some things going for him that Tate didn't. He isn't as high strung and seems impervious to pressure. He seems to be genuinely like by all of his teammates and that didn't always seem to be the case for Drew at the end of his career, although looking at the attrition around the program and some of the comments from some of his teammates of that era, that might not have been a bad thing. He is tall enough to be invited to the NFL scouting combine if he continues to improve. He also has a group of receivers at his disposal that Tate could only dream about. But Tate also seemed to have something that Stanzi doesn't yet have. The absolute trust to go out and win the game.
Stanzi is a winner, there is no doubt about that as he has started 19 games and won 16 of them. But a case could be made that Iowa has won some of those games in spite of Stanzi or that the defense won them. I don't want to make that case. In fact I want to make the case to let him do more. I feel like he turned the corner in the Arkansas State game even with the pick 6 he threw in that game. I actually think he was underutilized in that game and that we went away from the long pass for no reason at all in that game. Iowa scored early on two long passing plays and my game notes show Arkansas State was still playing 8 in the box and daring Iowa to throw the ball- playing single coverage on the outside. Stanzi could have thrown for 4 TDs in the first half and McNutt might have caught three TDs in the first half if the Hawks had kept attacking. Arky State didn't adjust or do anything to take it away, Iowa just stopped trying for that play. On the second play of first possession of the 2nd half Iowa runs the Go Route for McNutt and, cue Gary Dolphin, "Touchdown Iowa". Ricky threw 2 interceptions in that game but both were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. It was the long ball that was working all day. And that is the strength of Stanzi's game.
Quarterbacks who are percieved to win games are asked to do it at the end of games or in clutch situations. Iowa doesn't ask Stanzi to do that or they don't put him in postion to do it. I don't know if it is a matter of not trusting him or a ridiculous amount of faith in the defense. Until last Saturday the defense had been up to the task all season and they still allowed only 13 points, normally plenty enough to win you a game. Here are the reasons a couple of the reasons I don't think the "training wheels" have been taken off of Stanzi yet.
Until "The Drive" versus Michigan State, Iowa had not successfully completed a "2 minute drill"this season. At the end of the first half versus Arizona - Iowa stopped a field goal fake and took over with 2:49 left in the first half, a nice momentum swing. Brandon Wegher promptly popped off a 15 yard gain giving Iowa decent field position (their own 35) and plenty of time left to try to extend their 14- 10 lead. Stanzi competed a 7 yard pass to Wegher and then Iowa sat on the ball punting it away. Against Michigan Iowa was seemingly content to run out the clock when a Michigan time out spurred them into passing mode so they could try to run out the clock some more. They then ran three passing plays in a row, getting into field goal range on a beautifully executed flare to Brett Morse. They inexplicably picked up a delay penalty knocking Murray out of his comfort zone with Time Outs in their pocket. Murray missed the field goal.
And finally I think the Coaching Staff takes the ball out of Stanzi's hands content to let the defense win close games. This philosophy has won us 7 close games so far this season. But Iowa could have chance to put a couple games away earlier, including last Saturday's game with more aggressive playcalling. In fairness they tried to give him a chance to salt away the UNI game and Stanzi and the offense came up short, calling four pass plays out of a six play drive (including the punt and scrambles). I also found no flaws with the Arkansas State playcalling, giving them a 80+ yard field with less than 20 seconds.
But the Michigan game drove me crazy. At the time no one knew Forcier was hurt. Iowa had a 3rd and 4 from their own 39. If they had converted it Michigan was out of time outs and the game was over. Michigan was only down two and only needed a field goal to win. Iowa ran Power I zone Lead with a Fullback to Bulaga's side into a blitzing 9 man front. No numbers advantage and a run for a loss. Thank you Denard Robinson.
Against Wisconsin, Iowa had a relatively comfortable 10 point lead with 3:30 remaining. Iowa goes for it on 4th and 5. Iowa runs play action and has Allen Reisner completely alone. There is a hilarious thread on the Scout site about interpreting Kirk's smirk. Stanzi wasn't throwing the ball. If he was throwing the ball he would have stopped rolling out and just thrown the ball. Touchdown, 27 - 10 nightmares of crazy plays and onside kicks abate and you relax. Instead thank you Scott Tolzien.
Finally the Michigan State game. Iowa passes the ball on a perfectly thrown fade to DJK. They then run a Power I with 2 TEs to the short side of the field to Adam Robinson. Good play, well blocked, Greg Jones is a stud, saves a TD. Iowa then has to burn a Time Out getting the play in. That is the KOK I know and love. Next play is the same formation except Iowa motions Reisner to the wide side of the field, same zone lead 2 yard gain, holding called on Bulaga, debatable call, oh well. Now it is 2 and Goal from the 13. This is probably a passing down. Iowa comes out with 3 wide outs( a slot to the wide side of the field) and Robinson in the backfield, Tony Moeaki as the Tight End on the short side of the field. MSU is still in their base defense. The line up exactly like Iowa does here. Iowa has a run called to the short side of the field. They can't block everyone. It is 5 to 6.
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That is my bad attempt at play art to explain what I mean about a numbers mismatch. I am not including the other side of the line #1 because that took 10 minutes and #2, the DE came back around Moeaki to make the tackle for a three yard gain. So Iowa now has Third and Goal from Ten yard line.Pass right? No they run basically the same play out of shotgun only Moeaki is on the other side and Iowa has a better front to block. Three down lineman, three linebackers and five defensive backs. I have three problems with this playcall. One it didn't suprise me. Two if you are worried about a turnover that means you trust a true freshman runningback more than your offensive line and your quarterback. And finally three, if you don't make it it leaves Murray a terrible angle for the field goal and he was already looking shaky on the first two. Fortunately it didn't matter.
Stanzi has now dropped back 101 times without throwing a pick since the interception return for a TD versus Michigan although he does have a fumble lost in there. He is making better decisions and getting out of bad plays when he is given time to do so. As the games progress he continues to get better becoming more and more comfortable with what he is seeing and more confident as the game goes on. He has as much natural ability as any quarterback to play for Iowa. He certainly has the poise and leadership skills to lead Iowa to a special season. This team can only go as far as he can take them. He has earned the right to do more than be a caretaker. He now also has one other thing in common with Drew Tate- a signature win that Hawk fans will never forget.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Michigan State Vs. Iowa Matchups Part II
In part one I broke down MSU's offensive tendencies. I expect to see less of traditional power I sets and I formations from MSU in this game and more Shotgun in this game. I don't think that MSU will be able to run the ball in this game. Wisconsin had a much better run blocking Oline than MSU and their best running back (Glenn Winston) is out for the year with a torn ACL. Here are the rest of the matchups for this game.
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 57 Rocco Cironi LT SR 6'6 309 and 59 D.J. Young RT JR 6'5 310, 77 J'Michael Deane RT JR 6'5 312: Cironi is a 3 year starter and a pretty solid player. He is better as a run blocker than in pass protection. He struggled against Wisconsin in pass protection. Young and Deane are both inexperienced and have both moved from the defensive line. They are both athletic and better at this point at run blocking. Both have really struggled when left on an island in pass protection and have benefitted from having a tight end left in to help them in pass protection. Clayborn and Binns have excelled at rushing the passer and have done a pretty nice job in run support. They have done very good at pursuit when the run isn't there way. It is important for them to recognize when #7 Keith Nichol comes in at QB for MSU as he is a running threat from the shotgun formation. They will have to read the option on the QB- read play. This will be the 8th week in a row they would face that as Wisconsin brought in Kurt Phillips in for a series to try it after Monte Ball's TD.
Spud's Spin: Big Edge to the Hawks here. Clayborn may be the most complete Defensive End in the Big Ten even though he doesn't have the flashy stats that Graham, Heyward, or Scholfield do. He is more stout against the run and affects more plays than than any of those players. Binns just continues to improve every week and is the best natrural pass rusher Iowa has had since Matt Roth. He should cause either RT he is facing a lot of issues this weekend.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs. 67 Joel Foreman LG SO 6'4 306, 65 Joel Nitchman C SR 6'4 296, and 64 Brendan Moss RG SR 6'7 284: Foreman and Nitchman are returning starters and very good run blockers. They are also pretty solid in pass protection. When MSU is having protection breakdowns this season it is usually from the edges. Moss had only started one game coming into this season and had played mostly tackle before this season. The successful runs I have seen for them have been on his side. He has the ability to pull and is deadly on the second level. He is very athletic for a guard. He can be manhandled however and isn't a good matchup for someone as strong as Christian Ballard, who will be lined up across from him. Ballard and Klug just continue to plug along disrupting schemes. Daniels was a revelation last week making the most of his opportunity and hopefully playing his way into some kind of a rotation. He really plays low and was the most disruptive Hawkeye on the field in his first appearance in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Again this is just not a good matchup for MSU. They really struggled against their only comparable opponent Wisconsin and I think Iowa has a more talented Dline. If Iowa continues to rotate Daniels in and give Klug and Ballard breathers and keep them both fresh for the entire game this could be and even bigger strength for the Hawks.
49 A.J. Edds SLB and 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 83 Charlie Gantt TE JR 6'5 248, 88 Brian Linthicum TE SO 6'5 248, and 85 Garrett Celek TE SO 6'5 243: Gantt is the bellcow of this group. He killed Iowa last year but is a little forgotten this season. He has also been asked to stay in and block more than he had to last season given some of the pass protection issues they have been experiencing. Gantt is probably the third best TE in the Big Ten after Moeaki and Graham from Whisky. He can run any route and do something with the ball in his hands. Linthicum and Celek are better receivers than blockers but they are adequate run blockers. They are on the field alot. Edds is going to get a chance to play over a tight end some against MSU but they really like to run "twin" formations so he should be on a slot most of the time. Hunter has to get his hands on Gantt and disrupt his routes and tackle well when he is asked to cover him.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This is closer than I would like it to be. If Hoyer was still the QB I might favor the Sparty here but Cousin's doesn't seem to look for his tight ends nearly as often as Hoyer did. It is really important for Edds and Hunter to shed blocks from the TEs in this game in order to control the running game as they like to run outside zones with 2 tight end formations and for Edds to tackle well vs. the slot screen in the open field as that seems to be MSU's signature play.
CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 25 Blair White SR 6'2 200, 3 B.J. Cunningham SO 6'2 212, 2 Mark Dell Jr 6'2 197, 82 Keeshawn Martin SO 5'11 185, and 16 Chris D. Rucker SO 5'10 174: Blair White and B.J. Cunningham are the most dangerous players in this group. White is coming off an incredible game against Northwestern where he caught 12 balls for 182 yards. He runs very good routes, understands coverage, and doesn't drop passes. He has a knack for making tacklers miss. Cunningham is dangerous after the catch. He breaks tackles and runs pretty decent routes and has above average speed. Dell is the other main cog in the spread looks that they run. He is mostly a possession guy. He doesn't drop passes and is a very good blocker. He also seems to be a pretty good leader and understand coverage as well. Martin and Rucker are fast but are just "guys" right now. I think they are just in to give the top 3 a breather right now. Speivey is having the best season I have ever seen an Iowa CB have. He is a physical tackler and truly a shutdown corner. Prater is really coming on and almost baited Tolzien into another pick last week like he did in the Penn State game. He has also really done a nice job in run support.
Spud's Spin: Push. I would give the nod to MSU if I knew how smart their OC was but I don't. The fact that they only scored 24 on Northwestern after both of their starting safeties were hurt early in the first half makes me think that he isn't real bright. Wooten was also hurt for Northwestern and they still generated a pretty good pass rush. If he is smart enough to keep Sash and Spievey on the same side and not throw in that direction than edge MSU. If he isn't Edge Iowa.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. 22 Larry Caper FR 5'11 215, 4 Edwin Baker FR 5'9 200, and 24 Caulton Ray R.FR 5'9 195: Caper has taken over the #1 tailback spot after the seaon ending injury to Glenn Winston. Caper has decent vision and runs with some decent power- he will break arm tackles. He runs pretty tall and could be fumble prone. Baker saw his first significant action last week as he had his redshirt stripped. He also runs with some pretty decent power and showed a nice burst hitting the hole. He doesn't show the same vision as Caper but doesn't have the same amount of carries as Caper so far. Caulton is not used as much and is pretty much a speed guy. MSU's TBs don't seem to be a factor in the passing game. Angerer is coming off of his best game of the season. He owned John Clay in the second half. None of the guys he is facing this week will have the power of Clay and Angerer could have a field day if MSU tries to stick to the run. Angerer also showed nice acceleration on his limited blitzes.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa Angerer sees this running scheme every weekday in practice and should be able to read his keys in his sleep. If he can sift through the traffic he could pile up a career high in tackles for losses. I just don't know if MSU is going to try to run the ball very much. Angerer is also very solid in pass coverage and does a very good job of getting depth in pass coverage and has the speed to make up for a false step in case of play action. Caper is the MSU Tailback most likely to make a difference in this game.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs QBs 8 Kirk Cousins SO 6'3 202 and 7 Kieth Nichol SO 6'2 215: Cousins and Nichol were rotating for most of the season but Cousins seems to be the man now. Cousins is pretty much a drop back passer. He is fighting an injured ankle but he looked about as mobile as normal vs. NU. Cousins has a nice accurate arm, nice pocket awareness, he reads coverage well, and he has nice touch. He doesn't try to force the ball into tight spots. He doesn't seem to have elite arm strenght, the ball seems to float on him and he seems to have a funky delivery. He is also as slow as the minute hand on the time clock at your work on a Friday afternoon. I don't know how he ran for a 40 yard gain against Michigan. Nichol is the runner. He can throw but he is in there to add the run element to their spread attack. He isn't nearly the passer that Cousins is. He is also battling an ankle issue and didn't play vs NU. Therefore his effectiveness is greatly limited. I don't expect to see him.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. This game could come down to how patient Cousins' will be. If he can be content to throw nice easy passes against Iowa's zone and slowly march the ball down the field and stay away from Amari Spievey he could win the game for MSU. If he is content to throw the ball away on third and long and let their punter do his job he could win the game. If he tries to force the ball down the field over Iowa's linebackers and under Iowa's safeties he will be feeding the vultures. Sash and Greenwood will get interceptions. He doesn't have a strong enough arm to throw deep outs against Iowa's D and Iowa's LBs get such good depth on thier drops that he can't really attack the deep middle either. The long throw against Iowa is a turnover waiting to happen for him at this point in his career.
Some terrible predictions:
1. Niether team rushes for 100 total yards.
2. Ricky Stanzi throws for his first 300 yard game.
3. No Iowa receiver goes over 100 yards.
4. Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns combine for 5 sacks.
5. B.J. Cunningham leads MSU in receiving yards totaling over 100.
It would be nice for Iowa to come out hot but obviously that isn't necassary for them to win. I understand that the weather is supposed to be bad and that is supposed to favor the running game, but I just don't see either team's defense allowing the other to run. I think both teams will come out passing. Iowa's Oline can pass protect. Michigan State's can't.
Spud's Spin: Final Score Iowa 28 MSU 17
94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 57 Rocco Cironi LT SR 6'6 309 and 59 D.J. Young RT JR 6'5 310, 77 J'Michael Deane RT JR 6'5 312: Cironi is a 3 year starter and a pretty solid player. He is better as a run blocker than in pass protection. He struggled against Wisconsin in pass protection. Young and Deane are both inexperienced and have both moved from the defensive line. They are both athletic and better at this point at run blocking. Both have really struggled when left on an island in pass protection and have benefitted from having a tight end left in to help them in pass protection. Clayborn and Binns have excelled at rushing the passer and have done a pretty nice job in run support. They have done very good at pursuit when the run isn't there way. It is important for them to recognize when #7 Keith Nichol comes in at QB for MSU as he is a running threat from the shotgun formation. They will have to read the option on the QB- read play. This will be the 8th week in a row they would face that as Wisconsin brought in Kurt Phillips in for a series to try it after Monte Ball's TD.
Spud's Spin: Big Edge to the Hawks here. Clayborn may be the most complete Defensive End in the Big Ten even though he doesn't have the flashy stats that Graham, Heyward, or Scholfield do. He is more stout against the run and affects more plays than than any of those players. Binns just continues to improve every week and is the best natrural pass rusher Iowa has had since Matt Roth. He should cause either RT he is facing a lot of issues this weekend.
DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs. 67 Joel Foreman LG SO 6'4 306, 65 Joel Nitchman C SR 6'4 296, and 64 Brendan Moss RG SR 6'7 284: Foreman and Nitchman are returning starters and very good run blockers. They are also pretty solid in pass protection. When MSU is having protection breakdowns this season it is usually from the edges. Moss had only started one game coming into this season and had played mostly tackle before this season. The successful runs I have seen for them have been on his side. He has the ability to pull and is deadly on the second level. He is very athletic for a guard. He can be manhandled however and isn't a good matchup for someone as strong as Christian Ballard, who will be lined up across from him. Ballard and Klug just continue to plug along disrupting schemes. Daniels was a revelation last week making the most of his opportunity and hopefully playing his way into some kind of a rotation. He really plays low and was the most disruptive Hawkeye on the field in his first appearance in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Again this is just not a good matchup for MSU. They really struggled against their only comparable opponent Wisconsin and I think Iowa has a more talented Dline. If Iowa continues to rotate Daniels in and give Klug and Ballard breathers and keep them both fresh for the entire game this could be and even bigger strength for the Hawks.
49 A.J. Edds SLB and 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 83 Charlie Gantt TE JR 6'5 248, 88 Brian Linthicum TE SO 6'5 248, and 85 Garrett Celek TE SO 6'5 243: Gantt is the bellcow of this group. He killed Iowa last year but is a little forgotten this season. He has also been asked to stay in and block more than he had to last season given some of the pass protection issues they have been experiencing. Gantt is probably the third best TE in the Big Ten after Moeaki and Graham from Whisky. He can run any route and do something with the ball in his hands. Linthicum and Celek are better receivers than blockers but they are adequate run blockers. They are on the field alot. Edds is going to get a chance to play over a tight end some against MSU but they really like to run "twin" formations so he should be on a slot most of the time. Hunter has to get his hands on Gantt and disrupt his routes and tackle well when he is asked to cover him.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This is closer than I would like it to be. If Hoyer was still the QB I might favor the Sparty here but Cousin's doesn't seem to look for his tight ends nearly as often as Hoyer did. It is really important for Edds and Hunter to shed blocks from the TEs in this game in order to control the running game as they like to run outside zones with 2 tight end formations and for Edds to tackle well vs. the slot screen in the open field as that seems to be MSU's signature play.
CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 25 Blair White SR 6'2 200, 3 B.J. Cunningham SO 6'2 212, 2 Mark Dell Jr 6'2 197, 82 Keeshawn Martin SO 5'11 185, and 16 Chris D. Rucker SO 5'10 174: Blair White and B.J. Cunningham are the most dangerous players in this group. White is coming off an incredible game against Northwestern where he caught 12 balls for 182 yards. He runs very good routes, understands coverage, and doesn't drop passes. He has a knack for making tacklers miss. Cunningham is dangerous after the catch. He breaks tackles and runs pretty decent routes and has above average speed. Dell is the other main cog in the spread looks that they run. He is mostly a possession guy. He doesn't drop passes and is a very good blocker. He also seems to be a pretty good leader and understand coverage as well. Martin and Rucker are fast but are just "guys" right now. I think they are just in to give the top 3 a breather right now. Speivey is having the best season I have ever seen an Iowa CB have. He is a physical tackler and truly a shutdown corner. Prater is really coming on and almost baited Tolzien into another pick last week like he did in the Penn State game. He has also really done a nice job in run support.
Spud's Spin: Push. I would give the nod to MSU if I knew how smart their OC was but I don't. The fact that they only scored 24 on Northwestern after both of their starting safeties were hurt early in the first half makes me think that he isn't real bright. Wooten was also hurt for Northwestern and they still generated a pretty good pass rush. If he is smart enough to keep Sash and Spievey on the same side and not throw in that direction than edge MSU. If he isn't Edge Iowa.
43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. 22 Larry Caper FR 5'11 215, 4 Edwin Baker FR 5'9 200, and 24 Caulton Ray R.FR 5'9 195: Caper has taken over the #1 tailback spot after the seaon ending injury to Glenn Winston. Caper has decent vision and runs with some decent power- he will break arm tackles. He runs pretty tall and could be fumble prone. Baker saw his first significant action last week as he had his redshirt stripped. He also runs with some pretty decent power and showed a nice burst hitting the hole. He doesn't show the same vision as Caper but doesn't have the same amount of carries as Caper so far. Caulton is not used as much and is pretty much a speed guy. MSU's TBs don't seem to be a factor in the passing game. Angerer is coming off of his best game of the season. He owned John Clay in the second half. None of the guys he is facing this week will have the power of Clay and Angerer could have a field day if MSU tries to stick to the run. Angerer also showed nice acceleration on his limited blitzes.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa Angerer sees this running scheme every weekday in practice and should be able to read his keys in his sleep. If he can sift through the traffic he could pile up a career high in tackles for losses. I just don't know if MSU is going to try to run the ball very much. Angerer is also very solid in pass coverage and does a very good job of getting depth in pass coverage and has the speed to make up for a false step in case of play action. Caper is the MSU Tailback most likely to make a difference in this game.
9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs QBs 8 Kirk Cousins SO 6'3 202 and 7 Kieth Nichol SO 6'2 215: Cousins and Nichol were rotating for most of the season but Cousins seems to be the man now. Cousins is pretty much a drop back passer. He is fighting an injured ankle but he looked about as mobile as normal vs. NU. Cousins has a nice accurate arm, nice pocket awareness, he reads coverage well, and he has nice touch. He doesn't try to force the ball into tight spots. He doesn't seem to have elite arm strenght, the ball seems to float on him and he seems to have a funky delivery. He is also as slow as the minute hand on the time clock at your work on a Friday afternoon. I don't know how he ran for a 40 yard gain against Michigan. Nichol is the runner. He can throw but he is in there to add the run element to their spread attack. He isn't nearly the passer that Cousins is. He is also battling an ankle issue and didn't play vs NU. Therefore his effectiveness is greatly limited. I don't expect to see him.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. This game could come down to how patient Cousins' will be. If he can be content to throw nice easy passes against Iowa's zone and slowly march the ball down the field and stay away from Amari Spievey he could win the game for MSU. If he is content to throw the ball away on third and long and let their punter do his job he could win the game. If he tries to force the ball down the field over Iowa's linebackers and under Iowa's safeties he will be feeding the vultures. Sash and Greenwood will get interceptions. He doesn't have a strong enough arm to throw deep outs against Iowa's D and Iowa's LBs get such good depth on thier drops that he can't really attack the deep middle either. The long throw against Iowa is a turnover waiting to happen for him at this point in his career.
Some terrible predictions:
1. Niether team rushes for 100 total yards.
2. Ricky Stanzi throws for his first 300 yard game.
3. No Iowa receiver goes over 100 yards.
4. Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns combine for 5 sacks.
5. B.J. Cunningham leads MSU in receiving yards totaling over 100.
It would be nice for Iowa to come out hot but obviously that isn't necassary for them to win. I understand that the weather is supposed to be bad and that is supposed to favor the running game, but I just don't see either team's defense allowing the other to run. I think both teams will come out passing. Iowa's Oline can pass protect. Michigan State's can't.
Spud's Spin: Final Score Iowa 28 MSU 17
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Michigan State Vs. Iowa Matchups Part I
Iowa is facing the most critical game in the last several seasons. Probably the most season defining game since the Ohio State game of 2005. There is one more really important game left on the schedule if Iowa clears this hurdle but it all depends on The Hawks winning this one. MSU has won three in a row after a rough September. The games I have reviewed are Michigan and Northwestern which both run spreads. I am going to make this a two parter since I did so much up front. The first part will be Iowa's offense vs MSU's defense.
They are a fairly talented team offensively and fairly veteran on the Oline. They are run a "multiple" offensive scheme which means they run a lot of different formations. They really like to run a lot of Two tight end formations, and have one elite Tight end in Charlie Gantt. They also use a lot of I and Power I (two tight ends). They like to line up with alot of "twin" formations(2 receiver to the same side of the field). Finally they use a lot of Shotgun Spread and are willing to run out of it. They favor the zone blocking scheme for their running game that Iowa uses. They will pull their guards more often than Iowa and run counters out of their I and power I similar to Wisconsin. I haven't seen them run play-action off of their counter play.
Passing-wise they love the screen play to the slot receiver and ran it at least 5 times against Northwestern. They have three talented receivers and two capable qbs. Blair White is a talented receiver who is out of the Ed Hinkel mold. Charlie Gantt was a thorn in Iowa's side last season and can run the whole passing route tree. The Tailbacks haven't been too involved in the passing game so far this season. The fullback Hawken has caught a few outlet passes but isn't a primary target.
Defensively Iowa will be looking in the mirror. MSU runs a 4-3 against just about any formation. Their WLB is a converted Safety who has the speed and cover skills to not look too foolish in zone coverage vs. wide outs. All three LBs are very speedy. They have three talented DL and play as many as 10 during a game. They don't stunt as often as Iowa. They look to play zone coverage most of the time and rush 4 most of the time like Iowa. Trevor Anderson is a very good player but isn't on the level of Brandon Graham or O'Brien Sholfield. When MSU forces a third and Long they go to a 3-3-5 look and generally blitz out of it. They bring at least 4 and usually 5 and look to disguise where it is coming from. Their secondary isn't extremely talented with the exception of Chris L. Rucker. He is a playmaker.
Last Season Iowa had the edge in this game statistically except for the turnover battle. They held Jovan Ringer to under 100 yards rushing and Brian Hoyer under 200 yards passing. Hoyer is now the backup Qb to one Tom Brady. Both teams are so drastically different I don't think it will really have any bearing on the game but I will print it anyway. Here are last season's stats:
MSU Iowa
FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Scks/ Agnst. FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Sck
15 34 91 13 24 184 1 19 39 151 15 22 158 3
Ok here are they match ups like usual.
79 Brian Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 58 Trevor Anderson SR 6'2 260, 89 Colin Neely JR 6'1 248, and 91 Ty Hoover FR 6'7 260 : The last couple of weeks have been rough ones for the bookend for the Iowa Tackles. Anderson, Neely, and Hoover are not as talented as the players they have faced in Graham and Scholfield but they play their responsibilities well. Anderson pretty much will be lined up over Calloway and Neely and Hoover should line up on Bulaga.
Spud's Spin: This should be an edge to Iowa. Although niether Iowa tackle is having the type of season that they were expected to they are still playing at a fairly high level and a mistake on the edge is pretty easy to see. Calloway certainly has the tougher assignment of the two but Anderson is more of an effort player and isn't really polished as he really just tries to bull his way in and occasionally works a spin move. Both players should be able to physically win in the run game.
78 Dace Richardson G, 77 Riley Reiff G, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, 63 Julian Vandervelde G Vs. 70 Oren Wilson JR 6'3 293, 99 Jerel Worthy R.FR 6'3 292, 92 Ishmyl Johnson SO 6'5 280, 96 Kevin Pickelman 6'4 268 SO: Freshman Jerel Worthy had to redshirt last season or he might have seen the field. He is super talented and has made plays all season for them. Oren Wilson doesn a nice job of occupying blockers and keeping the linebackers clean. Johnson and Pickelman see a lot of plays in order to keep Wilson and Worthy fresh but their is a significant drop off in run defense when they are in the game. Pickelman is pretty undersized for a Big Ten D-lineman (I know he is bigger than Klug). I am not a fan of the rotation going on right now but I understand why it is happening. I think that Reiff is better suited strength and build- wise to be a tackle but the experience he is getting right now is invualable. I think that Vandervelde has played well enough in the last two games to get the starting job back. I understand he looked like crap against Arkansas State but he wasn't the only one missing assignments in that game. I also think he has been close to flawless in pass protection this season and Iowa may have to abandon the running game early in this game to move the ball. Richardson has been the rock of the interior. I also think that Eubanks has been steadily improving and has been doing a steady job of making the line calls all year.
Spud's Spin: I would give Iowa the edge here when Reiff is not in the game and other wise call it a push. Iowa just has such and experience edge here and seemed really figure things out in the second half against Wisconsin. MSU really struggled against the only other smash mouth team they have faced this season in Wisconsin and I think Iowa's Oline is superior to the Badgers'.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 43 Eric Gordon SLB JR 6'0 228: Moeaki has played in two games in a row which may be a personal record. Just kidding. When Moeaki is healthy Iowa's offense is just so different. Every formation and play is just so much more effective. He didn't have his best blocking game and still was a difference maker with his receiving. Gordon is a very good player. He is very fast for the position, instinctive, and a solid tackler. He isn't going to awe you with his physicality when he tackles you but he gets you down. He also doesn't get fooled often, doesn't take a lot of false steps or poor angles to ball carriers. He is also a fairly effective blitzer and stays on the field regardless of the down. He isn't asked to do a lot of man to man coverage.
Spud's Spin: Big edge Iowa. As good as Gordon is there is no one in the big ten that I wouldn't give the edge to Moeaki to. Tony M. is possibly Iowa's most talented player and when he is on the field he is Iowa's most dangerous offensive option in the passing game. If MSU tries to cover him with a linebacker they in for a long day. If they let him block a safety we might actually be able to run the ball. He will win any match up he is presented.
82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 34 Brandon Denson SR 5' 11 230 WLB, 10 Chris Norman FR 6'1 210 WLB, and 33 Danny Fortener SR 6'1 205: Reisner and Morse are going to be responsible for getting a helmet on these guys in the running game. They should have a strength advantage on all of them. Denson is very fast, and is a converted safety playing his second season as a linebacker, he can be guilty of overpusuing and taking bad angles. Norman is a very good athlete but a true freshman and pretty inexperienced and vulnerable in coverage. I am guessing that Fortener will be the Safety in the box most of the time. He is a pretty solid tackler and run support is the strength of his game. I think all three of these guys are vulnerable to play-action if Iowa can get any semblance of a run game going.
Spud's spin: Overall Push, I give Iowa the edge in the passing game but Morse has been forgotten in that aspect of the offense lately after a strong start. I give MSU the edge in the run game with the help that Iowa's predicability gives defenses. It is tough to block players that know what you are running in advance.
WRS 15 DJK , 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 22 Colin Sandeman, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 29 Chris L. Rucker JR 6'2 199, 9 Jeremy Ware SR 5'11 188, 37 Ross Weaver SR 6'1 203, and 38 Kendell Davis-Clark SR 6'0 216: This is the big weakness for MSU and they try to hide it by playing a lot of zone coverage. They play a lot of base cover 2 when they can and when they get you in third and long they try to pressure so they don't have to expose their cbs for a long time. The best player in this unit is Rucker by far. Ware, Weaver and Davis-Clark are basically the same player- below average. They do generally tackle well and they are pretty much just looking to keep players in front of them. I would really like to take some time to complement all of Iowa's wide outs but especially Colin Sandeman. He has done a nice job returning punts and was the guy at the end of the game who was blocking when Iowa was killing clock.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. If Iowa comes out aggressive and opens up the playbook they should attack Ware early and often regardless who is lined up on his side. If they can loosen up the defense with some successful early passing then they can get that safety out of the box and try to run with even numbers. If they want to run early they need to be more creative and have three wide outs in the game. These guys are taking their blocking seriously. Chris Rucker is a good physical tackler, the rest are not that good in the run game.
32 Adam Robinson TB and 3 Brandon Wegher TB Vs. 53 Greg Jones MLB SR 6'1 228: Jones is probably the best linebacker in the Big Ten not wearing a Hawkeye or Penn State jersey. He plays his assignment well, is very fast, tackles well and can blitz very well for a mike 'backer. He is decent in pass coverage but his strength is sifting through traffic and tracking down ball carriers. He is a legit sideline to sideline playmaker. Robinson seems to be getting better every week. His vision is what is impressing me the most. He is also running very physical for his size. He had a pretty big drop on a third down last week but that is about the only negative you can point to. Wegher is still struggling to adapt to Iowa's scheme. He seems to be looking to bounce every run outside and is trying to outrun every player. He forgets that he has a little shimmy and can put some moves on guys. He has also been the victim of some pretty bad blocking and playcalls. He is an outstanding weapon in the passing game.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge MSU. Jones has tons of experience over both of these guys and really does a nice job of reading his keys. Iowa is pretty easy to scout and that should make for a long day for both of Iowa's runners unless KOK decides to change things up or the Oline absolutely dominate.
12 Rick Stanzi QB Vs. 11 Marcus Hyde FS 6'0 206 JR: Stanzi needs to continue the solid decision making and accuracy he displayed in Wisconsin. If he can manipulate Hyde with his eyes he should have the opportunity to make plays downfield with one on one coverage as I expect MSU to come out with 8 in the box. Hyde (the older brother of current Hawkeye frosh Micah) is a good athlete but he is a first year starter and hasn't estabished himself as a playmaker yet. If Rick can move him around good things could be in store as Tolzien had a huge day for Wisconsin against this secondary.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa/ I think Stanzi is more comfortable on the road. Stanzi's mobility is also very underrated. He isn't looking to run for a ton of yards, but he escapes trouble and looks to make throws and throws very, very well on the run. I am predicting his first turnover free game of the season. That would bring his average at Michigan State to 1 a game. I would also encourage KOK to take out the 2nd down qb sneak in the red zone. FOREVER!
They are a fairly talented team offensively and fairly veteran on the Oline. They are run a "multiple" offensive scheme which means they run a lot of different formations. They really like to run a lot of Two tight end formations, and have one elite Tight end in Charlie Gantt. They also use a lot of I and Power I (two tight ends). They like to line up with alot of "twin" formations(2 receiver to the same side of the field). Finally they use a lot of Shotgun Spread and are willing to run out of it. They favor the zone blocking scheme for their running game that Iowa uses. They will pull their guards more often than Iowa and run counters out of their I and power I similar to Wisconsin. I haven't seen them run play-action off of their counter play.
Passing-wise they love the screen play to the slot receiver and ran it at least 5 times against Northwestern. They have three talented receivers and two capable qbs. Blair White is a talented receiver who is out of the Ed Hinkel mold. Charlie Gantt was a thorn in Iowa's side last season and can run the whole passing route tree. The Tailbacks haven't been too involved in the passing game so far this season. The fullback Hawken has caught a few outlet passes but isn't a primary target.
Defensively Iowa will be looking in the mirror. MSU runs a 4-3 against just about any formation. Their WLB is a converted Safety who has the speed and cover skills to not look too foolish in zone coverage vs. wide outs. All three LBs are very speedy. They have three talented DL and play as many as 10 during a game. They don't stunt as often as Iowa. They look to play zone coverage most of the time and rush 4 most of the time like Iowa. Trevor Anderson is a very good player but isn't on the level of Brandon Graham or O'Brien Sholfield. When MSU forces a third and Long they go to a 3-3-5 look and generally blitz out of it. They bring at least 4 and usually 5 and look to disguise where it is coming from. Their secondary isn't extremely talented with the exception of Chris L. Rucker. He is a playmaker.
Last Season Iowa had the edge in this game statistically except for the turnover battle. They held Jovan Ringer to under 100 yards rushing and Brian Hoyer under 200 yards passing. Hoyer is now the backup Qb to one Tom Brady. Both teams are so drastically different I don't think it will really have any bearing on the game but I will print it anyway. Here are last season's stats:
MSU Iowa
FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Scks/ Agnst. FD Rush Att. Yds. Co./ Att. Yds. Sck
15 34 91 13 24 184 1 19 39 151 15 22 158 3
Ok here are they match ups like usual.
79 Brian Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 58 Trevor Anderson SR 6'2 260, 89 Colin Neely JR 6'1 248, and 91 Ty Hoover FR 6'7 260 : The last couple of weeks have been rough ones for the bookend for the Iowa Tackles. Anderson, Neely, and Hoover are not as talented as the players they have faced in Graham and Scholfield but they play their responsibilities well. Anderson pretty much will be lined up over Calloway and Neely and Hoover should line up on Bulaga.
Spud's Spin: This should be an edge to Iowa. Although niether Iowa tackle is having the type of season that they were expected to they are still playing at a fairly high level and a mistake on the edge is pretty easy to see. Calloway certainly has the tougher assignment of the two but Anderson is more of an effort player and isn't really polished as he really just tries to bull his way in and occasionally works a spin move. Both players should be able to physically win in the run game.
78 Dace Richardson G, 77 Riley Reiff G, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, 63 Julian Vandervelde G Vs. 70 Oren Wilson JR 6'3 293, 99 Jerel Worthy R.FR 6'3 292, 92 Ishmyl Johnson SO 6'5 280, 96 Kevin Pickelman 6'4 268 SO: Freshman Jerel Worthy had to redshirt last season or he might have seen the field. He is super talented and has made plays all season for them. Oren Wilson doesn a nice job of occupying blockers and keeping the linebackers clean. Johnson and Pickelman see a lot of plays in order to keep Wilson and Worthy fresh but their is a significant drop off in run defense when they are in the game. Pickelman is pretty undersized for a Big Ten D-lineman (I know he is bigger than Klug). I am not a fan of the rotation going on right now but I understand why it is happening. I think that Reiff is better suited strength and build- wise to be a tackle but the experience he is getting right now is invualable. I think that Vandervelde has played well enough in the last two games to get the starting job back. I understand he looked like crap against Arkansas State but he wasn't the only one missing assignments in that game. I also think he has been close to flawless in pass protection this season and Iowa may have to abandon the running game early in this game to move the ball. Richardson has been the rock of the interior. I also think that Eubanks has been steadily improving and has been doing a steady job of making the line calls all year.
Spud's Spin: I would give Iowa the edge here when Reiff is not in the game and other wise call it a push. Iowa just has such and experience edge here and seemed really figure things out in the second half against Wisconsin. MSU really struggled against the only other smash mouth team they have faced this season in Wisconsin and I think Iowa's Oline is superior to the Badgers'.
81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 43 Eric Gordon SLB JR 6'0 228: Moeaki has played in two games in a row which may be a personal record. Just kidding. When Moeaki is healthy Iowa's offense is just so different. Every formation and play is just so much more effective. He didn't have his best blocking game and still was a difference maker with his receiving. Gordon is a very good player. He is very fast for the position, instinctive, and a solid tackler. He isn't going to awe you with his physicality when he tackles you but he gets you down. He also doesn't get fooled often, doesn't take a lot of false steps or poor angles to ball carriers. He is also a fairly effective blitzer and stays on the field regardless of the down. He isn't asked to do a lot of man to man coverage.
Spud's Spin: Big edge Iowa. As good as Gordon is there is no one in the big ten that I wouldn't give the edge to Moeaki to. Tony M. is possibly Iowa's most talented player and when he is on the field he is Iowa's most dangerous offensive option in the passing game. If MSU tries to cover him with a linebacker they in for a long day. If they let him block a safety we might actually be able to run the ball. He will win any match up he is presented.
82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 34 Brandon Denson SR 5' 11 230 WLB, 10 Chris Norman FR 6'1 210 WLB, and 33 Danny Fortener SR 6'1 205: Reisner and Morse are going to be responsible for getting a helmet on these guys in the running game. They should have a strength advantage on all of them. Denson is very fast, and is a converted safety playing his second season as a linebacker, he can be guilty of overpusuing and taking bad angles. Norman is a very good athlete but a true freshman and pretty inexperienced and vulnerable in coverage. I am guessing that Fortener will be the Safety in the box most of the time. He is a pretty solid tackler and run support is the strength of his game. I think all three of these guys are vulnerable to play-action if Iowa can get any semblance of a run game going.
Spud's spin: Overall Push, I give Iowa the edge in the passing game but Morse has been forgotten in that aspect of the offense lately after a strong start. I give MSU the edge in the run game with the help that Iowa's predicability gives defenses. It is tough to block players that know what you are running in advance.
WRS 15 DJK , 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 22 Colin Sandeman, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 29 Chris L. Rucker JR 6'2 199, 9 Jeremy Ware SR 5'11 188, 37 Ross Weaver SR 6'1 203, and 38 Kendell Davis-Clark SR 6'0 216: This is the big weakness for MSU and they try to hide it by playing a lot of zone coverage. They play a lot of base cover 2 when they can and when they get you in third and long they try to pressure so they don't have to expose their cbs for a long time. The best player in this unit is Rucker by far. Ware, Weaver and Davis-Clark are basically the same player- below average. They do generally tackle well and they are pretty much just looking to keep players in front of them. I would really like to take some time to complement all of Iowa's wide outs but especially Colin Sandeman. He has done a nice job returning punts and was the guy at the end of the game who was blocking when Iowa was killing clock.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. If Iowa comes out aggressive and opens up the playbook they should attack Ware early and often regardless who is lined up on his side. If they can loosen up the defense with some successful early passing then they can get that safety out of the box and try to run with even numbers. If they want to run early they need to be more creative and have three wide outs in the game. These guys are taking their blocking seriously. Chris Rucker is a good physical tackler, the rest are not that good in the run game.
32 Adam Robinson TB and 3 Brandon Wegher TB Vs. 53 Greg Jones MLB SR 6'1 228: Jones is probably the best linebacker in the Big Ten not wearing a Hawkeye or Penn State jersey. He plays his assignment well, is very fast, tackles well and can blitz very well for a mike 'backer. He is decent in pass coverage but his strength is sifting through traffic and tracking down ball carriers. He is a legit sideline to sideline playmaker. Robinson seems to be getting better every week. His vision is what is impressing me the most. He is also running very physical for his size. He had a pretty big drop on a third down last week but that is about the only negative you can point to. Wegher is still struggling to adapt to Iowa's scheme. He seems to be looking to bounce every run outside and is trying to outrun every player. He forgets that he has a little shimmy and can put some moves on guys. He has also been the victim of some pretty bad blocking and playcalls. He is an outstanding weapon in the passing game.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge MSU. Jones has tons of experience over both of these guys and really does a nice job of reading his keys. Iowa is pretty easy to scout and that should make for a long day for both of Iowa's runners unless KOK decides to change things up or the Oline absolutely dominate.
12 Rick Stanzi QB Vs. 11 Marcus Hyde FS 6'0 206 JR: Stanzi needs to continue the solid decision making and accuracy he displayed in Wisconsin. If he can manipulate Hyde with his eyes he should have the opportunity to make plays downfield with one on one coverage as I expect MSU to come out with 8 in the box. Hyde (the older brother of current Hawkeye frosh Micah) is a good athlete but he is a first year starter and hasn't estabished himself as a playmaker yet. If Rick can move him around good things could be in store as Tolzien had a huge day for Wisconsin against this secondary.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa/ I think Stanzi is more comfortable on the road. Stanzi's mobility is also very underrated. He isn't looking to run for a ton of yards, but he escapes trouble and looks to make throws and throws very, very well on the run. I am predicting his first turnover free game of the season. That would bring his average at Michigan State to 1 a game. I would also encourage KOK to take out the 2nd down qb sneak in the red zone. FOREVER!
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