A Rank Amateur's Take on the Hawks

Iowa Vs. Iowa State The Match Ups Part II

2010-09-09T20:50:00.000-07:00

Here is the player vs player match up section.

94 Adrian Clayborn RDE 6'4 285 SR and 91 Broderick Binns LDE 6'2 291 JR \/ Christian Ballard LDE 6'5 297 SR vs. 72 Kelechi Osemele LT 6'5 335 JR and 79 Brayden Burris RT 6'6 290 SO : Osemele is a big, big guy. He plays with some fire. He isn't real agile in the run game, he is looking to lean on players and either push them down-field or seal them from the play. In pass protection he sets up fairly quickly and has a very good punch, he has pretty good feet for his size and his very wide so he can be tough to get around. He is tough to bull because of his quick set and his anchor. Burris is a new starter. He struggled a bit versus NIU and was beaten to the outside a couple of times giving up a sack on a bullrush. He has a tendency to set his feet in pass protection relying on his hands instead. He is a fairly agile run blocker and physical- he can move the pile and is adept at sealing his guy away from the play. Much has been made of the struggles that Iowa's defensive line had against ISU last season but both Binns and Ballard should be a difficult match up for Burris in this game. Watching Clayborn and Osemele go at it may be more fun than the game itself.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- Clayborn didn't begin to emerge as a force until after this game when he ran down Arizona's Grigsby in his own backfield. Arnaud may get rid of the ball to fast to take a sack this week but he will surely feel some heat from both ends. Burris will have all he can handle regardless of who is lined up across from him.

46 Christian Ballard 6'5 297 SR/ Mike Daniels 6'1 275 JR and 95 Karl Klug 6'4 270 SR DTs vs 77 Alex Alvarez LG 6'2 305 SR, 63 Ben Lamaak C 6'4 320, and 75 Hayworth Hicks RG 6'3 330: The Cyclones interior played pretty well last week, especially in pass protection. They showed great communication and seamlessly passed defenders on stunts. Alvarez and Lamaak were very mobile on both runs and screen plays. Alvarez is probably smaller than his listed size and can be overwhelmed at times by a power rush, but protected Arnaud well. He showed very good initial quickness and good lateral movement when pulling and getting to the second level. Lamaak really finished blocks well. He did a good job on their zone scheme and calling their blocking schemes. He looks to have made the transition from guard to center pretty easily. Hicks is another very big guy. He isn't real mobile but he is hard to run around. He doesn't get to the second level often but he isn't asked to often in this scheme. If he gets set up and gets his arms on someone they are done. Daniels didn't look like a guy making his first start last week. He got off of blocks very well and found the ball quickly. Klug played his quietly spectacular game reading the lineman and backs and finding the ball almost all the time. He rarely stayed blocked. Hicks will be making a big jump in competition this week also especially when Ballard is lined up across from him.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- this is the kind of offense where people will see how good Klug and Ballard really are. Klug, Ballard and Daniels are going to have to bottle up the interior zone run that ISU bases their offense on. Rarely have I seen DTs find the ball or understand what an offense is trying to accomplish as well as Klug or Ballard. If Iowa is going to control ISU's offense these three for Iowa must do the controlling and I think they will.

45 Tyler Nielsen LEO 6'4 235 JR and 28 Shaun Prater 5'11 180 JR, 18 Micah Hyde 6'1 185 SO, 2 Greg Castillo 5'11 180 SO, 10 Willie Lowe JR CBs vs. 2 Sedrick Johnson 6'3 209 JR, 83 Jake Williams 6'2 203 SR, 6 Darius Darks 6'1 189 JR, 7 Darius Reynolds 6'2 205 JR, 19 Josh Lenz 6'0 188 SO WRs: One thing to note here ISU's main formation is a 3x1 with Franklin on the same side as two wide outs. They generally have 2 Sed Johnson as the Split or single, 88 Franklin close to the formation, slot 6 Darks and Flank 83 Jake Williams on the field. Lenz and Reynolds see some time in all three of the receiver positions but are mostly split time with Darks and Williams. Johnson seems to be the standout of this group. He is very athletic. He can adjust to a poorly thrown ball, can go up and get it, high pointed a ball on a designed back shoulder throw, they are looking to isolate him, very thickly built. Williams runs clean routes, catches the ball away from his frame and secures the ball before trying to make a play. Doesn't look to have great run after the catch ability but scrapes up some yards with effort. Darks finds soft spots in zones, runs good routes, really cuts well, catches the ball well, has some shake after the catch. Reynolds runs sloppy routes, gives away where he is going, had a really dumb penalty last week. Lenz had a nice run after the catch last week but isn't a primary option. More of a returner at this time. Hyde struggled last week on one drive. He got burned on a double move. The TD he gave up he got got peeking in and lost track of his man but that was along time to cover anyone. I am sure he will play better this week. I thought he was pretty physical in the run game. Nielsen was pretty impressive in his debut setting the edge well, shedding blocks and showing great acceleration. Castillo also was much more physical this season compared to a year ago. Still I would feel much more comfortable with Prater in at corner. ISU is going to attack the edges. Prater is a known quantity.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa State- this isn't by too much but ISU has an experience edge here even if Prater is back. I doubt that Hyde gets burned deep again, but there is that chance that he is matched up against Sed Johnson one on one. He needs to win that match up. Tyler Nielsen is also going to make a big leap in competition this week. He is capable but the speed of the game is going to increase greatly for him and ISU is going to have to attack the edges. If Castillo or Lowe are forced into action I am confident they are capable but they must tackle well against both the run and the pass.

42 Jeremiha Hunter WILL 6'2 235 SR vs. 88 Collin Franklin TE 6'5 252 SR: Franklin was the star of the Clones passing game last week and I thought he shined as a blocker as well. He secures the ball well away from his frame and can adjust to a poorly thrown ball. He can do something with the ball in his hands and is pretty athletic for his size. He sets up his routes well and cuts very well for his size. He is a better blocker on the move than from a traditional "y" on the line TE position. He is very good at hitting a moving linebacker or defensive back but struggles with defensive lineman. Hunter looks more flexible. He did a good job in his zone drops and was lined up on the slot receiver more often than I have seen the last two seasons. He has always been a very good chase and tackle defender and takes good angles to plays. Hunter won't always be lined up over Franklin, many times this will be either Tarp/Davis or Nielsen's match up.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa State- Franklin is a very good tight end. I wasn't sure how much a TE would be utilized in this offense but I think that he will be exploited early and often on Saturday. Iowa must make sure he doesn't rack up a lot of yards after the catch and be content to let him have his three or four yard gains.

33 Jeff Tarpinian 6'3 238 SR/ 57 Bruce Davis 6'0 232 JR MIKE vs. 33 Alexander Robinson 5'9 191 SR and 25 Shontrelle Johnson 5'9 182 FR TBs: Robinson is really what makes this offense go. He is a very shifty runner and can make a lot out of a very little hole. He is a very good receiver and a pretty good pass blocker to boot. He runs very low, rarely take a clean shot, almost always falls forward, very good initial burst and good lateral quickness, very good vision, he is a patient runner. He has good hands, and gets his head around quickly making himself available quickly as an outlet. Although he gets up to speed quickly once he is there that is about all that there is, he doesn't have elite speed, he isn't going to outrun too many dbs or even elite linebackers. He plays hurt. Johnson is still pretty unknown, he returns kicks and made a nice run after a catch last week making a couple of moves on defenders. He probably won't play much unless Robinson is injured. Tarp had a great game versus ISU playing in Iowa's 3-4. I am guessing he will get the start as the Mike LB in this game. I think Iowa will focus more on stopping the run in this game and he is going to have to be a big part of that. If the D-line can tie up ISU's O-line he has to clean up Robinson on the interior runs. He is fast enough to take a false step or two and still make his drop into coverage. If Davis stopping the run is specialty so he may need to be more concerned with reading his pass keys.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa State- Robinson will probably get loose once. The key for Iowa is that they limit it to an eight or ten yard gain and the linebackers play well enough that they can keep the safeties deep and not involved in run support consistently. Both of these guys are capable but Robinson will be amongst the top runners they will face all season.

9 Tyler Sash SS 6'1 210 JR and 30 Brett Greenwood FS 6'0 200 SR vs. 4 Austen Arnaud 6'3 230 QB SR: Arnaud had a nightmare game last season in Ames. He is a much better player than he showed last season but there are still some issues with his game he needs to iron out. He has a very good release, strong arm when he has space to deliver, excellent footwork in the pocket, good awareness while being rushed keeps his eyes down-field, fairly accurate on the perimeter from 15 yards and in. Very good with ball fakes on both play-action and on the read option, very patient with his zone read, nimble feet as a runner, physical and comfortable in traffic as a runner not afraid of contact. Arnaud struggles throwing over the middle, especially putting the ball over a defender. He is great if he can throw on a line, but if he needs to put touch on the ball he, or anticipate a throw he really struggles. He can't seem to work the deep middle of the field. Greenwood and Sash are a very good tandem and really seem to work well together. They read keys well and really support the run well. They get great depth on their zone drops and are fast enough to still make an impact on the run game. They both rarely miss a tackle and Sash was really physical last week. Greenwood has started all but two games in his career and Sash is entering his third year as a starter.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- this will be a huge edge for the Hawks if the front seven is able to control the running game without their help. If they are able to sit back again and read Arnaud and provide help over the top for the young corners this will make this a much more difficult game for Arnaud. Arnaud hasn't yet shown that he can be patient for an entire game and take what the defense gives him or sail a ball at the wrong time. If he makes a poor decision or two or is pressured into a mistake Sash and Greenwood will be waiting with open arms.

77 Riley Reiff LT 6'6 300sO and Markus Zusevics RT 6'5 295 JR vs. 29 Rashawn Parker RDE 6'0 250 SR and 91 Patrick Neal LDE 6'1 235 SR: Parker may be most famous to Iowa fans for the hit that Marshall Yanda laid on him on the reverse in the 2006 game. He played last season but suffered a season ending injury and received a medical red shirt and is back for his 5th Cy-Hawk game. He will stand up and drop occasionally and looks comfortable doing it. Very active and good in pursuit, very patient on twists, shows a good first step, looking to beat a lineman with speed, doesn't show a lot of moves- constantly trying to run around a defender, can run himself out of plays. Neal is pretty undersized and can be pushed around at times, sheds TEs at times, good first step, will play his gap just doesn't always look for the ball, anther hustle player- ran several plays down from behind. Reiff played well last week and looks natural as a tackle. He may have to be ready for some exotic blitzes this week and be ready to pick up a variety of stunts. He should be able to handle anyone lined up in front of him in the run game. Zusevics looked pretty comfortable last week showing good feet and solid quickness in the run game. He should be able to handle Neal but what I am concerned with is his ability to recognize and pick up the blitz. Jake Knott really flashed and he could be a handful for any of Iowa's lineman to handle if he were to attack on the edge or come on a delayed blitz. The physical part of the game should come easy for Zusevics but for a guy making only his second start ISU's defense could present some difficulty.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- physically this is an edge for Iowa. I think they will be prepared for what is going to be thrown at them and I think the game-plan will not put too much on the young offensive lineman too soon. I think if Iowa can have some success early that it will snowball and eventually they can just wear down a young defense and dominate them physically with the run.

63 Julian Vandervelde LG 6'3 300 SR, 53 James Ferentz C 6'2 275 SO, and 73 Adam Gettis RG 6'4 280 JR/ 76 Nolan MacMillan RG 6'6 295 R.FR vs. 97 Stephen Ruempolhamer 6'3 280 JR, 85 Bailey Johnson 6'2 285 SR, and Jake McDonough 6'5 288 SO DTs: Ruempolhamer looks to be the standout of this group. Has a good get off- good first step and sees the play well. Flows down the line well and avoids traffic well for his size, if he doesn't generate a pass rush is aware enough to get his hands in the air- tipped a couple of NIU passes, he was the one ISU D-lineman to consistently find the ball at the LOS. Another hustler constantly in on plays way down-field. Johnson was the other starter. He fought a lot of double teams and got pushed around a few times. He found himself sideways a lot and was easily sealed away from several runs. Didn't seem to be too involved in the pass rush. McDonough got a consistent push when he was in, another hustler, high energy took himself out of some plays with aggressiveness. Johnson usually lined up over the center and was forced to take on the doubles versus NIU freeing Ruempolhamer to get a one on one match up. They switched sides depending on how NIU lined up. Vandervelde played very well last week in both phases. If he can remain healthy I look forward to a strong senior campaign from him. Ferentz was pushed around at times early in this game but EIU actually had a bigger DT than ISU. For the most part he did the pushing. He did a good job in pass protection and with his line calls. He was excellent on the second level. MacMillan was also very consistent in pass protection and at times excellent in the run game. He showed a very good short are burst and good lateral movement. Gettis played more than people realize last season. He started versus UNI but saw action in five other games and not just mop up time either. Gettis has been consistently singled out for praise by the coaching staff so if he is good to go I think he will start. The last player to receive this kind of praise was Reiff.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- the Hawks need to own this match up and these guys need to consistently hit their targets at the second level to make the play-action game viable. Stanzi and Ferentz need to communicate and read the blitz and if they do this should be a very good day for the Hawks.

15 Derrell Johnson- Koulianos 6'1 200 SR, 7 Marvin McNutt 6'4 215 JR, 22 Colin Sandeman 6'1 200 SR, 6 Keenan Davis 6'3 215 SO, and 26 Paul Chaney 5'9 170 SR WRs vs. 23 Leonard Johnson 5'10 195 JR, 5 Jeremy Reeves 5'7 168 SO, 4 Anthony Young 5'8 172 JR CBs: Ter'Ran Benton lost his grandmother this week and I would like to send my condolences to he and his family. He would normally be the starter opposite of Leonard Johnson and slides to cover the slot receiver when they play Nickel. Both Reeves and Young saw quite a bit of time last week against NIU and both should have been burned often. Johnson is a very steady corner. I don't think ISU knows what they have in the secondary yet as NIU couldn't complete a pass beyond fifteen yards last week. DJK, McNutt, and Sandeman all looked pretty sharp last week. Davis looked very good last year in this game and then didn't really garner much consistent PT after that game. I haven't seen enough of Chaney to determine if he has regained all of his speed and his cutting ability from his ACL injury.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- this is the biggest mismatch of the game. Iowa should figure out if Johnson and Sims are on the same side and just attack the other corner over and over to see how they hold up. It doesn't matter who is at receiver and whether it is Reeves or Young. I expect ISU to blitz a ton to try to take pressure off of the secondary but if the Hawks can pick it up they should be able to exploit this match up for very big gains. Here is a fun stat ISU's starting receiver's total 10 TDs for their career. McNutt had 8 last season.

82 Allen Reisner 6'3 248 SR and 39 Brad Herman 6'5 247 JR TEs and 36 Brett Morse FB 6'3 238 SR vs. 47 A.J. Klein SAM 6'1 240 SO and 20 Jake Knott WILL 6'2 240: Klein and Knott played very well last week, especially Knott who was all over the field. Knott had two picks and seemed to be involved in every tackle. He has great speed for his position, diagnoses plays well, sifts through traffic well, gets great depth on his zone drops, and rarely misses a tackle- really squares himself up well. Klein isn't quite as fast or agile but he is a tick more physical, he doesn't shed blocks quite as well but still tends to find his way to the ball, can break down in space and make a tackle, takes pretty good angles, and finds his landmarks in obvious passing downs. These two are the Nickel linebackers. Reisner is a very underrated blocker. He can be physical but he just does whatever it takes to get the job done. Herman may have had a coming out party last weekend. He blocked very well. Morse is another steady player who does his job without needing to be noticed. He was involved in the passing game early last season, too, I hope that is a trend that continues.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- experience, experience, experience. The Hawks have it and the Clones don't. Physically this might be a push but I think the Hawks will find either the tight ends behind these aggressive young linebackers in pass coverage on play-action or they will just seal them off during running plays as they run themselves out of plays with over-aggressiveness.

32 Adam Robinson 5'9 205 SO and 27 Jewel Hampton 5'9 210 SO TBs vs. 45 Matt Tau' fo' ou MIKE 5'11 239 JR: Matt (sorry) is a thickly built Mike is aggressive filling his lane. He has good lateral quickness, decent straight-line speed and sheds blockers pretty well, however he didn't get involved in a lot of plays last week. He also seem to struggle to get a proper drop after taking a false step on play-action. He got lost often in traffic on edge runs but he hustled and made plays in pursuit. Robinson played very well last week and gets lost in the shuffle with the expected return of Hampton. Robinson is a very good blocker, catches the ball well, and runs between the tackles very, very well. He is rarely taken down by first contact and his vision continues to improve. Hampton is still somewhat of an unknown quantity but the coaches and media are very high on him. In '08 he improved every game. He runs angry. He has a very similar style to Robinson only he may be a homerun hitter. He looked very good catching passes in the spring and in the Big Ten Practice Show.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- lost in the shuffle last season was that Iowa had a pretty successful day on the ground last year too. Although it was Wegher that did most of the damage, on of these two is bound to find a few creases and wear down this young defense especially in the second half.

12 Ricky Stanzi QB 6'4 230 SR vs. 1 David Sims SS 5'9 204 SR and 37 Michael O'Connell FS 5'11 208 SR: Sims is a very good safety. He had two picks in this game last season. I have heard he is a cross between Ed Reed and some other famous guy. He plays incredibly fast and diagnoses very well. He doesn't get out of position often or miss too many tackles. O'Connell is really aggressive, he sometimes takes some poor angles, he diagnoses plays pretty quickly and is looking to be a factor on run support. He can struggle a bit in man coverage against a quick player, he missed a few tackles but he is playing hurt. He is another hustler involved in almost every play. Stanzi was playing an almost flawless game before he went down with the injury. He still had incredible numbers. He made great decisions all day but my favorite might have been a scramble for no gain on the second TD drive. If he is as accurate versus ISU as he was versus EIU and has that kind of time to throw this game will be over in the early second quarter. Last year in this game he was shaky in the first half. He missed open receivers and threw two picks in the first half.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- I truly think that we are going to see a different Stanzi this season. He is going to make mistakes. But they will more likely be physical ones, I think mental ones will be rare. This is a defense that can be exploited and I think he will exploit it early and often.

Five terrible predictions
1. James Morris totals 3 tackles and FF on kick offs
2. One of Iowa's Defensive Lineman returns an interception for a TD in this game I vote Binns.
3. Alexander Robinson ends the touchdown streak in the third quarter.
4. Jeff Tarpinian leads the team with 11 tackles and a fumble recovery and a pick
5. Stanzi throws 3 TD passes in the first quarter Sandeman catches two.

This could be a tough game if Iowa starts slowly. ISU will come into this game and they will probably throw the kitchen sink at Iowa. Iowa's offensive line is far from proven. ISU's defensive front seven is more athletic than they were last season. There secondary is not, however, and they are much less experienced. This is a much different and more confident Iowa defense also. ISU has a right to come into this game confident. They are a solid, well coached team. This game can always be an emotional toss up type of game.
Spud's Spin: The Clones are just too thin at too many spots and too inexperienced on defense to win this game outright. Even if they keep it close and make Iowa one dimensional, eventually Iowa is bound to take advantage of that one dimension in a big way. Iowa's defense is well suited to defend this type of offense. The d-line can control this style of option. The safeties are experienced and fast enough to erase any mistakes the young corners might make. And the linebackers are fast enough to defend the type of edge runs, screens, and quick hitting pass play this offense is designed to thrive on. Final Score Iowa 38 ISU 13

Iowa Vs. Iowa State The Match Ups Part I

2010-09-08T19:20:00.000-07:00

Both the Hawks and Clones enjoyed successful opening weekends. Iowa dominated Eastern Illinois surviving a knee scare to QB Ricky Stanzi, and Iowa State survived three turnovers to relatively dominate Northern Illinois in a game that many expected them to lose. While the Hawks are the heavy favorite in this game anyone who follows this series knows that anything can happen this Saturday. I am going to try to shorten these a little this season. I will at least write more about the opponent in the first several paragraphs for a sort of condensed version and then leave the rest for the hardcore readers (or for those of you who have a ton of time on your hands).

Iowa State runs a QB read- option based spread offense. They run the "check with me" style where they set up on the line of scrimmage right away to possibly take advantage of a defensive substitution, and then read the defense and check with the offensive coaching staff to get a play call or audible. All of their formations feature the shotgun snap. They feature three main formations: a balanced four receiver set featuring a tight end as a flexed slot with the tailback lined up next to the quarterback, a three x one tight end set with the tight end flexed out next to the slot creating a trips set, and a balanced three x one tight end set with the tight end lined up on the line of scrimmage opposite of the slot. They feature a couple of two tight end formations familiar to Iowa fans and a five wide set with both their regular personnel and five wides.

The basis of the run game is the QB read- option. They block this play two ways- the standard zone and they pull the guard occasionally. They run an outside option play, a counter that can be run off of motion or with the tailback lined up next to the QB, a couple of variations of a QB draw and a tailback draw, and finally a QB sneak that they like to run quickly while the defense is still setting up. I am sure they have some slot and outside receiver reverses left in the playbook that we will see on Saturday.

This passing game features mostly quick passes and focuses on the perimeter of the defense. Most of their passes are completed inside of ten yards of the line of scrimmage. ISU doesn't take a lot of shots down-field and when they do it is mostly done with either a moving pocket or play-action. They run a lot of slip screens to any of the receivers, especially when they are lined up in some variation of a Trips formation. The Clones do not attack the deep middle of the field often, out of lack of ability or scheme.

On defense the Cyclones run a base 4-3. Last season ISU tried to stop Iowa with just their front seven and were pretty successful early in the game. Versus NIU the Clones realized that Grady couldn't throw it into the ocean if he were deserted on an island and were able to play eleven in the box at times to try to stop the run. I doubt that they try that versus Iowa but wouldn't be surprised to see Sims or O'Connell walk up into the box occasionally on first or second down. If ISU forces Iowa into obvious passing downs they switch to a basic Nickel defense shifting starting corner Ter' Ran Benton inside over a slot and taking Mike Matt Tau 'fo 'ou off the field. The Clones didn't show an extensive pressure package versus NIU but you can bet it's coming Saturday. One thing worth noting was that if a DE was standing some sort of zone blitz was in the works. One last thing about their defense. They hustle. Every player runs until the whistle blows. Defensive tackles and ends are involved in tackles twenty yards down-field or way across the field. They are aggressive and might pick up some silly penalties but they are aggressive penalties.

Special teams seems to be a work in progress in Cyclone land. Placekicker Mahoney struggled with both his field goals and his kick off depth and the kick cover team was a little sluggish. Iowa State's only punt traveled 18 yards. Punt Returner Josh Lenz did a nice job of getting under the ball and showed a little flash on a short slant route. Kick returner and corner Leonard Johnson is a very dangerous returner. The other returner is freshman Shontrelle Johnson a tailback who showed a little shake on a catch out of the backfield.

The key match ups for Iowa in this game are as follows:
Micah Hyde versus Sedrick Johnson- Johnson is a big and physical wide out. He can adjust well to a poorly thrown ball and is big enough to win a designed fade or jump ball. ISU ran at least three designed Fades or back shoulder throws for him last week. Hyde needs be ready to be tested and respond to a physical challenge. Johnson isn't any tougher than DeMaryius Thomas and he played very well against him in limited PT in the Orange Bowl.
Arnaud versus Binns/ Ballard or Clayborn on the QB option keeper- if Parker has the backside DE stay home and defend the QB on this play they must stop or at least slow Arnaud. Austen is a load at 6'3 230 and he is shifty enough to usually make the first guy miss and fast enough to make plays with his feet. If these guys can make take away this part of the play than the rest of the defense can concentrate on Robinson. Last season Iowa used the outside linebackers as the contain on this play so it may be up to Hunter or Neilsen. Whomever has this assignment must own it.
Robinson, Alvarez, Lamaak, Hicks versus Klug, Ballard/ Daniels, Tarpinian, Hunter- Iowa needs to stop this play without getting a safety involved. Robinson hits hole quickly and he doesn't need a large crease to squirt through either. Last season Robinson made a living on this play versus the Hawks. Klug and Ballard are much better players than they were at this time last season and Daniels can rotate in with very little drop off. Tarp is better known for his pass cover ability but this could solidify him in the minds of Hawk fans if he were to rise up and stuff this play multiple times on Saturday. Hunter is a very instinctive run defender but he needs to stay home and kill any type of cutback to the weak side of the field.
Neilsen, Clayborn, Klug, Tarpinian versus Osmele, Alvarez, Lamaak, Franklin, Darks on edge runs- when ISU sees a numbers advantage to the wide side of the field and especially to the strong side of their line I think they will try to check into some type of run that attacks the edge. It is imperative that Tyler Neilsen defeats his blocks or at leasts sets the edge at or near the line of scrimmage and turns the run back inside. Clayborn and Klug should be able to win their match ups more often than not and Tarpinian needs to be shedding blocks and flowing downhill, too.
DJK, McNutt, Sandeman versus Benton, Young, Reeves- Benton is very aggressive and vulnerable to the deep ball and double moves. Both Young and Reeves gave a lot of cushion in limited PT versus NIU and Young should have given up a long TD on a straight post pattern. All three of these receivers are more talented and experienced than these corners that will be covering them. Leonard Johnson has a chance to match up but the other three do not consistently.
Reumpolhamer versus Gettis/ MacMillan or Vandervelde- Reumpolhamer was very active last Saturday. He generated a good push, was active with his hands and managed to find the ball while crashing the line. He was the one interior defensive lineman who generated a pass rush. MacMillan played well on Saturday but the staff has been very high on Gettis, if he is good to go on Saturday it is a good bet we will see him. Vandervelde also looked pretty good on Saturday. If he can remain healthy he should be Iowa's leader and possibly Iowa's most consistent lineman.

Part II will be the old version of the match ups syncing player versus player.

Iowa's New Buzzword Must Be Efficiency

2010-09-06T16:25:00.000-07:00

For the Hawkeyes to live up to expectations they must be much more efficient this season. There are a ton of ways for football teams to score points, and good Iowa teams score in all three phases, but the bulk must come from an effective and efficient offense. This post is going to concentrate on setting statistical benchmarks for this offense to achieve by looking back at the most successful Iowa offenses. Iowa is never going to land in the Top 10 rankings for scoring offense or total yardage but they don't need to. But for them to score around 28 to 30 points per game there are certain benchmarks that this team is capable of achieving. And 28 points a game coupled with this defense should be enough to scare any opponent.

The stats that I am going to focus on are going to be turnover margin, red zone attempts and TD percentage within that stat, Stanzi's completion percentage, and finally third down percentage. Turnover margin should be pretty self-explanatory, you hold on to the ball better than your opponent. It is possibly the only stat that I have ever heard Ferentz mention. Red zone attempts stress how well a team moves the ball over the course of a season, although some Iowa teams have scored well without a great attempts per game number. This season's team could be explosive enough to be that kind of offense. Stanzi's completion percentage for me is half about his decision making and half about the Hawkeye's improving their running game. If Iowa is a more balanced team than Stanzi should be a much more effective passer. And finally third down percentage is about keeping drives alive and giving a bunch of talented skill players a chance to make plays. Iowa was very effective on Saturday and it would be great if they could continue that throughout the season.

I will be begin with turnover margin. This doesn't seem to have a direct correlation with Iowa's highest scoring offenses although that doesn't seem to make sense. I am sure if Iowa cuts down their turnovers this season that they will score more points, however one of the Hawk's most successful offensive teams in the Ferentz actually had a negative turnover margin. However that team also had one of the fewest amount of total turnovers in the era, also. One problem with this stat is that it doesn't solely rely on the offense. I would say it is a safe bet to rely on the 2010 defense to force in the neighborhood of 30 takeaways. If Stanzi and company can just reduce their 2009 total of 28giveaways by 2/3rds I am sure that would lead directly to more Hawkeye points. If Stanzi were to reduce his pick 6s by 3 that would reduce the opponents total points by 21 (4 pick 6s last season). Here is a little chart showing the turnover margin of last season's team, the 2008, 2005, and 2003 along with their points per game.
Team    PPG         I Int.     I Fbl. I Tot.      Op Int. Op Fbl. Op Tot.   I. +/-
2009    23.2 20 8    28    21    9    30    2
2008      30.3           11         13        24              23          9            32            8
2005      30.0            8           9         17              10          6            16            -1
2003      28.7           10         11        21              13         12           25            4

Iowa's best offenses have been very efficient in the red zone scoring no less than 84.2%(2008) of the time they entered the opponents 20. They also managed to make their way quite often. 2005's team had the lowest attempts per game at 3.67 but that team also managed to score a lot of explosive type of TDs (16 TDs of 21 or more yards offensively) .    The best offenses also converted TDs when they got there- 2008's 56% was the worst. Last season's Iowa team struggled in almost all of these categories. Here is a chart on red zone scoring involving the same teams.
Team   Rz Att.   Rz TD   Rush TD Pass TD FG FG Miss Downs Int. Fbl. Half Game
2009    38 20    11 9    12    2 3 0 0 1    0
2008      57           32          25               7            16    4               3         1     1         0      0
2005      44           27          12              15           15      1               1         0     1         0      0
2003      55           32          17              15           16      1               0         1     1         4      0

The 2003 team scored as many TDs as the 2009 team scored in the red zone in one fewer game. The 2010 team has too much skill talent to repeat's 2009 red zone numbers.

Stanzi's completion percentage is probably the most debatable benchmark of the four I am laying out. Iowa's quarterbacks have not had to be high percentage passers to be effective during the Ferentz/ O'Keefe regime. Last season Ricky completed 56% of his passes but he had a very good average of 14.13 yards per completion. If he is able to bump his completion percentage into the low 60s, the trade-off of a lowered yard per completion would be well worth it. This lends itself into the decision making area and his progress in making better and faster reads within the offense. Forcing the ball down-field less and checking down more often will lead to more running room for Hampton and Robinson, and more manageable third downs the final benchmark.

The last stat up for debate here is third down percentage. Looking at the trends of college football the last few seasons one thing that is pretty obvious is that effective third down teams score points. The top scoring teams from last season also happen to litter the top ten ranking of third down conversion percentage. You can see the index(their Iowa stats didn't mesh with the Iowa Official Site, I am going with the Universities numbers for almost all of my info in this post) here. The outliers were Wisconsin, Penn State, and Washington. Wisconsin still finished in the top 21 percent of college scoring offenses with a healthy 31.3 points per game. Penn State averaged 28.7 ppg and Washington (26.7 ppg) fell out of the top half of scoring offenses still outperformed Iowa by 3.4 points per game and ranked ahead of Iowa by 22 ranking spots in that category. On the surface this stat may seem kind of silly- if the Hawks converted their third downs at a clip of 42% with the same number of attempts as last season it would only mean 9 more conversions on the season. Another way to look at it is Iowa averaged 5 out of 14 attempts per game. Converting at a clip of 42% would only net them a bump of 6 out of 14 attempts per game. But that is a potential big play on 27 more downs. It is time that your defense is off the field. It is changing field position. It is wearing out the opposing defense. Iowa's best offense of the years that I have discussed was the 2005 which operated at a 41.25% clip. The '08 team had a 40.88% third down rate. Last season's squad converted on 38.1% and they need to convert at least 40% to sniff the 30 points per game mark.

If Iowa's offense were to meet all of these stats that doesn't guarantee success but coupled with the defense that we all saw on Saturday this would surely lead to a pretty difficult team to defeat. An efficient offense with the play-makers on the outside and in the backfield that have the potential to score from anywhere on the field would certainly make for long nights for opposing defensive coordinators.

A Thumnail Sketch of the Eastern Illinois Panthers

2010-09-02T10:36:00.000-07:00

This won't be a full blown matchups article. I haven't been able to see as much of this team as I would like and they are playing many new faces. They are also playing a new offense transistioning to the "pistol" version of the shotgun style of the spread. This is similar to the offense that Indiana runs.

EIU comes into this game undermatched and they are already banged up coming out of fall camp. They are missing their most talented offensive player Mon Williams who is a Florida transfer. Brian Nielson of the Journal Gazette &Times Courier is reporting that the two returning starters from last season's o-line and a projected starter may miss this game here. Add to this that 10 Brandon Large will be making his first start at Qb for the Panthers running this system and his backups are untested in this system, Iowa's defense would seem to have every advantage heading into this game. If 61Willie Henderson (6'2 273 JR) projected at center and 76 Eric Zink (6'6 284 JR), projected at guard, are ruled out then EIU would be starting five new faces along the offensive line when they roll into Kinnick on Saturday to face Clayborn, Klug, Daniels, Ballard, and Daniel. That is tough sledding for any offensive line but may be overwhleming for a group that will have consist of mostly second and third year players with little game experience.

Tailback 2 Jimmy Potempa does have some experience but he was used more as a receiver last season. At the other skill spots EIU returns 4 Kenny Whittaker (29 rec 2 TD), 81 Chris Wright (21 rec 4 TD), 18 Charles Graves (24 rec 3 TD), 3 Lorence Ricks (19 rec 3 TD), and 22 Eric Lora (23 rec 2 TD) all at receiver. The tight ends will all be pretty inexperienced.

On defense the Panthers run a base 4-3. They return quite a bit of experience on this side of the ball. They seem to want to focus on stopping the run. An interview with Coach Spoo led me to believe that Iowa will see quite a few eight-man fronts and that Iowa's outside receiver's will have an opportunity to make a few plays. Here is a link to that interview.

EIU's defensive line bring's back one talented starter- 98 Perry Burge (6'2 234 JR). Last season he had 7 sacks and an additional 4.5 TFLs. He will be joined by three new starters who have some game experience. Burge is talented but undersized as is the other listed DE 32 Artavious Dowdell (6'2 236 SO) The top three DTs listed on the the depth chart have decent size. Iowa's o-line should be able to have some success establishing a push on the edge versus this d-line.

The Panther's return four experienced Linebackers, all three starters and a backup. Sam 'backer 56 Nick Nasti (6'1 237 SR) lead the unit last season with 83 tackles and was the only one to grab a pick. Will 8 Cory Leman (6'1 216) had 63 tackles and Mike 'backer 46 Gordy Kickles (6'0 219 JR) racked up 62 along with 4.5 TFLs. Backup 49 Sean Campell managed to get 41 tackles and 3.5 TFLs in limited action.

The Panthers possess a couple of good corners in 21 CJ James and 26 Rashad Haynes. James managed to pick off 5 passes last season while deflecting 4 more, while Haynes only had one interception he did deflect 11 other passes. The pair combined for 90 stops. They are joined in the backfield by 6 Carlos Reyna and 19 Nick Martinez who are first year starters but have seen some action. Look for Martinez to line up in the box or walk up on the strong side of Iowa's formations on the early downs. Reyna will have a lot on his plate on Saturday.

Kevin Cook is scheduled for double duty Saturday as both the punter and the placekicker. He handled the punting chores for the Panther's last season averaging 42.0 yards per punt but didn't attempt a kick last season.

Ultimately this game shouldn't be close. Iowa has too much depth for this team and Iowa is much, much more talented. I have already written why it won't be UNI again. I think it will be more like Ball State 2005.

The Ten Things I Would Like to See Saturday

2010-08-31T08:07:00.000-07:00

It is almost here. I am sure all Hawk fans have a few things they would like to see in Iowa City Saturday whether its on field performance or old friends at a comfortable tailgate spot. Here are the things I am hoping to see on September Fourth.

1. No serious injuries and a comfortable margin of victory.
2. I would like to see very little play-action passing by the first team versus this opponent. I understand it is a big part of the offense but I think that for Stanzi to progress he needs to grow as a pocket passer. It would be nice to see a lot of 3, 5 and 7 step drops to see how the line holds up and how Ricky goes through his progressions and if he is able to hit his check down. If Iowa is going to bring back the Jailbreak Screen they should run it two or three times in this game to get the timing down.
3. Assuming Robinson is healthy, he should get most of the reps with the first team. It would be nice to him try to gain a rhythm with the line and see if he can wear down a defense with his running style. Getting a chance to run several series in a row could help him understand where his running lanes are going to develop with this version of the Iowa line. A called misdirection running play involving the TB would also be nice.
4. The O-line needs to be dominant from the second series, if not before. A slow start is understandable as they could experience butterflies and will facing an opponent for the first time in some of their careers. But once they take the field for the second series on they need to assert themselves over a physically less talented group.
5. A focus on on interior running plays regardless of formation. Iowa needs to generate a push in the middle to make the stretch play effective. It can only make the play-action game more effective, also.
6. A defensive line rotation involving Mike Daniels and Lebron Daniel. Ballard can play the Left-side making room for Daniels and Daniel can play either end position giving the first team defense five guys for four spots in this game and keeping the D-line fresh for this game and for the season. An added benefit is that it is most likely that Daniels and Daniel will need to step into huge shoes next season and carry the D-line along-side Binns next season. This is something I would like to see every week.
7. Very little Nickel early to see how Tyler Nielson holds up in coverage. He has big shoes to fill in replacing probably the best cover linebacker in the Ferentz era in A.J. Edds. Nielson has the size and the athleticism to replace Edds, he just needs the experience. I would like to see the 2nd unit try to get three corners on the field as much as possible. They could use time and you can never have enough depth at that position.
8. Some time for Nick Nielson or Jordan Bernstine and Jack Swanson along with the first team defense. Give these guys some time to make adjustments and checks against an opponent. You can also protect Sash and Greenwood.
9. Touchbacks or at least excellent coverage from the kickoff units. No misses from the kicking game.
10. The 2nd unit with no less than 8:00 on the clock in the 3rd quarter.

Why EIU Won't be UNI All Over Again

2010-08-30T17:16:00.000-07:00

I am sure that not many Hawkeye fans have forgotten last season's dramatic win in the closing seconds consisting of two blocked field goals to escape UNI. I am also sure SECspn's Pat Forde is reluctant to let that hammer go. No matter the how convincingly the Hawkeyes win on Saturday I am sure all of the highlight shows will juxtapose Saturday's result with last season's nail-biter. One thing is certain and that this season's opener will be a little less dramatic and here are the reasons why.

UNI is an in-state opponent, and a high level FCS team. They have been consistently in the play-off hunt and the last three seasons they have been considered a threat to win the FCS championship, although last season the Iowa game may have been the highlight of their season. Much of their roster consists of Iowa kids who may feel overlooked and play with extra motivation feeling they deserved a chance to play at Iowa. They also get a good amount of talented transfers from FBS schools who wash out for one reason or another who may wish to play right away. They have had transfers from Iowa, ISU, and even USC. They are well coached and their staff is very familiar with the Iowa program making it sort of a mini version of the Iowa- ISU game.

Last season's UNI team was very veteran on Offense. Pat Grace fit the perfect profile of a QB to give an Iowa defense difficulty- smart, patient, mobile, and accurate. He took what the defense gave him and didn't try to force the ball down-field. He was able to make plays with his feet. He was willing to throw the ball away and play the field position game. His TD pass to the TE Mahaffey was a thing of beauty. UNI also returned basically four starting O-lineman last season. They had a very experienced receiving corps and were efficient enough to move the ball when they needed to at the end of the game.

Iowa's offensive line was also a mash unit heading into that game. Bulaga played, although he was injured throughout much of camp, Vandervelde did not play, Calloway also battled injuries during camp and was suspended. Iowa's starting Guards Gettis and Doering were pretty inconsistent in this game. A long TD strike that might have changed the momentum of the game and get the offense rolling was called back due to a holding call on Gettis. The line couldn't generate a consistent push against a stout UNI D-line featuring two returning starters and facing eight man fronts. And when they did create a seam the tailbacks didn't always find it.

This season's unit has been pretty settled since the spring. Although the Center position has been up for grabs between James Ferentz and Josh Koeppel, it seems like they have been splitting reps and the line has been relatively healthy for most of camp( I am aware of a report that Adam Gettis is possibly battling a high ankle sprain. Since I am writing this before Tuesday's press conference and I can't get verified info that he is out I will assume he will play some.) Even if Gettis is hurt he has had one career start and will be replaced by a player with one fewer career start, although many less snaps. The most important thing for this unit will be to play cohesively.

Iowa's D-line was a brand new unit. Clayborn and Ballard were returning starters but Ballard was playing his first game at Tackle, and Klug and Binns were making their first career starts. Only Clayborn was lining up in his accustomed spot. The defense as a whole suffered from poor tackling in the first half. Although we didn't know what we were missing in Prater at the time, Castillo also started opposite of Spievey and struggled towards the end of the game in coverage. That was a tough spot for a red-shirt freshman to be put in and I am sure he would do much better this season.

Although Iowa will be replacing a significant amount of starts in Angerer, Edds, and Spievey, the replacements are all battle- tested and have some time on the field already and have basically been groomed for their time. If Tarpinian is held out of this game, Davis is very capable of holding down the Mike. Hunter is ready to step into a leadership position and Tyler Neilsen has been personally groomed at Leo by Edd's for his first three season's on campus. Micah Hyde, Willie Lowe, Jordan Bernstine and Greg Castillo have all played plenty of snaps and are capable of playing in this game while Prater gets healthy. It doesn't hurt to have a four year starter in Greenwood and three year starter and potential consensus All- American in Tyler Sash erasing mistakes.

Also the receiving corps for Iowa was a bit of an unknown heading into that game. DJK was reportedly in the doghouse and battling early season injuries, Sandeman was battling injuries, nobody knew if McNutt was for real, and Stanzi seemed to only trust Moeaki. Tony had 10 catches and I think 14 targets out of 34 pass attempts. Half of the passes completed went to Moeaki.

Iowa should come into this game at full strength with a very deep and veteran depth chart. DJK, McNutt, Sandeman, Keenan Davis, Paul Chaney, and Don Nordmann have all shown themselves to be capable. It will be interesting to see if Jordan Cotton or true frosh Kevonte Martin- Manley make a dent in the regular rotation. Allen Reisner is very steady at Tight End and Brad Herman looks to hold off talented freshman C.J. Fiedorowicz.

EIU is a pretty good FCS school but not quite to the level of UNI and they do not have nearly the level of returning experience that last season's UNI team possessed. They reportedly will be without there best player in former Gator Mon Williams, a Tailback and will be starting a sophmore Juco transfer Brandon Large at QB. They have two returning starters on the offensive line but one is transitioning to center. They don't have a lot of upperclassmen on their roster. Their defense possesses several starters returning, including a couple of good corners and their entire linebacking corps, however their front seven is pretty undersized and Iowa should be able to run the ball pretty easily on this team.

Position Battles: Tailback

2010-06-15T15:56:00.000-07:00

The Tailback at Iowa is usually the only ball carrier. There are obviously exceptions such as Brad Banks in 2002 and the great injury plague of 2004, but generally the Tailback is going to “carry the mail.” The characteristics the coaching staff seems to favor in a ball carrier are patience and setting up blocks, choosing the correct running lane, and ball security. Of course there is much more than running the ball to gain playing time in Iowa’s offense. Pass protection is a key ability- understanding it and performing it well is a quick way to early playing time. Blitz pick-up will be especially important with a relatively inexperienced offensive line this season. Finally the screen game and being an outlet in the passing game are nice abilities to have but not absolutely essential (see Greene, Shonn). In 2008 Iowa’s TBs were rarely used in the passing game, but last season Robinson and Wegher combined for 23 catches and often motioned into the slot. I would look for that number to increase.

The candidates: I am going to put these guys in the order I expect them to end up with regarding carries. The exception will be Paki O’Meara, who will be listed last. He may get more carries then the freshman but I am listing him last because I think the staff would prefer to Red-shirt the freshman if it is possible, in order to stagger the classes a little bit.

Jewel Hampton R. So. 5’9 210 * 2008 91att. 463yds 7td 5.1ypa. 23KR 23.3avg.

Hampton had set the standard for true freshman backs backing up Shonn Greene in ’08 before the Duo of Robinson and Wegher last season. A slasher who improved steadily over the course of the ’08 season really showed some patience, suprising physicality, and a nice 2nd gear in the open field. A knee injury ended his season in preseason camp last year. He looked very good in 7 on 7 drills in the spring event. He reportedly participated in most of the spring practices and should be 100% healthy for the fall camp. Could be the most well rounded back on the roster. I expect him to be the lead back on the team this season.

Adam Robinson R. So 5’9 205 2009 181att 834yds 5td 4.6ypa 10rec 80yds 0td 2KR 19avg

Robinson was the more steady of the two freshman pressed into action last season. Seemed to be more willing to run for the tough inside yards. Made better decisions when choosing his running lanes, runs very low to the ground, able to break arm tackles. Didn’t run away from anyone and didn’t threaten the edge often which was sort of a surprise to me because he was known as a speed guy. (I wonder if both he and Wegher were so worried about holding onto the ball if they sacrificed speed for ball security). Pretty steady catching the ball, very good pass blocker and very willing to hit someone. Very comfortable catching the ball away from his frame.

Brandon Wegher So 5’11 206 162att 641yds 8td 13rec 112yds 0td 9KR 23.8avg

The more flashy of the duo really settled in at the end of the season. He didn’t produce as many big plays as expected but was much more effective in the red zone than I expected. Fearless and not afraid of contact, very willing pass blocker, very good receiver, excellent route runner, great change of direction, can set guys up with or without the ball. Speedy and agile. You could sometimes see him thinking with the ball in his hands. Early in the season tried to press everything outside, but his vision and patience improved as the season progressed. Showed a lot of toughness playing through severe rib injury. Should have the inside track as primary Kick Returner and could be in the mix as a Punt Returner.

Brad Rogers R.Fr 5’10 215 No Statistics

Rogers was the feature back during the spring scrimmage with the top three nursing injuries and being held out of the competition for preventative measures. I would guess that he may be larger than his listed weight and he carries it well. He runs with a very nice body lean, and showed some nifty moves at or near the line of scrimmage. He showed a nice burst, but may lack a top gear right now. He is still learning on the job and could use a little patience running behind this scheme but overall shows a lot of potential and is a very nice change of pace compared to the rest of his running mates listed above. I thought he did an adequate job in pass protection and didn’t note him targeted with a pass in the scrimmage. I am really hoping he gets some time in this season so we get a better look at him.

Marcus Coker T.Fr 6’0 230 No Statistics

Coker fits the Shonn Greene mold, a power back looking to batter through tackles, who also has a little scoot to his game. He averaged over 10 yards per carry his Junior and Senior campaigns and scored 23 TDs his senior year alone. He was also a captain of his team his last two years. I think it would be the preference of the coaching staff to Red- shirt him in order to put a two year gap between him and the top three tailbacks but if injuries strike and he is good enough it wouldn’t shock me to see him on the field at some point this season.

Paki O’Meara R.Sr 5’11 211 16att 35yds 0td 1rec 14yds

Paki may be a factor this season because of his experience, attitude and ability to catch passes and block. But so far he hasn’t looked very natural or explosive running the ball. He may have the vision to see the holes developing but he hasn’t shown the burst to get to the hole before it closes up. He is a very good special teams player and will be a factor on this teams’ success. I just don’t see it as a primary option at Tailback.

De’Andre Johnson T.Fr 5’8 210 No Statistics

Johnson was a highly recruited player before a knee injury ruined his Senior season. Iowa stuck with him and gained his services. I don’t expect to see him this season as he could use the Red-shirt year to stagger, along with another year to strengthen his knee.

*Jason White R. So No Statistics

I expect White to play defensive back. He played running back during the spring scrimmage as much for lack of bodies at the position as for any grand plan to keep him there. He should have a bright future at Safety and should be in the mix in the battle to replace Brett Greenwood after 2011. I am making this assumption because he played both DB and TB during the spring, he is wearing #14 (also John Wienke’s number) and Iowa is legitimately deep at this position right now. He is a good enough football player that he can help us at Saftey. He will be a special teams contributor this season.

Early Breakout Players

2010-06-15T15:51:00.001-07:00

I am going to take a stab at breakout players at almost every position. I am going to exclude QB,FB, PK, Punter and the returners. Some of these guys are pretty obvious candidates and some of them are not. The beauty of Iowa football is that someone always rises from nowhere to take a prominent role.

Tailback- Brandon Wegher: I am not necessarily expecting Brandon to “carry the mail”, so to speak, but I am expecting him to be the big play threat at this position. I think he can make the “game changing” plays for Iowa this season as a runner, receiver, and returner. I also expect him to challenge to maintain his role as the TD leader at the running back position. He should make the traditional leap from year one to year two in which the game slows down and a player is more physically mature.

Wide Receiver- Keenan Davis: Could emerge as the natural replacement for Trey Stross. Has a ton of natural ability, great size and a full year under his belt to adjust for the speed of the game. He is another player who may get a shot to impact on the return side of the game. He must have the coaches’ confidence as he was learning multiple spots in the offense during the spring.

Tight End- Brad Herman: based on his performance last season and his effort in the spring drills and scrimmage I am expecting Herman to hold off Super Frosh CJ Fiedorowicz and maintain most of the reps as the number two TE, which is basically a starter in Iowa’s offense. Herman is a very fluid athlete who looks very natural catching the ball, and seems to be a match-up nightmare for linebackers. He is not known for his blocking and was replaced often last season in favor of Andy Keumpal. However he looked fairly physical in the spring drills and hasn’t had the benefit of a red-shirt year. Entering his third year on campus I think he will have a very solid season.

Offensive Line- Adam Gettis: Gettis was going to be my pick last season but I never got the article written. Gettis started the UNI game and was basically the seventh o-lineman last season following the UNI game. He has consistently been singled out by the coaching staff for praise and is entering his fourth year on campus. When he was in the game he acquitted himself fairly well. He is very athletic and was a little raw with some of his technique last season going against a veteran UNI d-line in his solitary start. But with another year under his belt I am betting he will transition into a starting role and excel.

Defensive Line- Mike Daniels: Kind of tough to break through when you rarely see the field but Daniels was a difference maker last season when he did get reps (see Wisconsin), whether it was on goal-line formations or giving Klug or Ballard a breather. The coaching staff has referred to him as a “fifth starter” and so hopefully that will lead to more reps for him this season which would benefit all involved. Daniels has all of the tools to be a very good player in Iowa’s system and can step in at either spot.

Linebacker- Jeff Tarpinian: the leader in the clubhouse to replace Pat Angerer after the Spring, I expect him to hold on to the job and excel. Tarp is a very good cover linebacker and surprised me with his run recognition and speed to the ball carrier from the Mike spot during the spring drills. He has excellent size and did a nice job of sorting through traffic. He also has the speed to make a false step and recover. It will be interesting to see if he can remain healthy all camp and hold on to the job.

Defensive Back- Jordan Bernstine: Micah Hyde is the leader on the depth chart right now. And in my spring report I wrote that I also thought that Willie Lowe was ahead of him. I still think that Bernstine has the most raw talent of any corner and possibly any defensive back on the roster. If he can stay healthy I think it will be hard to keep him off the one line by the time EIU comes to Kinnick. His sophomore year he was amongst the most physical special teamers and blanketed receivers as a slot defender on nickel and dime packages. His size/speed combo is rare at Iowa and teaming him with Prater would give Iowa the most physical set of corners in the Big Ten. That isn’t to diminish Hyde or Lowe, I don’t think Iowa loses in any of these scenarios. I just think that Bernstine is the most physically gifted option on the team and he will end up as the starter by the beginning of the season.

A Way Too Early Look At Iowa's Pro Prospects for the 2011 Draft

2010-06-15T15:49:00.000-07:00

Iowa will have seventeen Seniors who have a chance to make NFL rosters after the upcoming 2010 season. I feel that there are three categories of players- locks to be drafted, players who may get a long hard look and be late rounders and at worst free agent pick-ups, and long shots. Iowa also has four Juniors and a Redshirt Sophomore who could consider throwing their name into the ring. For the lock category I have: Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Jeremiha Hunter, Ricky Stanzi, Ryan Donahue, and Allen Reisner. The maybe category includes: Jeff Tarpinian, Karl Klug, Brett Greenwood, Brett Morse, and Julian Vandervelde. The long shots would include: Colin Sandeman, Don Nordmann, Troy Johnson, Josh Koeppel and Kyle Haganman. The underclassmen would consist of Juniors Tyler Sash, Broderick Binns, Marvin McNutt, Shaun Prater and Sophomore Riley Reiff. I think it is unlikely that any of the underclassmen leave early this season as I don’t think any would be high enough of a pick to make it financially imperative to leave and I think that a NFL rookie cap is coming if a labor agreement is reached. I think the days of 45 to 60 early entrants to the NFL are over.

Adrian Clayborn RDE 6’4 285 SR: Already on most every preseason publications’ All-American list and a consensus first round draft selection for next season. Can play DE in either a 3-4 or a 4-3. Can play all 3 downs in the NFL, is equally effective vs. the run or the pass. Has a medical issue that could scare some teams. Games scouts will be watching 9/11 vs. ISU, 10/ vs. Wisconsin, 11/13 vs. Northwestern, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: Pick 8-15 to a 3-4 team.

Christian Ballard DT 6’5 297 SR: Underrated in most preseason magazines, only Phil Steele is giving him attention. Was just learning DT position last season. Really came on strong late in the year. A natural “3” in a 4-3 and has the size and length to play “5” in a 3-4. Great first step and very good motor, great athleticism and very good speed to pursue plays away from him. Games Scouts will be watching 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/16 vs. Michigan, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: With a really good season I think he could be a late First rounder, but is more likely a mid to late second round selection.

Derrell Johnson-Koulianos WR 6’1 200 SR: Again another underrated Hawkeye, 3rd team Athlon, and 2nd team Phil Steele, is also Wes Bunting’s 5th rated Senior WR. A good athlete and a polished route runner. Slippery with the ball on his hands. Will leave Iowa as career leader in receptions and yardage. Plays his best in biggest games. Plays hurt and has leadership potential, seems to be well liked by teammates. Could have potential as a returner. Biggest flaw may be effort in blocking consistency. I think this has improved. Games scouts will be watching 9/18 Arizona, 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/30 vs. Michigan State, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: With a full season of health I think DJK has the potential to put up numbers like Iowa fans are not accustomed to- 70+ catches, 1000 yards and 10+ TDs, With a running mate like McNutt opposing secondary’s will not be able to roll coverage to him and he as the ability to beat any corner he will face this season. I project him to be a late 2nd to middle 3rd round selection.

Jeremiha Hunter WLB 6’2 235 SR: 2nd team Athlon and 2nd team Phil Steele. A box linebacker who is at his best playing downhill against the run. Knows his assignments and plays them well. Improved his pass coverage last season which is his perceived knock. Very physical and can be a punishing tackler. May be a natural ILB in a 3-4 scheme. If he takes another leap like last season in his pass cover skills could really improve his draft stock. Games scouts will be watching 9/11 vs. ISU, 10/16 vs. Michigan, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I think Hunter could project well in either scheme being played in the NFL and with the comments by the coaching staff following spring drills I expect a big season for him. I project him to go in the middle 3rd to middle 4th round.

Ricky Stanzi QB 6’4 230 SR: Phil Steele 2nd team and #11 overall QB. Has the physical tools and the size NFL teams covet. Great pocket awareness and very athletic for his size. I am sure he is taller than his listed size. I am not one that questions his arm strength, when his mechanics are right he can sling it with anyone. Exhibits great touch on intermediate and deep throws, could anticipate throws sooner and look off coverage better. Decision making and accuracy are sometimes issues. Great intangibles. Games scouts will be watching 9/18 vs. Arizona, 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I know I am biased, but I project him in the 2nd to 3rd round. Most of this hinges on Iowa’s success this season, but Stanzi does a lot of things right. If he can improve on a lot of his decision making and detail type of issues I can easily see him rising to the top of the second tier of QBs in the 2011 draft class.

Ryan Donahue P 6’3 190 SR: Has a huge leg but doesn’t often get a chance to show it because of the conservative nature of Iowa’s coaching staff. He might lead the nation in number of punts attempted inside the opponents 40. Rarely outkicks his coverage. Puts great hang-time on his punts. Is also a very athletic player at the position. Very good at deadening the ball inside the 20.

Spud’s spin: Donahue may be the only punter taken in this draft. The punter from UCLA has similar stats and I haven’t seen him play so I will hold off on that assessment for now. Punters generally aren’t taken high so I will project him to go middle 5th to late 6th. I think his value to a team could be higher than that.

Allen Reisner TE 6’3 248 SR: Reisner finally escapes the shadow of Tony Moeaki. Very steady performer in both phases of the game, excellent route runner, understands where holes are in zone coverages and sits in them. Great hands, good after the catch, very athletic- comparable to Brandon Myers. Is an above average blocker, doesn’t get the credit he deserves in this phase of the game. Probably will be viewed strictly as an “H” in the next level but I believe he could play on the line of scrimmage. Games scouts will be watching 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/30 vs. Michigan State, 11/13 vs. Northwestern, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: If you start at tight end at Iowa under Kirk Ferentz you get drafted. Those are the facts-Austin Wheatley, Dallas Clark, Erik Jensen, Tony Jackson, Scott Chandler, Brandon Myers, and Tony Moeaki are the seven starters since 2000 and all have heard their name called on draft day. Reisner has a lot of game experience filling in for the oft- injured Moeaki and has played both the “Y” and the “H” spots very well his last two seasons. I see Reisner as my last “lock” going somewhere in the 6th round and possibly higher.

Karl Klug DT 6’3 270 SR: Phil Steele 2nd team, Lindy’s 2nd team, Athlon 1st team. This is where it gets hard for me. To me his is Mitch King only 3 inches taller. Ferocious motor, incredible off the snap, great with his hands, very good at pursing plays away from him. May get downgraded in some scouts’ eyes for playing between Clayborn and Ballard. The questions I have for NFL people are do you project him at DT or DE in a 4-3 or DE in a 3-4? Does Klug keep his weight up during the season, if he enters the season at 270 does he end it at 258? Games scouts will be watcing ISU 9/11, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/13 vs. Northwestern, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I am going to project Klug going in the 5th to 7th round, but It is possible he could go undrafted. I do see him being at least a priority free agent.

Jeff Tarpinian MLB 6’3 238 SR: Phil Steel 3rd team. Tarpinian enters his fifth year with his first chance to start. He is very fast, very good in zone coverage and very good in one on one coverage. He has spent most of his time playing outside linebacker in Iowa’s 3-4 packages or as a SLB in the Nickel. He subbed for Hunter as the WLB vs. OSU and struggled a bit in run support. He looked very good in the spring game sifting through traffic and filling his hole. He was taking good angles to the ball. This may be his biggest question mark heading into the season, how will he stand up to power running games in the Big Ten? Does he have the strength and technique to shed lineman and make a play on the ballcarrier against power football? Can he sift through traffic and get to the ball carrier close to the line of scrimmage? Games scouts will be watching 10/2 vs. Penn State, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 10/30 vs. Michigan State, 11/20 vs. Ohio State.

Spud’s Spin: I am a big believer in Tarp. He has really flashed to me at times in his Iowa career. A lot of people forget he entered the OSU game playing on a bad wheel. I think he will have a senior year to remember if he can remain healthy. He is very strong in coverage and should project well to the next level as a special teamer and a cover linebacker at least. I will project him as a 6th round to 7th selection with it more likely he will be a priority free agent.

Brett Greenwood FS 6’0 200 SR: Athlon 1st team, Lindy’s 2nd team, Phil Steele 2nd team. I can’t think of a player who has improved more over the course of his career at Iowa more than Greenwood. Physically he has improved his speed and physicality. He has good instincts and is a very intelligent player. He isn’t always the prettiest tackler but almost always gets the job done. Could make a living as a special teamer and back-up for a Cover 2 team. Games scouts will be watching 9/18 vs. Arizona, 9/16 vs. Michigan, 9/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/20 vs. Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I project Greenwood to get drafted in the 6th to 7th round by a team like Indianapolis, or Chicago that needs safety depth and special teams help and runs the Cover 2. I think if a team that fits that profile has multiple late round picks it helps his chances. If he goes undrafted I am sure he will be a priority free agent. With a special season I would be willing to move him into my lock list.

Julian Vandervelde G 6’3 300 SR: No preseason lists that I could find. Vandervelde has fought nagging injuries throughout his career. Pretty good with his hands, good bender, not always explosive off the snap, can struggle identifying blitzers in pass protection, very good on the move. Sometimes plays too high initially and doesn’t always recover well if beaten initially. Has the more games started than rest of Iowa’s offensive line combined. If he remains healthy I think he will play with more consistency and team with Reiff to form a solid wall on the left side. It will help him to stay at one position (strictly Left Guard). May be the smartest player on the team and is surely the best singer. Games scouts will be watching 10/2 Penn State, 10/16 Michigan, 10/30 Michigan State, 11/20 Ohio State

Spud’s Spin: I am going to project Vandervelde to go undrafted but I do think he should be a priority free agent and should have a future with NFL teams possibly as a developmental center for teams running zone schemes. I think he could have a very good season and rise onto some teams draft boards, the key for him will be health and pass protection.

Colin Sandeman WR 6’1 200 SR: No preseason lists. Sandeman is the first of the long-shots. In Iowa’s scheme it is tough for a player like him to put up the kind of stats to have a breakthrough season to draw attention. Sandeman is a decent returner who is pretty shifty but sometimes struggles with his decision making on when to catch the punt. He is a reliable receiver who rarely drops a pass, but has put the ball on the ground in big spots. He is coming off his best game as a pass catcher in the Orange Bowl. He is unquestionably the Hawk’s best blocker at the position and always in the game when Iowa is looking to salt the game away by pounding the ball. He possesses above average hands, good lateral quickness, great football IQ, and extreme toughness. He has struggled to stay on the field with multiple injuries. I don’t think he will get a combine invite. Iowa has a lot of receptions and yards to replace and he will be in the mix to replace them.

Spud’s Spin: I think Sandeman will have to go the try-out route. I think his best bet is to go to WR and special team starved teams and make an impression. He could also play in lesser leagues like the CFL, Arena or the UFL.

Don Nordmann 6’6 211 WR SR: Very good size, got some decent playing time last season, was the start of the spring scrimmage, is a very good blocker. Has above average hands. I am not sure if he has the agility to separate from defensive backs or if he can only use his frame to win. Haven’t seen enough of him to see what kind of a route runner he is.

Spud’s Spin: If he gets enough PT this season he has the size to at least get a try-out from a team lacking a size receiver. He could be a red-zone target specialist and special teamer.

Troy Johnson 6’2 235 LB SR: Athletic and smart enough to play all three spots for Iowa. Known best for coming in as the third teamer vs. Minnesota and winning DBTOW. Good speed, good recognition, good depth on zone drops. Not extremely physical, more of a drag-down tackler, needs to win a job to get more film for teams to evaluate him. Very good special teams player.

Spud’s Spin: If Johnson can beat out either Tarp or Bruce Davis for the Mike spot or Tyler Neilsen for the Leo he could sneak on to a team’s draft board but I think it is unlikely for this to happen. He could shine enough at Iowa’s pro day and on film for him to get try-outs with NFL teams’ and possibly stick after the Draft.

Josh Koeppel 6’2 273 C SR: Koeppel needs to beat out James Ferentz for the center job and then excel ala Rob Bruggeman, who went undrafted to have a chance. Koeppel has game experience but has never been the “man” . He would be undersized for an NFL center and he would have to have a dominating season to attract notice in his one year as a starter.

Spud’s Spin: I think it is unlikely that Koeppel will be on many teams boards entering the season. He has to beat out Ferentz first to even make this a possibility and then remain healthy which has been a big obstacle for him throughout his Iowa career. It is possible for him to do, just unlikely.

Kyle Haganman 6’5 285 T/G SR: Haganman has yet to start a game and has only played in 11 games in his 3 years. Most of that is mop up duty. He was mentioned as a riser in the ’09 spring practice but has yet to really make a serious run a playing time. This is his last chance to win a job and I expect him to be in the mix for the Right Tackle and Right Guard in the Fall camp. If he doesn’t see significant PT he won’t get an opportunity. I honestly don’t know enough about him to say anything about him.

Spud’s Spin: I don’t expect him to crack the starting line up so I don’t foresee a future in professional football for Kyle.

The Underclassmen: A note I don’t think any of these guys are going anywhere. This is just in case.

Tyler Sash SS 6’1 210 JR: Extremely assignment sound, very instinctive, takes very good angles to the ball, very solid in run support, not a punishing tackler, more of a drag down or cut tackler, able to break down in space- very agile. Most evaluators don’t think Sash is fast but I think this is typical undervaluing an Iowa player’s athleticism because he is so well coached.

Spud’s Spin: If he were to leave I project him to go no later than the 2nd round. I think the 2nd is where he lands regardless of whether he is drafted in 2011 or 2012.

Marvin McNutt WR 6’4 215 JR: Uses his size extremely well like the basketball player that he was, very agile for his size, great hands, plays receiver like the quarterback that he was adeptly reading coverage and settling in open spots in zones, able to high point the ball on fade routes, very good with the ball in his hands, still learning the position- his best days are ahead of him. Won’t run an elite time on a 40 and sometimes struggled with press coverage.

Spud’s Spin: This is a loaded receiver draft class and again I would be shocked if McNutt left, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he went much higher than Hawk fans expect. Being a former QB McNutt should excel in the interview process, he is very good after the catch and will probably be the primary Red Zone weapon on a team that is primed to score a lot of points. I would project him no worse than the 3rd round and possibly higher. I think he should come back if that is his projection.

Broderick Binns 6’2 261 DE JR: 7’ Wingspan- 9 Passes defended last season 12th in the Big Ten last season and tied for 3rd in just passes broken up. Binns will be entering his second year as a starter and will probably make the leap that Clayborn made last season. He is probably Iowa’s best pure pass rusher. He could be stronger at the point of attack vs. the run, he can be washed out by tackles and bigger tight ends, rarely takes a bad angle to the QB, great motor and is very fast for the position. Should be stronger this season. May be locked into a 4-3 with his height but his arm length should negate that stereotype.

Spud’s Spin: If there is a position that is deeper than receiver, than it is end in the 2011 draft. Binns could put up monster numbers this season and not even make All Big Ten. I would project him no lower than 2nd round however if he were to leave. If he stays he should be a solid projected 1st round selection in ’12.

Shaun Prater 5’11 180 CB JR: Prater is entering his second year as a starter and his third year as a significant contributor to the defense. He was a surprise as a freshman to win a spot on the nickel and dime packages and played very well. Last season he played extremely well opposite of Amari Spievey. He is a very good pass defender, he possesses very good closing speed, reads routes well, has very good balance, is comfortable in press coverage, is a very good leaper, he isn’t the most physical corner- he could improve his tackling but he is a true junior. He has been raved about this spring by coaches and teammates.

Spud’s Spin: I think it is unlikely that Shaun would leave early. I think he could use the fourth year to work on technique and strength. He is still pretty skinny and seeing Spievey go in the third round might influence him to finish his eligibility.

Riley Reiff 6’6 300 LT SO: Reiff has already taken his red- shirt so he is technically draft eligible after this season. I wouldn’t normally even include him but he was so outstanding last season he deserves a mention. Reiff actually outperformed Bulaga on the field at Left Tackle last season. Of course Bulaga was never really in prime football shape but still that is saying something for a kid thrown into the fire as a red shirt freshman. “The Next One” will have his hands full versus elite ends Cameron Heyward, Ricky Elmore, and Jack Crawford. If he holds up and dominates in the run game the lack of top end talent at this position could have NFL people in his ear.

Spud’s Spin: I think the odd’s of a R. Sophomore leaving Iowa under Ferentz’s tenure are 10,000 to 1. However if Vegas gave me those odds I might throw $50 down on this kid’s talent. If he were to leave I would project him into the 1st round if he performed as well as last season.

Where does Kyle Calloway fit in on the Bills

2010-04-24T13:07:00.000-07:00

Calloway could come in and compete right away for a starting spot. Buffalo has only 3 guards listed on its active roster and he is the first lineman drafted so far in 2010. Buffalo really struggled with pass protection last season and Calloway is big and strong enough to come in and anchor against interior d-lineman. He could possibly kick out to right tackle for this team but I think it is unlikely. He may be the most physical run blocker already on this team. It wouldn't shock me to see a lineup of Lt Chambers, LG Levitre, C Wood, RG Calloway, RT Meredith. I would imagine he will be the suprise of their pre-season camp. Here is a list of there lineman (excluding centers) currently on their roster:
77 Bell, Demetrius T ACT 6'5" 307 5/3/1984 3 Northwestern State-Louisiana

Chambers, Kirk T ACT 6'7" 315 3/19/1979 6 Stanford

Green, Cornell T ACT 6'6" 315 8/25/1976 12 Central Florida

74 Hennessey, Nick T ACT 6'5" 291 7/2/1986 1 Colgate

69 Meredith, Jamon T ACT 6'5" 304 5/11/1986 2 South Carolina

75 Ramsey, Andre T ACT 6'5" 322 7/24/1987 1 Ball State

Watkins, Jason T ACT 6'6" 325 6/10/1985 1 Florida

67 Levitre, Andy G ACT 6'2" 305 5/15/1986 2 Oregon State

70 Wood, Eric G ACT 6'4" 315 3/18/1986 2 Louisville

61 Gaddis, Christian OG ACT 6'1" 300 10/5/1984 3 Villanova

Where does Edds fit on the Dolphins

2010-04-24T09:36:00.000-07:00

AJ Edds could play any of the 4 LB positions
Miami but I don't expect him to come in and start right away. I think he will play inside initially for this team and be a special teamer to start. He will need some time to learn to rush the passer. He could be win a spot as a Nickel and Dime LB as he is so good in Coverage but I expect Dansby to be on the field for some of those packages. Miami has lost 3 of last seasons starters at this position. Here are the linebackers currently on their roster:
Dansby, Karlos LB ACT 6'4" 250 11/3/1981 7 Auburn

59 Folsom, J.D. LB ACT 6'3" 230 8/19/1984 1 Weber State

93 Moses, Quentin LB ACT 6'5" 260 11/18/1983 4 Georgia

91 Wake, Cameron LB ACT 6'3" 250 1/30/1982 2 Penn State

50 Walden, Erik LB ACT 6'2" 250 8/21/1985 3 Middle Tennessee State

52 Crowder, Channing ILB ACT 6'2" 250 12/2/1983 6 Florida

53 Torbor, Reggie ILB ACT 6'2" 250 1/25/1981 7 Auburn

56 Anderson, Charlie OLB ACT 6'4" 250 12/8/1981 7 Mississippi

Rd 2, Pick 8 (40) Misi, Koa DE

Where Does Bulaga fit in with the Packers

2010-04-23T19:54:00.000-07:00

Bulaga will start somewhere on this line. I just am not sure if it will be at one of the guard slots or at Right Tackle initially. I have read varying reports of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher's ability to continue to play. Idealy for both Bryan and the Pack he would be able to begin at one of the guard positions and learn from one of the vets. Green Bay has drafted a tackle 2 out of the last three drafts and could leave Bulaga at guard permanently. I am not seeing Daryn Colledge on their Roster but I am pretty sure he should be on there. Here is the rest of the lineman (not including centers) on the official roster:
78 Barbre, Allen T ACT 6'4" 305 6/22/1984 4 Missouri Southern State

76 Clifton, Chad T ACT 6'5" 320 6/26/1976 11 Tennessee

68 Giacomini, Breno T ACT 6'7" 311 9/27/1985 3 Louisville

70 Lang, T.J. T ACT 6'4" 316 9/20/1987 2 Eastern Michigan

65 Tauscher, Mark T ACT 6'3" 316 6/17/1977 11 Wisconsin

Daniels, Stanley G ACT 6'4" 320 11/30/1984 1 Washington

62 Dietrich-Smith, Evan G ACT 6'2" 305 7/19/1986 2 Idaho State

71 Sitton, Josh G ACT 6'3" 322 6/6/1986 3 Central Florida

Where does Pat Angerer fit with the Colts

2010-04-23T19:45:00.000-07:00

Angerer most likely will be a backup and special teamer for the Colts this season. He could compete for the Will job with Clint Session initally while being groomed to eventually succeed Gary Brackett at the Mike position. He could have been drafted to play the Will also. If he doesn't win the job he would be a star on special teams. I am suprised he went this high but very happy and would like to point out there is a reason the same teams always seem to be drafting at the bottom of the draft. Indy almost never misses. This is another perfect scheme fit. He could play 2 positions for this team and replace Brackett on third downs.
Here is a list of the linebackers on the Colt's roster:
52 Glenn, Cody LB ACT 6'0" 240 10/6/1986 2 Nebraska

Renkart, Brandon LB ACT 6'2" 245 12/29/1984 1 Rutgers

58 Brackett, Gary MLB ACT 5'11" 235 5/23/1980 8 Rutgers

59 Humber, Ramon OLB ACT 5'11" 232 8/10/1987 2 North Dakota State

55 Session, Clint OLB ACT 6'0" 235 9/22/1984 4 Pittsburgh

50 Wheeler, Philip OLB ACT 6'2" 240 12/12/1984 3 Georgia Tech

Where does Tony Moeaki fit with the Chiefs

2010-04-23T19:31:00.000-07:00

Tony Moeaki could step in and start immediately for the Chiefs. He may already be the best pass catcher on the roster. He could be the best athlete at the position currently on their roster right now. Leonard Pope from Georgia has been underwhelming so far in his career but has great size. At worst he would seem to be the ideal H back for this team. Here are the tight ends currently listed on Kansas City's roster
:87 Cottam, Brad TE ACT 6'7" 269 11/28/1984 3 Tennessee

85 O'Connell, Jake TE ACT 6'3" 250 11/6/1985 2 Miami (Ohio)

45 Pope, Leonard TE ACT 6'8" 264 9/10/1983 5 Georgia

How Spievey Fits with the Lions

2010-04-23T19:24:00.000-07:00

Amari could step in as a starter immediately. He will compete for playing time with off-season aquisitions Chris Houston and Jonathon Wade and incumbent DeAngelo Smith for a starting spot or at least a nickel role. He will also most likely see time on most coverage units. This is a very good situation for him to step into as Detroit runs a very similar scheme to Iowa and he won't be asked to do things that are unfamiliar to him. He should be playing to his strengths plus Detroit has really improved its pass rush with the addition of Kyle Vandenbosch and Ndamukong Suh.

Where the Hawks Will Land

2010-04-18T18:25:00.000-07:00

I am going to try to do a little pre-draft forecasting here and predict where I think this year’s eligible Hawkeye draftees will end up and what teams are likely looking hard at them. I think that a minimum of 6 Hawks will be drafted. Bryan Bulaga, Amari Spievey, A.J. Edds, Tony Moeaki, Kyle Calloway, and Pat Angerer are pretty sure to be drafted. I think it is possible for a team to draft Dace Richardson but that it is more likely for him to go the free agent route. Lastly I think that Rafael Eubanks will land in a camp after the draft. I think it is possible for Andy Keumpal, Dan Doering and Trey Stross to get try-outs and land Free- agent contracts.

With the adjustment to the schedule of the draft, turning it into two night and third day event, I believe that the value of certain picks will have changed and that there could be a lot of trading of picks. I think that the league would prefer less trading during the first night to shorten the night, but they did shorten the time each pick would take by 5 minutes. I think that the value of the late picks may be higher than ever as teams realize that there will be a huge break to re-evaluate their boards and if they think they have a steal they may be more willing to trade up to grab a player late in the first round, I think this also applies to the end of the third round and the beginning of the second. However with the New Day Two teams will have time make the trades off camera.

Teams who could be the center of trading picks- New England, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. Teams looking to trade down or get more picks- Miami (down), Jacksonville (down), Carolina, Chicago, and Washington. Washington and Buffalo may be looking to unload players who no longer fit their defensive scheme along with a stray back-up QB.

Bulaga- First Round; fits any scheme, can plug and play either tackle, Worst Case Pittsburgh @ 18, Teams: Kansas City 5, Seattle 6 and 14, Buffalo 9, San Francisco 13 and 17

Spud’s Spin: Buffalo @ 9

Spievey- First – Second; The least amount of corners taken in the first three rounds of the last 5 drafts is 10. Usually that number is chosen by the end of the second. Spievey is the most physical corner in this class, I haven’t watched tape of all of the corners but I have watched a lot. He can play any scheme. He is the most physical in this class. He is an immediate Nickel. He can start for a lot of teams. Worst Case Houston @51, Teams: Minnesota 30, Indianapolis 31, Tampa Bay 35 and 42,San Diego 40, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Atlanta if they acquire a second round pick

Spud’s Spin: Minnesota @ 30

A.J. Edds- Second to Third; He can probably fit into a 3-4 but he can plug into a 4-3 immediately at either outside spot. Was just a cut below Greenway in my estimation as an athlete. Would be a perfect Sam for a Cover 2 team. Worst Case St. Louis @ 99, Teams: Indianapolis 63 and 94, New Orleans 64 and 95, Philadelphia 70 and 87, Jacksonville 74, New York Giants 76, Carolina 78, Atlanta 83 and 98, Minnesota 93, St. Louis 99

Spud’s Spin: Indianapolis @ 63

Tony Moeaki- Second to Third; His only real knock is health, very versatile, can play any scheme, can line up as the inline TE or as the H, could be viewed as a luxury pick by a successful team. Worst Case San Diego @ 91, Teams: New York Giants 46 and 76, Kansas City 50 and 68, New England 53*, Baltimore 57, Cleveland 71 and 85 and 92, Miami 73, Chicago 75, Carolina 78, Atlanta 83, Cincinnati 84, Green Bay 86, San Diego 91 *I think if New England drafts him they will trade down to do it. They don’t currently possess a late second round pick but they have 3 in the middle of the second round

Spud’s Spin: Kansas City @ 68

Kyle Calloway- Third to Fourth; I think he can play either guard slot or right tackle, big and strong enough to play in multiple schemes (not just zone), Worst Case Miami @ 145, Teams: any really but here are the teams with this positional need picking in these rounds- Miami, Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, Chicago, Green Bay, St. Louis, San Francisco

Spud’s Spin: Houston @ 81

Pat Angerer- Fourth to Sixth; MLBs tend to fall on draft day. I think Angerer could play either Mike or Will in any 4-3 scheme but his size will be held against him. It doesn’t matter how well he actually played too many teams have Height/ Weight standards that they won’t adjust. It could benefit him as he could fall to a good team/ scheme fit. The most MLBs taken over the last 5 drafts (first three rounds) was 6 in 2007. Last year 2 were selected. Worst Case Tampa Bay @ 172, Teams: Houston, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Seattle

Spud’s Spin: Atlanta @ 149

Dace Richardson- 7th to UFA, Dace’s best case is landing with a team with multiple 7th round picks** who hasn’t addressed the interior O-line. He has been eliminated from most draft lists I trust which doesn’t really mean anything, but some of those guys actually talk to scouts and agents. He may be better off signing with a team of his own choosing and not being picked.

** the teams: New England 5; Tampa Bay 4; Detroit 3; Indianapolis 3; Miami 3

Rafael Eubanks- 7th to UFA, I think it is even less likely that Rafael will be drafted. However I am almost certain he will have a chance to make a team. His best chance of making a roster might be with San Diego or Kansas City.

Trey Stross- UFA I would love to be wrong and hear his name get called. I really think he has a chance to get a few phone calls and do the try out thing similar to Andy Brodell last season. I really thought Stross improved greatly over the last two seasons. I think his best chance to make a roster would be with the teams: Baltimore, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Washington, and Chicago.

Dan Doering and Andy Keumpal- again I think they could have a chance to go the tryout route. Their best bet would be to try teams like St. Louis, Detroit, Green Bay, and Kansas City. It never hurts to try teams with Ferentz connections so Baltimore, San Diego, and New England shouldn’t be ruled out either.

Good luck to all of them.

The Matchups Part II Iowa’s Offense Versus Tech’s Defense

2010-01-01T18:54:00.001-08:00

Georgia Tech is not a good defensive football team. They are not good versus the run or the pass. If Iowa doesn't score versus this team something is seriously wrong and the calls for O'keefe will be long and bitter. Tech has some very good players including Derrick Morgan who is coping with his demotion from the head job oh wait wrong Derrick Morgan. This Derrick Morgan chases QBs not serial killers. Tech's Morgan is probably the most talented DE I have seen all year and he makes O'brien Scholfield look slow. Strong Safety Morgan Burnett is a speedy and smart player but he is not given a lot of help by his teammates in the secondary. Sedric Griffin the SLB is a talented athlete and is all over the field but most of his plays are made 7 or 8 yards on the wrong end of the line of scrimmage.
The Yellow Jackets play a base 4-3 defense. Against Clemson in the Acc championship game they showed a 3-4 look but in the second half they abandoned it. They play a lot of single safety coverage with the corners and the other safety playing man coverage. They blitz both OLBs a lot. Griffin is a decent blitzer but the WLB Sylvester is not. Other than Morgan no one on the D-line provides much pressure. When they play zone coverages they favor cover 3 with Burnett usually playing Centerfield. They have some exotic zone blitzes but they are not executed very well and usually led to big plays for the other team. Even when they brought 7 or 8 men to pressure they rarely got to the QB. Morgan is the only player who reliably created pressure. If the LBs move late that probably means a blitz. This team over pursues a lot. They are very vulnerable to cut back runs and playaction passing. They are speedy but that can be used against them because they are constantly out of position. Their DTs do not get a good push against the run so they are forced to try to stunt and blitz linebackers to stop the run. That in turn exposes their secondary to a lot of man coverage. They are a very aggressive team and they take a lot of chances on defense.
On 3^rd downs they played mostly Dime packages and played mostly man coverages. They rarely blitzed. They usually just brought 4 or 3 depending on the front. They usually had one LB in Zone and one Safety in Zone. They weren't very effective stopping either the pass or the run on third downs. They also didn't force a lot of third downs on the games I watched. They gave up a lot of big runs to Clemson and Georgia. They play a lot of players on defense. They aren't afraid to sub players at any position. The only players who don't seem to leave the field are MLB Brad Jefferson and SS Morgan Burnett.
The Matchups:

79 LT Bryan Bulaga and 77 RT Riley Reiff Vs DEs 91 Derrick Morgan 6 4 272 JR, 41 Anthony Egbuniwe 6 4 255 JR, and 94 Izaan Cross 6 4 272 FR: Morgan is the best end the Hawks' will have faced this season. He reminds me of a taller Dwight Freeney. He has an incredible first step. Very long arms and he uses them well, he can beat double teams with power or speed. He has a great inside move and often wins with just speed. His biggest weakness is a tendency to over pursue. He can run himself out of plays- especially taking an outside rush on passing plays. Egbuniwe
is not explosive off the line. He can be swallowed up by tackles. He is not natural on twists or stunts. He plays high and can be pushed around by tight ends. Morgan and Egbuniwe play on either side. Cross plays a lot and subs for either player. He seems to play on the dime package. He is a very strong player. He isn't a natural rusher on twists. He doesn't possess a very good closing burst. He could grow into a DT. Very good size. I tend to buy the Morehouse report that Calloway will play guard in this game and Reiff will play Tackle. Reiff is a more natural tackle and has the better feet to deal with Morgan. Calloway has struggled with speed rushers and Reiff has struggled with huge tackles and Tech has one in T.J. Barnes. This game could determine If Bulaga will turn pro or come back for his senior campaign. If he were to dominate Morgan it would quiet a lot of doubters as Morgan is a better player than either Scholfield or Brandon Graham.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- I think that Bulaga and Reiff are capable of protecting Stanzi in this game. I am sure they can dominate in the running game. Tech has stopped a few teams from running the ball including North Carolina but Iowa has a much better Oline and this game could mean a ton to Bulaga's pro future whether he is going pro now or next season. Georgia and Clemson ran all over the Jackets mostly by running away from Morgan. I expect Iowa to try the same thing.

78 G Dace Richardson, 60 G/T Kyle Calloway, 52 C Rafael Eubanks, and 63 Julian Vandervelde Vs. DTs 90 T.J. Barnes 6 7 341 R.FR, 96 Logan Walls 6 2 286 SO, and 92 Jason Peters 6 4 273 SO: Barnes and Walls start. Peters doesn't see the field often. Walls is constantly on the ground. He does get off the ball quickly but he doesn't play with a lot of awareness. He rarely makes a play on the ball and can be easily redirected. He plays very hard. I didn't realize Barnes was so big. He is pushed around constantly. He also rarely makes a play on the ball. He rarely gets a good push and plays very high. He is constantly pushed around by guards and centers. Peters comes in on some of the dime packages. He rarely showed me anything to write about. No notes. Ben Anderson was the starter and they really miss him. He had a high motor and was constantly around the ball. It is a shame he got hurt. Hopefully he will be healthy for next season. If Iowa starts a line that features Richardson at LG and Calloway at RG I would expect a heavy dose of middle zone running plays. Iowa would tend to have the physical advantage and that seems to be where Tech is most vulnerable. I realize that Iowa doesn't have a C.J. Spiller but seven or eight yard chunks will be plenty effective enough for Iowa.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa- I don't think it matters what combination the line comes out in. This unit for Tech hasn't produced for most of the season. They play much smaller than their size and rarely make plays. Eubanks, Richardson, Vandervelde, Reiff, Calloway or whoever even Gettis or Keumpal should be albe to dominate Tech's interior.

81 TE Tony Moeaki Vs 54 SLB Sedric Griffin 5 11 225 SR: Griffin is a solid tackler, he has good pursuit speed, but he makes most of his plays way downfield. He over pursues the play way to often and has bad balance. He is often blown off the ball by Tight Ends. He is a pretty good zone defender. He gets good depth in his zone drops. He takes good angles to the ball carrier. He is not a great blitzer and doesn't always blitz with great speed. Moeaki may be the best Tight End of the Ferentz era. He certainly is the best blocker. He should be matched up with Griffin for most of the night as Griffin almost always lines up over the TE regardless of the side of the field(wide or short) he lined up on.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- Griffin is a pretty good player and definitely Tech's best LB but Moeaki is the better player. I am not sure if Griffin can defeat him consistently in the running game and if he is asked to cover him without help Moeaki could have a career game catching the ball. With as much man coverage as Tech plays I expect Moeaki to have a busy night.

36 FB Brett Morse and 82 TE Allen Reisner Vs. 34 WLB Steven Sylvester 6 2 233 SO: Sylvester is on the field in almost all of their packages but I rarely saw him make a tackle. He is often assigned to blitz the QB on the waggle and that could present some problems for Iowa's playaction game. He is not a very instinctive blitzer though and I rarely saw him make a play while blitzing. He does look good in zone coverage but they just don't play zone that often. He looks lost playing the run, over pursuing often and falling off of ball carriers. He looks like a great athlete, I just rarely saw him do anything positive. Morse and Reisner need to have active nights. They need to execute their assignments and if they are matched up with Sylvester take advantage of his aggressiveness. He can be blocked completely out of plays. If he takes himself out of the play they need to let him and block somebody else. If Morse is assigned the MLB he needs to own him. If he isn't involved early he seems to disappear from games. It would be nice to see these guys involved in the passing game again. With Stanzi returning that may happen.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- for most of the season these two players for Iowa have been very assignment sound. They need to continue that against Tech. Sylvester has a lot of potential he just hasn't put it all together on the field yet. I think in time he will be a good player for them. He may be playing out of position at Will and could take over for Griffin at SLB next season.

WRs 15 Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 22 Colin Sandeman, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. CBs 2 Mario Butler 6 1 182, 37 Jerrard Tarrant 6 0 202, and 28 Rashaad Ried 5 10 185: Bulter is the best player of this group. He always seems to be around the ball and is solid in run support. He is the best tackler of the bunch but that isn't saying much. He plays the deep ball pretty well. He is very vulnerable to double moves. They are all asked to do a lot. They constantly play man coverage with little safety help. He is pretty physical. He has pretty good recovery speed. Tarrant seems to get picked on a lot. He seems a step slow on crossing passes. He shows some good closing speed. Gets burned a lot on double moves. Had a very nice Interception return vs. Clemson and is their punt returner. Pretty athletic. Good change of direction ability, not a good tackler. Reid shows flashes of potential. Very good closing speed. Recognizes routes quickly. Comfortable in trail coverage. Not a good tackler. DJK has had another solid season. McNutt may be the most explosive Red Zone weapon Iowa has ever had. Stross has had a very good senior year with the exception of the "one " game. Sandeman has been fairly reliable too and an excellent blocker all season. Davis' future looks very bright. Iowa hasn't been this loaded at this position ever.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- If Stanzi is on and throwing to the right team I could see either DJK or McNutt having a multiple TD 100 yard type of performance. This team has to gamble to stop the run and is consequently very vulnerable to deep playaction passes. I am not sure that Tech will respect the athleticism Iowa has at this position early in the game. They may have to let Iowa run past them a few times before they realize Iowa's receivers can run too.

TBs 32 Adam Robinson and 3 Brandon Wegher Vs. 51 MLB Brad Jefferson 6 2 237 JR: Jefferson is the leading tackler for the Jackets but I rarely saw him make a play vs. Georgia or Clemson. He doesn't get through traffic and doesn't always diagnose well. He can really be fooled by misdirection. Like the rest of his teammates he is really guilty of over pursuing and really gets himself out of position. If he gets to the ball he generally makes the tackle. He is very aggressive and wants to play downhill and is very vulnerable to playaction passes. He doesn't always get great zone drops and seems uncomfortable in pass coverage. He looks lost covering backs out of the backfield. He is a little stiff but has pretty good speed and initial burst. Robinson could have a field day versus this defense. He is the runner who seems to know how to set up his hole and to cut against the grain and that is what this defense is very vulnerable too. If you get them flowing one way and cut upfield you can hurt them for big gains. Wegher may have the better speed and athleticism but he hasn't seemed to grasp the patience to let his blocks develop. One of these guys is going to end up with 100 yards but I have been wrong all season about which one.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Iowa- In this game all signs point to Robinson having a big day so I will predict it is Wegher who goes off. I think that Jefferson is a decent player but he just gets himself out of position to often. If Robinson and Wegher can take advantage of that early that would be very nice for the Hawks.

12 QB Ricky Stanzi Vs. 1 SS Morgan Burnett 6 1 210 JR and 33 Mario Edwards 6 1 216 JR: Burnett is a pro. He is very good in man coverage and does a nice job of reading routes. He recognizes run/pass well and has good speed. He gets involved in a lot of plays. He is a good tackler. He takes good angles and has a good closing burst. He is very comfortable playing centerfield and does a nice job of reading route combos and the QB. Edwards struggles in man coverage vs. the slot receiver. He is a pretty good tackler in run support. He seems to be more comfortable in zone coverage but Tech doesn't play a ton of that coverage. He is quick to read his keys and doesn't often make a mistake. I rarely saw him get burned or be the player responsible for a blown coverage. Stanzi will be playing his first game in over two months. He is supposed to be 100% healthy. He can't help but be rusty. He needs to be on top of his game because Iowa needs to put up points on the board nearly every time they possess the ball. He can't afford to throw the ball to the other team. Tech doesn't really try to disguise what they are doing so Stanzi needs to be given time to audible. He needs to read the D and get into the correct play or at least out of bad ones. If he is on his game mentally he shouldn't have to carry the team. Iowa should be able to run the ball at will vs. this team. Anything they get in the passing game should be a bonus.
Spud's Spin: Advantage Tech- I think it is too much to ask Stanzi to come in and play lights out. I think he can come in and complete 50% of his passes and not turn the ball over and that would be a successful outing. What is important is that he have a turnover free game. He needs to get Iowa into good plays and keep the ball away from Nesbitt, Dwyer and company. If he can keep Iowa's D rested and put points on the scoreboard and keep the ball out of Burnett's hands and Morgan off of his back it will be a good night for the Hawkeyes.

Some terrible predictions:

Moeaki goes out with 8 catches 112 yards and 2 TDs
Both Robinson and Wegher rush for over 100 yards
Hunter finishes with 20 tackles and a FF. Player of the Game.
Anthony Allen leads Tech with 109 yards with 65 coming on a beautiful counter.
Tyler Sash gets 3 interceptions in a game again. He scores the last TD of the game.

I think that it is very possible for Iowa to score every time they have the ball versus this team. Iowa's line will be as healthy as they have been all season. Players like DJK, Robinson, Wegher, Moeaki, and others will be as healthy as they have been all season. Georgia Tech is a very aggressive team but their speed can be used against them. The team they remind me of the most is Michigan. Iowa put up a lot of points and yards against Michigan. Scheme wise they are kind of similar to Michigan. They fool around a little with a 3-4 look. They are pretty undisciplined. They have one very fierce pass rusher, and one very good secondary player. Moeaki had a big day versus Michigan and I think he could have a big bowl game. I also think the Hawks are going to be able to run the ball. It will be important for the Hawk's to possess the ball or at least put points on the board because Georgia Tech is going to score some points.
Spud's Spin: I think the Hawks will come out opposite of what they had been doing with Stanzi at the helm which was passing to set up the run. I think they will pound the ball. I think that Robinson and Wegher may not alternate series but possibly plays because Iowa is going to try to run so much. I think Iowa may feature a lot of I formation with two tight ends and try to wear out this defense early. I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa run right at Morgan to try to see if he can be worn down. I ultimately see this stategy succeeding. Eventually I think Iowa's D will figure out the Flexbone and the D-line will take over the game. I also think that the O-line for Iowa will dominate this game. Physical football never goes out of style and this is the most physical Iowa team in quite a while. This is a deep O-line and I think that they can wear down Tech's defense by early in the 3^rd quarter. Close game until the 4^th Iowa 38 Georgia Tech 24.

The Matchups Part I Iowa's Defense Vs Georgia Tech's Offense

2010-01-01T15:56:00.000-08:00

The Matchups Part I: Iowa’s Defense Vs. Georgia Tech’s Offense

Tuesday Iowa will face Georgia Tech’s version of the Shell Game operated by Josh Nesbitt and bankrolled by Paul Johnson. Angerer, Clayborn, and company have been schooled by Norm Parker how to defeat the sleight of hand. Punch the dealer in the face and run off with his money. This will be the side of the ball where this game will be won. Georgia Tech is so bad at tackling that they couldn’t even tackle Dwyer on an end zone celebration in the ACC Championship Game . Both teams are going to score. The Key for Iowa is to limit Tech to field goals and hope that Tech is rusty and turns the ball over.

Before I get started here are a couple of links that I think are excellent resources to understanding their offense and include youtube videos:

http://thebirddog.wordpress.com/2008/11/09/offense-offensive/

http://smartfootball.com/option/whats-wrong-with-georgia-techs-run-game-is-anything

Regarding the second link, I think that Nesbitt has Johnson’s trust now and is in total command of the offense now. He was making very good decisions at the end of the season. He looked to be in control versus Georgia and Clemson at the end of the season.

Tech runs a “spread” option out of a flexbone formation. The spread element doesn’t refer to the formation but rather to the gap between the lineman. Each lineman is at least a yard apart and possibly two. The heart and soul of this attack is the triple option, although they have several very effective running plays that are not option based. Tech is not a passing team but they are very efficient when they do pass. They lull teams to sleep by not passing for a series or two and then boom 70 yard TD to Demaryius Thomas. The trigger man for the attack is Josh Nesbitt. The most dangerous runner is Jonathan Dwyer the Bback who lines up at traditional Fullback depth.

The Yellow Jackets’ run only 4 formations but they mainly run the basic Flexbone. This formation consists of the 5 lineman with the aforementioned gaps, the QB undercenter, the Bback lined up 4 yards behind the QB, two Abacks just outside the tackles, and two Wide Outs split. Each play begins with one of the Abacks going into motion behind the Bback.

The plays they run out of this formation are the triple option to the playside (towards the motion of the Aback), a pitch to the motion of the Aback, and a devastating QB lead play where Nesbitt fakes to Dwyer, and reads his blocks by Dwyer, the line and both Abacks. This may be their most effective play. They feature two other types of options, a counter option (counter to the Aback motion) which is still triple and a speed option with the Bback. They have counters to every one of their plays. They feature multiple blocking schemes for every running play. Every play may look the same but they may block it differently even if they run it two times in a row.

When they pass out of this formation they generally are looking to strike deep down field. The most common play is both Wrs streaking with the Aback not in motion going down the seam. They also usually run one “smoke” play to Bey Bey Thomas per game. By this I mean a one step throw directly to him allowing him to try to break a tackle and make a big gain. I have seen them try to run a few screens to both Dwyer and to Abacks but none successfully.

The other formations they feature are a Flexbone Twins with the slot covered; a Flexbone with the slot uncovered and the Aback on the line of scrimmage, and a 3 wide set with the Aback to the same side as the slot receiver. The first two formations feature the same types of plays. The third formation (the 3 wide formation) would tend to be their passing formation. They also use it for their two minute offense. They feature a more varied passing offense out of this formation and still can run the triple option out of it. They also feature a very effective draw play off of a roll out passing motion. I saw Dwyer break off several big gains on that specific play.

Tech’s Offensive Line is very athletic. They are very scheme sound. They understand who they are supposed to block. They are outstanding at cutblocking. They struggle with pass blocking. They sell playaction as a unit very well. One player seems to sub in for another without the offense seeming to miss a beat.

The Matchups:

94 RE Adrian Clayborn and 91 LE Broderick Binns VS. Ts 60 Brad Sellers 6 2 257 SR, 61 Phil Smith 6 6 285 R.FR, 75 Nick Claytor 6 6 284 SO: It is my understanding that Smith broke his leg during the Acc championship game and will not be available during the bowl game. He is listed on their two deeps so I will include my report of him just in case. Smith is very athletic. He got to a corner on a smoke pass to Thomas. He can be dominated at the point of attack by physical ends. Does a nice job at the second level sealing defenders. Very good at cutting at LOS. Sellers played LT after Smith’s injury. More likely to cut than any other lineman. Undersized. Very athletic, very nice block on a draw vs. Duke, really quick for a tackle. May have been a tight end. Really excels at 2nd level. I didn’see much of Claytor. Offense didn’t seem to miss a beat when he came in vs. Clemson. Scored on every possession. He has a very big frame to grow into and very long arms. May be a better fit to match up with Binns than Sellers. Clayborn and Binns have played spectacular for Iowa. I am not sure how Parker will deploy them. Most teams had they D-ends play with a two point stance. Miami didn’t and they were the most effective versus the Jackets. If the ends are to attack I imagine they will line up in a 3 point stance. If they are playing read and contain responsibilities I figure they will be standing up.

Spud’s Spin: Edge Iowa- Iowa gets the nod here on pure athleticism. Tech’s unique system and discipline in blocking it somewhat nullify this advantage but Binns and especially Clayborn are superior athletes to the guys they will be facing. Tech struggled with Miami, Va Tech, and North Carolina at times when facing similarly skilled Defensive lines. This could be the key matchup for Iowa slowing down Tech’s offense.

DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs. 71 LG Cord Howard 6 5 308 SR, 79 C Sean Bedford 6 1 274 JR, 70 RG Joseph Gilbert 6 4 280 SO: Howard is the best lineman on Tech’s team and may be a Sunday player. He is very good in space, he always finds someone to hit, very physical- nasty, very good on the pull. Probably the best one on one pass blocker. Slowest of the lineman by far. Bedford is really undersized and can be pushed back by a physical DT. I saw him dominated by several different players. Doesn’t explode off the ball. At his best doubling and then hitting the 2nd level. Pretty good athlete. Gilbert might have the brightest future of all of the lineman. Really gets off the LOS well. Excellent at initial double team and finding a 2nd target. Very good athlete. Great at 2nd level. Excellent cut blocker. Kind of penalty prone. Not a great pass blocker yet. Could grow into a tackle. Ballard really started coming into his own towards the end of the season. I literally had something positive written about him on every play against Minnesota. Klug quietly had a solid season and is very technically sound. Mike Daniels played very well in limited appearances and is suited very well to play against this kind of attack. Ballard needs to be very disruptive and control the line of scrimmage. If Iowa lines up one of these players over the Center they need to take away the Dive play on the Triple option by themselves. These guys need to occupy three lineman and keep Angerer clean.

Spud’s Spin: Edge Iowa- Again Iowa has the athletic advantage. Ballard and Klug need to be disruptive and make plays for Iowa to be successful against this attack. The one thing that every team has had in common that has experienced success versus this attack has been superior defensive line play. I think that Klug and Ballard can supply it.

CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, 10 Willie Lowe, and 18 Micah Hyde Vs 8 Demaryius (Bey Bey) Thomas 6 3 229 JR, 84 Tyler Melton 6 0 206 So, and 5 Stephen Hill 6 4 196 FR: Thomas is pretty much the only guy they throw to. He is huge. He seems to be bigger than they are listing him. He has great body control, he is incredibly physical, great after the catch, very patient- looking to break tackles not outrun defender, very good blocker can take on Des and LBs on the Crack Back. I don’t know if he is a good route runner or he is just open all of the time because of the scheme. Melton is a good route runner, he has a nice jab step creating separation on dig and out/ in patterns. He is a very good blocker. He doesn’t get the ball often. Hill looks like a star in waiting. I imagine he will be the go to guy next season after Thomas goes to the draft. He has very good speed, very good body control and is a great leaper. Very athletic. He isn’t afraid to block either. Spievey is good to go for this scheme. He is physical enough to defend the run and excels at it. Prater trying to stop the option or tackle Thomas one on one on a smoke route makes me a little nervous. I don’t think that Iowa will line up Spievey on Thomas all day, I think that it will be business as usual with Spievey on the Left corner and Prater on the right. I don’t expect a lot of Nickel or Dime out of Iowa verus this team so I don’t expect a lot of Lowe or Hyde. There are rumors that Prater is hurt so Lowe may start in his place. I thought he was playing well at the end of the season.

Spud’s Spin: Advantage Tech- The idea of Prater having to tackle Thomas just makes me too nervous. It has been since Michigan State last season that a WR has run loose against this secondary but Demaryius Thomas has 11 TDs this season of 70 yards. Seriously. Not in a career, this season. This is such a strange offense to defend it would seem impossible to lose track of a mammoth receiver like him but he sneaks past secondaries all of the time and runs free in almost every game. If Iowa doesn’t assign Spievey to him I think this is a very big advantage for Tech. This is no knock on Prater, just an acknowledgement of how good this kid is. He is a difference maker on an NFL team.

49 Leo A.J. Edds and 42 WLB Jeremiha Hunter Vs. Abacks 18 Anthony Allen 6 0 231 JR, 20 Roddy Jones 5 9 195 So, 24 Embry Peeples 5 10 172 SO, and 3 Marcus Wright 5 8 173 SO: Allen is the best player of the Abacks. He may be the next Bback if Dwyer leaves for the Draft after this season. He is a very patient runner. He has good speed. He reads his blocks well, has good feet, and is a very good cut blocker. Jones, Peeples and Wright are basically the same player- shifty and very fast. They all are very good after the pitch and do a nice job cutting leading the way on the option. Peeples and Wright are slightly fumble prone or at least have some issues sometimes with handling the pitch. Jones is very smooth in the option game. Peeples is a pretty good receiver. He is sometimes motioned out to the slot. Edds and Hunter will be busy. They should be the players most often accountable for the pitchman and will have to shed the playside Aback. They are much bigger than most of the Abacks and should be able to handle them physically. They need to be able to keep their feet and avoid being cut. Hunter could have a very big day as they seem to favor running the option to the short side of the field. This could be a very nice showcase for Edds as he doesn’t often get to play this close to the line of scrimmage.

Spud’s Spin: Advantage Iowa- Hunter and Edds are bigger and just as athletic as these Abacks. While most people in the South can’t possibly believe that, Iowa fans have watched Edds run with receivers for 4 seasons and Hunter is the best pure run defending Linebacker since Hodge. Hunter must be salivating at facing a scheme like this. He will be able to attack downhill and flow to the ball. He is probably the best LB at sifting through traffic. Edds is the best Athlete Iowa has had at LB since Greenway and may be as good. He certainly will be Iowa’s highest Senior draft pick in next year’s draft.

43 MLB Pat Angerer Vs. 21 Bback Jonathan Dwyer 6 0 235 JR: Dwyer will be the most gifted runner Iowa has faced this season. He is better than Clay and compares most closely to Shonn Greene although I think he is faster than Greene. I can’t say enough good things about this guy. Great vision, initial burst, pad level, and ball security. He has a very good 2nd gear and is very patient and reads his blocks well. He runs through tackles. He is a willing blocker, and finds the right guy to block almost every time. He has pretty good hands. Angerer has been incredible for Iowa this season. He has been much better against the run than I expected. He has done a nice job of getting through traffic and finding the ball carrier. I figure he will be assigned the Dive guy so he will be responsible for Dwyer all day. This should be a delight to watch.

Spud’s Spin: Advantage Tech- As good as Angerer has been all season this guy is too good to contain all day. He also has help from Nesbitt and can be lined up in the Aback slot. They are creative in getting him the ball. He does more than just run a FB dive. I don’t think he will get loose on that type of play but he may on a counter or a speed option.

9 SS Tyler Sash and 30 FS Brett Greenwood Vs. 9 QB Josh Nesbitt 6 1 214 JR: Nesbitt is a very good fit for this offense. He is a very gritty player and seems to be a very respected player. He seems to have total command of the offense and is very good in the option game. He is a very shifty runner, he reads blocks well, is a great decision maker in the option game, very good with the ball handling in the option game. He has great feet. He isn’t really fast but he is quick. He doesn’t have great arm strength. He isn’t really accurate. When he is throwing to a receiver the receiver is usually wide open. He throws a pretty good deep ball- gives the receiver a chance to make a play. He makes solid decisions in the passing game. Sash and Greenwood have played well all season for Iowa. Sash played at possibly All American level and has already drawn the notice of NFL evaluators. I think they read the run/pass keys as well as any safeties in the nation and close on the ball well. The key for them in this game is to tackle soundly. They must not let anyone get behind them and if they get their hands on a ball they must catch it. Any chance Iowa has to force a turnover must be taken.

Spud’s Spin: Advantage Tech- Nesbitt is a star in this offense. I am not sure he is a good enough passer to be a starter in another type of offense. He is a gritty and tough player. He is a very solid decision maker. He rarely makes mistakes. If he does in this game than I have this area wrong. Sash and Greenwood have done a very good job all season of playing the pass first and then supporting the run. They are fast enough to hesitate and make sure they aren’t going to be burned by playaction. They must not let Thomas get behind them. If they get a chance to put a killshot on Nesbitt or Dwyer they need to punish them. They are capable of playing physical and they must play that way for Iowa to be successful in this game.

I am not going to do a prediction in this paragraph as this is the first part of two. Iowa can stop this offense but it will be difficult to constantly stop it all day. Tech will score some points. What Iowa needs to do is play typical Iowa football. Let them move the ball and stiffen up in the red zone- no TDS. If they are successful and can force a turnover or two than they should be in good position to win the game.

What Went Wrong With the Offense?

2009-11-23T23:25:00.000-08:00

Iowa strives for balance on offense. That is the mantra repeated from the staff. Usually by the end of the season the rushing attempts and passing attempts are incredibly close in numbers. This season will probably be skewed more towards the pass and would have been even more if sacks weren't kept as rushing stats for college. With Stanzi as the QB Iowa had evolved into a pass to set up the run team. In the Northwestern game Iowa basically abandoned the run and passed at a 4 to 1 ratio. OSU was a much more balanced gameplan although still 60-40 tilted towards the pass. I believe the gameplan against the Gophers was to establish the run and try for big plays in the passing game. However when Robinson went down the running game went off track and the passing game that was designed never really got on track.

Jon sent me an email that said he didn't think the coaches wanted JVB throwing over the middle and I think he is absolutely correct. In the first half JVB ran 15 passing plays. He threw two over the middle: one an incompletion deep for Stross into double coverage and one to his second read to DJK that could have gone for more yards if he hit him in stride. In the second half he attacked the middle twice in a row for Tony Moeaki on the second series. That was it for the game. I understand the staff protecting a young QB but I felt he was capable of more in this game.

The playcalling on the first drive was very good until they got into the red zone. Minnesota had played Iowa with 7 in the box until Iowa entered that area. Iowa still tried to run the ball twice in a row, once into an eight man front and once into a nine man front. They still almost scored a TD on the drive on a nice audible by JVB on a slant pattern to DJK that wasn't executed.

The playcalling early in the game was a little disjointed to me. Only 4 of the first 16 plays were passes. Then the next 4, and 7 of the next 9 were passes. Iowa was a disaster all game on 3rd and long and the playcalls on that down didn't seem to do a young QB any favors. Kevin Cosgrove obviously watched a lot of the Northwestern gametape because a lot of those blitzes seemed familiar. Iowa needs to execute against zone blitz schemes much better in the future. I think there is plenty of blame to go around.

On Iowa's TD scoring drive the Hawks basically only ran two passing plays, the same play action pass out of different formations, and a nicely executed slant out of a two tight end, two wide out set. They ran the ball with the fullback in and scored with Wegher doing his trademark leap in the Goalline formation.

Iowa had six 3 and outs. They had very good field position for much of the day. In the first half they used a three receiver formation on a first or second down one time. They did run a couple of receiver screens- one for a one yard gain and the second was a dropped interception. Iowa didn't run a screen for a running back or a tight end. For some reason Iowa is more likely to run the ball to the short side of the field when Wegher is in the game instead of Robinson. I think the reverse makes sense.

The good news is the two defenses that gave us the most trouble- Northwestern and Minnesota, graduate all of their key players. The bad news is they were among the least physically talented that Iowa faced all season. Kevin Cosgrove is a very good, veteran coach who had matched wits with the Iowa staff for several years when he was with Wisconsin. He blitzed every team I watched Minny play preparing for the match ups article, so it is pretty disappointing that Iowa had so much trouble with the Gopher's blitz package.

I don't think the injury excuse is really an excuse at all. I think it is a legitamate explanation for some of Iowa's offensive issues. Wegher probably shouldn't have been playing as hurt as he was, and Robinson was playing incredibly well for as hurt as he was. Richardson was Iowa's best interior lineman all season and Iowa never really recovered from his loss. As well as Vandenberg played he still was up and down and sometimes that was on the same drive. He flashes so much potential, though, it is scary. I haven't been as excited about an Iowa QB's upside since Tate. And Vandy has NFL size. But Stanzi made winning plays. He has a very nice touch on his intermediate throws which is what JVB is missing right now. I am sure that will come with time. Iowa missed Moeaki, Bulaga, DJK, Chaney, Sandeman, and Vandervelde during the season to injuries at some point during the season. Not to mention Hampton and Brinson all season. That is a lot for a team to overcome. Ferentz's other 10 win regular season team was in 2002 and they had a remarkably healthy run.

This unit as a whole should improve next year. I am not sure why people thought the offense would be better than last season's team and especially after we had to replace Shonn Greene and Jewel Hampton. Seth Olsen and Rob Bruggeman are playing in the NFL. Shonn Greene is playing in the NFL. Brandon Myers is the NFL Special Teams Player of the week (got get that Jasper County Plug in there). Moeaki will probably play in the NFL, but Eubanks is a longshot. Reiff (in effect Olsen's replacement) is a red shirt freshman playing out of position. Robinson and Wegher have done outstanding but they had huge shoes to fill. Andy Brodell was a very underrated punt returner. It took half of the season for the staff to realize that Sandeman may have been Brodell reincarnated.

There is only one stat that gets me excited and that is wins. I didn't always feel that way and sometimes after a particularly ugly win I might take a few minutes to cool down and I might secretly curse some members of the coaching staff. I might make some jokes about missing letters of some of their names. But after 11 years I have come to the conclusion that Ferentz and his staff know what they are doing. When January comes around this will be a new team. It will be a team that scores points. They will be able to run and pass. They will be fun for anyone to watch until the second half gets out of hand unless you are a Hawkeye fan. When we roll whoever our opponent in the bowl is and you can't guess our plays because KOK breaks tendencies in the bowl game early on- remember you read it here first.

Minnesota Vs. Iowa Matchups

2009-11-19T03:17:00.000-08:00

Saturday is the last regular season game for Iowa this year. It is more than the battle for Floyd. It is Senior Day, a chance for a 10 win season, and a chance to work off the frustration of back to back losses after riding the high of a 13 game winning streak. The Golden Gophers may be just the medicine for what is ailing Iowa. Minny comes into this game 6-5 but reeling after suffering through their own version of Iowa versus UNI, narrowly escaping the upset last weekend at the hands of South Dakota State. Minnesota is a very veteran team that is missing their biggest weapon in Eric Decker- a future pro Wide Receiver. Minny hung with Ohio State this season and beat Michigan State. They should have beaten Illinois. They are a decent team that has a habit of shooting themselves in the foot. That generally plays into the Hawkeye's hands. However we have seen this Iowa team play to the level of their competition in every game except for one. If Minny makes mistakes Iowa must punish them for it and score TDs like they did against Iowa State. Iowa has won every trophy game this season. They should make it a clean sweep.

Offensively the Rodents are led by O.C. Jedd Fisch. He should be a name to watch in the coming seasons. They are very multiple and will run or pass out of any formation and line up in any formation on any down regardless of the distance. The only real tendencies I could spot were a lot of first down play action, and if that failed the almost always ran on second down. They are trying to transition to a Pro-style offense from the spread but they are often more effective from the Shotgun formations. Adam Weber is a good quaterback when he has time to read his progressions. Losing Decker may have made him better. His new favorite target seems to be the tight end Nick Tow-Arnett and they scheme to get him the ball. If he is in motion or not near the line of scrimmage something is probably up.
They will bring in 5 MarQuies Gray to run "Wildcat" but is just a garden variety spread offense. Gray is not a threat to pass and has attempted only 11 passes all season completing 5 with his longest being a 16 yard TD in garbage time. His series of plays include the standard Qb read option, a speed option, a Qb Draw, and regular hand offs to the back. They run some funny 4 receivers to one side stuff but generally they have a Shotgun Y (3 WR 1 TE 1 TB, two wideouts and the TE on the wide side) formation when he is in the Qb position. He also plays receiver and will start as the QB with Weber on the field and they will switch positions. He is an effective runner and is making better decisions with his keep/ handoff reads. He is a bigger version of Michigan's Denard Robinson right now.
Lately they have discoverd the fullback in their offense and he appears to be a good one. 35 Jon Hoese is a decent blocker, but he has developed into a very good receiver and also a nice short yardage option for them in the running game. He has yet to be stopped for a loss this season.
Finally their offensive line favors zone running schemes but they aren't very athletic and they struggle to get a good push and to get to the second level. In the 4 games I watched they really struggled to run the ball, even against SDSU. They are not good in pass protection and are bewildered by the blitz. They gave up 7 sacks to the Illini and 4 to the Jackrabbits. Many other times Weber was running for his life. Against SDSU Weber was pressured into throwing a pick 6. Iowa probably doesn't have to blitz to pressure Weber but it might be fun to see. This is probably the most penalized unit in the Big Ten and may have more penalties alone than the entire Iowa team. They are plagued by false starts and holding calls.

Defensively the Rodents run a base 4-3. They have a very big front 4 and they are physical. They aren't really explosive but they play the run extremely well and I saw them repeatedly blow up zone running schemes. The defensive tackles are really big and they play with leverage. The D-ends play their gaps well and play the run first. Kevin Cosgrove (formerly of Wisconsin) runs a very aggresive D. When they are blitzing everyone in the stadium will know it. They don't disguise their blitzs. They are aggressive in every way and are vulnerable to play-action passes and the deep pass in general. I saw them repeatedly burned in Cover 2 to the strong side of the field by receivers just running away from the strong safety. Cover 3 seems to be what they run the most of however.
On 3rd and Longs or obvious passing downs they run some standard 4-3, some 3-3-5 and some Nickel. I would say 90% of the time they bring at least 5 and often 7. They don't hide their pressure. I saw 5 different blitzes against the freshman QB for Illinois- Charest. They cannot generate pressure with their front four and are forced to compensate by blitzing. Both of their starting OLBs Lawrence and Tripplett are decent blitzers. They have good speed for the position and take good angles to the QB. The only DL able to generate a pass rush on his own is the DT Brown.

Special Teams: Minnesota's special teams are not very consistent. The coverage units are a liability. The kicker 37 Eric Ellestad has the leg to kick it into the end zone but when he doesn't he either shanks it out of bounds, or they give up huge returns. I saw MSU return one for a TD, Illinois bust one for over 30 and SDSU take one back for 86. I imagine they have worked on this some.
The punter 38 Blake Haudan doesn't usually kick it far enough for the other team to return it but when he does this unit is also vulnerable. SDSU also ripped off a 47 yarder.
Ellestad isn't a very reliable field goal kicker and hasn't made one from beyond 40 this season. He is money on extra points however.
Troy Stoudermire is an excellent returner on Kickoffs. He has good patience, a nice ability to start and stop and accelerate again, he can break a tackle, and he is shifty in general. He struggles catching the ball at times. The other returner Jay Thomas also does a nice job of letting blocks develop and had a nice run back nullified by a penalty.
Bryant Allen returns the punts but he has only returned 3 all season. He is a fair catch machine but he catches the ball with his body. I predict at least one muff on Saturday. I haven't seen him return a punt.

One last thing before the Match Ups. This team is a lot like Iowa was last week. They have absolutely nothing to lose. They are probably treating last week's game as a loss. They are starting 11 players from last season's team whom remember last season's trip to the wood shed. I think they are actually well coached and I was suprised. I think if they can block for Weber he is as dangerous as any QB the Hawkeyes have faced, since Kafka was so limited. I think the Hawks should dominate this game, but MSU should have destroyed this team and Minny got a lead and kept scoring against a very good defense. They didn't get lucky, they executed a very souund offensive gameplan and did just enough defensively to hold on to that game. They won in spite of 17 penalties and 152 yards against them. They fought back and almost came back to beat Illinois scoring 22 points in the 4th quarter of that game. They could have easily packed it in last week after getting way more of a game than anyone expected. I doubt that they will fold because they are facing Iowa. They would love nothing more than to ruin Iowa's chances to go to the BCS. They are riding on a Bus to and from this game, Iowa could be flying to Tempe in 6 weeks. I bet they can find some motivation for this game.

The Match Ups:

79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. Sh.DE 89 Barrett Moen 6 3 282 SR, WiDE 55 Cedric Mckinley 6 6 282 SR, and DE 97 Anthony Jacobs 6 2 289 SO: Moen usually lines up on the short side of the field, Mckinley on the wide. They are similar in skill set although Mckinley is a little more athletic. Moen isn't real explosive and doesn't rush the passer very well. He can be sucked in on P/action. He is stout against the run and can dominate most TEs physically. He hustles. Mckinley has a good motor and also plays the run very well. He too can be sucked in by P/action. He has a little more explosiveness and can make up for it better. He has a couple of pass rush moves but doesn't get to the QB often. He has a great motor and pusues really well and will make a play 20-30 yards downfield. Jacobs plays on some of the Nickel packages and I don't have a single note written down about him other than that. Bulaga and Calloway played excellent last weekend. The only thing I have written down as a negative for either of them was on the last run before overtime on Bulaga, and he still tried to ride his guy out of the play. This will be the least physically challenging match up for these guys in some time.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa: Both of Iowa's players could be playing for NFL teams next season. I don't think either of Minnys will.  Both of Iowa's tackles can handle either guy in both phases and I think Moeaki can block either one too. I am not sure how Iowa will gameplan this but eventually they will be running the ball a lot, and I look forward to watching these guys go at it.

77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs. DTs 98 Eric Small 6 2 306 SR, 99 Garrett Brown 6 2 310 SR, and 96 Brandon Kirksey 6 2 295 SO: Small and Brown are on the field alot. They are very effective against the run and Brown is a decent pass rusher. They are the keys to Minny's rushing defense. They remind me a little of having two Matt Krouls. They attack their gaps and try to penetrate vs. zone schemes. Small isn't really explosive off the snap but he finds the ball. He plays low and gets a good push in the running game. He is very strong and is willing to just hold his spot. He doesn't have the speed to track down plays away from him often. He plays very, very hard. Brown is pretty explosive and he is the more disruptive of the two. He has a little more burst in him and he can get to the runner from behind occasionally. He also has a little more success getting to the QB although he pretty much just tries to push his way there. Kirksey is pretty much just in there to give these guys a blow right now. I didn't see him do anything special except get off the ball really slow. #95 D.L. Wilhite scored a TD vs SDSU but isn't listed on the depth chart. Iowa's interior unit is coming off of its best game collectively but this will still be a tough match up for them. These guys are bigger than the OSU players and willing to just anchor against the run rather than try to run with the lineman and try to make plays. This will especially be a strength mismatch for Reiff and Eubanks.
Spud's Spin: Edge Gophers: These are some veteran players for Minnesota and they are having good seasons. They understand what their roles are in the defense they are playing and if they can make a play so much the better. Iowa should have the quickness edge here but Minny definately has the strength and especially in Reiff's case the experience edge. It will be important for Iowa's players to get to the second level vs. the Gophers because their LBs are pretty good downhill and know how to use their D-line to their advantage. They don't shed blocks well however.

81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 21 Simoni Lawrence 6 1 221 SR: Lawrence is a very good athlete but he is a little undersized and struggles at the point of attack in the run game. He is very comfortable in space and a good tackler. He gets good depth on his zone drops and he has very good make up speed if he takes a false step on P/action. He also has very good closing speed for a linebacker. He understands how to play his zone and doesn't take chances exposing his area of the field. He is a decent blitzer and possibly their best pass rushing threat. He can be swallowed up by lineman and tightends, though and he doesn't shed blocks very well, prefering to try to run around them. Moeaki played pretty well versus OSU. He had one dropped pass on a hitch route and one that he tipped that led to the first Iowa turnover. That was a pretty tough catch but I have seen him make those kinds of plays. I haven't seen Minny's D scheme for a particular receiver including B. White from MSU, prefering to either blitz to force the ball out early or play their regular coverages. Tony did a pretty good job blocking in both phases.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Lawrence can run with Tony but I am not sure he can cover him. He is giving up a lot in Height and Weight in this match up and I think Tony could flat out dominate him run blocking him. Tony could have a big day if he is the hot receiver as much as Cosgrove likes to blitz. I would prefer to see Moeaki running a route on every passing play and not pass blocking in this game no matter how much pressure Minnesota is bringing. He could really rack up the YAC in this game if he is the outlet receiver and JVB has shown the ability to find his checkdown very well.

82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 32 WLB Nate Triplett 6 3 247 SR: Triplett doesn't seem to change direction well and can really overpursue. He can make a tackle with a blocker on his hip and can sift through traffic. He has decent straight ahead speed and reads his keys well. He is very aggressive though and can really get sucked in on playaction. He doesn't miss very many tackles and will bring a guy down in space. He never gives up on a play. He is a good blitzer and finds a gap through the middle as well as any linebacker Iowa has faced this season. Reisner had a nice game last week and seems to be benefitting from the change in QB. He is also underrated as a blocker. Morse hasn't been as productive lately as he was early in the season but I think some of the blocks he is accused of missing are misunderstood. I think he is responsible for backside pursuit on a lot of Iowa's runs and isn't necassarily always a lead blocker in Iowa's scheme. He has also been a productive outlet for the passing game and is a very reliable pass blocker.
Spud's Spin: Edge Gophers: Triplett isn't always pretty but he finds the ball and makes the tackle. He also knows where he is supposed to be on the field and he gets there. He can be blocked but if he is he fights hard to get off of it. He is pretty strong and very instinctive. I think it is really important for Iowa's running game for him to be blocked. If he is consistently one of Iowa's runningbacks will have a big day.

WRs 86 Trey Stross, 15 DJK, 7 Marvin McNutt, 6 Keenan Davis, and 22 Colin Sandeman Vs. CBs 15 Traye Simmons 5 11 180 SR, 24 Marcus Sherels 5 11 172 SR, 1 Michael Carter 5 11 163, and 2 Ryan Collado 5 9 173 JR: I bet Simmons and Sherels remember last season. They were victimized by DJK repeatedly by double moves. They are very aggressive corners and they try to jump routes. They blow a lot of coverages. Simmons is a decent tackler on receivers but he doesn't seem to like to help in the run game. He is still vulnerable to the double move and will jump a route when he has deep responsiblity on Cover 3. He was hurt for much of the SDSU game, but was listed in the depth chart. Sherels is a little more disiplined but he can still be beaten by a double move. He is also not big on run support. He doesn't play the ball in the air on deep passes. He isn't extremely fast. He does seem to read routes well and closes well on short passes. Carter looks like he may be something special. He is by far the most physical of the outside players. He has the ability to turn and run with receivers. He isn't afraid to make a play on the ball in the air. He also has nice closing speed. Collado plays the Nickel Back. He is listed as a Safety on the two deep but I haven't seen him play that position. He looks pretty decent in coverage and he is a good tackler. He isn't as fast as the other three players but has a knack for understanding what receivers are trying to do. He plays his reponsibilities well. All of these players were beaten deep at least once and usually more than once. Simmons and Sherels were burned multiple times. Stross is coming off of a nightmare game. I am sure that isn't the homecoming he was hoping for but I imagine he will rebound nicely for Senior Day. DJK played well both as a receiver and as a returner. McNutt was fantastic. I don't understand why he is ever used in the slot. He is such a match up nightmare it seems senseless to not keep him on the perimeter. Davis and Sandeman didn't produce much but they did block well. Sandeman did have a nice run after a catch.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa: I had pretty large expectations for this group but they have exceeded them. Iowa receivers have had some pretty nice games against Minny recently and I see the trend continuing. I would love for nothing more than for the first play call be designed for Stross. He needs to be a big part of the game plan. 3 receiver sets should be the norm against this team and the Strong Safety should be attacked downfield. He can be run away from without the need for precise route running. If Iowa gets a lead they need to keep their boot on Minny's throat. I want Stross to approach DJK's day last season and Brodell's day from 2006.

TBs 32 Adam Robinson and 3 Brandon Wegher Vs. 30 MLB Lee Campbell 6 3 246 SR: Cambell is a fairly complete MLB. He can be sucked in on P/action but he has the speed to make up for a false step. He would prefer to play downhill and attack the run. He really does a nice job of sniffing out the run and using his D-line as a screen to get to the ballcarrier. If he is engaged he struggles to get off of blocks. He takes good angles to the ball and gets the ballcarrier down. He gets good depth on his zone drops. He reads the Qb's eyes well and tries to make plays on the pass. He is probably the better athlete between he and Triplett. Robinson was incredible last weekend. He was gutty and found yards after contact that shouldn't have been there. He also did a nice job of picking up the blitz in pass protection. He showed his usual good vision and didn't seem to be any worse for the wear after missing two weeks. Wegher is supposed to be a go, and it would be nice to have him as he could be a nightmare for Minny to cover in this game. He is too fast for their linebackers and would force them into some type of zone if he played the slot. He had been playing his best football before missing last week.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: If only one of these guys can go than it is a push. But these guys are really starting to understand the one cut and go philosophy of Iowa's zone scheme. That will be important because I think that Minny's D-line can do a respectable job trying to make their life miserable. However, both Robinson and Wegher have proven to be assets in the passing game and have gotten yards against tougher defenses than this one. And Iowa's Oline is coming off of its best performance.

16 QB James Vandenberg Vs. FS 3 Kim Royston 5 11 193 JR and SS 27 Kyle Theret 5 10 193 JR: Royston and Theret are very solid in both run support and pass coverage. Royston is a very good tackler, very physical, good in space and had pretty good speed. He doesn't cover well one on one. Theret is very aggressive in run support and is a good tackler. He takes very good angles and understands his limitations. He doesn't have super athleticism but he is very heady. He can make up for some of that by his instincts. He is a step slow in deep coverage and can be exploited in Cover 2. He is also vulnerable to P/action. JVB played very well last week. He made good decisions with the ball almost always. He had a physical mistake on his first two picks. He had a couple of bad reads that didn't hurt him (1 penalty, 1 great play by Moeaki). He also showed a lot of pocket presence. OSU didn't blitz him as often as Northwestern did however and Minny will probably blitz him a ton. I think if he gets help from the Oline he could have a very big day. He finds single coverage.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Minny's D is kind of like Iowa's they line up and try to out execute you. JVB has shown early that he understands the mental part of the game and he made a huge leap from in one week on the physical part. I think another week developing chemistry with this group of WRs and with a solid and aggressive gameplan he could possibly throw for 300+ yards.

94 Adrian Clayborn RDE and 91 Broderick Binns LDE Vs. 76 LT Dom Alford 6 3 336 JR and 71 RT Jeff Willis 6 7 365 JR: These guys really struggle in pass protection. Willis also is good for at least one false start a game. Willis does have a nice punch and if he can lock on to a defender it is over. He doesn't move his feet well though and he can just be run around on either side. He doesn't have good quickness. He is out of his element in the zone blocking run scheme. He needs to be able to drive block straight ahead and this style really doesn't suit him. Alford also really struggles with a speed move in PP. He also has bad feet. He also is miscast in this zone scheme. Several times he struggled to reach anyone on stretch plays. Clayborn had the best game of Iowa's D-lineman including one highlight reel trackdown of Pryor that will for sure have to be on his film review if he decides to turn pro. He must be licking his chops watching tape of Alford. Binns really struggled in the run game against OSU. Both Ballard the TE and Shugarts the RT were able to wash him or seal him out of plays for long stretches of drives. He played the contain on Pryor very well though. He should also be very excited about this weekend's opponent.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa: Clayborn and Binns will be racing each other to Weber. I am wondering if his #8 won't rub off on their jerseys'. The only thing preventing them from piling up multiple sacks will be if Ballard and Klug get them first. Clayborn has been a beast against the run most of the season also. Binns should be able to reassert himself in that phase this week.

DTs 46 Christian Ballard and 95 Karl Klug Vs. 68 LG Chris Bunders 6 3 322 SO, 53 C D.J. Burris 6 2 290 JR, 73 RG Matt Carufel 6 5 302 JR, and 78 G Ryan Orton 6 4 296 SO: This unit really struggles with pass protection as well. They do not pick up the blitz well and one of them are often left standing alone while Weber is picking himself up from a pile of opponents. They do get a decent surge in the run game. Bunders usually finds somebody at the second level and is good on the double team in the run game. He seems to understand the timing of the scheme. But in pass protection he misses cut blocks a lot, he can be run around, he doesn't have good feet and doesn't keep them moving, and I see him standing around blocking no one a lot. Burris is a pretty good run blocker. He misses a lot of his protections but is new to the position (starting at least). He is on the ground a ton though. He doesn't get to the second level well.  He has bad balance and can be easily pushed backwards in PP. He doesn't do a good job of blitz pickup or recognition. Carufel is a Notre Dame transfer and I think a H.S. teammate of Binns. He looks the part for this scheme but he doesn't play it. I don't know if he was hurt last week or just replaced. He may be the best of this trio at getting to the second level. He really struggles with speed in PP. He doesn't anchor well and can be pushed back easily. He doesn't keep his feet moving when pass blocking. Orton only played against SDSU but when he played the run blocking noticeably improved. He also struggled with PP. SDSU just kept blitzing inside and Minny never had an answer for it. Orton is listed as second team this week. Ballard and Klug played their contain against Pryor well but were pushed around in the running game on several drives by OSU's interior. Ballard showed his athleticism though by almost chasing down Pryor at least three times and causing him either throw incompletions or scramble for little to no gain. Klug also did a nice job pass rushing but never recorded a sack. He did take good angles against Pryor.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa: Klug and Ballard should be looking to stop the run first and I think they can. They are physically better than the guys they are facing. Minnesota doesn't do a ton of misdirection and the best back is a one cut and go type. When Weber drops straight back they should feast right alongside Clayborn and Binns. I am not sure who will have the most TFLs. but Ballard may be the most explosive of the group including Clayborn.

42 Jeremiha Hunter/ 33 Jeff Tarpinian WLB Vs. 48 TE Nick Tow-Arnett 6 3 248 SR: Tow-Arnett has replaced Decker as Weber's go to guy. He really runs good routes and recognizes soft spots in zones. He is a natural catching the ball away from his body and will catch the ball in traffic. He takes punishment and still makes plays. He can do something with the ball in his hands. He is an adequate blocker. He isn't going to pancake anyone but he will get in the way long enough to create a crease. He is also a decent pass protector. Hunter has been having a pretty good season. He has really improved his pass coverage and is a beast against the run. He was missed in the second half against OSU. Tarpinian is stronger in pass cover than Hunter but he doesn't have Hunter's experience or feel for diagnosing plays yet. He also took some poor angles to the ball in the OSU game and Kevin Whaley is fast enough to exploit that this week. One of these guys will be lined up around or over Tow-Arnett most of the time and they need to know where he is on the field.
Spud's Spin: Edge Gophers: NTA is well rounded enough to give him the edge here. Weber will find him no matter how well Iowa plays coverage on him because he really doesn't trust his other receivers yet. Hunter will be able to exploit him in the run game, and Tarp could cover him but neither can do both phases well enough yet to win this match up completely.

49 A.J. Edds SLB, CBs 19 Amari Speivey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 83 Da'Jon McKnight 6 3 200 SO, 1 Brandon Green 6 0 183 SO, Troy Stoudermire 5 10 183 SO, 4 Heyo Carpenter 5 11 174, 81 Bryant Allen 6 0 167 T.FR, and 16 Ben Kuznia 6 0 186 SR: McKnight, Green and Stoudermire are really the guys who are on the field the most. Kuznia is almost a tight end on the Flank. Carpenter was a heralded recruit that I have seen targeted once and he dropped the pass, and Allen looks like he could be something special working from the slot. MarQueis Gray also plays receiver.  McKnight uses his size well. He isn't afraid to go over the middle.  He is beginning to run clean routes and develop chemistry with Weber.  He can make catches in traffic and drop a ball with no one around him. Green is very quick, he is very effective out of the slot. He runs very good routes and is not afraid to work the middle of the field. He is smooth in and out of breaks.  He has very good hands and can make a catch on the move. He is dangerous with the ball in his hands. Stoudermire is very athletic and very inconsistent.  He gets open and drops passes. He makes the incredible catch and drops the routine ones. He is also very dangerous with the ball in his hands. If his is in motion they are usually trying to do something with him. Spievey actually made a mistake last week. I think he forced a run to the outside on the 50 yard TD. Tarpinian has taken a lot of the heat for that one but it looked to me like it was Spievey that lost contain. He is probably getting bored. Teams are not working his side very often. Prater played well last week also.  He could also improve a little in run support but he is a true sophmore who I think will only improve.  His cover skills will probably be tested as I expect Weber to avoid Spievey also. Lowe only played special teams last week. Edds quietly played his excellent pass coverage and was excellent in contain. His athleticism was on display several times last week when he forced Pryor out of bounds for little or no gain by taking excellent anlges and still coming at him very aggressively. He is to the Leo what Greenway is to the Weakside. The standard.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Minny's guys will get some catches, Weber is too good not to complete some against Iowa's zone. What I am looking forard to is when he tries to squeeze on in behind the corner and under the safety. He has gotten away with that throw in every game I have seen but that is a mistake against Iowa.  Iowa's tackling problems seemed to have vanished around the PSU game and they must continue to limit YAC as all of these receivers are capable of running with the ball.

43 Pat Angerer Vs. TBs 22 Duane Bennett 5 9 203 SO, 6 Kevin Whaley 5 9 179 T.FR, and 23 DeLeon Eskridge 5 9 183: Bennett is pretty much a straight ahead runner. Whaley likes to go for the edgle and Eskridge is kind of a combination of both without the total package to pull it off. Bennett is a very good receiver and has made explosive plays in the passing game. He has very good hands and they scheme to get him the ball.  He can catch the ball on the run and away from his body. As a runner he doesn't have break-away speed but he always seems to find what is there. He tries to set up his blocks but sometimes he just bulldozes ahead. He does a nice job of protecting the ball. Whaley has the home run speed. He is doesn't break a lot of tackles. He does a nice job of reading his blocks and making one cut and hitting a hole. He runs hard for his size. Eskridge has a nice initial burst but no real long speed. He doesn't break a lot of tackles. He may have the best vision of the trio. Angerer was really washed out of a lot of plays. OSU's backs did a nice job of setting up cut backs and didn't allow him to read his keys. He fought through traffic to make some plays anyway, its just that it was 4 or 5 yards downfield. I don't think he will be engaged as often by this fullback or by this O-line. He needs to be aware of the play pass though as that is a staple of this offense.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Angerer is not leaving Kinnick without knocking one of these guys two yards backwards. I can't imagine him not getting a few TFLs in this game given the circumstances and the opposition he is facing. These runners aren't as physically gifted as Herron and Saine and they certainly don't have the Oline that OSU had. Minnesota ran 48 times for 137 yards against SDSU.

9 SS Tyler Sash and 30 FS Brett Greenwood Vs 8 QB Adam Weber 6 3 221 JR: Weber is a talented player. He makes good reads, finds the open guy, uses his eyes to manipulate coverage, and has nice touch on his throws- especially the deep ball when he has time. When he has a pocket to work with he is fairly mobile in it finding a throwing lane and protects the ball well. He isn't going to kill you with his legs but he isn't afraid to run and he will finish it, too. He is a gutty player, I don't know how many times I watched him stand in and get drilled while throwing a pass but it didn't affect him until last week. He pretty accurate until last week, where even when he had time he started to feel phantom pressure and missed open receivers. He was sacked alot early but not much after that but he was still struggling to find a rhythm and seemed to get happy feet. He threw a terrible pick 6 trying to throw a safe pass avoiding pressure. He carries out his playfakes well but the running game isn't effective enough to freeze defenders right now. He can throw on the run if it is designed but he is better if he is set up. He is willing to throw to anyone on the field. Sash and Greenwood played okay last week but they didn't seem their usual selves. They diagnosed plays well but didn't always make every tackle like Hawk fans have been accostumed to. I know they are both fighting injuries and they should be able to play more coverage in this game. If the D-line is as dominant as I expect they could be calling each other off for interceptions.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Iowa's safety duo can go out and fly around because they know they have the next several weeks to heal. Weber isn't afraid to attack downfield and that usually equals interceptions for these two. Minny's running game shouldn't be effective enough for them to react to playfakes and they should be in position to play several passes early in this game.

Some terrible predictions:
1. Trey Stross 8 catches 133 yards 3 TDs and there better be a standing O for Senior Day.
2. Tony Moeaki takes out Lawrence and his back up Cooper in the first half after catching passes.
3. Colin Sandeman scores a TD on a slot jailbreak screen, sprung by Don Nordmann.
4. John Wienke enters the game in the 4th quarter and completes 5-5 for 1 td (see above) causing a trifecta QB controversy. Ferentz calls Tommy from Des Moines and asks him to name the starter for the Bowl.
5. Iowa wins and KOK retires to become a farmer after realizing what the sticker means.

Spud's Spin: I really think the Hawks are going to roll this team, but I felt like they would roll- UNI, Arky State, Indiana, and Northwestern. For some reason Kinnick has not been that kind to the Hawkeyes this season. Senior Day is always wierd, a lot of strange emotion, distractions for the players and the fans sometimes spend some of their energy a little early. If the team doesn't get off to an incredible start it can be a long game. This Minnesota team is capable of making this a game. They have a clever coaching staff and start 9 seniors on defense. They have a 3 year starting QB on offense who can be patient which is the key to executing against Iowa's D. But they also have a propensity for not blocking anyone on offense, committing 10+ penalties a game and letting receivers run down the field completely alone. So I am going to predict that the Gophers don't enjoy their bus ride here, and loathe it on the way home.  Iowa 38 Gophers 13. Congratulations Pat, Kyle C., Joe, Dan, A.J., Rafael, Chad, Bryce, Taylor, Andy, Travis, Tony, Dace, Chris, Kyle S., and Trey but most importantly THANK YOU.

Ohio State Gameplanned Iowa and Deserved to Win

2009-11-16T22:42:00.000-08:00

That was a heartbreaking game for Hawkeye fans, and even harder to go back and chart. I came away very impressed with several Buckeyes, but even more impressed with heart and tenacity of the Iowa players. They could have easily quit at several points in the game and they fought back again and again. Coach Ferentz word for this squad has been resilient but I don't think it does this team justice. These guys are fighters and they fight together as a team as well as any Iowa unit I can remember. I am only 32 and have really paid extreme (in my OCD kind of way) attention since 2000. This is my favorite Hawkeye team ever so far and it is hard to pick out individuals because it takes everyone of them to make this thing work. Today's post is going to concentrate on the defensive side of the ball.

This is going to be a long post so I am going to just address the offense and the coaching decisions in one paragragh. I am very pleased with the play of JVB but I am not suprised. I don't think that any player should lose their job due to an injury and that means in my mind, Stanzi should be the clear cut starter as soon as he is healthy enough to play and into next season. I think he is a pro prospect and would make a great developmental QB for some NFL team's roster after next season if he continues to improve his play and he avoids a catostrophic injury. The best thing that could have happened to him is the emergence of Vandenberg. I am disappointed with the decision to sit on the ball at the end of the 4th quarter. I have read and listened to all of the arguments. I understand where KF and Co. were coming from by sitting on it. I still think it was an opportunity wasted. OSU was on their heels and JVB had repeatedly attacked their best corner. He was finding single coverage and even if they rushed 3 and dropped 8 at that time I feel he would have been able to check down to Robinson for serviceable gains. Hindsight is 20/20 and I still think that Ferentz is a great coach. This will continue to be a very special season, and it is Ferentz and his staff that have gotten Iowa to this point.

Jon's article about the youth and number of skill position players left was excellent, but Iowa is potentially stronger on the other side of the ball. Even if Spievey and Clayborn leave (and I think they will) Iowa will return 7 starters next season to that side of the ball: DTs- Ballard and Klug, DE- Binns, WLB- Hunter, CB- Prater, and both Safeties- Sash and Greenwood. Iowa has depth at the corner position with the return of Bernstine from a medical red shirt, and Lowe and Hyde have impressed me in limited playing time. Tyler Nielson will have huge shoes to fill taking over for the vastly underrated A.J. Edds but I believe he has the athleticism to take his spot. It will be interesting to see if Tarpinian moves to MLB, or if Troy Johnson and Bruce Davis fight it out for that spot. Angerer will be missed for more than his play on the field, he is a great leader and a comedian off the field. Lebron Daniel and Cody Hundertmark have looked pretty decent at Defensive End in limited reps this season but they will need to make a huge leap if Clayborn does indeed leave. Daniel almost looks like Clayborn's clone physically but I don't know if he quite has his athleticism yet. At D-tackle Mike Daniels has also played well in limited appearances this season and his future looks bright.  A place on the field should be found for David Cato. He is a playmaker when he is on the field and maybe he could grow into the Leo role and Iowa could slide Nielson to MLB. Iowa also has had two very strong recruiting classes focusing on that side of the ball and another one coming in stacked with linebackers. It will be interesting to see who is relatively unknown at this point, pushing for playing time after the bowl practices and spring drills.

Now to the game. Ohio State had a very effective gameplan limiting the exposure of talented, but error prone, Terrelle Pryor. They put the game into the hands of their O-line and a True Freshman Fullback and they delivered. Iowa kept OSU off schedule( meaning forcing 3rd and long) for the first two drives and did an excellent job of containing him for most of the game. Pryor's longest pass completion was for 14 yards, and that was about the longest pass attempt. That was unfortunate for Iowa. His accuracy on his first couple of downfield throws were pretty shaky. Iowa thrives on forcing teams into third and long. They are looking to force mistakes or underneath throws where they can chase and tackle receivers for less than the yardage needed to convert. Iowa's overall #s weren't that bad but they were slightly misleading. OSU converted 8 of 17 third downs. However 3 of those were basically conceding the ball- one at the end of each half, and the overtime. Pryor did enough on third down to help the Buckeyes win the game.

When Iowa forced a third and long scenario they were generally successful. The exceptions were a 7 yard scramble by Pryor on the first third down of the 2nd Drive(bad spot also). He took advantage of a large gap left when Klug and Ballard were running a twist and scampered for just enough.
He threw a great pass to a well covered (Angerer) Sazenbacher over the middle, to get 6 yards when he needed 5 on the first 3rd down of the 3rd Drive. On the second 3rd down (3+8) of the same drive he found Posey for a 14 yard gain throwing the ball on time and to a wide open receiver. On the third 3rd down of that drive Pryor found the TB Saine on a nice little flare route in front of Spievey for 7 yards when they needed 3. On the fourth 3rd down of that drive Norm brought pressure and forced an incompletion. That lead to OSU's first field goal.

Pryor was pretty much held in check until the Third Drive of the Second Half. He converted back to back third downs. One was a scramble away from Clayborn that led to a completion to Freshman Duran Carter (who actually caught it) and the second was on a 3rd and 10. Iowa ran a twist again with the DTs and at first I thought it was a called QB draw. However Ballard the TE is running a route and doesn't block anyone until Pryor is on his back so I think credit should just be given to TP for seeing some space and making a play. He also made a nice move on Angerer on his way to 19 yards. The next play was Dan Herron's Wildcat TD. I felt like Iowa lined up wrong on this formation. Either they saw something I didn't or were expecting something tricky. OSU ran basically an off tackle run every time they lined up in this formation and Iowa didn't line up a linebacker over the TEs on this formation and had Edds to the wide side of the field and away from the action. Tarpinian may have taken a bad angle, but a healthy Greenwood and Sash probably stop this for a loss anyway.

Tarpinian has also taken some heat for the next TD, a lead play where Brandon Saine went for 50 yards. He didn't take a very good angle, but I actually think that Amari Spievey should have forced the run back to the inside and is just as guilty of taking a bad angle as Tarp on that play. Edds and Clayborn were also blocked very well by OSU on that play. I actually thought Tarpinian played pretty well. He took on the fullback as well as any of the Iowa linebackers and that includes Hunter. He diagnosed plays well, he just didn't always take the best route to the ballcarrier. The longer he was in the game the better he played. I think he will have a very strong senior year.

OSU deserves much of the credit for Iowa's defense not playing up to the level Iowa fans' are accustomed to. Iowa couldn't stop them from running from Power based formations and consequently took the ball out of Pryor's hands. The Boren brothers, #65 Justin and #44 Zach, consistently took Pat Angerer out of plays or made him make tackles 5-8 yards beyond the LOS. OSU's entire Oline played much better than I expected and the only Iowa D-lineman to consistently win his matchup was Clayborn. Klug played well in flashes, but both he and Ballard were handled for much of the game. Binns also flashed at times but he was driven off the LOS more times than not. One of two things could happen to help these guys. More players could be rotated in to help keep them fresh, or they must get physically stronger and trade some explosiveness for the ability to anchor against the run. I would prefer more bodies.

Dan Herron and Brandon Saine also deserve a lot of credit for setting up cut back lanes and for excellent vision. They consistently pressed a hole over one guard and skipped to the opposite guard, allowing the Iowa linebackers to overpursue and get caught out of position. They both displayed excellent vision and did this time after time. They almost ran the Wisconsin Counter play with out pulling guards. Herron especially deserves credit for running physically and carrying the pile. I would be curious to see how many yards after contact he accumulated.

Iowa's coaching staff stuck to their guns. They kept the safety out of the box and most of the time still had Edds over the slot when OSU came out with twin receivers running Power formations. I am not sure if Iowa running 8 in the box would have made much of a difference in this game.  One, it isn't what the Hawks do and might create more confusion than benefit and two, they still had to defeat the guys who were blocking them and for most of the 2nd and 3rd quarter that didn't happen.  Norm calls more defenses than people realize but OSU never really gave them a chance in this game because they consistently were in 3rd and short or didn't have 3rd downs at all. I am not sure schematically there was much the coaches could do in this game. I would have liked to see them try something but ultimately the defense kept Iowa in the game. Iowa had a chance to win and didn't. They have nothing to be ashamed of. But I think it will be a long time before I see the Hawks get physically beaten at the line of scrimmage again.

Iowa has had a lot to overcome this season. I am not sure that having Stanzi in this game would have helped Iowa that much. Iowa shot them selves in the foot several times offensively with drops and penalties. They didn't force a TO and committed 3. They had only one healthy running back.  And OSU still needed OT to put the Hawkeyes down. There is so much to be proud of if you are a Hawkeye fan. Wherever this team goes bowling I would hate to be the team that faces them. If this team gets relatively healthy this bowl game most likely will be a repeat of the last one. First things first, Iowa must protect the pig. I will tell you about Minny on Thursday. Thanks for reading these so far.

Ohio State Vs Iowa Match Ups

2009-11-11T22:03:00.000-08:00

If you aren't busy around 2:30 there is a football game you might be interested in. It has some minor implications to the Big Ten Championship, but otherwise really shouldn't be all that interesting. Iowa comes in limping, literally and figuratively, after a crushing loss to Northwestern and Ohio State comes in very confident after physically dominating a pretty good Penn State team in Happy Valley. In my opinion this is a match up featuring the two best defenses in the Big Ten. Ohio State has a fearsome front line that is actually 5 deep. The headliner of the squad however is Terrell Pryor, the mobile QB and he certainly merits the attention. How how Iowa contains Pryor on defense and if they can pass protect on offense will determine if this is a game in the second half.

Offensively the Buckeyes use a lot of Shotgun formations. They will use several variations but like to keep a tight end on the field. When they run under center they split 50/50 between I formations and two tight ends. When they go I they almost always have "twin" receiver sets. The most common "Ace" formation is a heavy bunch set with a staggered Tight end off set by a Wing and a tight Wide out.
They don't have a lot of variation to their running game. When they are in Shotgun the Oline uses a zone scheme and they are generally running some type of read option or a speed option. They also have called QB draws but their most effective running plays this season have been when Pryor pulls the ball down on called passing plays. When they run out of the I they usually man block with a guard pulling. Their Fullback #44 Zach Boren is a very effective lead blocker and doesn't often miss his assignment. When they use their Ace Bunch scheme they have three basic runs. A lead over the strong side with the weak side guard pulling, a strong- side toss sweep, and a counter play with both the strong side guard and tackle pulling. This is very similar to the play Wisconsin had a lot of success with in the beginning of that game. I haven't seen the boot but I know its coming.
OSU doesn't have a real complicated passing scheme. Pryor doesn't sell playaction well. The will roll him out on occasion but he is most comfortable from the Shotgun. If #8 Posey is in the slot something is coming his way. He doesn't line up there often and it is usually some type of slot screen. OSU's best pass play is usually just a bomb lobbed for Posey. #12 Sazenbacher runs decent routes but Pryor doesn't seem comfortable working the middle of the field. The tight ends aren't often involved in the passing game by design.

Defensively OSU runs a base 4-3 scheme out of a 3-4 look. The weak side end is often in a 2 point stance but it is rare that he doens't rush or play contain responsibilities. Against traditional schemes they play their Sam LB over the TE like Iowa. If they go 4-3 against a 3 wide look the Sam lines up over the slot unless they are blitzing. If he isn't on the slot something is coming and they are usually in man cover. On obvious passing situations they go to a 3-3-5 look with sometime 2 men down sometimes 3 and sometimes 4. They are very good about disguising blitzs. They have a lot of talent on that side of the ball and they play alot of players in the secondary but they don't tip their hand by who is in the game. They trust any of their players to man up anyone they are matched with although they try to play two deep safeties often. I think their linebacking unit is solid, not spectacular. If you had their DC alone after too many beers, I bet he would admit he would rather have Iowa's players. They are pretty quick and they hustle, though. The whole team hustles to the ball. It is like watching Iowa. They rally to the ball better than any team I have watched all season. Heyward and Worthington can be unblockable at times and they move around. #43 Nate Williams looks like a young Matt Roth. He is going to be a player to watch in this game. #4 Kurt Coleman is a steady player but this secondary benefits from the pressure the front 4 generate. He doesn't flash to me and is slower to read the run than the other safeties he plays with.

Special teams is an area where Iowa may be able to gain an advantage. There kicking game is struggling and they can't reliably make a field goal over 40 yards right now with the injury to regular K Aarron Pettrey. Replacement Devin Barclay has looked shaky and may not be counted on to finish drives. He has looked fine on kick offs and they have a pretty solid cover unit. DJK has looked like he was a block or a stumble away from making big plays over the last couple of weeks and if he were to break one this week it would be a big morale boost to the entire team.
The punter Jon Thoma is decent and he gets a lot of air under the ball preventing returns. The cover unit is also outstanding. Given that Iowa really doesn't have an established returner here I would give OSU a huge edge here.
Ray Small is an outstanding returner on both punt and kick returns. He is fast, shifty and sets up blocks very, very well. He also gets good blocking from both units and they are the rare return unit that isn't flagged every other return. Iowa must contain him especially on the Kick Offs and make OSU execute for 70 to 80 yards a drive.

The Match Ups:

79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT VS. 97 Cameron Heyward 6'6 287 DE/DT JR, 90 Thad Gibson 6'2 240 WDE JR, 43 Nathan Williams 6'3 245 DE SO: Heyward is the key here. He lines up anywhere on the front line and is extremely disruptive. He also prepares very well and understands what the other team is trying to do. When he is playing DE he plays his responsibility first, he doesn't crash in on the running game. He pretty much just bull rushes but he has really long arms and uses them well. He has a great first step and is explosive for his size. He sets up his blocker all game long taking different routes to the QB. In the run game he shoots gaps and disrupts. He carries lineman and can make tackles while engaged. He is the best d-lineman Iowa has faced this season and they have faced some good ones. Gibson and Williams line up in a 2 point stance a lot. Gibson is the more likely of the two to drop into coverage and he looks good doing it. He is a very good athlete. He is really fast but tries to beat tackles to the outside every time. He is agile enough to turn the corner in a hurry. He shed's blocks from TEs well but can be handled by Olineman in the run game. Given another off-season to bulk up, he could be a better college player than Gholston was. Williams was the guy who really flashed to me, though. I hadn't heard of him and all I saw was him living in the other teams' backfield on passing situations. He can rush from either side and from a two point stance or with his hand on the ground. He is cat quick and uses his hands very well. He is relentless and never gives up on a play. Calloway has struggled with speed rushers and he will be facing two in Williams and Gibson. I thought he handled Wootton for most of the day, and Davie rarely rushed for NW. Calloway probably had the best game of all of the Iowa lineman last week. Bulaga will be lineman matched up with Heyward most often. He has the tools to handle him and if he could keep him quiet that would go a long way towards making JVB's first start easier. Bulaga has the feet to handle the speed of the other two. What Calloway and Bulaga need to work on is seeing the blitz and getting the inside guy first. The whole line needs help with that though.
Spud's Spin: Push. I think the bookends for Iowa can hold their own in both phases of the game. In fact I think Calloway can dominate Gibson and Williams in the running game. It all hinges on how well they pass protect. Both of these guys are Sunday players and possibly even high round selections. If they are playing their best football they can handle anything OSU throws at them.

77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs. DTs 84 Doug Worthington 6'6 276 SR, 92 Todd Denlinger 6'2 292 SR, and 54 John Simon 6'3 274 True FR: Worthington is the standout of this group. He is long armed and very quick off the ball. He is very athletic- he dropped into coverage a few times in zone blitzs. He also plays very well while engaged. He hustles too, he will make a play 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Denlinger is a two down player. He comes off in obvious passing downs. He is a decent run stuffer who plays low and flows down the LOS against a zone scheme closing off cut back lanes on runs that flow away from him. He isn't a great athlete, he is a try hard guy. Simon is a very good athlete who is getting decent playing time as a true freshman and playing both interior spots. He gets off the ball well but is better suited to rush the passer than to stop the run right now. He can be pushed off the ball. Reiff, Eubanks and Vandervelde had a rough go of it against NW. I assume that Eubanks is in charge of line calls and he needs to do a really good job on Saturday because I don't think you want a R.Fr QB calling out protections with everything else he has on his plate. The Hawkeye Interior really struggled with identifying blitzers when the Wildcats ran zone schemes at them in a 3-3-5 look and that is OSU's basic Nickel package. They must do a better job communicating this weekend. I think if these guys can get a push in the run game they can do a very good job on OSU's linebackers. I think that Eubanks has really come on with his run blocking recently and that Vandervelde has turned the corner in that phase of the game also. KOK could help them out formationally by getting a seventh or eight defender out of the box in this game. Reiff is getting a better push than I initially gave him credit for but he will have his hands full in this game.
Spud's Spin: Edge OSU. I went into this thinking the Buck's would have a much bigger advantage here and they still could. Worthington is a beast and Heyward spends half of his time lined up as a DT. It is almost more important for Eubanks to call out where Heyward is than it is for him to block someone. When Denlinger is in the game Iowa needs to run to his side and cut Heyward and make sure he is on the ground. That would usually mean a run to Calloway's side. Iowa cannot give up on the run too early, as OSU's LBs and Safeties can be exploited if they actually have to make plays.

81 Tony Moeaki Vs. 38 Austin Spitler 6'3 234 SLB: Spitler is a tough player who reads plays well but is over aggressive and can take bad angles to the ball. He has very good speed and lateral quickness and is a very good tackler but he isn't scary physical. He (and this whole linebacking corps) is a drag down tackler and he can be run through. He is usually pretty sound though. He is very good in pass coverage and looks comfotable in space. Moeaki has been gameplanned effectively by the opposing team since the Michigan game. His only catches are coming on playaction when teams are drastically fooled. He runs good routes but he has been bracketed almost every time he has gone out and has stayed in and protected on 33% of Iowa's passing plays in the last two games. He has done a pretty good job of pass blocking and an excellent job run blocking.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I know Hawkeye fans are getting restless with the lack of attention that TM has gotten in the passing game recently but it has opened things up for the outside receivers and they have been taking advantage. Iowa is also trying to do things to get him open. Tony has a physical advantage and is just as athletic as Spitler, he can take him out on Strong side running plays. If he is the hot read in a blitz scenario he needs to make a play after the catch for Iowa to be successful. I have a feeling he will be a leading character in this game as OSU hasn't seemed to scheme for any one player this season.

82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 51 Ross Homan 6'0 230 WLB JR: Homan is their best LB in my opinion. He is very assignment sound and more athletic than he looks. He is the best at sifting through traffic and he makes plays with blockers on him. He is also very aggressive and can be caught on playaction. He stays in on Nickel and gets good depth on zone covers. He doesn't look out of place playing man but it isn't something he is asked to do often. He doesn't miss a lot of tackles. He reads plays very well and is another guy who never gives up on a play. Reisner and Morse do a lot of blocking on the backside of running plays and they may want to stick to this guy for an extra second or so if he is their assignment. Morse has been struggling a little after his strong start and needs to reassert himself with some of the physical lead blocking he is capable of. Reisner needs to be an outlet for a young QB and neither can afford to drop a pass if it comes their way.
Spud's Spin: Edge OSU. Homan is going to make tackles and these two need to make sure they aren't TFL's. Homan diagnoses the run pretty well and Iowa tends to tip the run with motion so he could have a field day if he isn't blocked well. Morse and Reisner must not miss an assignment in pass protection. That could lead directly to a turnover in this game. Turnovers = loss.

15 DJK, 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 6 Keenan Davis, and 22 Colin Sandeman Vs. CBs 5 Chimdi Chekwa 6'0 188 JR, 10 Devin Torrence 6'1 193 JR, NB/S 7 Jermale Hines 6'2 210 JR, 13 Andre Amos 6'1 183 Sr: The one thing all of these guys have in common is they are tall for corners. Chekwa is fast and aggressive, he likes to press and he can do it well. OSU plays a lot of Cover 2 and they let Chekwa disrupt routes with physical play. He has good make up speed and likes to read the QB. Torrence isn't nearly as aggressive and he gives more space on his side. He is quick but he doesn't have the awareness or closing speed of Chekwa yet. Hines is a safety but he plays over the slot in the Nickel package and he has very good closing speed. He understands route combos, but he plays his responsibilities and doesn't seem to jump off of his man. He looks stiff when he is asked to turn and run with a receiver downfield. Amos must be hurt because he is hardly ever on the field and I rememer looking pretty solid in limited appearances before his injury last season. This unit excells in zone coverage and they usually get very solid safety play behind them so they can take some chances. I don't know if Sandeman will play but it would be nice to have him back returning punts. DJK and Stross are Ohio natives and you know this game means a lot to them. McNutt has really impressed me more every week as I watch the little things he does on his route running. Davis ran good routes last week he just didn't get a chance to catch any passes as the only ball thrown his way was more of a throw away than a real attempt to complete a pass. All of these guys continue to do a great job in the run phase.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Chekwa is good. I would prefer that Iowa take limited shots to his side of the field and if they do they are downfield. Torrence and Hines can be exploited and if they are in man should be targeted. Hines especially could be vulnerable to double moves out of the slot if Iowa hits a couple of early quick passes in his area. The Key is for JVB to have time to take advantage of longer routes developing. Iowa must have an outlet designed in every play.

TBs 3 Brandon Wegher and 32 Adam Robinson Vs. 36 Brian Rolle 5'11 221 MLB Jr: Rolle is very fast and he is very good in pass coverage but I think he is overrated. When he appears on post season awards lists is is completely due to the players on OSU's front line. He is rarely engaged by a lineman and when he is it is over. He runs around traffic and consequently overpursues often. He is very fast for a MLB. He has the speed to make up for a false step or two in play action. He stays on the field for Nickel. I don't have any super secret information that Robinson is playing, I am just reading between the lines of some articles I have read and looking at how soon Moeaki came back from a similar injury. If Robinson can give Iowa two series a half it could make all the difference in the world. Wegher is playing well. He doesn't always pick the best hole but he is a true freshman running in an entirely new scheme for him. He has stopped trying to be faster than every one and is truly making one cut and getting up the field. He lost his first fumble last week in his tenth game and it was questionable (I thought he lost it). On the TD that was called back he showed the speed and burst that recruitniks have been telling the casual fan about. He isn't going to outrun too many OSU defenders but if he can consistently find 3-4 yards a pop that would be huge in this game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. First I don't think Rolle is that good. He is pretty good, but not outstanding "man I wish he was on my team" (Sean Lee, Navarro Bowman, Greg Jones) good. Second if Robinson plays a single series and gets any kind of positive yardage it will give the Offense a mental push. Finally I think that Wegher has gotten better every week and the way He and Robinson were alternated has prevented him from hitting any kind of "freshman wall" and could find success both as a runner and a receiver.

16 James Vandenberg QB (6'3 205) Vs. 4 Kurt Coleman 5'11 188 SS SR and 21 Anderson Russell 6'0 205 FS SR: Coleman is a very good player, he is a sound tackler who understands his role and doesn't try to do too much. He is very good in coverage and plays a devastating centerfield. He is great at reading a QB's eyes and breaking on long passes. He rarely lets anyone behind him when he is zone cover. Russell is the box safety. He isn't extremely physical and it wouldn't shock me for Hines to start instead of him. He is really fast. He can play man cover over a slot or an outsider receiver. This is basically his 4th season as a starter so he has plenty of experience. Vandy needs to know where these guys are on the field and what it means to him. OSU plays a lot of Cover 2 but I saw plenty of defenses called and many of them were very well disguised. If he decides to take a shot downfield and test one of these guys I would prefer it be Russell because Coleman is a playmaker.
Spud's Spin: Edge OSU. This could be a huge edge depending on how aggressively Co-DCs Jim Heacock and Luke Hickell choose to be. I think they should try to confuse JVB and Iowa's line with as many looks as possible. Northwestern really had a lot of success with zone blitzes. That certainly isn't a foriegn concept to this team and is a natural call given the front they present on all three downs. If they come out and play 2 deep with 7 or 8 in coverage I think they are playing into Iowa's hands. I think Vandy is smart and can be accurate if he is given the chance to get a rhythm in this game. He came out hot after halftime of the NW game and NW began attacking after that. If you think Iowa is conservative you haven't watched a lot of Buckeye football.

94 Adrian Clayborn RDE and 91 Broderick Binns LDE Vs. 64 Jim Cordle 6'4 297 LT SR and 76 J.B. Shugarts 6'8 298 RT SO: Cordle has move to left tackle this season from center and the results have been somewhat mixed. He has really good feet and quickness but can be overwhelmed by physical pass rushers. He is a technical run blocker and isn't going to get a lot of pancakes in the run game. He has been fighting injuries all season. Shugarts has slow feet and is unsure of himself in pass protection. He has really long arms though and he has a good punch. If he can lock on, he generally wins. He plays a little high in the run game and doesn't generate the kind of push that you would expect. He isn't real effective in the second level due to his feet. Both Clayborn and Binns got Sacks last week against a scheme that is designed to get rid of the ball. Clayborn was in the backfield all day long and really played well. Binns also played pretty well but he struggled a little against the run. I kept thinking he was going to pick off one of those slants or outs and completely change the game. He is very technically sound for a first year starter and a redshirt sophmore at that.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Clayborn and Binns are the exact kind of match up that each player for OSU struggles with individually. While they could have a free path to the QB they must play contain first and eliminate Pryor's rushing yards on broken passing plays. It is fine for him to get some on designed runs because then Iowa can hit him, but Iowa needs to keep Pryor in the pocket and throwing downfield.

DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs.65 LG Justin Boren 6'3 315 JR, 50 C Mike Brewster 6'5 296 SO, and 70 RG Bryant Browning 6'4 312: Boren is the best player of this group. He is a physical run blocker and the most consistent pass protector. He does a nice job of finding someone to hit when he pulls and finishes his blocks with some nastiness. Brewster and Browning struggle in both phases. Browing has slow feet and really struggles when he is asked to pull. None of these guys excell at getting to the second level when they run their zone scheme out of the shotgun. Browning really struggles with pass protection. He has slow feet and loses his balance easily. Ballard and Klug played well against NU but they will be tested here. They really need to stop the inside run as that is the key to OSU's scheme outside of shotgun. They also need to be involved in the contain phase as Pryor likes to run up the middle if he is flushed. Daniels has come on in spot duty with Ballard sometimes sliding out to DE and has done a nice job. He needs to play contain first and not run himself out of the play if he gets a good pass rush.

Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This would be larger if not for Pryor's escapability. It is more important for Klug and Ballard to stop the run, especially early, than to rush the passer. They should be able to dominate the players in front of them but they must stay in their lanes on the pass rush. Daniels is quietly having a solid season backing these two up.

42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 86 Jake Ballard 6'6 256 TE SR: Ballard might as well be another offensive tackle. He is kept in to block a lot. He has decent hands, he just isn't often a target in the passing game. OSU doesn't run a lot of balanced formations so this match up doesn't totally make sense, for the most part it will be Angerer or Edds lined up on Ballard. #11 Jacob Stoneburner is the second TE and I talked about the Fullback Boren in the offensive breakdown. Hunter is reading his run keys really well and this will be a nice change of pace for him. If Greenwood is back I think it will make him more aggressive. I saw him trying to hide behind Binns a few times as if he was unsure if he had safety help of some stretch type runs against NU. Early this season he was attacking those. He also is Iowa's best linebacker at attacking Power formations and really takes on blockers well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Hunter will lead the team in tackles. Hopefully most of them are for little to no gain. I think he is going to be busy. I expect a lot of option to the weak side of OSU's formation and Hunter is going to have to be the guy who stops that play dead in its tracks. He is also going to have to attack the run in OSU's traditional sets. If he can beat there lineman to there spots he could pile up the TFLs.

49 SLB A.J. Edds and CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 8 Devier Posey 6'3 205 SO, 12 Dane Sazenbacher 5'11 175 JR, 82 Ray Small 5'11 180 SR, and 9 Duron Carter 6'2 183 FR: Posey is a stud. He is probably the #1, 2 and 3 option on every passing play. I am not sure if he runs great routes or he is just that athletic. He gets behind coverage in every game. He makes catches in traffic and is the one player I fear with the ball in his hands. I wish he was a year older so he was gone after this season. Sazenbacher is a good route runner and tough blocker. He is wasted in this offense right now because TP is uncomfortable throwing over the middle where this guy should be making his living. Small is a better returner than a receiver and looks disinterested if he's not the primary call. He is shifty after the catch but needs lots of space to work. Carter is the son of NFLer Chris and I think that is why he is playing. His dad "just caught touchdown" passes and he just drops passes. He is a true Freshman. Iowa had some success blitzing Edds against NU and I think they should do that again when OSU is in shotgun. Pryor isn't going to beat you with his mind but he can throw the ball about 70 yards with a nice arc and they try it about 8 times a game. They are bound to get lucky once unless TP is to gunshy to let that develop. This is the kind of game that Spievey has to be relishing. I guarantee if they throw his way he will have at least one pick. Prater also should be excited as this won't be the disciplined short passing game he had to face last week. I thought he did well last week. Lowe played only a little last week on defense as he and Hyde came in on one down for a dime package. I don't expect to see a lot of Nickel this week either. He has come a long way in a few short weeks since being picked on at Arky State.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Posey is the only thing keeping it from being a huge edge. Iowa is much more talented in this area than PSU or Purdue or Wisconsin for that matter. Spievey will open up some eyes on a national level. Edds apparently already has. Look in they 11-11 links at the one I posted. Prater is going to have to play big in this game but he hasn't given me a reason all season for me to think he won't.

43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 3 Brandon Saine 6'1 217 JR, 1 Dan "Boom" Herron 5'10 197 SO, and 29 Jordan Hall 5'9 180 FR: Saine is a tough runner. He has good feet and decent vision, and when he gets a head of steam he falls foward. He struggles in pass protection. Herron and Saine or of the same mold but Herron is a little more explosive early. Neither has stunning breakaway speed. I understand Herron is nursing an injury but he has never impressed me. Jordan Hall is the guy to fear here. He is a true freshman and seems to have the most patience of the three. He is shifty in the hole and has an incredible burst. He does possess the home run speed. He isn't going to break a lot of tackles though, he is looking to juke someone or run around them. I am not sure he has all the protections down because he isn't often asked to stay in and block. These guys are rarely thrown a pass. Angerer has continued to play outstanding. He showed great acceleration on his blitzes last week taking out Persa on one of them. He finishes plays. He sheds traffic about as well as anyone not named Greg Jones in the Big Ten. He is going to have to play the run extra aggressively in this game because TP rarely throws into his zone. I wouldn't be shocked to see him blitz 5- 8 times again in this game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Angerer will get his tackles. He needs to get them at the LOS or behind it. I would love to see him spy TP but Iowa hasn't really done that to anyone all year. He has the make up speed to get fooled in Playaction but Pryor really doesn't sell it well anyway. If Ballard and Klug take out the two guards and center Hunter and Angerer will feast in this game.

9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood/ 20 Joe Conklin FS Vs. 2 QB Terrelle Pryor 6'6 235 SO: Pryor is very physically gifted. As a passer, he has an amazing touch and range on his deep ball. He has above average arm strength but if you had a radar gun it wouldn't suprise me if JVB had the bigger gun. He is much more comfortable passing out of the shotgun. From under center his footwork can be a little sloppy and he isn't an accurate passer from anywhere. He is very streaky. He stares down his first read a lot. More than Stanzi a lot. He is a pick waiting to happen. He really doesn't like the middle of the field, he works the edges and the deep ball on either hash- to the sideline. What makes him special though is he running. He doesn't look fast but he eats up a lot of ground with each stride. He is very nimble for his size and has very good quickness and suddenness. He makes great reads in the option game. He is most dangerous after he pulls the ball down on a called pass. He almost always breaks contain and the next defender miss. He is strong enough to break arm tackles He does a good job of protecting himself. Sash is playing about as good as any safety in the nation. He has 6 picks this season and diagnoses plays faster than any other safety I have scouted. He goes from Centerfielder to runstopper in the blink of an eye and he rarely misses a tackle. Greenwood was beginning to get the recoginition he deserved before his injury. He really made a leap from last season to this one. He is another player who diagnoses plays well and closes gaps fast. With him in there the LBs can be more aggressive chasing TP around. I think Conklin has been very good in coverage. He hasn't tried to do too much and keeps the play in front of him. He made a nice catch on his pick last weekend. He doesn't have the game experience that Sash and Greenwood have yet to make the snap decision on run/pass and it shows. I think he is also a step slower physically. In this game that will equal two steps slow and that could be the margin if Iowa's offense holds up their end.
Spud's Spin: Edge Push if Greenwood plays, Edge OSU if Conklin is in the whole game. Tressel will be smart enough to run his Shotgun speed options away from both Sash and Edds, negating there read and speed abilities. Pryor has played within himself and has the playmakers to help him win this game if he doesn't try to do it all himself. I think Iowa has a good chance of pressuring him into mistakes. Its how he handles the adversity that will show how far he has come this season. If OSU gameplans around Sash and protects Pryor 3 out of 4 passes Iowa cannot win this game.

Some Terrible Predictions:
1. Jeremiha Hunter 18 tackles 5 TFL 2FF amd 2 sacks BTDPOW
2. Adrian Clayborn hits Pryor with his shoulder nearly scalping him and will again be flagged for it.
3. Devier Posey will have more catches than the rest of his teammates combined 6.
4. Brian Rolle will tackle Brandon Wegher for a 3 yard gain and we will hear how awesome he is. He will have 14 less tackles than Hunter.
5. Trey Stross will score the winning TD with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter on an out and up from the slot. It will be the last points either team scores.

Spud's Spin: An already tought task got tougher last weekend with around 11:54 seconds left on the gameclock in the second quarter. When Stanzi went down the Hawks played like they had been punched in the gut for the rest of the first half. The second half was a different story. They moved the ball better than you remember taking only one three and out on the second series of the second half. This game absolutely hinges on the play of both lines on either side. Each D-line has a decided advantage over the other teams' O-line. But there is a reason Iowa is 9-1 and it isn't all Ricky Stanzi. Iowa's defense is the best of the Ferentz era. They have been put in bad spot after bad spot and they continue to respond. OSU is coming in overconfident in this game. Pryor, Posey, Herron, Brewster, Boren, Heyward, and Worthington none of these guys have played Iowa. They don't know what its like, they have only heard. Iowa's Oline has been getting a lot of criticism and much of it is fair. I bet they come out and push OSU around on the first drive at least. If that happens KOK needs to ride that for as long as he can. Some of the criticism is unfair. I don't know how many times it has been between a safety and Wegher or Robinson for a big play and the safety has won, but when that is the case the O-line has done its job and I have seen plenty of that this season, too. This season's run struggles aren't entirely the fault of the O-line. This is Ohio State in the 'Shoe and I know Iowa is supposed go in meekly like a lamb to slaughter. I just don't see it this season.
Iowa 17 OSU 10 poor Reece Davis having to wipe the spittle off of his face.

All Hope Is Not Yet Lost

2009-11-09T23:05:00.000-08:00

I wasn't planning on writing this post. In fact I had two in the can,and was looking foward to having a relatively easy week. This post is going to concentrate on the play of James Vandenberg. I have read alot of message board critiques of his play some of them fair and some of them so far off the mark I don't know what game those people were watching. My initial impression was that he didn't lose the game. I did my regular review of the game and then watched every throw at least once more and usually two to three times. I came away even more impressed. I thought he made two bad decisions all day. One on his first throw and one forcing the ball to DJK on the desperation drive 3rd and 10 on the last series. I have every one of his plays charted and will try to post that on the message board eventually but it will take forever and there is to much to get to in this post tonight. First to wrap up the NU game.

I hate Northwestern. But I tip my hat to them. Pat Fitzgerald, Mick McCall and Mike Hankwitz ran a very effective scheme against Iowa both offensively and defensively. Once Stanzi went down they started bleeding the clock immediately. I am pretty sure they didn't have that many running plays worked into their regular gameplan. Hankwitz also ran a very clever blitz scheme, but he lucked into some of those calls in the second half. Wootton deserves all the praise he garners, Phillips is a very smart and solid football player who is much better in coverage than I had anticipated. Hahn and Bryant did an excellent job of clogging up the middle and Iowa inexplicably chose this opponent to run the most middle runs of the season. I thought Mabin played well but he was beaten badly a couple of times. NU lucked out a little too. It is tough to use the injury excuse on a team that is more beaten up than Iowa, though. Kafka was a shadow of himself and Concannon is gutty, but he won't be their feature back next season. Their Oline did just enough to keep them on the field, too. In the end they won the game with disciplined play and some clever zone blitz schemes that Iowa's line never figured out.

Before I get to the meat of this post I want to address the biggest controversy of the game: KOK's playcall at the 6 that ended Stanzi's season. I know what I said about Wootton. I am tired of reading how that is the same playcall that worked against Indiana. It isn't, its a different play and completely different formation. Iowa had Morse in as a 3rd Tight End and before the play you can see Reisner say something to him before the play. I am sure that one of them is supposed to get a better chip on Wootton but Stanzi is responsible for Wootton on that type of play and he had time to ditch the ball. JVB had more throw-aways in this game than Stanzi has in his career and that was a clear case of some of his issues catching up to him. Again his head came around late. He could have chucked it away without fear of penalty- he had both Reisner and Morse in the area. And you would hope he would be aware that Wootton is on that side of the field on that kind of playcall. I am sorry he is hurt. He probably would have won this game for us. But the playcall in itself ( while kind of dumb) shows the confidence the staff has in him. He didn't live up to his end of the bargain there. I understand that is pretty harsh. I have watched the play proabably 50 times and I can't see it any other way. If he didn't like what he saw there he had the option to audible to the run. NW had 2 deep safeties there. Live to play another day.

The other big play was the hold on Eubanks. That was a terrible call and again sucked the life out of the Hawks. The ref had a poor angle and that looked like a good old fashioned pancake to me. The 11-09 daily links has some excellent articles today that are relevant to a lot of what I am discussing here and one of them (I can't recall which one) has some classy quotes from Eubanks taking the high road. It is hard not to like these kids.

Marc Morehouse has an excellent column about the subject of the rest of today's post that can be reached from the same link. Again I am going to throw some #s at you that won't match up to the game stats.
I am going to try to do a column type deal here and every time I have tried this it has failed. I apologize in advance. What I am trying to establish here is that while the general feeling was that JVB was unprepared, I disagree with that sentiment and apparently so did the coaching staff. While the game circumstances were certainly different I am going to try to show run/pass break down, first down passes called and how often Stanzi and JVB throw to their first read.

Name       Formations       Runs       Passes     P/action     1rst Read   Play Variation      1rst Down Passes
Stanzi        10                    9            10            4               5                18                       4/9
1h JVB      8                     6             5              1               1               11                        3/5
2h JVB*    7                    8             17            3                7              23                        6/10
LD JVB     2                     0             8             0                5              6                          2/2
*doesn't include last drive LD is the last drive.
I guess what I am trying to explain here is that Vandenberg ran at least 34 plays from 10 formations before the last drive. Most of those were passes, and several were runs that I hadn't seen very often if ever from this Iowa staff. To put that into perspective- Stanzi ran 15 formations, 45 different play calls in an entire game last week. There was only one formation that Stanzi ran in this game that Vandenberg didn't and it was a 2 tight end I formation that Iowa has shown one pass out of all season. He seemed to understand what he was doing running the offense. I didn't see any fumbled snaps or poor timing on hand offs. He has some coachable flaws. His grasp of the offense doesn't seem to be that much of an issue. It looks like he prepares very well.

Iowa ran essentially the same scheme with Vandenberg as it did with Stanzi.  I think KOK tried to take advantage of his ability to throw the out a little more often and I didn't expect that arm strength. Stanzi makes more run audibles. I don't think it matters as teams are on to them as it seems to be the Hawk's only audible- run to the short side if it is a pass, opposite side if it was a run. I saw only one audible out of Vandy and that was on the second play. It went for 10 yards. I have seen Vandy take some heat for bouncing a couple of balls but if you watch the game again you would realize that #98 Bryant goes completely unblocked on 3 step drops twice (between Eubanks and Vandervelde) and hurries a throw that where pressure shouldn't be an issue. One was from the Empty set on a zone blitz ( he identified a hot receiver Moeaki just didn't have time to set and fire) and the second was from the I formation (pass intended for DJK 7-8 yard hitch).

The encouraging thing to me in this game was that almost every time he threw to a receiver it was a good read, after his first throw (that was a bad playcall imo). He had a couple of outstanding throws from the opposite hash- one to McNutt where he threw the ball before he made his break, and one to DJK where he threw off his back foot while being pressured that was incomplete. He also threw a ball to Moeaki that was on the money before he made his break (the play on the last drive where his Jersey was grabbed). Unless he was making a 3 step drop he rarely stared down his receiver and even looked off a safety on his long miss to McNutt in the First Half. He is very poised for someone of his experience level. While he might give up on a play too early, when he scrambles his eyes are almost always downfield. Some of his best decisions were to throw the ball out of bounds. With the defense he has behind him he can afford to live for the next drive. He was able to throw to either side of the field, although he seemed afraid to test the deep middle after his pick. I am not exactly Ron Jaworski but on his 30 called passing attempts I thought that he had only two terrible throws. He made winning decisions.

On the discouraging end, he could use some touch on his shorter passes. He hit DJK on a crossing pattern that ended up for nice gain but I think he was bailed out on that catch. He was almost picked on the last drive after drilling Stross from about 8 yards away on the same route. His first interception needed to be dropped in over the second level, not thrown through it. He could probably check down to an outlet receiver some of the times he threw the ball out of bounds but it looked like to me he was only being asked to read one half of the field. He isn't going to win a footrace with too many linebackers. But, he showed decent pocket awareness, although he was flushed from phantom pressure at least four times. That will come with more game experience. He also missed a wide open DJK for a game tying TD. He wasn't just a little open either. He could have put a lot more air under that pass. I hope that too will come with time.

What JVB can't possibly possess right now is Stanzi's leadership or intangibles. Stanzi just flat out wins games. I think in spite of all of the foolish things he does, he still will go down as one of the greatest Iowa QBs ever. He had a 13 game win streak, he has freakish composure and has some incredible physical abilities. Vandenberg doesn't yet have Stanzi's touch on the deep ball or his confidence to audible out of bad plays. That may come this season but I am not sure. He certainly didn't have Stanzi's 2 minute magic but I am not sure how much of that goes on him.

I don't feel like he was put in the best position to succeed in this game. Iowa struggled to run the ball for most of the game, but sometimes they are their own worst enemy. The reverse play made no sense for this game. The backside end wasn't crashing, he wasn't the problem with the run game. If Iowa is going to try to line up and physically dominate the opponent that is fine, but they must stick to it. Iowa has only two formations that might make the opponent guess- the I and the Ace slot (3 receivers, 1 TE, and 1 TB). Every other formation you can play tendencies and not get burned, especially if Iowa motions. A couple of plays need to die- the max protect 2 man play-action out of the I. That doesn't work. It really doesn't work when you don't have a running game that teams fear, and they don't have to pack the box to stop the run. The Bubble screen to the Split is also a dumb playcall. Dlineman and LBs are already keying for the stretch and they react to quickly for lineman to get out to block on the short side of the field. Iowa's regular zone scheme was working. Sometimes Wegher or Paki didn't choose the correct hole but I think that the middle runs by design were not the answer.

The final drive was also a disaster. I don't know exactly what was going on there but it kind of looked like KOK was drawing plays up in the sand there. The crossing patterns executed by Moeaki and McNutt looked very well rehearsed, like me sitting in with Pearl Jam. I have seen that play 0 times this season. Iowa was trying to run a lot of Pick type routes- freeing receivers over the middle but it didn't look like that should have been necessary as the middle was manned by the MLB and WLB who were slow footed and just looking to keep receivers in front of them. Where is a screen to Wegher there? I know hindsight is easy, but reliving that was extremely painful.

KF, KOK and the rest of the offensive staff have a week to get ready for the Buckeyes.  The Buckeyes have much more talented personnel than the team the Hawks just faced. NU just gave OSU a scheme with which to wreak havoc on the Oline. They have a talented Redshirt Freshman getting ready to make his first start. They have the Big Ten Title on the line. Iowa is scheming to get Moeaki the ball. He has lined up in the slot several times, and also appeared as the "H" a time or two. Iowa needs to break out the game tape of the PSU gameplan. Even though the offense didn't execute there were some really solid playcalls in that game and they should be throws that JVB could build a rhythm with. Forget the home run for a quarter or two and just try to possess the ball. No more deep throws on 3rd down. Move the chains. 2 first downs and a punt is a win. Play physical and smart football. A five yard out is as good as a 5 yard run. Right now your best offensive weapons are on the perimeter of the field. Vandy is capable of keeping Iowa in this football game. Give him a plan he can succeed with.

Iowa Vs. Northwestern Matchups

2009-11-05T01:46:00.000-08:00

Iowa's season continues to look rosy, even after last week's scare. The funny thing about roses though, they come with thorns, and no team has been a bigger thorn in Iowa's side than Northwestern. NU has won 7 of the last 12 meetings and the last two at Iowa. I almost demolished my house after the 2005 fiasco and actually broke some of my wife's lawn decorations. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of that this season. Last season Iowa had a comfortable 17- 3 margin heading into the half when Andy Brodell fumbled a punt return. NU scored a TD with 0:17 left in the first half to gain momentum on their way to a 22 to 17 win. This is the infamous 1rst and goal from the 8 game where the playcalls are still intensely debated. I don't want to spark one here I would just like to point out that Iowa dominated this game for the most part statistically except for two key things -the final score and the turnover margin.

Offensively Northwestern returns just 4 starters from last season, but this late in the year that doesn't really matter. They are a pass first spread team that compares alot to Iowa State. NU uses the same "check with me" style of OC call from the sideline for audibles and they like to vary their tempo from snap to snap.  They are almost exclusively shotgun. They run a lot of empty backfield sets usually with "trips" to the wide side of the field. They occasionally run a "bunch" formation similar to the one that Indy ran. They also feature a "trips" formation to the wideside with their "superback" (TE) lining up on the line of scrimmage as a regular tight end. When they line up 4 wide and send #s 9, 89, and especially 80 in motion look for the run. They have 6 basic running plays- your standard QB read option, a speed QB option to either side (short or wide side of the field), QB Draw, QB lead, HB zone lead play, and the most effective play is a counter draw play off of their sprint rollout passing package. Their passing game consists of a lot of crossing patterns, out routes and slants. They run a lot of rubs (clearing patterns designed to free another receiver) and are very effective at it. They rarely attack deep outside of the hashes. I saw only one completion in the three games I reviewed (MSU, Indiana, and PSU) and only recall three attempts. They mostly attack the middle of the field and throw the ball less than ten yards. This is a passing attack designed to beat Iowa's defense. But it depends on accurate and timely passing. The offensive line runs both a zone scheme and some power blocking, but they are more effective with the zone scheme. They are pretty athletic and the interior lineman are excellent downfield and very good in the screen game. In pass protection they cut a lot and like to move the pocket more than any team Iowa has faced this season. They are also pretty young, but they have a lot of starts for their age.

Defensively NU runs a base 4-3. They returned 10 starters this season but have really been a mash unit. 20 different players have started a game this season including 9 different in the secondary. They play a ton of cover 3. They are very aggressive in run support and very vulnerable to play action. Wootton is very savvy and plays his contain responsibilities well. When teams run playaction to their left NU has had the SLB play contain and attack the QB- every time in all three games I watched. Northwestern runs a very aggressive defense blitzing on first and second down at least 60% of the time. They send the SLB a lot, but I have seen corners, safeties and six, and seven man blitzes from them regardless of the formation they were facing. They usually tip the blitz however. On third and long they play some form of Nickel 80% of the time. They blitz 70% of the time. When they are going to blitz they show. They run a 3-3 5 but sometimes the third linebacker (Quentin Davie #41) lines up as a defensive end and Wootton slides inside. They usually run a twist together. This is a very veteran defense with five seniors on it and they have experienced beating Iowa at least twice if not three times. They will not be intimidated by Kinnick.

Special Teams: Stefan Demos is a very good kicker. He has had one blocked (PSU) and has only missed one other kick this season in 15 attempts. He is a terrible punter and Iowa would be better off trying to block every punt because his punts are tough to field and they don't go very far anyway. Now he will probably punt one 33 yards and it will roll another 30 and all anyone will remember is I said he wasn't good. He is a kicker who is punting because they have no one else at the moment. The kick return unit is nothing special and the returners are tailbacks Stephen Simmons and Jeravin Matthews. Neither is a threat to outrun anyone on Iowa's kick cover unit and they usually don't get very good blocking. They also give up big plays on their kick off unit. Fisher from Indiana returned one for a TD and PSU almost returned two against them. MSU started the game off against them with one for 55 yards. Iowa should have some success against this unit. Brewer is the punt returner, and although he doesn't have elite speed he can break a tackle or two and he doesn't fool around- he catches the punt and looks to get downfield. He is very sure-handed.

Now for the matchups:

94 Adrian Clayborn RDE and 91 Broderick Binns LDE Vs. 75 Al Netter 6 6 290 LT SO and Neal Deiters 6 8 315 RT R.FR: Netter and Deiters have done a very good job for NU this season. They understand the scheme and what is asked of them. They aren't dominating in the run game but they do a pretty good job of trying to seal d-lineman and are very good when they get there hands on linebackers. They aren't asked to pull very often. Deiters is especially adept at running speed rushers out of the play. Netter really struggles with an inside move and was beaten repeatedly in multiple games by this technique. Clayborn has owned basically everyone he has played this season. It is tough to get sacks against the types of schemes he has been facing and he has still managed to tally 6.5 sacks and 7 hits on the QBs. Binns has also played extremely well this season holding up much better against the run than expected and developing a knack for knocking down passes at the line of scrimmage. He played very well again last week string out several runs and knocking down two more passes. He has tallied 4 sacks and leads the team with 8 pass deflections. That is an incredible number for a defensive lineman
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Kirlew and Middleton pressured Kafka for most of the day when NU faced Indiana and when Persa came in for Kafka against Penn State the entire Oline for NU seemed to lose their composure. Iowa runs more "games" than any other team in the Big Ten and NU really struggled with that in the second half against Penn State. Iowa's front four is also the most disciplined group that this team will have faced all season. These two are in for a long day.

DTs 46 Christian Ballard and 95 Karl Klug Vs. LGs 63 Keegan Grant 6 2 295 JR, 72 Brian Mulroe 6 4 275 R.FR, C Ben Burkett 6 4 280 SO, and RG Doug Bartels 6 4 285 SO: Burkett and Bartels are returning starters and have started every game of this season. Mulroe and Grant seem to be alternating series the last couple of games and Mulroe seems to make the running game a little more effective. I am pretty sure he is bigger than his listed size. These guys are all very athletic and run their zone scheme very well. They all have very good feet for O-lineman. They get downfield very well and are very effective selling screens and draws. They are not the strongest in pass protection if asked to block for longer than three or four seconds but the ball should be out by then in their scheme. When Bartels was asked to block Jerel Worthy, Jamie Kirlew, and Jared Odrick one on one he consistently lost this battle. This could lead to a big day for Karl Klug. Ballard is playing unreal right now and is obviously adjusted to his position change. He is demanding double teams and is still beating them. He is playing the run on his way to the QB and his first step is breathtaking.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Bartels and Burkett are going to have to concentrate on Ballard leaving a one on one for Klug most of the time. NU is obviously having an issue there or they wouldn't be inserting a Redshirt Freshman into the lineup this late in the season. Klug has been playing very well this season but it is easy to get overshadowed when he is surrounded by the rest of the talent of Iowa's D-line. Klug is athletic enough to play spy if Iowa chooses to and Kafka is healthy enough to merit it.

43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 20 Scott Concannon 5 10 190 So, 25 Stephen Simmons 5 8 175 JR, 19 Arby Fields 5 9 190 FR: Concannon is probably the least physically gifted of this trio but he is the one who gets yards. He runs with great pad level and finds what is there and hits the hole hard. He isn't likely to break a long gain but he won't miss an assignment either. He is just keeping the seat warm for Fields though. Fields looks like a thinner Tyrell Sutton. He just doesn't have it all figured out yet. NU really tries hard to get him out in space. They run a lot of screens for him and he plays the slot a ton and looks natural doing it. He has good hands and runs pretty good routes. He doesn't break a lot of tackles but I would guess he isn't near his listed weight. Simmons is somewhere between Concannon and Fields. He is a little more shifty than Concannon but doesn't have the burst or natural ability of Fields. He will bounce off of a tackle or two but isn't really a power back. He is also comfortable catching the ball. He had a very nice kick return versus Penn State but didn't have the speed to house it. Angerer is having an amazing season.   He is a great all around MLB and keeps impressing me every game with how complete his game is becoming. He has become more physical each week it seems and with the weakness of this line and lack of a true Fullback I think he can shut down the tailbacks by himself. Where he will be tested is in pass coverage this week as NU tries to attack the gaps between LBs with crossing routes and slant patterns and is looking for YAC. He must tackle well this week.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I am not sure how much NU will actually run the ball against Iowa. They stuck with it against PSU and had very little success. I think many of Angerer's tackles could come on QB scrambles and I hope Iowa chooses not to line him on the 2nd slot receiver when the Wildcats go empty backfield. I think when the Wildcats show run he should attack downhill and leave the backside for his teammates to clean up regardless of who is playing QB. He is more athletic than Concannon and Simmons and could force a turnover or at least pile up some Tackles for Losses and if NU is off schedule they are much less effective. 3rd and long is a death sentence for them.

49 A.J. Edds SLB, 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB, 19 Amari Spievey RCB, 28 Shaun Prater LCB, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 12 Andrew Brewer 6 3 215 SR, 85 Zeke Markshausen 5 11 185 SR, 11 Jeremy Ebert 6 0 180 SO, 5 Sidney Stewart 6 1 185 JR, 6 Charles Brown 5 11 180 SO, and SBs 9 Drake Dunsmore 6 3 230 SO, 80 Brendan Mitchell, 44 Mark Woodsum, and 89 Sean Rooks: The two most important player for the 'Cats are Brewer and Markshausen. Brewer is a playmaker and possibly a Sunday player. If he can put on some weight he has some TE potential in the NFL. If he can't, he still runs polished enough routes and uses his body so well the right team might pick him late. He reminds me of Marty Booker. He excells at getting an inside release and running slants or in patterns.  He also ran a beautiful fade route stealing the ball from Fisher- the Indiana corner. He can break tackles and do something with the ball in his hands. He isn't afraid to take a hit from linebackers over the middle. He has very good hands and great chemistry with Kafka.  Markshausen is a nice story I am sick of hearing. I will save it for you to hear over and over and over again Saturday. He isn't real athletic, just a football player. He catches anything in his radius. He understands his offense and coverage and sits in soft spots in zone coverage.  They run a lot of WR screens for him and he is pretty good after the catch. The rest of these guys are just that- guys. Ebert and Brown look like they might be good soon but they aren't running the primary routes that Brewer and Markshausen are. Dunsmore is the only real receiving threat of the "superbacks". He is not a good blocker. He is a very good receiver though and he too can run after the catch. He runs a lot of seam routes but seems to be the one guy besides Brewer that Kafka actually looks for down the field.  The rest of the Superbacks are basically blockers. They will catch a pass or two but they are outlets. Hunter is going to struggle in this game. He is a great run defender and he has improved his pass defense but this scheme isn't his forte. Edds on the other hand should shine here. He is probably faster than half of NU's wide outs. He can run with Brewer and Markshausen and will probably line up over one of them all of the time. He needs to get his hands on them often and try to disrupt their routes. Spievey also needs to press his man. If Iowa plays its regular base D he should be allowed to play a press and an inside technique and take away the slant when he is matched up on Brewer because it seems to be 33% of their offense. Prater continues to impress and he will need to play well again this week as he will be tested early and often. He must continue his very solid tackling and not get down on himself if three or four passes in a row are completed in front of him. That is the nature of both teams' scheme and he needs to understand that he isn't doing anything wrong as long as he makes the tackle.  Willie Lowe has continued to improve his play as well and he is also doing a very good job on special teams. If Iowa plays Nickel he must tackle very well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Northwestern.  I touched on this earlier but I will try to explian it here fully. This is the Nickel and Dime team that can move march the ball on Iowa's defense. It will be very frustrating to watch. When they complete 5 yard out after 5 yard out followed by a 8 yard slant, the grumbling in Kinnick will begin. This team takes what the defense gives them. They aren't going to play into Iowa's hands and try to force the ball downfield and they generally aren't sacked because the ball is out too soon. So Brewer and Markshausen will get there 8- 10 catches apiece for 75 to 80 yards. Iowa just has to prevent yards after the catch. The good thing is they don't have a running game and they don't have a reliable way to score inside the redzone. Against a defense with a pulse (read not Towson or Syracuse) the highest point total they have put up this season is 29 against Indiana. They are averaging 21.2 points a game in Big Ten play but scored only 14 vs. MSU and 13 vs. PSU.

9 Tyler Sash SS and FSs 30 Brett Greenwood/ 20 Joe Conklin Vs. QBs 13 Mike Kafka 6'3 215 SR/ 7 Dan Persa 6 1 200 SO: Kafka is very, very good. But he is hurt and even if he plays he will be severly limited. For basically a first year starter he has total command of this offense. He rarely throws the ball into coverage, he is deadly accurate inside of 20 yards- hitting his receiver in stride, and he gets the ball out very quickly. Before his injury I would have said he was the most mobile QB in the Big Ten and that includes Juice and Pryor. He isn't extremely fast but he moves well and finds a passing lane if his first option isn't open, when he decides to run he almost always makes the first defender miss and he is very physical. I don't think he will be doing too much running if he tries to play Saturday. He doesn't have elite arm strength and doesn't test it often. He rarely throws the ball outside the hashes beyond 20 yards and doesn't throw a pretty ball when pressured.  Persa is more of a running QB at this point of his career. He is very fast. He probably keeps the ball more often than he should on the read option, and he doesn't stay with the pass as long as Kafka does, taking off with it after one or two reads. He also doesn't seem to have Kafka's shake. He also isn't nearly as accurate or decisive and could be turnover prone in the passing game. Against PSU I saw Persa throw only one ball farther than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Sash is possibly Iowa's most instinctive player. He flies to the ball faster than any safety since Sanders and he is looking to punish when he gets there. He is also a turnover machine. His TD return helped restore life to Kinnick last weekend and certainly sparked the comeback.  He will certainly be All Big Ten this season. Conklin has been pretty steady stepping in for Greenwood, but he isn't quite as confident in his reads and is playing a little tentative. This will be a tough test for him if Greenwood can't go. By now I have learned that Iowa's Monday Depth Chart means nothing though.
Spud's Spin:  Kafka plays hurt: Push; Persa starts: Edge Iowa. Kafka is smart enough not to force the ball against Iowa's defense and if he does at least he will do it on the short side of the field, i.e. away from Sash. Persa doesn't have the same poise or experience and he hasn't faced a secondary this talented or disciplined ever.

79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 99 Corey Wootton 6 7 265 LDE SR and 94 Vince Brown 6 5 270 RDE SR: Wootton seems fully recovered from his ACL tear he suffered in last season's Alamo Bowl. He has a very good first step and a good bull rush. He speed isn't all the way back but he made a very nice play on a zone blitz where he covered TB McCray for the Hoosiers with very little difficulty displaying very good athleticism. He plays the run very well and is very smart. Brown seems a little out of position. He is not explosive and doesn't seem to have a lot of pass rush ability. He isn't asked to contain often but shows good discipline when it is his role. He can be pushed around in the run game. He plays very high. Bulaga and Calloway are coming off of their best games imo. I think all of the sacks that were taken by Stanzi were on Stanzi and not he Oline's fault. I also think that Iowa pushed around very good DEs who are both probably NFL players.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. If Iowa chooses to run to the left side I think they will find a lot of success. Bulaga seems to have his feet back under him and Brown did nothing in three games worth of watching to make me take note of him. Brown is not much of a pass rush threat. Calloway has been solid all year and he has faced tougher competition this season. One potential match up to watch for is on third and long- #41 Quentin Davie lines up as the LDE and he has a lot of quickness. Against Wisconsin Calloway struggled when matched up one on one with a linebacker in a similar alignment.

77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs.DTs 98 Corbin Bryant 6 4 275 and 79 Adam Hahn 6 4 295: Bryant and Hahn are very solid in the run game. Bryant is pretty much a two down type of player. He isn't on the field on third and long. He is very strong and anchors against the run very well. He likes to jump the snap and he has a decent first step. Hahn really uses his hands well and is the more likely of the two to end up in the backfield. He also likes to guess the snap count. He stays on the field in passing situations. He really plays low and can get a good push. He also pursues down the line well. Reiff, Eubanks and Vandy are coming off of their best game as a unit by far. I thought Eubanks was great on running plays and was starting to really flash his athleticism. He still looks to be caught blocking no one too often in pass protection and can't afford to do that this week as NU rarely rushes 4. Vandy had some struggles but was dominating people in the fourth quarter. He and Reiff have some tough assignments this week. This will be on par with the talent they faced against MSU.
Spud's Spin: Edge Northwestern.  I just don't know if Reiff has the physical strength to block Hahn consistently enough yet. And I am not sure if this unit has figured out blitz pickup yet. They better 'cause it is coming this week. From every angle you can imagine. If I am wrong about this you can rest easy Saturday.

81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 32 David Arnold 6 1 220 SLB SO and 17 FS Brad Phillips 6 4 210 SR: Arnold is listed as the starter but #35 Ben Johnson has played some at this position also.  They are basically the same player. Converted safeties playing linebackers. They are pretty fast and comfortable in space. They get good depth on their zones and line up over the slot when teams use 3 wide receivers. They take bad angles and overpursue in the run game and while blitzing. They are undersized and are decimated if they are met by lineman in the second level.  Phillips is a very good player. He is pretty fast and diagnoses plays quickly.  He doesn't take a lot of false steps and doesn't seem to get caught up in traffic. He is a sure tackler. He is usually the safety inthe box and plays the nickel corner. He is comfortable playing a slot receiver in man coverage.  He is the quarterback of the defense. Moeaki had a relatively quiet game but he was kept in to block on a lot of passing plays and was double covered by Indiana and used as a decoy on several other plays.  He did and excellent job blocking.
Spud's Spin:   Edge Iowa. Northwestern plays a lot of zone looks so it will be rare for anyone to be matched up one on one with Tony, but if they are and it is a linebacker Iowa needs to have an Audible put in for this situation. If it is Davie or Arnold or Johnson they can't cover him and if he is bracketed that means single coverage from some very vulnerable corners on our talented WRs. Moeaki is bigger than all of their linebackers and probably more athletic than Wootton also. I don't think their is anyone on their defense he couldn't block besides the two DTs.

82 Allen Reisner TE/H and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 41 Quention Davie 6 4 225 WLB JR: Davie is a leader for this team. He is a good downhill linebacker who can work through traffic and make tackles. He is also an effective blitzer. He is very stiff in coverage and doesn't get good depth. He has good straight- line speed but his lateral quickness and make up speed are average.  Reisner and Morse will likely be blocking him or the weakside De in zone running plays and they should have a strength and possibly an athletic advantage.  Both of these guys are capable receivers but they have been overlooked since early in the season.
Spud's Spin: Push. I would like to give the edge to Iowa but that would require these guys being involved in the passing game. They haven't been for at least three weeks. They can block Davie, but he will win his fair share in the runing game, that is what he is good at and he is a very good instinctual player. Stanzi needs to look for his outlet a few times in this game if he has time on playaction.

WRs 15 DJK, 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. CBs 24 Sherrick McManis 6 1 190 SR, 26 Jordan Mabin 5 11 180 SO, 47 Ricky Wiena 5 11 180 SO, and Demetrius Dugar 5 11 165 R.FR: McManis has been banged up and if he can't go Ricky Wiena is someone the Hawks should look to exploit. PSU took advantage of him most of the game. He is a gamer and is trying hard out their but he just doesn't have the ability to cover D1 wide outs right now. He really struggles with his tackling and gives such a cushion that he puts himself in poor position to make a tackle after giving up a catch. Mabin on the other side isn't real aggressive but he has some decent athleticism but he doesn't seem to be really interested in supporting the run. He can be shielded from the ball by bigger receivers. Dugar is not a physical player. He did show some nice closing speed. DJK had another microcosm type of game. He ran terrific routes and then kind of left his QB hanging with some attitude. He then showed the kind of athleticism and instincts that make you wonder if he isn't a Sunday player on his 66 yard score. Stross had a relatively quiet game but ran some really sharp routes including a very nice comeback for a catch. I also thought he blocked very well. McNutt showed off some speed I wasn't 100% sure he possessed. He also had a couple of nice broken tackles on the P/A read option plays. Davis had one memorable play that wasn't even his fault. I also saw him run some decent routes and thought he might already get off of press coverage the best out of all of Iowa's receivers.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Even with McManis in this goes to Iowa. This unit is really building some momentum late in the year and it started with their run blocking imo. With them showing Ricky what they can do with the ball on target in film sessions this week I would look for less long throws in the gameplan this week and for more outs and slants. One broken tackle or coverage and these guys have proven now that they can make you pay.

3 Brandon Wegher and 25 Paki O'Meara Vs. 57 Nate Williams 6 2 225: Williams doesn't make as many plays as you would expect the MLB playing for Pat Fitzgerald to make. He doesn't shed blockers very well and he over pursues a lot on running plays. He is decimated by O-lineman. He is also very vulnerable to playaction and doesn't get great depth on his zones. He does have pretty good speed for a LB but it is pretty much straight ahead. His lateral speed leaves something to be desired. He is a sure tackler. He reminds me of Jesse Smith from ISU except he doesn't have Smith's instincts. He is a try hard guy. Wegher had a great day against Indiana and was possibly underutlized early in the game. Iowa didn't really use him at all in the passing game which was a shame because Indiana didn't have anyone who could cover him. Neither do the Wildcats. I don't think Iowa needs to be coy about anything. The rest of their opponents have pleny of gamefilm of Iowa. I think they probably know that Iowa has used Wegher in the slot before. It is okay to keep doing it. I thought Paki did an alright job. He had a very nice 3rd and 14 conversion and held on to the ball when giving Wegher a blow. That is more than most were expecting and I think he will get more opportunities this weekend.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. NU is vulnerable to the big play and Iowa fans have been waiting all season for Wegher to bust a long one. I have been predicting him to get one every week so I might as well continue so I will be right when it happens. Screen pass to Wegher for a 60 yard plus TD. If Iowa can block the DTs and get a big body on either Williams or Davie this will be a long day for the Wildcats. If Iowa can establish the run early and they don't have to rely on Stanzi then you can put away your balm of choice.

12 Ricky Stanzi QB Vs. 4 Brendan Smith 6 1 210 SS SR: Smith is a very solid player. He is a sure tackler and he diagnoses plays well. He rarely takes a false step and has pretty decent make up speed. He is also injury prone. He has to be salivating after watching tape of the Indiana game last week. His backup #10 Brian Peters is a pretty decent player and comes in on Nickel situations.   I have confidence in Stanzi. I think he is going to improve and I think last week was a little flukish. But he makes some poor decisions and he is NU's best chance to stay in this game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I was so close to giving this to the 'Cats. But I klooking at Stanzi's past history and he just rarely has two bad games in a row. I think that alot of time was spent this week in Fort Kinnick discussing some of his and the Offensive Coaching Staffs' Flaws. At least I hope so. Smith basically plays center field for the 'Cats. As long as he doesn't catch any fly balls it will be a good day.

some terrible predictions:
1. Brett Morse will rush for 50 yards.
2. Marvin McNutt will complete a pass to Trey Stross for 12 yards on a reverse pass. You will be wondering," Why an out pattern on a Reverse Pass?"
3. In an effort to garner Mass Media approval and remind them of his Belicheckian heritage A.J. Edds will catch a TD Pass a la MikeVrabel formerly of the Pats and currently of the Chefs (no misprint)
4. Iowa will not return a punt all day.
5. Iowa will score on their opening drive and lead the entire game.

Spud's Spin: If I were Pat Fitzgerald I would line up 8 in the box and not vary my defensive formation. I would instruct my players to never tip my blitz even if it meant a guy is a hair late. I would blitz on every down the first three drives but never the same blitz twice. What I mean by that is one time a safety with zone coverage behind it. The next time the Sam with man and two deep safeties. The next time bring seven, etc. The important thing is that you show the same front every time and never tip where it is coming from. Iowa's offensive line and Stanzi have been poor at recognizing the blitz. When they have picked it up they have beaten it for big plays but those have been few and far between this season. The fourth drive I would rush four and only play coverage behind it with the same formation. After this I would play my regular defense and see how Iowa adjusts. If they begin to have success I would go back to my first strategy (assuming it was successful). And the two players I make sure I cover are Moeaki and Wegher because I would suspect that is the adjustment Iowa would make.
If Kafka is healthy this is going to be a scary game for Iowa because he was really begining to play his best football of the year. If he is healthy enough to play it will still be difficult, it will be like playing Purdue with Curtis Painter. He almost rallied them back from a significant deficit last season in Kinnick and they ran similar offenses. Kafka has two receivers he has incredible chemistry with. If Persa plays I will not be too worried. This defense is to good to surrender more than 17 points since they won't allow 20 points in back to back games. NU is just to beat up to put up a fight for more than a half.
Final Score: Iowa 45 Northwestern 17

Examing Iowa's Passing Game

2009-11-02T23:08:00.000-08:00

Last week I asked the coaching staff to put more on Ricky and they delivered. This week I am going to examine the playcalling, Ricky's decision making, and the scheme in general. I am going to throw a lot of numbers at you and if that bores you I am sorry. I understand that stats don't tell the whole story but they do add flavor to the stew. I am going to try to explain what Iowa was doing and why I think it was the right thing most of the time. And I am going to try to explain why I think they should continue to rely on Stanzi to win or lose them ballgames. Thursday, as if that article couldn't be long enough, I will play Pat Fitzgerald and tell you how to defeat the Hawk's.

Entering the 4th Quarter KOK had called 17 runs to 29 passes. That doesn't include scrambles and sacks as runs, nor the kneel down at the end of the first half- so my statistics don't jibe with the game stats as college counts sack yardage as part of the run yards instead of the pass. Iowa called only 3 running plays in the 3rd Quarter and Stanzi audibled into a fourth one. Iowa ran 13 passes to 4 running plays into at least a steady 20 mph wind. And I think it was the right thing to do. Indiana was missing their best CB in Ray Fisher, and their best athlete and best cover Safety in Nick Polk for most of the game. Donnell Jones was playing was also playing hurt so this was a secondary just begging to be exposed. Indiana played 8 in the box almost the entire game. Schematically Iowa has a very nice passing package. The route combinations are very clever and usually someone is running free. When Iowa picked up the Blitz they really made Indiana pay, as in 92 yards worth and 6 points. Usually Indiana won with the blitz. Iowa's other long TD to DJK on the other hand was all on play design and execution. Iowa ran a "Scissors" route where the wide side corner followed McNutt on his post route instead of staying in his area and Stanzi found DJK all alone crossing underneath him. That should have been Fisher playing there and is probably not there if his he is in. Iowa's goal is usually to maintain balance and they were close by the end of the game but that is because they had the lead and ran 14 straight running plays to even things up. Also the QB scrambles and Sacks make things look more even than they really are. Make no mistake. Iowa is a passing team and they have been all year. My only issue with the playcalling would have been with the long patterns to the opposite hash with the wind howling Iowa's face. With Stanzi struggling the way he was the 4th pick of the third quarter was just a matter of time. Either don't call that play or get in his ear and tell him not to throw the long ball. DJK was open there, but either Ricky didn't have the arm to get it there in that wind or was aiming the ball so bad at that point, they should have stuck to the medium range game. But the picks were not the Coaching Staffs' fault entirely and I thought for the most part their gameplan was very well thought out.

This team can only go as far as Stanzi can take them. He looked to be taking them right down the tubes in the 3rd quarter on Saturday. It really says something about this guy for him to shake off a perfomance like that and come out and hit his next three throws in the money quarter to seal the game. But I think he would like to move on. Here is hoping he doesn't. He could learn a ton from this game. Iowa came out passing in this game. They threw on first down 8 of the 13 times in the first half. He was 4-6 for 91 yards and 2 sacks. 3 of those completions and 77 of those yards came on one drive- the TD scored by Wegher. Iowa needs Stanzi to be more consistent and is going to need more from him the rest of this season than one good drive a half or to be hot and cold. He can't be so streaky. Tubahawk has a very interesting blog that hits on a thread that was bumping around Hawkeyenation earlier this week. While I think KOK has done a much better job this season gameplanning and calling plays(and getting plays in on time) I can't help but notice this has all coincided with the arrival of Coach Campbell. Iowa's receiver play has drastically improved since his arrival. Iowa has had a serious problem with its QB play leveling out and Stanzi is making the same fundamental mistakes he made in week 1. KOK is also the QBs coach and I am not sure if he is best suited for that role. Stanzi threw to his first read 15 of his first 24 drop backs. He also took three sacks in those drop backs that were on him. Those are drive killers that could be eliminated by coaching. I don't have a huge problem with him throwing to his "pre-snap read"- in fact that can be a good thing. It can mean that he has a handle on what the defense is trying to do and he understands how to defeat it. The problem I have is that he stares down his first read and gives the other defenders a chance to react to where he is going with the ball and jump routes. It also prevents his receivers from making plays when they have everyone flowing to them. Stanzi began looking off coverage after his 4th pick but on his last pick, the ball was so underthrown that DJK had no chance at it. That wind was really nasty. My face is still wind burnt. I can live with all 5 of those interceptions as I think that they were physical mistakes. He didn't throw the ball into terrible coverage, I think a case can be made that the wind affected four of them and the umpire the fifth. I am sure he would like to have them all back and he thinks could make better throws but my point is that he was throwing to receivers who had chances to make plays. The worst decision of the 5 was the throw to Keenan Davis. That was likely not going to get enough yards for the first down and he had enough time to look for another receiver. But that was likely the best throw of the 5 picks. The throw to Moeaki is the same one he squeezed in against MSU the week before.. but it is another case of him staring down a receiver. If he doesn't stare down McNutt the Indy corner is running with DJK instead of sitting on the out route. And I am certain the wind prevented two TDs on the DJK picks. The easiest way for Stanzi to solve this is for him to look off his coverage. He needs help with this from his coaching staff. I am not sure he is getting it. The important thing is with the game on the line he found McNutt with single coverage trailing him- TD; DJK all alone blown coverage- TD, Moeaki on the waggle 19 yards and at least a field goal. Iowa doesn't call a pass the rest of the game. Before the first pick I had him dropping back for 108 passes between them(including scrambles and sacks). His decision making is improving and he finds single coverage. He just needs some tweaking.

Finally it was nice to go to a game and see what the receivers are doing. You don't really get to see them run their routes on TV. Iowa's scheme is well thought out. You would think that teams would be on to the playaction waggle by now but it is good for 4 or 5 times a game and can be called out of 5 or 6 of Iowa's formations. Iowa left some bullets in their gun against Indiana this week too. They ran the 5 wide formation zero times this week, and no screens to Wegher. They did break out the Jailbreak screen but it was just like old times and almost got us a delay of game and eventually got us an illegal shift and a block in the back. The one complaint I have about Saturday's gameplan is keeping Moeaki in on playaction to block. Indiana was double teaming him all day. That left Mayberry crashing the line unaccounted for early when he realized T.M. wasn't going out and Iowa didn't adjust well early. It also left the Free Safety Austin Thomas free to float or double the receiver on Tony's side. If that was Ricky's read that usually led to a scramble situation in the first half. Tony is a very good blocker, and Indy's ends were very good but it would seem to make more sense to have him play the "H" and keep Reisner in to block and live with the double team and try to make teams pay with single coverage with our outside receivers. I was very impressed with all of the receivers route running. Iowa runs a lot of simple crossing routes but DJK and Stross in particular ran some exellent double moves and the reason Stanzi threw the two long picks is because DJK had the coverage beaten so badly. If the wind wasn't a factor Indiana probably wouldn't have been either. Iowa would have scored on their third drive and for sure would have been leading by the end of the third quarter. Iowa has three really intriguing options returning next season in DJK, McNutt and Davis. The future looks bright for this season and the next.

Iowa has three games left and the next two will be very tough. Northwestern is always difficult and Ohio State has a lot of talent at D-line and in their secondary. Iowa really needs to look at last Saturday and improve because to win the next two games they are going to have to be a passing team. They have the talent to become an explosive offense. I think that the Fourth Quarter could be the Iowa offense that more closely resembles the rest of the season than anything you have seen from Iowa this year.

Iowa Vs. Indiana Matchups

2009-10-28T22:43:00.000-07:00

Indiana comes into this game 4 and 4. They are coming off of a crushing loss to Northwestern blowing a 28 to 3 lead with 7:32 left to go in the 2nd quarter and have lost four of their last five. The only Big Ten win they possess is over Illinois (27- 14 in Bloomington) who is melting down this season. They were in the game versus Michigan. The only game I remembered to dvr was Northwestern. I have seen bits and pieces of the Michigan, Western Michigan, and Ohio State games.

Offensively Indiana runs a spread based scheme using a "Pistol" Shotgun set. The QB sets up four yards behind the center and the TB is directly behind him. This allows for more traditional running schemes and "downhill" style running plays and more convincing playaction out of shotgun snaps. They use two Tight Ends 30 to 40% of the time. They also use a lot of 3 wide receiver and 4 wide receiver sets regardless of the down. They really like the "Trips" formation to the wide side of the field. This season the Hoosiers most explosive plays have come from the running game with TB Darius Willis having the most success. Demetrius McCray also has a 56 yard TD run. In short yardage situations the Hoosiers bring in a hybrid of the "Wildcat" consisting of two extra lineman, 2 TE, and a WR and it is quarterbacked by #5 WR Mitch Evans. Evans can throw but usually they are running a form of the read option out of this formation. They have a couple of variations of this formation but the results generally consist of little to no gain. The passing game is based on short to mid range throws and is looking to get the receiver open with the ability to get yards after the catch. They like to flood one side of the field and give the QB an easy read with 3 options within his vision. The three top receivers account for 66% of the teams receptions. The runningbacks have not been involved in the passing game this season. They don't attack down the field often.

Defensively the Hoosiers run a base 4-3. Against Northwestern who ran 4- 5 wide sets all of the time they moved their FS Nick Polk to WLB and played back up Collin Taylor at FS. They usually rush 4 and play zone coverages. They almost always had their two safties playing deep coverage but I haven't seen them play a power running scheme. Indiana has two very good D-ends and they must be accounted for. Kirlew especially is very good and they move him inside on obvious passing downs. Indiana doesn't have a clear cut starter opposite of Ray Fisher at Corner and this could be a potential spot for Iowa to attack. Starting WLB Will Patterson is also injured but may try to play. Mayberry and Replogle are decent linebackers but make most of their plays beyond the line of scrimmage.

Now for the Matchups:

79 Bryan Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 57 Jammie Kirlew 6'3 263 SR RE, 92 Greg Middleton 6'3 285 LE SR, 51 Terrance Thomas 6'1 263 JR LE: Kirlew is the star of this group. He is relentless and athletic. He lines up most of the time at right end but he and Middleton will swap on occasion. Against Northwestern on Third and Longs Kirlew moved inside and Terrance Thomas played left end although he is not listed on this weeks depth chart. Kirlew uses his arms well on the pass rush and has a variety of moves. He is also stout against the run although he doesn't possess the elite quickness of either Graham or Scholfield who haven given Iowa fits. Middleton has some impressive physical skills but he takes plays off. He looks disinterested if the play isn't a pass or a run to his side. He doesn't pursue if the play is away from him. He if very strong and can set the edge in the run game. He can be run out of the play on the pass rush. Thomas was a non factor when he was in the game. Bulaga has not had the year that many have expected him to, but he has had a lot to overcome with injuries in camp and an in- season illness. He played very well last week in both phases and may be getting his conditioning and timing back. Calloway has been rock- solid most of the season and continued his strong play last week. He draws the easier of the two assignments in Middleton but neither is in for an easy day.
For those of you unfamiliar with these articles I post as spudhawk and Spud's Spin: is my projection of what will happen in the game.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Bulaga and Calloway are just rounding into form and have faced tougher competition in the last three weeks. Kirlew is a beast and Middleton is physically talented but I think the fight may be out of Indiana after last weeks debacle. They are very good pass rushers but I have a feeling Iowa is going to want to pound the ball to see if they can. Look for more short side zone running plays.

77 Riley Reiff LG, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, and 63 Julian Vandervelde RG Vs.DTS 98 Adam Replogle 6'3 265 FR, 97 Larry Black Jr. 6'2 312 R.FR, 69 Mick Mentzer 6'4 304 R.FR, and 75 Nicholas Sliger 6'3 295 R.FR: These guys are all very young and with the exception of Adam Replogle, the younger brother of linebacker Tyler, very big. They are also very inexperienced and can be pushed around despite their size. They don't seem to rush the passer at all. Replogle and Black are listed as the starters but they all rotate in an equal number of snaps it seems. It doesn't seem to be situational. I think that Eubanks is coming off of his best two games as a Hawkeye. I have been tough on him so far this season but he has really stepped it up in the last two games. Reiff and Vandervelde have struggled in the run game at times this season but have held up pretty well in pass protection.  Both will be outweighed by everyone, except Replogle, significantly in this game but could have the strength edge due to time with Coach Doyle.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. This could be the weekend that Iowa's run game get's fat and happy. Even missing Robinson and Richardson, Iowa's interior should be able to win at the line of scrimmage in both phases- run and pass. Eubanks needs to be aware of Mayberry and Tyler Replogle blitzing but they almost always show when they are coming.

81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 46 Tyler Replogle 6'2 231 JR SLB: Replogle is a physical football player and he has decent range. He gets decent depth in his zones and is rarely asked to cover one on one. He has trouble shedding blocks though and Moeaki has twenty lbs. and 3 inches of height on him. Indiana should take a page out of MSU's playbook and not line him up right over T.M. That freed up Gordon to flow to the ball and forced Moeaki to go out and seek him, not fire out of his stance and drive him off the snap. This is Replogle's first season as a full time starter but he has had some impressive games including a 19 tackle perfomance last season against Purdue.
Spud's Spin:  Huge Edge Iowa. Moeaki has a huge edge in physical ability and experience. He should win in both phases blocking and if they are matched in the pass game. If they are matched one on one in pass coverage with no safety help Stanzi must find him. I think it would be more likely that it would be Polk or Thomas but I still like Moeaki in any match up versus this defense in the pass game.

36 Brett Morse FB and 82 Allen Reisner TE Vs. WLBs Will Patterson 6'1 236 SR and Justin Carrington 6'0 225 SR: Will Patterson is battling a hand or arm injury. In the Tuesday press conference Coach Lynch was non-commital about playing Patterson. He is a three year starter and a difference maker. Carrington is listed as the starter on the depth chart and brings a lot of speed to the position having moved there from tailback. I never saw him in the game versus Northwestern. Carrington has some experience and is in his third year playing the position but had only one career start entering the season.
Spud's Spin: Push if Patterson plays and edge Iowa if Carrington is the starter. Both Reisner and Morse have been flying under the radar for the Hawks this season but are run blocking at a very high level. But Patterson is very good in pass coverage and diagnoses very well. Carrington is athletic but I don't think he has the experience to win the matchup against these two in the run game and could be vulnerable to playaction passes.

WRs 15 DJK 86 Trey Stross Marvin McNutt, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 7 Ray Fisher 5'9 185 SR, 23 Adrian Burks 6'0 175 JR, 22 Andre LaGrone 6'0 185 SO, 6 Richard Council 6'1 201 JR, and 10 Donnel Jones 5'10 210 SO: This is the weak point of the Hoosiers. Fisher has successfully tranisitioned from receiver to corner and is a suprisingly sound tackler. He is very good in both man and zone coverage. His biggest problem is his size. Jones was the starter before suffering an injury and is unlikely to go. Council started versus Northwestern and was repeatedly victimized by Andrew Brewer on third downs. He gave a healthy cushion when Indiana elected to Blitz and gave up completion after completion. Burks was put on the #1 line this week on the depth chart but Lynch said that there would be competition this week in practice and didn't rule out Council regaining his starting role. DJK, Stross, and McNutt each had huge catches in the game winning drive in the MSU game and should be feeling confident about this game. Something else that I would like to point out is although Iowa hasn't broken a long run it isn't this units' fault. These guys have been blocking very, very well. Colin Sandeman, also, should be singled out and even though he can't go, he has done and outstanding job of run blocking all season. He is usually the Flanker when Iowa runs the Two Tight I formation and he has executed all season.
Spud's Spin: Huge Edge Iowa. Iowa should win in both phases. If they get single covered a double move could equal six. Iowa should attack downfield if either of the safeties appear in the box. If they get a big cushion a broken tackle on a short pass could still be a big play. I forsee a big day for DJK.

TBs 3 Brandon Wegher and 25 Paki O'Meara Vs. 43 Matt Mayberry 6'2 244 SR: Mayberry is a very solid run defender and has good size. He takes on and sheds lineman well. He diagnoses the run and fills a hole very well and can make a tackle with someone on his hip. He struggles in pass coverage and doesn't have good makeup speed. He is vulnerable to playaction and struggles getting good depth in pass coverage. He is not a natural pass rusher- thinking his way to the QB. He is a physical tackler. Wegher will get his chance to be the man this week as Robinson is likely done until the Bowl game. I thought he had his best game of the season last week, running more patient and hitting the hole with an incredible burst. His screen pass was a thing of beauty. I would love to see more of the 5 wide formation this week versus this team. He is a matchup nightmare for this defense. Nick Polk is the only defender who has a prayer of defending him. Paki gets his chance to get back into the mix. He has done a nice job on special teams and will probably get 8 to 10 carries in this game. I think he will do okay, but he is the only Hawk tailback to lose a fumble this season. He better not do that this week or we could actually see Rogers or Brown take off their redshirts.
Spud's Spin: Edge Indiana. As good as I think Wegher is I haven't seen him carry the mail. Mayberry is a tough and smart football player who is going to hit Wegher repeatedly. If Wegher goes down that leaves Iowa with a Walk-on who hasn't carried the ball since week one and two true freshman who haven't played a down all season. My guess would be a lot of Brett Morse and two tight ends. Lets hope Wegher stays healthy.

12 Ricky Stanzi QB VS. 8 Nick Polk 6'0 225 FS and 20 Austin Thomas 6'2 221 SS: Polk is a very good athlete and will probably play on Sundays. Thomas is a very good college football player and a thorn in Iowa's side. They are both smart and versatile and can play the other's responsibilities. Thomas isn't extremely fast but makes up for it by diagnosing plays and reading the qb very well. He is a hitter. He causes turnovers. Polk is very fast and also packs a punch. He also caught a pass last week that might have been the longest pass play for the Hoosiers this season. Stanzi needs to be aware of these guys on the field and where they line up and what it means. He can't let them bait him into bad audibles or into throwing into double coverage. This will probably be the best safety tandem he will face all season. He must look these guys off before throwing deep.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. I think that Stanzi is playing his best football right now and coming off of his best three game stretch of his career. Something he doesn't get enough credit for is his audibilizing and he has done a very good job of that this season. Even though his numbers weren't pretty against MSU his reads were usually the correct one and I can live with physical mistakes or great plays by the other team. He attacked the weak points of the MSU defense all game and they rose to the occasion. I am generally hard on KOK but so far this season he has done a nice job of gameplanning and getting plays in on time- giving Stanzi time to look over the defense and get out of bad plays, something that hasn't always been the case. I think Iowa is going to emphasize the running game against Indiana but that could lead to some big plays for Ricky in the playaction game. I think that it will.

94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 76 Roger Saffold 6'5 306 LT SR and 73 James  Brewer 6'8 338 RT JR: Saffold is entering is 3rd year as a starter and is a pretty solid pass blocker. He did a pretty good job on NW's Corey Wooten but he had tight end help some of the time. He generated a pretty decent push in the first half in the run game but didn't do much that was noticable in the second half in the run game. Brewer is huge. He is a very good run blocker if he gets his hands on his man. He has a tendency to overextend and get off balance. He has decent feet but can be beaten around the edge. Most of Indiana's big runs this season have come on his side. Clayborn has owned just about everyone he has faced this season. He is Iowa's most dominant DE since Matt Roth. Binns may be Iowa's smartest and fundamentally sound DE ever. I have never seen a d-lineman knock down so many passes or be in the passing lane. I also love where they are playing him on field goals and extrapoints.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. This is a no doubter. If Northwestern was generating pressure with a 4 man rush than Indiana is in trouble here. Clayborn and Binns are going to be in the backfield more often than Darius Willis.

DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs 70 Justin Pagan 6'5 311 LG SO, 60 Will Matte 6'2 284 C R.FR, 59 Mike Reiter 6'2 300 RG SR: This is another unit that lacks a ton of experience. They have been playing pretty well and Pagan looks like he could be a very solid player. Reiter and Pagan do a lot of pulling on running plays and are athletic enough to get out and reach linebackers. When they down block they do a decent job of sealing and then look to get downfield and hit someone on the next level. Matte is pretty quick and a decent run blocker. They are all adequate for what they are asked to do in pass protection which is protect for about 3 seconds. If Chappell holds onto the ball any longer he is usually in trouble. They do a poor job of selling playaction pass. Ballard is coming off of his best game at his new position. On almost every play on my game chart I have something positive written down about him. Klug also played his usual quietly good game. I thought I would see more of Daniels but I don't have him written in on my notes other than goalline but I could have missed a rotation.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa:   Edge Iowa. Ballard's strength and explosiveness will be too much for Pagan and Matte to handle. Klug and Ballard could pile up tackles for losses shooting the gap when they pull their guards on running plays and I don't think they can consistently pass protect against these two.

42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. TEs 41 Max Dedmond 6'5 233 SO and 87 Troy Wagner 6'5 271: Dedmond and Wagner might as well be extra lineman. Dedmond has 13 catches in 8 games and I saw Wagner go out for one pass the entire game. Wagner is big enough to play tackle though and is a very good run blocker. He also pass protects very well and makes for an effective double-team. I would guess Clayborn should be ready to see him often. Hunter was a beast versus MSU. My favorite part of watching the recording was watching him slam into the fullback. When he keys run he attacks the line of scrimmage and destroys whoever is in his way. He also has improved on his pass coverage so much that I don't even sweat when we decide to not play Nickel anymore. I just wish he had held on to that interception because that was 6 points and would have changed the complexion of that entire game.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. Hunter is playing his best football and has the athleticism to make up for a false step in his aggressiveness to play the run. He doesn't make a lot of bad reads he just wants to hit somebody- Hard. I am not sure that Dedmond can block him and that Chappell will be looking for his tight end enough to exploit any potential weakness in Iowa's zone. And if he does it is likely a 4 yard gain.

49 A.J. Edds SLB, 19 Amari Spievey RCB, 28 Shaun Prater LCB, and 10 Willie Lowe NCB Vs. WRs 88 Damario Belcher 6'5 209 SO, 2 Tandon Doss 6'3 197 SO, 1 Terrance Turner 6'3 207 JR , 5 Mitch Evans 6'3 197 JR, 15 Matt Ernest 6'2 187 SO: Edds is going to be lined up over a slot receiver pretty much the entire day. I didn't see a balanced formation from Indiana the entire day against Northwestern. Belcher is the Split or outside receiver. Doss and Turner usually play the slots. Belcher reminds me of a slower less explosive James Hardy. He is really tall and can break tackles. Doss and Turner are very quick and have good size. They aren't polished route runners yet and they rely upon their athleticism to get open. They are also looking to catch and run. These three are the guys who are on the field most of the time. Evans comes in when they go 4 wide. Ernest is supposed to be the fastest guy on the team but I never noticed him or saw a ball thrown his way. After struggling some early in the season Iowa has become a very good tackling team. It will be important for that to continue Saturday as Indiana is going to try to create one on one match ups for these guys to exploit. Edds and Spievey are playing at an All Big Ten level. Prater is playing very, very well especially for a true sophmore in his first year starting. Willie Lowe has also come on late in the year and is steadily progressing.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa: Indiana should hope they are constantly on the left hash 'cause they don't want to throw Spievey's way. If they end up on the right has they should just run one of their sweeps to the left and not worry about how many yards they get. Spievey and Sash on the same side = turnover for them.

43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. TBs 28 Darius Willis 6'0 218 R.FR, 27 Bryan Payton 5'9 207 SR, and 22 Demetrius McCray 5'11 200 SR: Willis has become the man. Payton and McCray occasionally spot him but Willis is the future and the now of Indiana football. He has good size, runs with power and has very good speed. If he gets a crease he is gone. He has two long TD runs including an 85 yard burst versus Michigan. They have some pretty fast guys of their own up in Ann Arbor. He is also injury prone and still inexperienced and will be facing the most physical defense he has ever seen. Payton and McCray are basically the same player. They are tough shifty runners who try to make you miss and have trouble breaking tackles. Angerer had a very good game against MSU. He played his usual good pass coverage but he is playing the run much better than I expected him to this season. He is playing much more physical than I expected and he is shedding O'lineman and making plays much better this season. He is rarely taken out of a play.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. Indiana tends to throw more than pass but I think Angerer will get his share of the tackles in both phases of the game. He reads his keys as well as any linebacker in recent memory and may have the most speed of anyone to play his position ever. After the season he is having he (and the quotes) he will go down as one of the all- time great Hawkeyes.

9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs. 4 Ben Chappell 6'3 235 QB JR: Chappell is a traditional drop back passer. This is sort of the reason Indiana installed the "Pistol" formation. He is not mobile. He is not Kellen Lewis. He will scramble as a last resort but is more likely to throw the ball away when pressured. He does a nice job of reading the field and going through his progressions. He can look off coverage if he has time. He has a very strong arm and can squeeze the ball into tight spots and can throw the ball to the outside from the opposite hash. However he needs a clean pocket to work, he is not accurate if he is forced of his "spot." He needs his footwork to be clean and throws an ugly ball off of his back foot. He is not usually pressured into bad decisions. Sash and Greenwood have been allowed to do more this season than last. Both have blitzed some (Greenwood more than Sash) and both have played in the box. Chappell hasn't played a ton of college football and these two could really mess with his head if they line up somewhere beside 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. They really need to tackle well.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa. If Greenwood is completely healthy that would be a bonus but Sash is enough by himself. Chappell is a decent player but so far he hasn't beaten a decent team and the Hoosiers' were pounded by the two toughest defenses they faced- Ohio State and Virginia. If early in the game Chappell overthrows one ball over the middle Kinnick goes crazy. If he misreads one coverage when Sash or Greenwood are dropping late and throws a pick his team won't bounce back. He has to play a perfect game against a defense that bets you can't. Michigan State just used up all the luck. I almost feel sorry for him.

Some terrible predictions
1. Iowa fair catches every punt.
2. Iowa's defense scores two times.
3. Ricky Stanzi averages over 10 yards an attempt.
4. Paki O'meara will score a rushing TD
5. Indiana's only score will come on a Ray Fisher Kick off Return.

I know that this is really long. I have been doing these in two parts and if you have survived to the end of this I thank you. Here is my final prediction: Iowa 38 Indiana 13 and still no love from the national media.

Does This Win Gain Ricky the Coaching Staffs' Trust?

2009-10-27T01:20:00.000-07:00

Since Coach Ferentz has taken over the Iowa progam the Hawkeyes have reached new heights of success. Iowa finished ranked 8th three consecutive seasons from 2002 through 2004 and played in four consecutive January Bowl games. This season is looking rosy already and Iowa still has four games left to play with only one really tough stumbling block left on the schedule- Ohio State in Columbus. Ferentz and his staff have followed the same blueprint in almost all of those seasons' a balanced offensive attack featuring a smashmouth running attack and a stifling defense that plays fundamentally sound and basic coverages. There has only been one abberation offensively- the 2004 season when Iowa was down to 5th string running back walk on Sam Brownlee and turned Drew Tate loose on the Big Ten. Iowa basically changed offenses mid-stream during that season and went pretty much 70% to a 3 wide shotgun look that relied on Tate's ability to read defenses and extend plays with his mobility and playmaking ability. That was the last time that Iowa won a Big Ten Title. Iowa just has to hang on and win three of the next four to at least win a share of the title this season.

Ricky Stanzi isn't Drew Tate. At least he isn't yet. He doesn't have Tate's ability to process information and ability to extend plays and see receivers break open downfield consistently. He isn't as accurate as Tate was (a healthy Drew Tate for people who only remember his senior year). Stanzi has some things going for him that Tate didn't. He isn't as high strung and seems impervious to pressure. He seems to be genuinely like by all of his teammates and that didn't always seem to be the case for Drew at the end of his career, although looking at the attrition around the program and some of the comments from some of his teammates of that era, that might not have been a bad thing. He is tall enough to be invited to the NFL scouting combine if he continues to improve. He also has a group of receivers at his disposal that Tate could only dream about. But Tate also seemed to have something that Stanzi doesn't yet have. The absolute trust to go out and win the game.

Stanzi is a winner, there is no doubt about that as he has started 19 games and won 16 of them. But a case could be made that Iowa has won some of those games in spite of Stanzi or that the defense won them. I don't want to make that case. In fact I want to make the case to let him do more. I feel like he turned the corner in the Arkansas State game even with the pick 6 he threw in that game. I actually think he was underutilized in that game and that we went away from the long pass for no reason at all in that game. Iowa scored early on two long passing plays and my game notes show Arkansas State was still playing 8 in the box and daring Iowa to throw the ball- playing single coverage on the outside. Stanzi could have thrown for 4 TDs in the first half and McNutt might have caught three TDs in the first half if the Hawks had kept attacking. Arky State didn't adjust or do anything to take it away, Iowa just stopped trying for that play. On the second play of first possession of the 2nd half Iowa runs the Go Route for McNutt and, cue Gary Dolphin, "Touchdown Iowa". Ricky threw 2 interceptions in that game but both were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. It was the long ball that was working all day. And that is the strength of Stanzi's game.

Quarterbacks who are percieved to win games are asked to do it at the end of games or in clutch situations. Iowa doesn't ask Stanzi to do that or they don't put him in postion to do it. I don't know if it is a matter of not trusting him or a ridiculous amount of faith in the defense. Until last Saturday the defense had been up to the task all season and they still allowed only 13 points, normally plenty enough to win you a game. Here are the reasons a couple of the reasons I don't think the "training wheels" have been taken off of Stanzi yet.

Until "The Drive" versus Michigan State, Iowa had not successfully completed a "2 minute drill"this season. At the end of the first half versus Arizona - Iowa stopped a field goal fake and took over with 2:49 left in the first half, a nice momentum swing. Brandon Wegher promptly popped off a 15 yard gain giving Iowa decent field position (their own 35) and plenty of time left to try to extend their 14- 10 lead. Stanzi competed a 7 yard pass to Wegher and then Iowa sat on the ball punting it away. Against Michigan Iowa was seemingly content to run out the clock when a Michigan time out spurred them into passing mode so they could try to run out the clock some more. They then ran three passing plays in a row, getting into field goal range on a beautifully executed flare to Brett Morse. They inexplicably picked up a delay penalty knocking Murray out of his comfort zone with Time Outs in their pocket. Murray missed the field goal.

And finally I think the Coaching Staff takes the ball out of Stanzi's hands content to let the defense win close games. This philosophy has won us 7 close games so far this season. But Iowa could have chance to put a couple games away earlier, including last Saturday's game with more aggressive playcalling. In fairness they tried to give him a chance to salt away the UNI game and Stanzi and the offense came up short, calling four pass plays out of a six play drive (including the punt and scrambles). I also found no flaws with the Arkansas State playcalling, giving them a 80+ yard field with less than 20 seconds.
But the Michigan game drove me crazy. At the time no one knew Forcier was hurt. Iowa had a 3rd and 4 from their own 39. If they had converted it Michigan was out of time outs and the game was over. Michigan was only down two and only needed a field goal to win. Iowa ran Power I zone Lead with a Fullback to Bulaga's side into a blitzing 9 man front. No numbers advantage and a run for a loss. Thank you Denard Robinson.
Against Wisconsin, Iowa had a relatively comfortable 10 point lead with 3:30 remaining. Iowa goes for it on 4th and 5. Iowa runs play action and has Allen Reisner completely alone. There is a hilarious thread on the Scout site about interpreting Kirk's smirk. Stanzi wasn't throwing the ball. If he was throwing the ball he would have stopped rolling out and just thrown the ball. Touchdown, 27 - 10 nightmares of crazy plays and onside kicks abate and you relax. Instead thank you Scott Tolzien.
Finally the Michigan State game. Iowa passes the ball on a perfectly thrown fade to DJK. They then run a Power I with 2 TEs to the short side of the field to Adam Robinson. Good play, well blocked, Greg Jones is a stud, saves a TD. Iowa then has to burn a Time Out getting the play in. That is the KOK I know and love. Next play is the same formation except Iowa motions Reisner to the wide side of the field, same zone lead 2 yard gain, holding called on Bulaga, debatable call, oh well. Now it is 2 and Goal from the 13. This is probably a passing down. Iowa comes out with 3 wide outs( a slot to the wide side of the field) and Robinson in the backfield, Tony Moeaki as the Tight End on the short side of the field. MSU is still in their base defense. The line up exactly like Iowa does here. Iowa has a run called to the short side of the field. They can't block everyone. It is 5 to 6.


ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
                                    -
                                    -
                                    -
              SS                  -
____________________________________
                                    -
                                    -
                                    -
                       SLB MLB
____________________________________
                                    -
CB                  DE   NG
                          TETGC
FL

That is my bad attempt at play art to explain what I mean about a numbers mismatch. I am not including the other side of the line #1 because that took 10 minutes and #2, the DE came back around Moeaki to make the tackle for a three yard gain. So Iowa now has Third and Goal from Ten yard line.Pass right? No they run basically the same play out of shotgun only Moeaki is on the other side and Iowa has a better front to block. Three down lineman, three linebackers and five defensive backs. I have three problems with this playcall. One it didn't suprise me. Two if you are worried about a turnover that means you trust a true freshman runningback more than your offensive line and your quarterback. And finally three, if you don't make it it leaves Murray a terrible angle for the field goal and he was already looking shaky on the first two. Fortunately it didn't matter.

Stanzi has now dropped back 101 times without throwing a pick since the interception return for a TD versus Michigan although he does have a fumble lost in there. He is making better decisions and getting out of bad plays when he is given time to do so. As the games progress he continues to get better becoming more and more comfortable with what he is seeing and more confident as the game goes on. He has as much natural ability as any quarterback to play for Iowa. He certainly has the poise and leadership skills to lead Iowa to a special season. This team can only go as far as he can take them. He has earned the right to do more than be a caretaker. He now also has one other thing in common with Drew Tate- a signature win that Hawk fans will never forget.

Michigan State Vs. Iowa Matchups Part II

2009-10-23T17:58:00.000-07:00

In part one I broke down MSU's offensive tendencies. I expect to see less of traditional power I sets and I formations from MSU in this game and more Shotgun in this game. I don't think that MSU will be able to run the ball in this game. Wisconsin had a much better run blocking Oline than MSU and their best running back (Glenn Winston) is out for the year with a torn ACL. Here are the rest of the matchups for this game.

94 Adrian Clayborn RE and 91 Broderick Binns LE Vs. 57 Rocco Cironi LT SR 6'6 309 and 59 D.J. Young RT JR 6'5 310, 77 J'Michael Deane RT JR 6'5 312: Cironi is a 3 year starter and a pretty solid player. He is better as a run blocker than in pass protection.  He struggled against Wisconsin in pass protection. Young and Deane are both inexperienced and have both moved from the defensive line. They are both athletic and better at this point at run blocking. Both have really struggled when left on an island in pass protection and have benefitted from having a tight end left in to help them in pass protection. Clayborn and Binns have excelled at rushing the passer and have done a pretty nice job in run support. They have done very good at pursuit when the run isn't there way. It is important for them to recognize when #7 Keith Nichol comes in at QB for MSU as he is a running threat from the shotgun formation. They will have to read the option on the QB- read play. This will be the 8th week in a row they would face that as Wisconsin brought in Kurt Phillips in for a series to try it after Monte Ball's TD.
Spud's Spin: Big Edge to the Hawks here. Clayborn may be the most complete Defensive End in the Big Ten even though he doesn't have the flashy stats that Graham, Heyward, or Scholfield do. He is more stout against the run and affects more plays than than any of those players. Binns just continues to improve every week and is the best natrural pass rusher Iowa has had since Matt Roth. He should cause either RT he is facing a lot of issues this weekend.

DTs 46 Christian Ballard, 95 Karl Klug, and 93 Mike Daniels Vs. 67 Joel Foreman LG SO 6'4 306, 65 Joel Nitchman C SR 6'4 296, and 64 Brendan Moss RG SR 6'7 284: Foreman and Nitchman are returning starters and very good run blockers. They are also pretty solid in pass protection. When MSU is having protection breakdowns this season it is usually from the edges. Moss had only started one game coming into this season and had played mostly tackle before this season. The successful runs I have seen for them have been on his side. He has the ability to pull and is deadly on the second level. He is very athletic for a guard. He can be manhandled however and isn't a good matchup for someone as strong as Christian Ballard, who will be lined up across from him. Ballard and Klug just continue to plug along disrupting schemes. Daniels was a revelation last week making the most of his opportunity and hopefully playing his way into some kind of a rotation. He really plays low and was the most disruptive Hawkeye on the field in his first appearance in the game.
Spud's Spin:  Edge Iowa. Again this is just not a good matchup for MSU.  They really struggled against their only comparable opponent Wisconsin and I think Iowa has a more talented Dline. If Iowa continues to rotate Daniels in and give Klug and Ballard breathers and keep them both fresh for the entire game this could be and even bigger strength for the Hawks.

49 A.J. Edds SLB and 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 83 Charlie Gantt TE JR 6'5 248, 88 Brian Linthicum TE SO 6'5 248, and 85 Garrett Celek TE SO 6'5 243: Gantt is the bellcow of this group. He killed Iowa last year but is a little forgotten this season. He has also been asked to stay in and block more than he had to last season given some of the pass protection issues they have been experiencing. Gantt is probably the third best TE in the Big Ten after Moeaki and Graham from Whisky. He can run any route and do something with the ball in his hands. Linthicum and Celek are better receivers than blockers but they are adequate run blockers. They are on the field alot. Edds is going to get a chance to play over a tight end some against MSU but they really like to run "twin" formations so he should be on a slot most of the time. Hunter has to get his hands on Gantt and disrupt his routes and tackle well when he is asked to cover him.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa.  This is closer than I would like it to be. If Hoyer was still the QB I might favor the Sparty here but Cousin's doesn't seem to look for his tight ends nearly as often as Hoyer did. It is really important for Edds and Hunter to shed blocks from the TEs in this game in order to control the running game as they like to run outside zones with 2 tight end formations and for Edds to tackle well vs. the slot screen in the open field as that seems to be MSU's signature play.

CBs 19 Amari Spievey, 28 Shaun Prater, and 10 Willie Lowe Vs. WRs 25 Blair White SR 6'2 200, 3 B.J. Cunningham SO 6'2 212, 2 Mark Dell Jr 6'2 197, 82 Keeshawn Martin SO 5'11 185, and 16 Chris D. Rucker SO 5'10 174: Blair White and B.J. Cunningham are the most dangerous players in this group. White is coming off an incredible game against Northwestern where he caught 12 balls for 182 yards. He runs very good routes, understands coverage, and doesn't drop passes. He has a knack for making tacklers miss. Cunningham is dangerous after the catch. He breaks tackles and runs pretty decent routes and has above average speed. Dell is the other main cog in the spread looks that they run. He is mostly a possession guy. He doesn't drop passes and is a very good blocker. He also seems to be a pretty good leader and understand coverage as well. Martin and Rucker are fast but are just "guys" right now. I think they are just in to give the top 3 a breather right now. Speivey is having the best season I have ever seen an Iowa CB have. He is a physical tackler and truly a shutdown corner. Prater is really coming on and almost baited Tolzien into another pick last week like he did in the Penn State game. He has also really done a nice job in run support.
Spud's Spin:   Push. I would give the nod to MSU if I knew how smart their OC was but I don't. The fact that they only scored 24 on Northwestern after both of their starting safeties were hurt early in the first half makes me think that he isn't real bright. Wooten was also hurt for Northwestern and they still generated a pretty good pass rush. If he is smart enough to keep Sash and Spievey on the same side and not throw in that direction than edge MSU. If he isn't Edge Iowa.

43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. 22 Larry Caper FR 5'11 215, 4 Edwin Baker FR 5'9 200, and 24 Caulton Ray R.FR 5'9 195: Caper has taken over the #1 tailback spot after the seaon ending injury to Glenn Winston. Caper has decent vision and runs with some decent power- he will break arm tackles. He runs pretty tall and could be fumble prone. Baker saw his first significant action last week as he had his redshirt stripped.  He also runs with some pretty decent power and showed a nice burst hitting the hole. He doesn't show the same vision as Caper but doesn't have the same amount of carries as Caper so far. Caulton is not used as much and is pretty much a speed guy.  MSU's TBs don't seem to be a factor in the passing game. Angerer is coming off of his best game of the season. He owned John Clay in the second half. None of the guys he is facing this week will have the power of Clay and Angerer could have a field day if MSU tries to stick to the run. Angerer also showed nice acceleration on his limited blitzes.
Spud's Spin: Edge Iowa Angerer sees this running scheme every weekday in practice and should be able to read his keys in his sleep. If he can sift through the traffic he could pile up a career high in tackles for losses. I just don't know if MSU is going to try to run the ball very much. Angerer is also very solid in pass coverage and does a very good job of getting depth in pass coverage and has the speed to make up for a false step in case of play action. Caper is the MSU Tailback most likely to make a difference in this game.

9 Tyler Sash SS and 30 Brett Greenwood FS Vs QBs 8 Kirk Cousins SO 6'3 202 and 7 Kieth Nichol SO 6'2 215: Cousins and Nichol were rotating for most of the season but Cousins seems to be the man now. Cousins is pretty much a drop back passer. He is fighting an injured ankle but he looked about as mobile as normal vs. NU. Cousins has a nice accurate arm, nice pocket awareness, he reads coverage well, and he has nice touch. He doesn't try to force the ball into tight spots. He doesn't seem to have elite arm strenght, the ball seems to float on him and he seems to have a funky delivery. He is also as slow as the minute hand on the time clock at your work on a Friday afternoon. I don't know how he ran for a 40 yard gain against Michigan. Nichol is the runner. He can throw but he is in there to add the run element to their spread attack. He isn't nearly the passer that Cousins is. He is also battling an ankle issue and didn't play vs NU. Therefore his effectiveness is greatly limited. I don't expect to see him.
Spud's spin: Edge Iowa. This game could come down to how patient Cousins' will be. If he can be content to throw nice easy passes against Iowa's zone and slowly march the ball down the field and stay away from Amari Spievey he could win the game for MSU. If he is content to throw the ball away on third and long and let their punter do his job he could win the game. If he tries to force the ball down the field over Iowa's linebackers and under Iowa's safeties he will be feeding the vultures. Sash and Greenwood will get interceptions. He doesn't have a strong enough arm to throw deep outs against Iowa's D and Iowa's LBs get such good depth on thier drops that he can't really attack the deep middle either. The long throw against Iowa is a turnover waiting to happen for him at this point in his career.

Some terrible predictions:
1. Niether team rushes for 100 total yards.
2. Ricky Stanzi throws for his first 300 yard game.
3. No Iowa receiver goes over 100 yards.
4. Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns combine for 5 sacks.
5. B.J. Cunningham leads MSU in receiving yards totaling over 100.

It would be nice for Iowa to come out hot but obviously that isn't necassary for them to win. I understand that the weather is supposed to be bad and that is supposed to favor the running game, but I just don't see either team's defense allowing the other to run. I think both teams will come out passing. Iowa's Oline can pass protect. Michigan State's can't.
Spud's Spin: Final Score Iowa 28 MSU 17

Michigan State Vs. Iowa Matchups Part I

2009-10-22T21:40:00.000-07:00

Iowa is facing the most critical game in the last several seasons. Probably the most season defining game since the Ohio State game of 2005. There is one more really important game left on the schedule if Iowa clears this hurdle but it all depends on The Hawks winning this one. MSU has won three in a row after a rough September.  The games I have reviewed are Michigan and Northwestern which both run spreads. I am going to make this a two parter since I did so much up front.  The first part will be Iowa's offense vs MSU's defense.

They are a fairly talented team offensively and fairly veteran on the Oline. They are run a "multiple" offensive scheme which means they run a lot of different formations. They really like to run a lot of Two tight end formations, and have one elite Tight end in Charlie Gantt. They also use a lot of I and Power I (two tight ends). They like to line up with alot of "twin" formations(2 receiver to the same side of the field). Finally they use a lot of Shotgun Spread and are willing to run out of it. They favor the zone blocking scheme for their running game that Iowa uses. They will pull their guards more often than Iowa and run counters out of their I and power I similar to Wisconsin. I haven't seen them run play-action off of their counter play.

Passing-wise they love the screen play to the slot receiver and ran it at least 5 times against Northwestern. They have three talented receivers and two capable qbs. Blair White is a talented receiver who is out of the Ed Hinkel mold. Charlie Gantt was a thorn in Iowa's side last season and can run the whole passing route tree. The Tailbacks haven't been too involved in the passing game so far this season. The fullback Hawken has caught a few outlet passes but isn't a primary target.

Defensively Iowa will be looking in the mirror. MSU runs a 4-3 against just about any formation. Their WLB is a converted Safety who has the speed and cover skills to not look too foolish in zone coverage vs. wide outs. All three LBs are very speedy. They have three talented DL and play as many as 10 during a game. They don't stunt as often as Iowa. They look to play zone coverage most of the time and rush 4 most of the time like Iowa. Trevor Anderson is a very good player but isn't on the level of Brandon Graham or O'Brien Sholfield. When MSU forces a third and Long they go to a 3-3-5 look and generally blitz out of it. They bring at least 4 and usually 5 and look to disguise where it is coming from. Their secondary isn't extremely talented with the exception of Chris L. Rucker. He is a playmaker.

Last Season Iowa had the edge in this game statistically except for the turnover battle. They held Jovan Ringer to under 100 yards rushing and Brian Hoyer under 200 yards passing.  Hoyer is now the backup Qb to one Tom Brady.  Both teams are so drastically different I don't think it will really have any bearing on the game but I will print it anyway. Here are last season's stats:
MSU                                                                                  Iowa
FD Rush Att. Yds.   Co./ Att. Yds.   Scks/ Agnst.            FD   Rush Att.   Yds.   Co./ Att.   Yds.    Sck
15   34             91      13    24    184       1                          19    39             151     15   22      158     3

Ok here are they match ups like usual.

79 Brian Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT Vs. 58 Trevor Anderson SR 6'2 260, 89 Colin Neely JR 6'1 248, and 91 Ty Hoover FR 6'7 260 :     The last couple of weeks have been rough ones for the bookend for the Iowa Tackles. Anderson, Neely, and Hoover are not as talented as the players they have faced in Graham and Scholfield but they play their responsibilities well. Anderson pretty much will be lined up over Calloway and Neely and Hoover should line up on Bulaga.
Spud's Spin: This should be an edge to Iowa. Although niether Iowa tackle is having the type of season that they were expected to they are still playing at a fairly high level and a mistake on the edge is pretty easy to see. Calloway certainly has the tougher assignment of the two but Anderson is more of an effort player and isn't really polished as he really just tries to bull his way in and occasionally works a spin move. Both players should be able to physically win in the run game.

78 Dace Richardson G, 77 Riley Reiff G, 52 Rafael Eubanks C, 63 Julian Vandervelde G Vs. 70 Oren Wilson JR 6'3 293, 99 Jerel Worthy R.FR 6'3 292, 92 Ishmyl Johnson SO 6'5 280, 96 Kevin Pickelman 6'4 268 SO:  Freshman Jerel Worthy had to redshirt last season or he might have seen the field. He is super talented and has made plays all season for them. Oren Wilson doesn a nice job of occupying blockers and keeping the linebackers clean. Johnson and Pickelman see a lot of plays in order to keep Wilson and Worthy fresh but their is a significant drop off in run defense when they are in the game. Pickelman is pretty undersized for a Big Ten D-lineman (I know he is bigger than Klug).   I am not a fan of the rotation going on right now but I understand why it is happening. I think that Reiff is better suited strength and build- wise to be a tackle but the experience he is getting right now is invualable. I think that Vandervelde has played well enough in the last two games to get the starting job back. I understand he looked like crap against Arkansas State but he wasn't the only one missing assignments in that game. I also think he has been close to flawless in pass protection this season and Iowa may have to abandon the running game early in this game to move the ball. Richardson has been the rock of the interior. I also think that Eubanks has been steadily improving and has been doing a steady job of making the line calls all year.
Spud's Spin: I would give Iowa the edge here when Reiff is not in the game and other wise call it a push. Iowa just has such and experience edge here and seemed really figure things out in the second half against Wisconsin. MSU really struggled against the only other smash mouth team they have faced this season in Wisconsin and I think Iowa's Oline is superior to the Badgers'.

81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 43 Eric Gordon SLB JR 6'0 228: Moeaki has played in two games in a row which may be a personal record. Just kidding. When Moeaki is healthy Iowa's offense is just so different. Every formation and play is just so much more effective. He didn't have his best blocking game and still was a difference maker with his receiving. Gordon is a very good player. He is very fast for the position, instinctive, and a solid tackler. He isn't going to awe you with his physicality when he tackles you but he gets you down. He also doesn't get fooled often, doesn't take a lot of false steps or poor angles to ball carriers. He is also a fairly effective blitzer and stays on the field regardless of the down. He isn't asked to do a lot of man to man coverage.
Spud's Spin:   Big edge Iowa. As good as Gordon is there is no one in the big ten that I wouldn't give the edge to Moeaki to. Tony M. is possibly Iowa's most talented player and when he is on the field he is Iowa's most dangerous offensive option in the passing game. If MSU tries to cover him with a linebacker they in for a long day. If they let him block a safety we might actually be able to run the ball. He will win any match up he is presented.

82 Allen Reisner TE and 36 Brett Morse FB Vs. 34 Brandon Denson SR 5' 11 230 WLB, 10 Chris Norman FR 6'1 210 WLB, and 33 Danny Fortener SR 6'1 205: Reisner and Morse are going to be responsible for getting a helmet on these guys in the running game. They should have a strength advantage on all of them. Denson is very fast, and is a converted safety playing his second season as a linebacker, he can be guilty of overpusuing and taking bad angles. Norman is a very good athlete but a true freshman and pretty inexperienced and vulnerable in coverage. I am guessing that Fortener will be the Safety in the box most of the time. He is a pretty solid tackler and run support is the strength of his game. I think all three of these guys are vulnerable to play-action if Iowa can get any semblance of a run game going.
Spud's spin: Overall Push, I give Iowa the edge in the passing game but Morse has been forgotten in that aspect of the offense lately after a strong start. I give MSU the edge in the run game with the help that Iowa's predicability gives defenses. It is tough to block players that know what you are running in advance.

WRS 15 DJK , 86 Trey Stross, 7 Marvin McNutt, 22 Colin Sandeman, and 6 Keenan Davis Vs. 29 Chris L. Rucker JR 6'2 199, 9 Jeremy Ware SR 5'11 188, 37 Ross Weaver SR 6'1 203, and 38 Kendell Davis-Clark SR 6'0 216: This is the big weakness for MSU and they try to hide it by playing a lot of zone coverage. They play a lot of base cover 2 when they can and when they get you in third and long they try to pressure so they don't have to expose their cbs for a long time. The best player in this unit is Rucker by far. Ware, Weaver and Davis-Clark are basically the same player- below average. They do generally tackle well and they are pretty much just looking to keep players in front of them. I would really like to take some time to complement all of Iowa's wide outs but especially Colin Sandeman. He has done a nice job returning punts and was the guy at the end of the game who was blocking when Iowa was killing clock.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge Iowa. If Iowa comes out aggressive and opens up the playbook they should attack Ware early and often regardless who is lined up on his side. If they can loosen up the defense with some successful early passing then they can get that safety out of the box and try to run with even numbers. If they want to run early they need to be more creative and have three wide outs in the game. These guys are taking their blocking seriously. Chris Rucker is a good physical tackler, the rest are not that good in the run game.

32 Adam Robinson TB and 3 Brandon Wegher TB Vs. 53 Greg Jones MLB SR 6'1 228: Jones is probably the best linebacker in the Big Ten not wearing a Hawkeye or Penn State jersey. He plays his assignment well, is very fast, tackles well and can blitz very well for a mike 'backer. He is decent in pass coverage but his strength is sifting through traffic and tracking down ball carriers. He is a legit sideline to sideline playmaker. Robinson seems to be getting better every week. His vision is what is impressing me the most. He is also running very physical for his size. He had a pretty big drop on a third down last week but that is about the only negative you can point to. Wegher is still struggling to adapt to Iowa's scheme. He seems to be looking to bounce every run outside and is trying to outrun every player. He forgets that he has a little shimmy and can put some moves on guys. He has also been the victim of some pretty bad blocking and playcalls. He is an outstanding weapon in the passing game.
Spud's Spin: Huge edge MSU. Jones has tons of experience over both of these guys and really does a nice job of reading his keys. Iowa is pretty easy to scout and that should make for a long day for both of Iowa's runners unless KOK decides to change things up or the Oline absolutely dominate.

12 Rick Stanzi QB Vs. 11 Marcus Hyde FS 6'0 206 JR: Stanzi needs to continue the solid decision making and accuracy he displayed in Wisconsin. If he can manipulate Hyde with his eyes he should have the opportunity to make plays downfield with one on one coverage as I expect MSU to come out with 8 in the box. Hyde (the older brother of current Hawkeye frosh Micah) is a good athlete but he is a first year starter and hasn't estabished himself as a playmaker yet. If Rick can move him around good things could be in store as Tolzien had a huge day for Wisconsin against this secondary.
Spud's Spin:    Edge Iowa/ I think Stanzi is more comfortable on the road. Stanzi's mobility is also very underrated. He isn't looking to run for a ton of yards, but he escapes trouble and looks to make throws and throws very, very well on the run. I am predicting his first turnover free game of the season. That would bring his average at Michigan State to 1 a game. I would also encourage KOK to take out the 2nd down qb sneak in the red zone. FOREVER!

A Randon Little Rant

2009-10-21T00:10:00.000-07:00

Misperceptions about Iowa's talent level

I get a little tired of hearing about how Iowa takes overlooked players and coaches them up. Iowa does a pretty good job of recruiting. The difference between Iowa and Elite programs is the depth at every position. Iowa cannot afford significant injuries at multiple positions. Iowa's starting lineup is filled with "3 and 4 star" players. The Hawks starters were mostly highly recruited. The exceptions would be FS Brett Greenwood, FB Brett Morse, TB Adam Robinson, and DT Karl Klug although I think several Big Ten teams were in on Klug. Iowa does do a good job of coaching up their players and there are great stories of the "diamond in the rough" variety every season. But to say that Iowa doesn't have players that other programs' didn't covet or recruit isn't accurate. Here is a look at the two Sites that rank Hawkeye recruits Rivals and Scout and comparing them to Texas starting lineup.

Pos. Name Rivals Scout Year

WR Trey Stross 3* 4* 2005

WR Derrell Johnson- Koulianos 3* 3* 2006

WR Colin Sandeman 3* 3* 2007

ATH Marvin McNutt 3* 3* 2007

WR Keenan Davis 4* 4* 2009

RB Adam Robinson 2* 2* 2008

RB Brandon Wegher 4* 4* 2009

QB Brett Morse 2* 2* 2006

TE Tony Moeaki 4* 5* 2005

TE Allen Reisner 2* 2* 2007

QB Ricky Stanzi 3* 2* 2007

OL Brian Bulaga 4* 4* 2007

OL Dace Richardson 4* 5* 2005

OL Rafael Eubanks 4* 4* 2005

OL Julian Vandervelde 3* 2* 2006

OL Kyle Calloway 3* 3* 2005

OL Andy Keumpal 3* 3* 2005

DL Riley Reiff 3* 3* 2008

DL Adam Gettis 2* 2* 2007

DE Adrian Clayborn 4* 4* 2006

DT Karl Klug 2* 2* 2006

DT Christian Ballard 4* 4* 2007

DE Broderick Binns 3* 3* 2007

LB A.J. Edds 3* 4* 2006

LB Pat Angerer 3* 3* 2005

LB Jeremiha Hunter 4* 4* 2006

CB Amari Spievey 2*/4*juco 2*/4*juco 2006

CB Shaun Prater 3* 3* 2008

FS Brett Greenwood N/A 2* 2006

SS Tyler Sash 3* 3* 2007

P Ryan Donahue 2* 4* 2006

K Daniel Murray 2* 2* 2006

and now Texas starting lineup

QB McCoy 3 4 2005

TB McGee 4 4 2007

WR Shipley 4 4 2004

WR Kierkendoll 4 4 2007

WR Chiles 4 4 2007

TE Smith 3 2 2006

T Ulaloski 3 3 2004

T Tanner 3 3 2005

G Hall 3 3 2005

G Snow 4 4 2008

C Hix 4 4 2007

DE S. Acho 3 4 2007

DT Randall 4 3 2008

DT Houston 4 4 2005

DE Kindle 5 5 2006

LB E. Acho 3 4 2008

LB Robinson 4 4 2008

LB Muckelroy 3 4 2006

CB Williams 4 5 2008

CB Brown 5 4 2007

S Thomas 4 4 2008

S Gideon 2 3 2007

There isn't a drastic difference between the two line-ups. The difference is between the talent of the back-ups. Another "4 or 5 star" is waiting on the bench at a Texas or Florida or USC. Iowa has to coach up the back ups and project a linebacker into a d-end or tackle. They turn high school tight ends into tackles or qbs into linebackers or wide receivers. They do more coaching and teaching at Iowa. But the front line players at Iowa are just as talented as the front line players anywhere else. You can't tell me a coaching staff wouldn't find a place for Clayborn, Edds, Spievey, or Bulaga? Moeaki couldn't find a place in any scheme? Even Stanzi shows flashes of brilliance at times. You can see why Rivals rated him a 3 star. So the next time Iowa is on ESPN2 and Pam Ward is talking about how Northwestern and Iowa are evenly matched talentwise just giggle. Or when Lou Holtsh is trashing Iowa's players while praising Iowa's coaching staff remember he is saying they can't recruit. Or when Gerry Dinardo is saying, well I never understand whay he is saying, but he is better than Mason. That is part of the coaching staff's job too. And they have landed one of their better classes ever already and its not even November yet. Iowa's Coaching Staff is problaby already working on the 2011 class since the 2010 class is pretty much full.

Wisconsin Film Review

2009-10-20T22:25:00.000-07:00

Same Format as usual. Iowa overcame its usual slow start to overwhelm Wisconsin and completely control the second half, winning 20 to 10 and really it wasn't that close. Iowa's defense was so dominant after the third offensive series for Wisconsin it was breathtaking. Wisconsin had eight series after Monte Ball's Touchdown with 8:10 remaining in the second quarter. Five of them ended as 3 and outs and the other three as interceptions. Wisconsin rushed the ball 10 times for 14 yards.including three negative plays not including sacks. Iowa's Linebackers completely controlled the middle of the field in the passing game and A.J. Edds may have played the best game of his Iowa career. His tackling of receivers in open space was incredible and his interception was a thing of beauty. His coverage also forced the first pick for Spievey. I came away impressed with Scholfield, Clay had better feet than I thought,Oglesby, Zietler and Konz will be tough to deal with for the next few years, and Taylor and Borland give Wisconsin a pair of playmaking linebackers to build a defense around. Wisconsin loses only a few players and if they hold on to O.C Chryst they will be a formidble opponent in the years to come. Now for the Negatives, Postives and Coaching comments.

Negatives:
Offensive Line Play (first half): Iowa is still struggling to find its stride here and this is part of the slow start plaguing the team right now. I can't put my finger on one thing. I wonder if teams are jumping the snap count. That is just a wild-ass guess. Scholfield could just be that good. I just have never seen Bulaga look that silly two weeks in a row. I understand that he is still rounding into form after a three week lay-off and missed some camp also but I expect he will be wearing an Iowa uniform next season now. Calloway struggled with the speed rush of the OLB Borland on third downs when Whisky ran their dime or nickel packages and Reiff seems to be a little too light to play guard. He seems a more natural fit for the tackle position. Not all of the running games struggles can be laid at the feet of the Oline as five players cannot be expected to block eight, and Moeaki really seemed to struggle with his run blocking in the first half as well. I also felt the team wasn't always put in the best position to succeed formationally(much more on that later). Iowa seemed to gain its stride throughout the game and was dominating by the end of the game. The pass protection in the second half was close to flawless.

The Zone Play to the Short Side of the Field: Last week it was the flare or three yard out to the slot receiver out of the ace formation (3 wide, 1 te, 1 back), but this entire year it seems to be the weak side zone play regardless of the formation or personnel. Iowa is seeing 8 man fronts on first or second down almost 80% of the time. Usually a safety or a corner is in the box and sometimes both and Iowa is still trying to run to the weak side of the formation where they don't have a numbers advantage. So they can't possibly block everyone. Robinson has done a nice job of recognizing cutback lanes occasionally, but most of the time this has led to a no gain or a run for a loss. When Iowa switched things up in the second half and began running out of the first formation I mentioned good things began happening. Another thing that may help is for Iowa to set up a dummy audible. For Stanzi to act like he is changing the play ala Peyton Manning and wait for the defense to adjust and then run whatever genius call KOK dialed up.

After a win like that I'm really just carping.

Positives:
The Linebacking Corps: This was the most complete and physical game that this unit has played all year. This was the type of performance I have been looking for all season and hope to see for the rest of the season. Even early when the Badgers were having success running the ball, the players trusted the scheme and played there responsibilties. When the Dline started taking over the LOS Angerer, Hunter and Edds started cleaning up and punishing Clay and Ball. They punished receivers when Tolzien could complete a pass over the middle and forced him to make bad throws by playing excellent coverage by getting great depth in their drops. I don't know if Edds has ever played better. He should get half of Spievey's first pick.

Rick Kaczienski: I probably murdered his name as I am going off of memory. He is Iowa's Dline coach and he is doing a masterful job of coaching his unit. Something that I think is underappreciated is the amount of passes this unit is knocking down or altering by jumping. Binns and Edds forced Tolzien out for a loss once but it happened because Binns jumped up instead of continuing to pursue giving Edds the time to force the QB out of bounds. Against Michigan Binns had two pass deflections and one was almost picked. Klug had one early against Wisconsin. Inserting Mike Daniels early in the game giving Klug and Ballard some rest seemed to keep both fresh and Daniels was a real difference maker. I would guess he played his way into the regular rotation. I would look to see more of Lebron Daniel and Cody Hundertmark for the rest of the season if not this week, than against Indiana and Northwestern.

Rick Stanzi: Stanzi played very well. I have no negative marks in my game notes about him. Even the fumble was really not his fault. The rush got to him so fast he really didn't have a chance to react. He really seems to be more comfortable away from Kinnick which should bode well for Iowa this week. He was really on target and on time with all of his throws and used the whole field. He showed decent pocket awareness and used his feet to get out of trouble and scrambled to make the biggest play of the game offensively for Iowa the 24 yard TD to Moeaki.

Adam Robinson: Robinson has really impressed me with his vision which may be the single most important attribute for a runner in Iowa's system. He really finishes his runs well too. Robinson just seems to have a better feel at this time for where the hole is going to be and for when to hit it. He also seems to have a little something for the first guy who makes contact with him and runs through traffic extremely well. It may be time for defined roles for Iowa's freshman duo. If Robinson is up to the extra work Iowa should give him two or three series in a row to see if he can handle the work load. If the rumors floating around about Wegher are true Iowa may not have a choice.

Coaching: I want to start with the good. Norm Parker set the tone early in this game by blitzing on the first third and long that Iowa forced. The result was a sack. Iowa looked a little shell shocked early and took some time adjusting to facing an old- fasioned power team, but once they did it was game over. When the Dline got their bearings and started pushing back Iowa took over the game. When Iowa is on schedule Defensively and forces third and longs they are much more aggresive than you might think. This tells me two things. Norm trusts this team- i.e. he is willing to play more players (more nickel and dime this season and last) and he thinks they are a good tackling team- he is more willing to blitz. He isn't always looking for the sack, just an early throw short of the chains.
Now the bad. The bad KOK was back in the first half. Real bad. Iowa was so predictable in fact that I think Wisconsin was probably calling out the plays. Iowa used 13 formations on Saturday. 2 of them were for passing only. Iowa really only has 4 basic running plays outside of the redzone. They can run those same plays out of any of the 11 other formations. One of the biggest problems I have is the slot receiver's motion. This is generally a dead give away to where Iowa is running the football. It is my opinion that Iowa would be better off running out of balanced formations or out of the 3 wr, 1 te, 1 back formation. They did this alot in the second half and had much more success running the football. They usually had the SLB out of the box. Teams are slanting their Dline and guessing correctly the direction of our zone run. It is amazing that neither Robinson nor Wegher have fumbled given how often they have been met 3-4 yards deep in the backfield. Iowa needs to continue to open games aggresive passing to soften up defenses and get the safety out of the box. KOK needs to be more creative formationally if he wants to continue to stubbornly run. At least run to the strong side of the formation more often than not where you have a numbers advantage. Don't try to be so tricky.
Finally KF had done a better job of managing the clock so far this season but this week was kind of a disaster. Iowa did not run a two minute offense with the ball at the end of the first half, punted stopped the Badgers, called two TOs, didn't like the Field Position and ran out the clock. Run the two minute offense the first time. Or don't call the Time outs. Or at least try to block the punt. That was just bewildering. Finally the last offensive play was a qb keeper where Reisner was wide open for a TD. There was a spirited debate about what KF's smile meant. I don't care what it meant, I still remember Northwestern 2005, and you score TDs when you can. That was inexcusable. If you trust Stanzi you let him throw the ball there. A JV QB could have made that play.
Ferentz is a very good coach but that kind of coaching is what lets Iowa be 16 points away from being undefeated last season and 9 points from being 4 and 3 this season. It is time to start putting teams away when they have a chance. Great win, great effort, just need better management and some tweaks for this to be a very special season. 11 in a row.

Iowa Vs. Wisconsin Matchups

2009-10-16T12:46:00.000-07:00

Just a one parter this week. I reviewed two games for Wisconsin- Michigan State and Minnesota. Minnesota is kind of a bad comparison for Iowa as they are transitioning from a spread to a Pro-style offense but it was what I had. I came into this week scared to death of this game and I am still mildly frightened. But I am left with this impression. If Iowa loses it will be due to their own mistakes. Wisconsin is a very young and talented team but is not close to contending for a Big Ten title yet. They have a solid not spectacular Oline, they have a very nice pair of running backs and tight ends, and a difference making pass rusher in O'brien Scholfield. This won't be nearly as in depth as the PSU and Michigan match ups have been because I feel that Iowa should dominate most of them. I am only going to highlight the important ones.

79 Brian Bulaga LT and 60 Kyle Calloway RT VS. 50 O'Brien Scholfield SDE: Scholfield is a beast when he rushes the passer. He also defends the run very well for his size (6'3 242). He has a great first step and reads the play very well almost never taking a bad angle or a false step. Sholfield lines up with his hand on the ground or standing up when Wisconsin goes 3-4. He usually lines up on the Tight End side and he likes to take a wide angle on obvious passing situations. He does occasionally drop into coverage when Whisky is in the 3-4 but he is generally used as a pass rusher. Bulaga is coming off his worst game as a pass protector. Graham made him look silly twice and hopefully he is finally fully back in prime football shape. Calloway has really improved his footwork and seemed to handle Graham with relative ease. If these guys can handle Scholfield there is really no other threat to consistently provide a pass rush. #44 Chris Borland usually rushes in the Dime package that they use but I was not impressed with Minny's Oline. Bielema is high on starter #99 J.J. Watt - a Central Michigan transfer but again I saw nothing especially impressive.

81 Tony Moeaki TE Vs. 53 Mike Taylor SLB: Taylor lines up over the tight end in Whisy's 4-3 which is their base defense. He or Borland are the Outside Weak LB in the 3-4 opposite of Scholfield when they go 3-4. Moeaki outwieghs Taylor by at least 25 lbs and has tons of experience on him. Taylor will be playing his seventh game. Although sometimes it seems like Moeaki has only played seven games Moeaki should have a huge advantage in both phases of the game over Taylor or Wisconsin's safeties #2 Jay Alai or #21 Chris Maragos. Moeaki is obviously Stanzi's security blanket. Alai is the only Wisconsin player who is ballsy enough to jump a route and play out of postion.

15 DJK, 7 McNutt, 86 Stross, 22 Sandeman, 6 Davis Vs. 26 Antonio Fenelus, 10 Devin Smith and 7 Aaron Henry: This could be Wisconsin's biggest weak spot. If they decide to throw a safety in the box and try to play man coverage I trust every one of Iowa's receivers to consistently win a matchup versus any one of these players. Each of these guys have looked lost at times and are poor tacklers. They are vulnerable to doulbe moves and give up big cushions. Wisconsin plays a lot of nickel and dime coverages on third downs so these guys will be counted on to play tight coverages when they go after Iowa in blitz packages.

91 Broderick Binns LDE Vs. 67 Josh Oglesby RT: Oglesby is a monster (6'7 329) but he is also mistake prone and slow. He is a solid run blocker but can be had in pass protection. QB Tolzien is a relatively stationary target and Binn's could have a field day. Oglesby is slow to get outside and I wouldn't be suprised to see Kendricks forced to stay inside and help him on obvious passing situations. If Wisconsin is successful between the tackles and Oglesby can lean on Binns however for play after play some of Binn's athletic advantage would be taken away.

49 A.J. Edds SLB and 42 Jeremiha Hunter WLB Vs. 89 Garrett Graham TE: Graham is a stud. He is a very good route runner and can get down the seam as well as run polished short routes. He is a chain mover and can read coverage. He seems to have a very good relationship with Tolzien and is thrown to more than any other player in this offense, possibly 45- 50 % of the throws. He is definately Tolzien's security blanket. He is not a great run blocker but he is adequate at sealing his defender on counters and lead plays which is 50 to 60% of Whisy's run offense. This will be the first time in a while that Edds actually gets to sniff the line of scrimmage. He really needs to stand out in this game as this will be a game that NFL scouts use to evaluate him on. His ability to sift through traffic and make tackles in the run game and set the edge and funnel runs back to the inside will be key. Wisconsin runs a lot of two receiver formations so Edds may end up outside of the box 50 % of first and second downs. Hunter will then be responsible for Graham initially in the passing game. I really think Hunter's pass coverage has improved but he still lags behind Angerer and Edds here. He will get some help from Greenwood or Sash here. How Iowa covers Graham and if they choose to man up Wisconsin and play 8 in the box could be the key to the game defensively. My guess is they won't and it will be business as usual. I would prefer that they mix it up occasionally and send the LBs occasionally as Tolzien hasn't responded well to pressure. Both Edds and Hunter could record a sack if Iowa would disguse a blitz.

43 Pat Angerer MLB Vs. 32 John Clay TB and 30 Zach Brown TB: Angerer could pile up tackle totals in the high teens. What matters is where he makes the tackles near or behind the line of scrimmage or seven or eight yards down the field. Clay is a big physical runner who always seems to fall forward. He is patient and really waits for his hole to develop. He doesn't break as many tackles as you would think for a runner his size and if he is engaged in the backfield he doesn't have the short are quickness to get out of trouble. He is a load between the tackles when they get it going however and seems at his best when they run the ball three or four times in a row. Brown is more of a change of pace runner who does his best work on the edges. He can run between the tackles but that isn't where his strength lies. He has good feet and can make a tackler or two miss. He has been fumble prone this season. Brown is the third down back and a decent receiving option.

9 Sash SS and 30 Greenwood FS Vs. 16 Scott Tolzien QB: Tolzien was the suprise winner of Wisconsin's QB derby this season. He has been pretty good but faltered a bit last week throwing two pick 6s. What I have noticed about him is that he makes solid decisions, he looks to make the easy throw, is pretty accurate and is at his best on playaction. He gets happy feet is if he is pressured, he is not very mobile although he did have a designed run for over 30 yards against Minny, he doesn't have a strong arm, and he seems to have small hands and could be prone to fumbles. If Sash and Greenwood play disciplined and don't get burned by playaction they could get themselves a turnover or two. Iowa cannot afford for them to get sucked in on a playfake and get burned deep. Wisconsin has only one real burner in #85 David Gilreath, although the starters #1 Nick Toon and #6 Isaac Anderson have decent size, Sash and Greenwood need to rely on the front 7 to play solid run defense and defend the pass first. Wisconsin has been turnover prone and Iowa's style of defense takes advantage of that. Tolzien is only making his 7th career start and is coming off his first dissappointing game at this level. I like Iowa's chances.

Some Terrible Predictions:
1. Between the two teams the tight ends (Moeaki, Reisner, Graham, Kendricks) will combine for over 25 catches.
2. Iowa will hold Clay under 100 yards. Zach Brown is the scarier runner to me in this game.
3. Iowa will have 5 sacks in this game. The key will be if they can force fumbles along with the sacks.
4. Iowa will give up a rushing TD for the second consecutive week.
5. Wegher will lead the team in rushing this week.

Spud's Spin: This was the scariest game on the schedule for me all season. To me it was scarier even than OSU because this game is viewed as more winnable. However the more I watched of Wisconsin the less scary this game became. Wisconsin is going to be tough as hell next year. And this will be tough this season. But it seems like as tough as this schedule has been it has also laid out nicely in a strange way. Wisconsin plays almost the same base defenses as Michigan without the safety in the box. I suspect Iowa will see a safety in the box. Wisconsin doesn't have a Donovan Warren, although they do have a Brandon Graham basically. Iowa traditionally shuts down the run and I am not sure that they can against Wisconsin but I am not sure they need to completely stop it just keep it to small chunks and stop it for losses occasionally. What they need to do is continue to be dominant against the pass. Force turnovers and play the field position game. Wisconsin is terrible on special teams and commits stupid penalties. Hopefully this continues on Saturday. I was actually going to predict a loss. I have changed my mind- Iowa 27 Wisconsin 13 no pick 6s for Ricky.